Preview National Draft discussion (Picks 14, 35, 43, 58)

[Tex200]

Yep saw that, still think he will be available at 14. I'm just guessing like everyone else

Yeah absolutely - I just hope we get that dynamic type mid at 14. Nakia would be a great get

 

[Mattrox]

We need an influx of youth - while they are not literally linked (as you've pedantically pointed out), they were probably linked in planning as they version that eventuated of pick shuffle is so much more preferable than not having a second round selection.

I can't believe how this part is so difficult to understand.


Or it isn't and it's a reason to complain about what the club has done.

 

[Danoz]

Of course we have recruited some fantastic talent. I am not saying that we have shit recruiters. I just don't see how the people who have built a list that finished 11th, 14th, 2nd, 11th, 10th can be lauded as brilliant recruiters. And yes I understand that there are a lot more parts that go into a football club and success - like development, coaching, etc - but it all comes down to talent. As much as people on here try and compare us to a geelong at the end of 2006 - nothing could be further from the truth.



Why do I view it like a video game?

Of course you don't know exactly what you're getting each and every time. However - the reason every team in the AFL has a recruiting team is to try and figure it out. Their jobs depend on it. If they fail - they get fired and rightly so.

In no way I am trying to make it out that its easy. Its just that these recruiters are paid to identify the talent. If they get it wrong its their balls on the line.

I just want to add my two cents, not directly aimed at you but just to add to the discussion here.

The AFL (and associated entities) are attempting to make the drafting/recruiting process as mathematical and structured as they possibly can. Introducing statistical measures to the draft camps is a large part of this; kicking/30; marking/30; endurance; speed; agility; jumping; etc. all go into these stats that recruiters use to rank individual players.

Where this comes undone (and differs significantly from video games) is the human element to recruiting. X-factor, mental strength, family, culture, ability to stand up at the highest level, ability to adapt to different working environments, ability to have the pressure of a nation on your shoulders. Recruiters can only get an insight into what a 17yo's human makeup is by talking to them, their family, their underage coaches. By watching them in their natural environments. But this doesn't mean that what everyone says about them is accurate.

These kids barely know anything about themselves. At 17 I was being pressured from every angle into what I should be doing post school, and a lot of what i did after school was based on the pressures I was putting on myself. I can genuinely say I didn't know much about myself until I was closer to 25. These kids are expected to say the right things, do the right things, be the right people at a very young age. Who's to know they aren't lying to themselves when they talk to recruiters?

The other problem is that every potential recruit has different attributes at different levels. Using the three names being bandied about without knowing anything about them, Marchbank, Durdin and Goddard, may all add up to the same statistical number, but +s and -s in different areas. They may also have the exact same things said about them by their families/coaches; all potential leaders, have a tendency to disappear at crucial times, mentally strong etc. Let's pretend one is better at endurance, one better at vertical leap and the third better at agility. Our recruiters need to determine which of the attributes are of most value to us - that's their job. But they also need to dig into the kids. One may speak very well, but is actually a mess inside. Another may be very shy, but turns out to be actually very assertive and mentally strong when in a more comfortable environment. The third may just be a wack-job.

My point is that a lot of the time you can rank individuals based on all the stats, but unless you can work out what is going on inside (which is not always possible) you can't know how they will turn out until much later on. Dayle Garlett is a perfect example of this.

Thats my feeling on why we swapped 10 for 14. The guy we want will not get taken by Geelong / Freo / Richmond / West Coast.

Yet you just accused DABM of doing the same thing?

...

The bit you aren't getting is that the guy we will pick up at pick 14 - will be the exact same guy that we would have got at 10.

The bit you aren't getting is that you know nothing, you are guessing stuff that makes no sense. You are assuming that you, with all your inside knowledge about the draft and years of work scouting the players available - know more than the professionals hired to do exactly that (in real life), that have a proven track record in doing exactly that.

 

[baldandbroke]

Yet you just accused DABM of doing the same thing?

Not quite, I am saying that what the recruiters are doing is on purpose - they swapped 10 for 14/35 based on their knowledge.

