2016 US Presidential Election - Trump vs Clinton? - Part 1

[The Punter]

Abstract notions like what Trump's stance is on foreign policy matter little to families who have fallen into despair and seen relatives die prematurely as a result.

Abstract notions? It's most of the job description of a US President. This is where the rubber hits the road.

I don't dispute the statistics about what is happening in many large sections of America, but if there was someone serious out there with a solution to those problems Trump would find the going a lot tougher. Instead he gets to campaign against "values candidates" who are too busy trying to prove who has the most outrageous thing to say. In that contest Trump has home court advantage.

It all boils down to one root cause: the brokenness of the American Political and Governmental System.

 

[coerced]

Dunno about the Putin comparison but I do agree with the wider post.

That image of New England Townies in Pats merchandise and work boots who swear a lot is telling.

These are the people whose family is falling victim to the opiate epidemic,they know that relatively speaking their Dads had it better, they know their kids are never going to an expensive college 60 miles away in Boston and crucially they know both major parties have sold them out before and will do it again.

These are the people who hate the establishment because it hates them. And they know at a visceral level the establishment hates and is terrified by Trump.

He says he'll give them real jobs and he'll stick up for them against an elite that hates them.

It's a compelling electoral message.

I only make the Putin comparison broadly - Putin remains popular because no one is dying en masse anymore, he keeps the heat on, and keeps the idea of Russia secure. People outside Russia don't understand why he is popular, but they forget the demographic collapse that happened in the 90s when Russia went full neoliberal.

People seem unable to understand Trump's popularity in the same vein. Pigeonholing him as an consequence of xenophobia or bigotry misses mark, but it makes it easier for people to mentally write him off as a short-term phenomenon. Unless the situation seriously improves in the US, Trump and his political descendants aren't going away.

 

[coerced]

Abstract notions? It's most of the job description of a US President. This is where the rubber hits the road.

It's not remotely the most important thing the average US voter looks for in a presidential candidate.

I don't dispute the statistics about what is happening in many large sections of America, but if there was someone serious out there with a solution to those problems Trump would find the going a lot tougher. Instead he gets to campaign against "values candidates" who are too busy trying to prove who has the most outrageous thing to say. In that contest Trump has home court advantage.

Was Jeb Bush not a serious candidate?

It all boils down to one root cause: the brokenness of the American Political and Governmental System.

Of that there is no question. But it also one of the dominant economic orthodoxy, neoliberalism, being an utter failure for everyone but the elite. Trump may be of the elite, but when he talks about ending free trade deals with China, or breaking up insurance company monopolies, he is speaking the language of the left.

If you want a (very loose) American comparison, think of a vulgar Teddy Roosevelt.

 

[MaddAdam]

Foreign policy elections are a rarity. 2004 was one. 1980 to an extent.

 

[Forward Press]

Iraq is done and Afghanistan is largely forgotten. Foreign policy I suspect is well down on the list of priorities for the average voter.

This election (pending something like a 9/11 happening) will be fought on the economy.

 

[MaddAdam]

Iraq is done and Afghanistan is largely forgotten. Foreign policy I suspect is well down on the list of priorities for the average voter.

This election (pending something like a 9/11 happening) will be fought on the economy.

Iraq is not done - US forces are fighting there on a daily basis - and Afghanistan certainly is ongoing and probably not forgotten by the 27,000 wounded there. Given 2.5 odd million Americans served in Iraq or Afghainstan, veteran's issues are and will become more of an issue in this and coming elections.

That's a very different beats from voting on foreign policy though agreed. There's no groundswell of Americans wanting to puts on IEDs in Syria for example. The economy, as you say, will be a primary issue. I think also, and this is an interesting one, this election also has a very strong element of class.

Class has always been a huge issue in American life, despite myths to the contrary.

In the same way, it is actually not that easy to whip up foreign war spirit in the US, the electorate is by nature isolationist. Hence the framing of everything now as "security".

 

[MaddAdam]

Trump also reminds me of Boris Johnson medusala

Often dismissed as a clownish figure early on, always ruthless and highly intelligent, and experts in parlaying their public persona into political capital.

