Opinion Chris Scott's coaching - Part 1 [closed, see Part II]

[Lana]

There is next to nothing to gain from comparing on sides disposal efficiency over a season with another unless there is a massive discrepancy. Too many things effect it like kick to handball ratio, contested to uncontested ratio and metres gained per disposal to make the disposal efficiency comparable.

 

[catempire]

Okay put it this way: if you want to maximise your disposal efficiency, you can reduce your chances of playing good footy.

Just eye-balling it, there does seem to be some correlation between DE% and success:

 

[cats2rise]

I hope Bartel isn't playing next year otherwise for mine that'd be an indicator that we're in serious trouble anyway.

I am putting it out there now.... Those asking for anyone or everyone over 30 to retire or be moved on for next season are not allowed to jump up and down screaming "We have no depth, we have no depth!" or wondering where all the "cool heads" have gone.

 

[SJ]

Just eye-balling it, there does seem to be some correlation between DE% and success:

View attachment 165930

Yes, but effectiveness of disposals means very little without taking into account the context of:
- pressure received by ball disposer
- location on the ground of disposer
- pressure received by ball receiver
- location on the ground of receiver

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Just eye-balling it, there does seem to be some correlation between DE% and success:

View attachment 165930

On what SJ is saying about DE% can be partly explained by this.



Now I used averages not aggregate to account for our 1 fewer game but despite being the 2nd best disposer of the footy, we're below average in getting the ball inside 50 and from games I've been at, particularly in the 2nd half of the season we've been slower and more patient with our ball movement, which will improve our efficiency of disposal as we chip it around sideway and backwards and then eventually kick down the line.

 

[catempire]

Yes, but effectiveness of disposals means very little without taking into account the context of:
- pressure received by ball disposer
- location on the ground of disposer
- pressure received by ball receiver
- location on the ground of receiver

Success is agnostic to those factors.

 

[SJ]

Success is agnostic to those factors.

I'd much rather 80% disposal effectiveness with all disposals going 40 metres forward, from a position of pressure to no pressure, than I would 100% effectiveness going 40 metres backwards from a position of no pressure to pressure!

 

[catempire]

I'd much rather 80% disposal effectiveness with all disposals going 40 metres forward, from a position of pressure to no pressure, than I would 100% effectiveness going 40 metres backwards from a position of no pressure to pressure!

Of course. All I'm saying is I'd rather 75% ED than 69%, ceteris paribus.

 

[cats2rise]

I could watch you two go back and forth all day.

Its like poetry in motion.

 

[BlightysCats]

I am putting it out there now.... Those asking for anyone or everyone over 30 to retire or be moved on for next season are not allowed to jump up and down screaming "We have no depth, we have no depth!" or wondering where all the "cool heads" have gone.

I'm not saying that. I think Bartel, Stokes, Rivers (who retired today), and maybe Kelly are done. Johnson, Enright, Mackie, and Lonergan deserve at least one more season.

 

[cats2rise]

I'm not saying that. I think Bartel, Stokes, Rivers (who retired today), and maybe Kelly are done. Johnson, Enright, Mackie, and Lonergan deserve at least one more season.

Sorry, response was not directed at you, but the point stands regardless!

 

[geelong_crazy26]

The main thing I've been saying all along is that Scott hasn't adapted to the new trends and tactics of footy since 2011. He is just trying to give us exactly the same structure as we had then - he's obsessed with a tall forward line when all the top teams have mid/small forward lines that are dynamic fast and put huge amounts of forward line pressure on. He's also obsessed with a slow tall back line when again all the top teams have fast athletic rebounding defences and he hasn't got us a single decent ruckman in 3 years. Our performance against StKilda was absolutely dismal especially considering they had Armitage and Dempster out, it was just another case of Scott being outcoached which is becoming too regular an occurrence in big important games. It doesn't matter who we get in the trade period we'll never get close to having the ultimate success again until we wake up to ourselves as a club and get a new direction and new coach.

Mate there are a number of things that are just wrong with this post.

1."Scott hasn't adapted to the new trends and tactics of footy since 2011" The 2 big differences between 2011 and 2015 are that in 2015 more scores come from turnovers than clearances and sides are trying to keep possession of the ball via short kicking .With regards to scoring from turnovers Scott not only has adapted to this but he was the architect of this and lead the way . With the short kicking its something we don't do well , were very much a side that either runs and carries the ball or we bomb it long , however I don't believe this is the game plan I think its more a case of our players not being capable of effectively pulling of short passes often enough.