What DABM is doing is saying that the recruiters decisions were bordering on reckless - which is ok - but I think that they know more than him or me

 

[Draft Bored]

9 clubs thought Dangerfield wasn't as good as their guy. Most were wrong.

The recruiters have a pretty good track record, why not give them the benefit of the doubt?

Apparently we had Davis and Danger (for two) ranked higher than most other clubs. Turned out OK. Gunston was in our top ten, drafted him later, and he probably would be top ten from that draft.

We'll probably end up with a player we rated in the top few, and would have picked him at 10 or 14. Time will tell whether we're right, but in this context the pick swap is good business.

Agree with what you're saying. Crows have a good record.

I reviewed the 2009 draft in this (or the trade) thread to point out that the pick number isn't everything. Gunston was top 3 in that draft and Talia was top 2. I only have Fyfe above them.

 

[azza77]

Knightmare has Weller now slipping to 15, with us taking Marchbank at 14

If we pass up on Weller I am going to be ****ing fuming...

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Knightmare has Weller now slipping to 15, with us taking Marchbank at 14

If we pass up on Weller I am going to be ****ing fuming...

if we get Marchbank I will be f**king fuming

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Knightmare has Oscar Mcdonald going at pick 37 whilst we take Maynard at 35

 

[Tex200]

Is this the most unsettled 2-15 in recent times ?

 

[AFC979810]

I just want to add my two cents, not directly aimed at you but just to add to the discussion here.

The AFL (and associated entities) are attempting to make the drafting/recruiting process as mathematical and structured as they possibly can. Introducing statistical measures to the draft camps is a large part of this; kicking/30; marking/30; endurance; speed; agility; jumping; etc. all go into these stats that recruiters use to rank individual players.

Where this comes undone (and differs significantly from video games) is the human element to recruiting. X-factor, mental strength, family, culture, ability to stand up at the highest level, ability to adapt to different working environments, ability to have the pressure of a nation on your shoulders. Recruiters can only get an insight into what a 17yo's human makeup is by talking to them, their family, their underage coaches. By watching them in their natural environments. But this doesn't mean that what everyone says about them is accurate.

These kids barely know anything about themselves. At 17 I was being pressured from every angle into what I should be doing post school, and a lot of what i did after school was based on the pressures I was putting on myself. I can genuinely say I didn't know much about myself until I was closer to 25. These kids are expected to say the right things, do the right things, be the right people at a very young age. Who's to know they aren't lying to themselves when they talk to recruiters?

The other problem is that every potential recruit has different attributes at different levels. Using the three names being bandied about without knowing anything about them, Marchbank, Durdin and Goddard, may all add up to the same statistical number, but +s and -s in different areas. They may also have the exact same things said about them by their families/coaches; all potential leaders, have a tendency to disappear at crucial times, mentally strong etc. Let's pretend one is better at endurance, one better at vertical leap and the third better at agility. Our recruiters need to determine which of the attributes are of most value to us - that's their job. But they also need to dig into the kids. One may speak very well, but is actually a mess inside. Another may be very shy, but turns out to be actually very assertive and mentally strong when in a more comfortable environment. The third may just be a wack-job.

My point is that a lot of the time you can rank individuals based on all the stats, but unless you can work out what is going on inside (which is not always possible) you can't know how they will turn out until much later on. Dayle Garlett is a perfect example of this.

Don't disagree with any of this. Good post.

Although your example at the end isn't a good one. Every recruiter knew what they were getting themselves into. He was immensely talented and would have gone top 10 if not for his issues. Hawthorn took a punt on him with a pick in the late 30's because if he turned out it would be a massive massive success - but if he didn't come around all they lost was a delisted player at pick 37 (which with their depth and quality list didnt really matter).

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Is this the most unsettled 2-15 in recent times ?

Peter Wright looks like he's going to slip out the top 10

 

[DJ75]

Knightmare has Oscar Mcdonald going at pick 37 whilst we take Maynard at 35

I know that Knightmare writes some really good and detailed analysis of players.
BUT has anyone reviewed his mock drafts afterwards? Are they even close? Are his predictions on players actually how they turn out?