 

[medusala]

Trump also reminds me of Boris Johnson medusala

Often dismissed as a clownish figure early on, always ruthless and highly intelligent, and experts in parlaying their public persona into political capital.

Boris is very quick on his feet. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Trump destroyed Clinton in a debate. He has the balls to call her corrupt rather than just skirt around it. Presumably he will go on and on about how he has funded his own campaign and isn't a Wall Streets puppet like others are.

But it also one of the dominant economic orthodoxy, neoliberalism, being an utter failure for everyone but the elite..

lol neoliberalism! As if large deficits, Obamacare and printing money have anything in common with neoliberalism.

There is an obvious reason why the 1% (.01%) has done so well under Obama. Its called the Fed.

 

[JackNah_8]

I can't wait to see Trump v Hilary debate.

This is one crazy election, no one gave Trump a chance from the start, now he has a good lead.

 

[TheMightyEagles]

Romney has now come out and thrown some mud at Trump. At what stage will the GOP accept Trump as their candidate and get behind him? Surely they will need to give up the attacks if he wins big on Super Tuesday.

 

[smokingjacket]

Matt Taibbi gets a hell of a lot right here IMO

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224

What Trump understands better than his opponents is that NASCAR America, WWE America, always loves seeing the preening self-proclaimed good guy get whacked with a chair.

So many good lines in that bit but this, this, is perfection.

 

[smokingjacket]

People seem unable to understand Trump's popularity in the same vein. Pigeonholing him as an consequence of xenophobia or bigotry misses mark, but it makes it easier for people to mentally write him off as a short-term phenomenon. Unless the situation seriously improves in the US, Trump and his political descendants aren't going away.

Not at all coerced in fact we had a lengthy discussion of the topic many pages back. It's just you see Hanson through the local lens of her xenophobia and bigotry forgetting that large parts of her platform were economic. The link between job insecurity/poor economic conditions and hostility to immigration is both long standing and fairly understandable. The two go together. I don't suggest that Trump is a one issue candidate but neither was Hanson.

I'm fairly conflicted on Trump as I think his candidacy will if nothing else, shake up both the GOP and Democratic establishment to move assuage some of the cries of the domestic population. Unless something is done, he won't be the last candidate to run a campaign like this.

Equally I think he's much smarter and less actually xenophobic than Hanson, but he runs on her issues. The same issues that your NSM the world over have run on in times of economic and political despair.

 

[Play by Numbers]

I think the major factor that decides a Trump presidency is whether there is movement in electing a supreme court justice.

Trump may not be a conservative, or favored by the RINO establishment types, but the prospect of having the Supreme court, congress and senate may align the voting base behind him.

It's a factor I hadn't considered before, but I think could at least offer a reason for the party to unite behind him.

If that happens and Clinton is the nominee, Trump's temperament and voter participation come in to play. The wider electorate will be less receptive to his brand of demagoguery, but Clinton polls high in unfavorables and progressives may not align behind her. The only saving grace is how small a proportion the republican base is of the voting total, likewise that swing voters are a small proportion. There would need to be record registration of voters, who then vote Trump. The issue with this is that Obama drew upon the youth vote, who had low participation numbers. There has been record participation in the primaries, but these are older, and possibly registered voters

 

[medusala]

If that happens and Clinton is the nominee, Trump's temperament and voter participation come in to play. The wider electorate will be less receptive to his brand of demagoguery, but Clinton polls high in unfavorables and progressives may not align behind her. The only saving grace is how small a proportion the republican base is of the voting total, likewise that swing voters are a small proportion. There would need to be record registration of voters, who then vote Trump. The issue with this is that Obama drew upon the youth vote, who had low participation numbers. There has been record participation in the primaries, but these are older, and possibly registered voters

Obama also had a big black vote ie % is a given but turnout isn't. Hilary knows she will lose the white vote very badly so she needs black turnout plus landslide Hispanic vote to win.

Presumably she will push immigration ie giving passports to illegal immigrants, heavily in the election to shore up their vote. A very average thing to do but I can't see that stopping her. However, as is par for the course for her, she has some baggage from the past.

http://civilliberty.about.com/od/ussenators/p/hillary_clinton.htm

Hillary Clinton supported the 2007 immigration reform compromise legislation, which would have granted a path to citizenship and established a new guest worker program. She has placed a stronger rhetorical emphasis on border security than other Democratic candidates, however, and as First Lady supported the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, which expanded the use of deportation and limited conditions under which deportation could be appealed.