2."he's obsessed with a tall forward line when all the top teams have mid/small forward lines" - 100% false , with the exception of 1 game this year we have only played 2 tall forwards which is what almost every other side does. Hawthorn often play 3 tall forwards .

3."He's also obsessed with a slow tall back line when again all the top teams have fast athletic rebounding defences" our defence is no taller than Hawthorns , they play 3 tall defenders almost every week .We do have a slow defence but that's not by choice , we just don't have 6 good fast defenders on our list.

4."he hasn't got us a single decent ruckman in 3 years" I suggest you point your figure at wells with regards to this one , why cant he find a good ruckman in the draft ? the only way we can get a good ruckman via a trade is to give up our 1st round pick and another good player , the club hasn't been willing to do this and instead have taken risks with our 2nd round pick on injury prone players.

5."it was just another case of Scott being outcoached" seems that every time we lose its because Scott was outcoached , does this apply to other coaches as well ? surely when other coaches lose its because they are being outcoached as well .Given that Scott has the best win/loss record of any coach in the AFL than he must of been outcoached less often than any other coach right ???

The simple fact is that we are a side on the rebuild/transition who doesn't have enough good players in the midfield .As soon as we lose one of our better midfielders we are in massive trouble .If Geelong doesn't have Caddy and Duncan playing than we are in trouble no matter who is coaching us.

 

[BlightysCats]

With regards to scoring from turnovers Scott not only has adapted to this but he was the architect of this and lead the way

He wasn't the architect Malthouse's forward press and Clarko's cluster were both based on that principle ie. Scoring from forcing turnovers.

100% false , with the exception of 1 game this year we have only played 2 tall forwards which is what almost every other side does. Hawthorn often play 3 tall forwards .

Hawthorn play Gunston and Roughhead as 'tall' forwards but both are only 193cm and are extremely athletic and versatile but most of the time they just play Gunston up there alone with a bunch of smalls and midsize players like Cyril, Breust, Puopolo, surrounding him, where as we have played Tom Hawkins, Walker, and Kersten most of the year up forward and two of them are 196/7 cm respectively and weigh 100 kgs or more meaning they're pretty hopeless once the ball hits the ground and provide next to no forward pressure.

seems that every time we lose its because Scott was outcoached , does this apply to other coaches as well ? surely when other coaches lose its because they are being outcoached as well

When you lose to Melbourne without Hogan and St Kilda without Armitage and Dempster with nothing to play for then something's gone wrong and that is the players not showing intensity or the discipline to stick to the game-plan which is the coaches fault whether you want to admit it or not. Obviously we've simply been beaten by better sides this year at times but we've also lost games we should've won with finals on the line playing terrible footy lacking discipline and direction.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I'm not saying that. I think Bartel, Stokes, Rivers (who retired today), and maybe Kelly are done. Johnson, Enright, Mackie, and Lonergan deserve at least one more season.

And I think of that first group 1 will survive, purely based on other outs from the club.

They can't all go at once and if you take 3 of those and then add Hmac, Simpson, Hartman and Blease well we've already arrived at 7 senior list spots available. What about Cowan? Enright is no certainty to want another year either. We have to be mindful that this draft appears to be thin, we don't want too many picks this year.

 

[BlightysCats]

And I think of that first group 1 will survive, purely based on other outs from the club.

They can't all go at once and if you take 3 of those and then add Hmac, Simpson, Hartman and Blease well we've already arrived at 7 senior list spots available. What about Cowan? Enright is no certainty to want another year either. We have to be mindful that this draft appears to be thin, we don't want too many picks this year.

Well if we get Danger, Selwood, Henderson, and I presume we're in the market for a ruckman as well then that's already 4 spots taken plus I'd keep Cowan for another year. Also we already seem resigned to the fact we're giving up our 1st draft pick for Henderson meaning I doubt we'll be very active in the draft anyway.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Well if we get Danger, Selwood, Henderson, and I presume we're in the market for a ruckman as well then that's already 4 spots taken plus I'd keep Cowan for another year. Also we already seem resigned to the fact we're giving up our 1st draft pick for Henderson meaning I doubt we'll be very active in the draft anyway.

