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The race for the top 4

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RUNVS said:
I am sure you can. I am not so sure though as I think they can make it especially since there are really only 5 teams likely to make the top 4.
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Where??

if they want to make it they got to win this week and i cant see it happening with their injuries
 
footy75 said:
Where??

if they want to make it they got to win this week and i cant see it happening with their injuries
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I'm not a punter, but surely you can't have avoided the inundation of bookmakers' ads that accompany every footy game and footy-related show? No doubt any one of them will happily give you odds.
 
Sydney Bloods said:
20 years ago is meaningless, in context of a win. the only thing that influences the result is the current teams.

up until last friday THIS HAWKS TEAM losing to THIS CROWS TEAM would be considered a massive upset no matter where it's played.

after losing to north however, some might be seeing a hawks slide and so not see it that much of an upset. for mine I was simply proven wrong about north this year rather then seeing the beginning of the end of the hawks for 2014, I still see hawks losing to Adelaide as a big upset at this stage.
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People have a habit of focussing on the most immediate event rather than than bigger picture. Hawthorn lost to the roos on the weekend and suddenly our season is in danger and the roos are a shot at the top 4. Meanwhile exactly one week ago North was finished after losing to Brisbane while we had comprehensively beaten the up and coming Suns. The media is like a pair of underpants on a clothes line blowing haphazardly in the wind. If Adelaide win there will be a resounding "I told you so" and deluge of doomsdayers meanwhile if Hawthorn win it will be as if nothing was said. I am quietly confident that the Hawks who have consistently and comprehensively put away teams below them on the ladder all season will continue to do so.
 

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seysearles said:
People have a habit of focussing on the most immediate event rather than than bigger picture. Hawthorn lost to the roos on the weekend and suddenly our season is in danger and the roos are a shot at the top 4. Meanwhile exactly one week ago North was finished after losing to Brisbane while we had comprehensively beaten the up and coming Suns. The media is like a pair of underpants on a clothes line blowing haphazardly in the wind. If Adelaide win there will be a resounding "I told you so" and deluge of doomsdayers meanwhile if Hawthorn win it will be as if nothing was said. I am quietly confident that the Hawks who have consistently and comprehensively put away teams below them on the ladder all season will continue to do so.
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That is spot on BUT

The hawks have a mounting injury toll, a very hard draw to finish off the season, and look tired.
 
I'm not gonna say the hawks will miss the top 4 because unlike their stupid supporters I don't wanna be made to look like an idiot if they do make it, they were quick to jump on the boat an say my swannies wouldn't make the Eight after the first couple of rounds LOL I'd rather Geelong make the 4 rather than hawthorn
 
the big lebowski said:
That is spot on BUT

The hawks have a mounting injury toll, a very hard draw to finish off the season, and look tired.
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Well thats my point.... they only looked tired against the roos. We looked perfectly fine in our 5 wins previous to that. Is it even possible to be in 2nd place and have the highest % in the competition and look tired? We have been taking care of business all season. People are passing judgment on one game in which a myriad of things (some beyond the teams control) would have contributed to the loss.
 
the big lebowski said:
But the injuries seysearles, the injuries..............
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Haven't we had them all season? We have been lauded for keeping on winning despite the injuries. Suddenly the injuries are a factor because we dropped a game to a very good (if not unpredictable) team in North Melbourne.
 
seysearles said:
People have a habit of focussing on the most immediate event rather than than bigger picture. Hawthorn lost to the roos on the weekend and suddenly our season is in danger and the roos are a shot at the top 4. Meanwhile exactly one week ago North was finished after losing to Brisbane while we had comprehensively beaten the up and coming Suns. The media is like a pair of underpants on a clothes line blowing haphazardly in the wind. If Adelaide win there will be a resounding "I told you so" and deluge of doomsdayers meanwhile if Hawthorn win it will be as if nothing was said. I am quietly confident that the Hawks who have consistently and comprehensively put away teams below them on the ladder all season will continue to do so.
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Will the Hawks finish top 4? Probably. Depending on this weekend's result, the game against the Swans could be a battle for top 2, or merely a battle to keep touch with the top 4. Loss would put them in 5th, behind the Cats on points and a loss against the Swans could put them 2 games behind the top 4, equal with the Pies & Roos.

The Crows game really is their make or break game. Lose it and top 4 is unlikely. I would go as far as saying that for the Hawks, it's the most important match of the season.
 
chunkychicken said:
Will the Hawks finish top 4? Probably. Depending on this weekend's result, the game against the Swans could be a battle for top 2, or merely a battle to keep touch with the top 4. Loss would put them in 5th, behind the Cats on points and a loss against the Swans could put them 2 games behind the top 4, equal with the Pies & Roos.