Below article is interesting in that electoral votes are distributed by population not by citizenship which advantages the Democrats.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/illegal-immigrants-could-elect-hillary-clinton-213216

 

[MaddAdam]

Boris is very quick on his feet. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Trump destroyed Clinton in a debate. He has the balls to call her corrupt rather than just skirt around it. Presumably he will go on and on about how he has funded his own campaign and isn't a Wall Streets puppet like others are.

He would destroy her.

 

[MaddAdam]

So many good lines in that bit but this, this, is perfection.

Yep, sums it all up quite nicely.

 

[Gough]

Trump reminds me of Bob Roberts.

 

[The Punter]

Would there be possible detrimental effects of Trump "destroying" Clinton in a debate setting? Could it possibly be counterproductive?

 

[Linda_Lovelace]

Trump is leading in nine of the Super Tuesday states. He is the presumptive nominee.

None of this changes the dynamic regarding a straight Trump v Generic Democrat in the General - he can't win.

But in a three-corner contest involving Bloomberg? Throw out all the predictions.

At the very least, Bloomberg puts New York and New Jersey in play. You'd also have to argue he would also put in states in the same area with the same demographics into play (the significant ones under this scenario would be Pennsylvania and Ohio, but possibly also Maryland and Virginia).

Then you have to start thinking about California.

We'll know more this time next week, but the next nine months promise to be ground breaking, and brokered conventions and votes for President on the floor of the US House of Representatives are not out of the question.

Disagree I think Turmp is going to win, his momentum is huge and the US looks like it is entering an economic down turn so the same old voices will not appeal.

Trump's turn outs are huge, he has people voting in record numbers and you would expect most of Cruz's support to flow to him in due course.

It will only grow, the media has thrown everything they can at him and he has only got stronger.

 

[Linda_Lovelace]

Iraq is done and Afghanistan is largely forgotten. Foreign policy I suspect is well down on the list of priorities for the average voter.

This election (pending something like a 9/11 happening) will be fought on the economy.

A 9/11 event would help an incumbent and there is no incumbent. Trump has gone very, very hard on security matters, extreme in some cases so he will have the head way over Clinton who has the Obama Arab spring around her neck and Benghazi. She will not want to fight him on security matters.

 

[BoxMatrix]

Rubio is absolutely murdering Trump in this debate. Really giving good punches.

The race is between him and Trump. Other three have no chance.

 

[Play by Numbers]

Disagree I think Turmp is going to win, his momentum is huge and the US looks like it is entering an economic down turn so the same old voices will not appeal.

Trump's turn outs are huge, he has people voting in record numbers and you would expect most of Cruz's support to flow to him in due course.

It will only grow, the media has thrown everything they can at him and he has only got stronger.

Why would Cruz's support flow to Trump?

It will flow to Rubio. Both are highly religious conservative/borderline Tea Party types.

Also, the media has gone very easy on Trump which is part of his success.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

These GOP debates are the more entertaining than anything else on television at the moment.

 

[The Speaker]

Why would Cruz's support flow to Trump?

It will flow to Rubio. Both are highly religious conservative/borderline Tea Party types.

If Cruz drops out his supporters will mix their support between Rubio and Trump, depending on what they value the most in their candidate this election. Some will also not vote. This is the fundamental problem to anyone who isn't Trump winning - not all the supporters of other candidates will automatically go to someone else who isn't Trump.

 

[Play by Numbers]

If Cruz drops out his supporters will mix their support between Rubio and Trump, depending on what they value the most in their candidate this election. Some will also not vote. This is the fundamental problem to anyone who isn't Trump winning - not all the supporters of other candidates will automatically go to someone else who isn't Trump.

Never said they would, but given Trump's traction and unique place, he will have consolidated his support more strongly.

Those Cruz voters are more likely to slide to Rubio, though some will end up with Trump. Mainly, the anti-establishment set.