 

[MyLittleSloaney]

I know that Knightmare writes some really good and detailed analysis of players.
BUT has anyone reviewed his mock drafts afterwards? Are they even close? Are his predictions on players actually how they turn out?

Hard to say as he always updates his phantoms all the way up to the draft. Once Quayle and twomeys drafts are in knightmare will settle his list. So hard to gauge how accurate his earlier mocks are.

 

[azza77]

if we get Marchbank I will be f**king fuming

Knightmare has Oscar Mcdonald going at pick 37 whilst we take Maynard at 35

I was PMing dayton about this and would be interesting if members here posted how they would like the draft to unfold. So ill answer a few of these quoted posts below with what Im looking for in this draft. (Take note, this is just personal opinion. I am no export nor claiming to be, so play nice). Encourage others to similarly list their planned draft

14 - Outside Mid Type:
- Has to be Weller IF he's available, absolutely love the look of this kid. Just has it all, and especially the pace/elite kicking combo.
- If not then I am more than happy to jump the gun on Menadue at 14. No, I am not jumping on the "bandwagon," this kid just reaks of Brodie Smith to me and Sando has always said he'd pretty much give his left nut for another Brodie (but wouldn't we all). Elite acceleration AND top end speed, elite kicking skills AND kicking technique which should hold him in good stead. Good endurance base too (top 10 in 3km time trial), jaw dropping side step, has the x-factor/game changing ability as reported by many and is also very strong overhead for someone his size. 188cm is a handy size to have for someone with his skillset, only further boosts his versatility. Weaknesses so far? Inconsistency and size are his biggest two atm, but how easily both of these could be fixed with a little added bulk on his frame and a decent pre-season under his belt. This kid just has too many tools at his disposal that we are both crying out for and could work with.
- Would be happy with Gartlett also, think people here are a little harsh on him. Reckon he looks a very good outside mid prospect but if we decide to reach for an outside mid, would much rather it be Menadue.

Happy to also take Goddard here at this pick if the club chooses to do so. The only reason I haven't is that I see a host of other capable talls available at our later picks, enabling us to choose and elite outside mid with our first pick.

STAY AWAY: Personally, I really dont like the looks of Ahern/Duggan. Seem to have good skill sets, but are poor decision makers in imo and are lacking in the top end speed category. Also not impressed by Marchbank

35 - KPP: Oscar MacDonald
- Huge wraps on this kid's defensive game so it's hard to see why he is not off the board earlier. If he can already shut down the elite forwards in his age group then he is well and truly on the right track. Has become a bit of a BF favourite around here and another "bandwagon" pick so to speak, but there are 2 things that stand out to me here, 1) his work ethic and mindset is supposedly miles ahead of most and I think this should hold him in good stead and 2) he has shown the ability to go forward at times.

- Other options here? Like the look Keitel if he also slides as a KPP. THis stage of the draft is already getting hard, considering how much the top 20 picks are changing around on a weekly basis. Knightmare has us taking Maynard here..... YUCK. If we decide to go tall in the first round, Voijo-Rainbow is a decent prospect at this pick and something we are looking for in terms of skillset. I think Dean Gore has something to work with also. He is raw, but the potential is certainly there.

STAY AWAY: Wigg/Cavka types. Cavka excels in endurance, but lacks pace. Big no no. Already have too many Wigg types on our list, Crows supposedly aren't into him either. Still way too early to take a Glenn type as well IMO.

43 - KPP: Keenan Ramsey
- It is no secret that our club is seriously lacking in some promising KPPs at this point in time, especially KPDs. I reckon this guy would well and truly be the best available KPP at this stage of the draft with the only knock on him being his one eye situation. Expert scouts have said that this seems to prove no problem for him, and that it actually makes him use his head more than most. As a result of this, he has great vision and asses a larger portion of the playing field when looking for options. Agile for his size and a good user of the ball too by all reports. Like MacDonald, has shown that he can be a threat when played forward at times. Would be absolutely stoked if we could wrap up 2 promising KPPs in Ramsey and Macdonald. Like I have said, great 1v1 defenders with a good enough rebounding ability and also the capacity to play forward, provides us with some great prospects to work with and hopefully plug some holes in our list.