The Crows game really is their make or break game. Lose it and top 4 is unlikely. I would go as far as saying that for the Hawks, it's the most important match of the season.
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The top 4 will be decided imo by "Top.4 derbies" i.e Swans v Port Hawks v Freo etc. These are 8pt swing games. Winning the Sydney, Fremantle and Geelong games are literally twice as important to us than winning the rest.
 
seysearles said:
Haven't we had them all season? We have been lauded for keeping on winning despite the injuries. Suddenly the injuries are a factor because we dropped a game to a very good (if not unpredictable) team in North Melbourne.
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We have had injuries all season and i think done a great job to win as many matches as we have but we haven't been able to get the job done against the better sides.
 

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I cant see the Hawks losing more than a game or 2 from here. We have matched up well on them and besides the Buddy 13 episode the games are never predictable. Rioli got them over the line twice last year with 10mins of brilliance and he missed on friday night. Buddy is no longer there so they couldn't stretch us as much as before. They are still the side they were before our match last week, its 2014 and the competition is as even as it ever has been so a loss to a side who has shown their best is capable isn't a sign of much else to be honest. I still think they are top 2 going forward
 
Danair said:
Has Freo defeated any other team in the top 4?:confused:


EDIT: Geelong
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Be nice to play you guys twice in the regular season every now and then, or if only once at least somewhere other than Sydney. Nine of the last eleven regular season meeting have been at the SCG.

Unfortunately though we may end the regular season with only two top four victories. Geelong are out of the four now and Port may be by the time we play them. I don't think the Hawks will drop out.
 
SA HAWK said:
We have had injuries all season and i think done a great job to win as many matches as we have but we haven't been able to get the job done against the better sides.
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You're presumably over looking Fremantle who we demolished in Rd.4 as a bigger side. Nonetheless I am not sure Adelaide qualifies as a bigger side. They beat Port in a showdown which (much like the North v Haw game is a match fuelled with emotion which changes the game's balance considerably). Otherwise the only notable teams they've beaten are North "Jekyll and Hyde" Melbourne and the Pies. They have also dropped games to Melbourne and Carlton (in Adelaide). I would put them just below Collingwood and equal to Essendon both of whom we beat (the Pies resoundingly).
 
seysearles said:
You're presumably over looking Fremantle who we demolished in Rd.4 as a bigger side. Nonetheless I am not sure Adelaide qualifies as a bigger side. They beat Port in a showdown which (much like the North v Haw game is a match fuelled with emotion which changes the game's balance considerably). Otherwise the only notable teams they've beaten are North "Jekyll and Hyde" Melbourne and the Pies. They have also dropped games to Melbourne and Carlton (in Adelaide). I would put them just below Collingwood and equal to Essendon both of who we beat (the Pies resoundingly).
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Freo were missing Fyfe & Barlow for that game and i am not convinced they are that good yet need to see them play a few top sides before finals to make a call on them.

Crows last 4 home games have been wins against Gold Coast, Collingwood, Port & North all top 8 sides.
 
seysearles said:
The top 4 will be decided imo by "Top.4 derbies" i.e Swans v Port Hawks v Freo etc. These are 8pt swing games. Winning the Sydney, Fremantle and Geelong games are literally twice as important to us than winning the rest.
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Round 17 Adelaide v. Hawthorn
Round 19 North Melbourne v. Geelong
Round 21 Gold Coast v. Port Adelaide

I think these 3 games will play a big part on top of the matches between each other. Tricky matches for the top 4 candidate and if they lose them it could be fatal for top 4 chances.
 

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CharlieMortdecai said:
I'm not a punter, but surely you can't have avoided the inundation of bookmakers' ads that accompany every footy game and footy-related show? No doubt any one of them will happily give you odds.
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i dont mind the punt and ive never seen the option to put money on 'not' to make the 4.

freo/sydney locks

if Hawks get up this week top 2
 
As they said on AFL360 "all roads through Collingwood". Essendon v Collingwood should be a great watch this weekend as should Crows v Hawks. Both the Crows and the Bombers have a good chance and if Adelaide win on Friday night then the pressure is on the Bombers on Sunday. In regards to my team they SHOULD beat the Tigers. Port have improved from last year and the Tigers for whatever reason have gone backwards. Still these games are danger games. The Tigers will be out to spoil our party but we have more to lose than them atm. If we can't beat them (no disrespect) we don't deserve and won't get a top 4 spot. Kangaroos and Cats should both get up.
 
Just finished my latest ladder predictor

Syd 19 wins
Geel 18 wins
Freo 17 wins
Pies 16 wins

Port 15 wins
North 14 wins
Hawks 13 wins
Crows 12 wins

Below is what I though a few rounds ago

Port - 19w 3l
Geelong - 19w 3l
Syd - 18w 4l
Frem - 17w 5l

Pies - 17w 5l
North - 16w 6l
Hawthorn - 12w 10l
Adel - 12w 10l
Click to expand...
 

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