Well someone can feel free to correct me if I'm wrong but we must make 3 changes to the list via the draft. I'd suspect if we keep Cowan p rookie list could be possible so there's another list spot. Factor in that to get Dangerfield we may have to trade, so a player and/or picks could go for that as well.

If we trade for Dangerfield, Henderson and then possibly a ruck and still get rid of Kelly and Bartel along with Rivers and Stokes then I feel our 3rd or 4th pick could be quite late and in a weak draft year I'd rather keep one of those two for another year.

 

[Leeds17]

5."it was just another case of Scott being outcoached" seems that every time we lose its because Scott was outcoached , does this apply to other coaches as well ? surely when other coaches lose its because they are being outcoached as well .Given that Scott has the best win/loss record of any coach in the AFL than he must of been outcoached less often than any other coach right ???

The simple fact is that we are a side on the rebuild/transition who doesn't have enough good players in the midfield .As soon as we lose one of our better midfielders we are in massive trouble .If Geelong doesn't have Caddy and Duncan playing than we are in trouble no matter who is coaching us.

Scotty should maybe stop saying our best is still good enough to challendge any one.

 

[BlightysCats]

If we trade for Dangerfield and still get rid of Kelly and Bartel along with Rivers and Stokes

I'd keep Kelly if he wants to stay as from what I've seen he's still a contested animal, but I've heard through 'sources' that he doesn't want to go around again unfortunately. Perhaps we could keep Bartel on the condition he actually shows some intensity at the contest instead of on the catwalk.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I'd keep Kelly if he wants to stay as from what I've seen he's still a contested animal, but I've heard through 'sources' that he doesn't want to go around again unfortunately. Perhaps we could keep Bartel on the condition he actually shows some intensity at the contest instead of on the catwalk.

See Blighty we've been over this and you were shot down for it last week. Bartel is not nor has he ever been soft. He's the one I'd keep out of the 4 and on the proviso he does not play back of centre.

 

[BlightysCats]

See Blighty we've been over this and you were shot down for it last week. Bartel is not nor has he ever been soft. He's the one I'd keep out of the 4 and on the proviso he does not play back of centre.

Never shot down, some amoeba brains disagreed with me only to then watch Bartel go out on the weekend and completely prove my point.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Never shot down, some amoeba brains disagreed with me only to then watch Bartel go out on the weekend and completely prove my point.

He had a poor game. So did Lonergan. Enright had 6 kicked on him from Cyril the week before. We need to stop overreacting as soon as a veteran plays a bad game, Blind Freddie can see why Bartel is playing poorly, for some stupid reason Scott has him in the back half. God only knows why. **** after the 2014 finals series many wanted Kelly axed for his performances as a small defender.

Collingwood aren't a fast side playing on a fast deck that is Etihad, with Caddy likely out Bartel won't be in a poor position for himself, he'll be in the midfield where he belongs and where we'll need him.

As a midfielder Bartel still has a place at this club, a similar argument could be made for Kelly.

 

[Cataholic]

Never shot down, some amoeba brains disagreed with me only to then watch Bartel go out on the weekend and completely prove my point.

Disagreeing with you classifies one as an 'amoeba brain' ??

And whether you're right or wrong there's no need to insult and offend people for a differing point of view.

I'm sure you're capable of carrying a sensible discussion without resorting to that.

 

[BlightysCats]

Disagreeing with you classifies one as an 'amoeba brain' ??

And whether you're right or wrong there's no need to insult and offend people for a differing point of view.

I'm sure you're capable of carrying a sensible discussion without resorting to that.

Possibly, you could be right

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Scotty should maybe stop saying our best is still good enough to challendge any one.

seriously that's a concern of yours ? Chris Scott saying in his press conferences that our best is good enough to beat anyone has no impact at all on our performances.

Scott has also said a number of times that we need to improve to match it with the best sides .But at the end of the day what he says in his press conferences has no impact as it is directed at the fans , not the players .

 

[BlightysCats]

As a midfielder Bartel still has a place at this club, a similar argument could be made for Kelly.

I agree with Kelly staying but as I said I have it on fairly good authority that he most likely doesn't want to play on next year.