Knightmare has us taking Ramsey here, and this is literally the ONLY pick I actually agree with him on, apart from Goddard at 14 who I wouldnt be disappointed with either. Paige has us taking Goodyear, a good "all round midfielder"... YUCK also. Have so many of those on our list as it is. Other options around this mark? Your guess is as good as mine. Ramsey just sticks our like a sore thumb at this stage for me, and also prevents port from taking him at 57 before our pick at 59 (No, this pick isnt purely to get back at port. I rate him and honestly cant see him sliding to 57, but if he's there I would bet on Port selecting him).

59 - The Renowned Caleb Daniel
I am choosing to select him for 1 reason really. The chances of pick 59 turning into an AFL standard player this late in the draft are very slim.... As a complete package, Daniel is said to have greater skills than almost the whole draft pool, it is just his height that seriously lets him down. So, why not select the player with the far superior skills this late in the draft. It really isn't that much of a gamble already having 3 earlier picks in the draft and plus, he just seems way too good to pass up, or allow through to the rookie draft and miss out on. It is highly unlikely, but what if he has a late growth spurt and hits 171ish cm? Could very well have the next Brent Harvey on our hands, it is more than worth the punt.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I was PMing dayton about this and would be interesting if members here posted how they would like the draft to unfold. So ill answer a few of these quoted posts below with what Im looking for in this draft. (Take note, this is just personal opinion. I am no export nor claiming to be, so play nice). Encourage others to similarly list their planned draft

14 - Outside Mid Type:
- Has to be Weller IF he's available, absolutely love the look of this kid. Just has it all, and especially the pace/elite kicking combo.
- If not then I am more than happy to jump the gun on Menadue at 14. No, I am not jumping on the "bandwagon," this kid just reaks of Brodie Smith to me and Sando has always said he'd pretty much give his left nut for another Brodie (but wouldn't we all). Elite acceleration AND top end speed, elite kicking skills AND kicking technique which should hold him in good stead. Good endurance base too (top 10 in 3km time trial), jaw dropping side step, has the x-factor/game changing ability as reported by many and is also very strong overhead for someone his size. 188cm is a handy size to have for someone with his skillset, only further boosts his versatility. Weaknesses so far? Inconsistency and size are his biggest two atm, but how easily both of these could be fixed with a little added bulk on his frame and a decent pre-season under his belt. This kid just has too many tools at his disposal that we are both crying out for and could work with.
- Would be happy with Gartlett also, think people here are a little harsh on him. Reckon he looks a very good outside mid prospect but if we decide to reach for an outside mid, would much rather it be Menadue.

Happy to also take Goddard here at this pick if the club chooses to do so. The only reason I haven't is that I see a host of other capable talls available at our later picks, enabling us to choose and elite outside mid with our first pick.

STAY AWAY: Personally, I really dont like the looks of Ahern/Duggan. Seem to have good skill sets, but are poor decision makers in imo and are lacking in the top end speed category. Also not impressed by Marchbank

35 - KPP: Oscar MacDonald
- Huge wraps on this kid's defensive game so it's hard to see why he is not off the board earlier. If he can already shut down the elite forwards in his age group then he is well and truly on the right track. Has become a bit of a BF favourite around here and another "bandwagon" pick so to speak, but there are 2 things that stand out to me here, 1) his work ethic and mindset is supposedly miles ahead of most and I think this should hold him in good stead and 2) he has shown the ability to go forward at times.

- Other options here? Like the look Keitel if he also slides as a KPP. THis stage of the draft is already getting hard, considering how much the top 20 picks are changing around on a weekly basis. Knightmare has us taking Maynard here..... YUCK. If we decide to go tall in the first round, Voijo-Rainbow is a decent prospect at this pick and something we are looking for in terms of skillset. I think Dean Gore has something to work with also. He is raw, but the potential is certainly there.

STAY AWAY: Wigg/Cavka types. Cavka excels in endurance, but lacks pace. Big no no. Already have too many Wigg types on our list, Crows supposedly aren't into him either. Still way too early to take a Glenn type as well IMO.

43 - KPP: Keenan Ramsey
- It is no secret that our club is seriously lacking in some promising KPPs at this point in time, especially KPDs. I reckon this guy would well and truly be the best available KPP at this stage of the draft with the only knock on him being his one eye situation. Expert scouts have said that this seems to prove no problem for him, and that it actually makes him use his head more than most. As a result of this, he has great vision and asses a larger portion of the playing field when looking for options. Agile for his size and a good user of the ball too by all reports. Like MacDonald, has shown that he can be a threat when played forward at times. Would be absolutely stoked if we could wrap up 2 promising KPPs in Ramsey and Macdonald. Like I have said, great 1v1 defenders with a good enough rebounding ability and also the capacity to play forward, provides us with some great prospects to work with and hopefully plug some holes in our list.

Knightmare has us taking Ramsey here, and this is literally the ONLY pick I actually agree with him on, apart from Goddard at 14 who I wouldnt be disappointed with either. Paige has us taking Goodyear, a good "all round midfielder"... YUCK also. Have so many of those on our list as it is. Other options around this mark? Your guess is as good as mine. Ramsey just sticks our like a sore thumb at this stage for me, and also prevents port from taking him at 57 before our pick at 59 (No, this pick isnt purely to get back at port. I rate him and honestly cant see him sliding to 57, but if he's there I would bet on Port selecting him).

59 - The Renowned Caleb Daniel
I am choosing to select him for 1 reason really. The chances of pick 59 turning into an AFL standard player this late in the draft are very slim.... As a complete package, Daniel is said to have greater skills than almost the whole draft pool, it is just his height that seriously lets him down. So, why not select the player with the far superior skills this late in the draft. It really isn't that much of a gamble already having 3 earlier picks in the draft and plus, he just seems way too good to pass up, or allow through to the rookie draft and miss out on. It is highly unlikely, but what if he has a late growth spurt and hits 171ish cm? Could very well have the next Brent Harvey on our hands, it is more than worth the punt.

In terms with Menadue. He can play anywhere really , has x-factor , speed , endurance. He can play like Brodie and Isaac Smith. I would like De Goey but he would be picked ahead of our pick. Bad feeling we will get Durdin

 

[MRB37]

You'd have thought Lewis Taylor winning the Rising Star award would put Caleb Daniel back on the radar for some teams. 6cm difference between the two enough to turn you off a high skilled player? If you're picking in Round 4, what do you have to lose? Really hope we grab him.

 

[Canberra Based Crow]

You'd have thought Lewis Taylor winning the Rising Star award would put Caleb Daniel back on the radar for some teams. 6cm difference between the two enough to turn you off a high skilled player? If you're picking in Round 4, what do you have to lose? Really hope we grab him.

Me too.

Great summary azza77!

 

[baldandbroke]

Hard to say as he always updates his phantoms all the way up to the draft. Once Quayle and twomeys drafts are in knightmare will settle his list. So hard to gauge how accurate his earlier mocks are.

Pretty sure Knightmare's phantom draft becomes like the other phantom drafts in that as we close to kick-off it is more a reflection of inside info. Emma Quayle seems to know who will pick whom in the first couple of rounds with about 80% accuracy - I think Knightmare updates his picks with that in mind

 

[Danoz]

Not quite, I am saying that what the recruiters are doing is on purpose - they swapped 10 for 14/35 based on their knowledge.

What DABM is doing is saying that the recruiters decisions were bordering on reckless - which is ok - but I think that they know more than him or me

Sorry to harp on this, but this is not what you said initially.

This is you stating as fact: "The bit you aren't getting is that the guy we will pick up at pick 14 - will be the exact same guy that we would have got at 10."

Then you say this: "You are assuming that you, with all your inside knowledge about the draft and years of work scouting the players available - know more than the professionals hired to do exactly that (in real life), that have a proven track record in doing exactly that."

However both are guesses. You know as much about the Crows recruitment thoughts as DABM does.

Anyway, we can drop this now.

Don't disagree with any of this. Good post.

Although your example at the end isn't a good one. Every recruiter knew what they were getting themselves into. He was immensely talented and would have gone top 10 if not for his issues. Hawthorn took a punt on him with a pick in the late 30's because if he turned out it would be a massive massive success - but if he didn't come around all they lost was a delisted player at pick 37 (which with their depth and quality list didnt really matter).

You're right and wrong, and I'm right and wrong. I didn't explain that last sentence very well. Garlett is a perfect example of recruiters having a pretty good idea of what they were getting themselves into. Someone like Angwin (while I haven't read anything to say whether he had issues) appears to have been a good example of not digging deep enough. Yes I know the whole Melb Private school mummy/daddy's boys don't work in Adelaide story.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Is this the most unsettled 2-15 in recent times ?

I'd say so. Petracca is a certainty at #1 but then the order is anyone's guess so expect to see some bolters and sliders. Really hoping Cockatoo is there at our pick but I would also be happy with Weller or Goddard.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Btw Harvey is between 168 and 172cm (depending on sources) and is set to reach 400 games. If Caleb is there at #59 then it is almost a no-brainer IMO. Heck, I'd even take a punt at #35.

 

[Draft Bored]

I was PMing dayton about this and would be interesting if members here posted how they would like the draft to unfold. So ill answer a few of these quoted posts below with what Im looking for in this draft. (Take note, this is just personal opinion. I am no export nor claiming to be, so play nice). Encourage others to similarly list their planned draft

14 - Outside Mid Type:
- Has to be Weller IF he's available, absolutely love the look of this kid. Just has it all, and especially the pace/elite kicking combo.
- If not then I am more than happy to jump the gun on Menadue at 14. No, I am not jumping on the "bandwagon," this kid just reaks of Brodie Smith to me and Sando has always said he'd pretty much give his left nut for another Brodie (but wouldn't we all). Elite acceleration AND top end speed, elite kicking skills AND kicking technique which should hold him in good stead. Good endurance base too (top 10 in 3km time trial), jaw dropping side step, has the x-factor/game changing ability as reported by many and is also very strong overhead for someone his size. 188cm is a handy size to have for someone with his skillset, only further boosts his versatility. Weaknesses so far? Inconsistency and size are his biggest two atm, but how easily both of these could be fixed with a little added bulk on his frame and a decent pre-season under his belt. This kid just has too many tools at his disposal that we are both crying out for and could work with.
- Would be happy with Gartlett also, think people here are a little harsh on him. Reckon he looks a very good outside mid prospect but if we decide to reach for an outside mid, would much rather it be Menadue.

Happy to also take Goddard here at this pick if the club chooses to do so. The only reason I haven't is that I see a host of other capable talls available at our later picks, enabling us to choose and elite outside mid with our first pick.

STAY AWAY: Personally, I really dont like the looks of Ahern/Duggan. Seem to have good skill sets, but are poor decision makers in imo and are lacking in the top end speed category. Also not impressed by Marchbank

35 - KPP: Oscar MacDonald
- Huge wraps on this kid's defensive game so it's hard to see why he is not off the board earlier. If he can already shut down the elite forwards in his age group then he is well and truly on the right track. Has become a bit of a BF favourite around here and another "bandwagon" pick so to speak, but there are 2 things that stand out to me here, 1) his work ethic and mindset is supposedly miles ahead of most and I think this should hold him in good stead and 2) he has shown the ability to go forward at times.

- Other options here? Like the look Keitel if he also slides as a KPP. THis stage of the draft is already getting hard, considering how much the top 20 picks are changing around on a weekly basis. Knightmare has us taking Maynard here..... YUCK. If we decide to go tall in the first round, Voijo-Rainbow is a decent prospect at this pick and something we are looking for in terms of skillset. I think Dean Gore has something to work with also. He is raw, but the potential is certainly there.

STAY AWAY: Wigg/Cavka types. Cavka excels in endurance, but lacks pace. Big no no. Already have too many Wigg types on our list, Crows supposedly aren't into him either. Still way too early to take a Glenn type as well IMO.

43 - KPP: Keenan Ramsey
- It is no secret that our club is seriously lacking in some promising KPPs at this point in time, especially KPDs. I reckon this guy would well and truly be the best available KPP at this stage of the draft with the only knock on him being his one eye situation. Expert scouts have said that this seems to prove no problem for him, and that it actually makes him use his head more than most. As a result of this, he has great vision and asses a larger portion of the playing field when looking for options. Agile for his size and a good user of the ball too by all reports. Like MacDonald, has shown that he can be a threat when played forward at times. Would be absolutely stoked if we could wrap up 2 promising KPPs in Ramsey and Macdonald. Like I have said, great 1v1 defenders with a good enough rebounding ability and also the capacity to play forward, provides us with some great prospects to work with and hopefully plug some holes in our list.

Knightmare has us taking Ramsey here, and this is literally the ONLY pick I actually agree with him on, apart from Goddard at 14 who I wouldnt be disappointed with either. Paige has us taking Goodyear, a good "all round midfielder"... YUCK also. Have so many of those on our list as it is. Other options around this mark? Your guess is as good as mine. Ramsey just sticks our like a sore thumb at this stage for me, and also prevents port from taking him at 57 before our pick at 59 (No, this pick isnt purely to get back at port. I rate him and honestly cant see him sliding to 57, but if he's there I would bet on Port selecting him).

59 - The Renowned Caleb Daniel
I am choosing to select him for 1 reason really. The chances of pick 59 turning into an AFL standard player this late in the draft are very slim.... As a complete package, Daniel is said to have greater skills than almost the whole draft pool, it is just his height that seriously lets him down. So, why not select the player with the far superior skills this late in the draft. It really isn't that much of a gamble already having 3 earlier picks in the draft and plus, he just seems way too good to pass up, or allow through to the rookie draft and miss out on. It is highly unlikely, but what if he has a late growth spurt and hits 171ish cm? Could very well have the next Brent Harvey on our hands, it is more than worth the punt.

Cheers for the detailed writeup! I hope you're right on our first pick. The only one I'm not sold on at the national draft level is Daniel, definitely would rookie him though but like you said it probably doesn't really matter that late in the draft (however Port intend to draft 3 players and 2/3 of their picks are after 59, their first at 57).

How will you feel if Weller goes at 10, 11, 12 or 13?

 

[baldandbroke]

I think I said somewhere else that I'd go Cockatoo with #14, and Daniels with #35 - and got many responses along the line of "thank F*CK you aren't our recruiter!"

I just think that the extra defender we are all craving will come via the rookie draft - they just seem to take time to shine through those types of guys, so they aren't as highly rated as the mid-fielder / forwards.

If we can get to Daniels before Port do, I reckon we will get him ... so maybe 43 is a better guess.

 

[Draft Bored]

I just think that the extra defender we are all craving will come via the rookie draft.

I think it will come in the form of Phil Davis next year. Any KPD we draft isn't getting a game this year anyway.

 

[boffo]

I don't get this whole "too short" thing with Caleb Daniel.

The issues I see with lack of height are:

1. may be too easily out-marked. But this is not too big an issue for a midfielder/creative crumbing forward (would be fatal for a defender or KPF).

2. may be too light and too easily brushed aside in the contest (think Mackay). But that hasn't been the case in the SANFL playing against men.

3. may be too easily injured.

Yes, he's short, but I don't think he is fragile. With his clean ball handling, elusiveness, creativity, reasonable pace and elite disposal efficiency I reckon he'll play a lot of games for whoever picks him up.

Am I missing something in the "too small for AFL" argument?