Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[gandaal]

7-8 senior players will go.
Are Walker and Jamison really contracted for 2017?? That's crazy if true

Injuries have cost them years.

 

[1981]

These guys almost def gone :

Tutt
Dick
Smith
Armfield
Foster

That's 5.

Walker and Jamison depending on contract status

Whiley maybe also

Everitt maybe a trade
Buckley maybe a trade

 

[passmark]

Not sure why Army would retire or be pushed out.

Always picked when fit, always contributes and has attributes we are severely lacking i.e fast, big body, accountable and an excellent defensive forward.

I'd be surprised if he doesn't get one more year at least and if not with us, he's the sort of leader someone like GC, Port and Brisbane are screaming for.

 

[Smegger]

These guys almost def gone :

Tutt
Dick
Smith
Armfield
Foster

That's 5.

Walker and Jamison depending on contract status

Whiley maybe also

Everitt maybe a trade
Buckley maybe a trade

I think you're spot on with these names except maybe Armfield. Apart from last week he's provided a bit of spark for us.

 

[true blue19]

Our delisting would depend on our trades and if we bring in any DFA. If we don't trade any players in than we will have 4 pick in the draft plus upgrade Byrne. Player to be delisted or retire.

Dick
Whiley
Tutt
White
Armfield

Rookies
Sheehan
Gowers
Wood

Depending on trades
Foster
Jamison
Gorringe
Jones
Walker
Smith
Rowe

 

[true blue19]

I keep on hearing that we are looking at about 4 GWS players obviously Tomlinson and Marchbank which everyone is talking about but also Steele a NSW/ACT boy and Hoskins- Elliott pick 4 2011. If we get all 4 I think it will cost us a lot more than just pick 28.

 

[F_therest]

Which rookies are you alluding to, after Wood?

The only thing that may save Gallucci, is if we don't pick up another goal-sneak.
He hasn't been that good in the games I've seen, at least.

I don't think Gowers or Sheehan will make it.

People rave about Sheehan and I have seen him do some nice things but reality is he is injury prone and inexperienced and not young.

 

[Funk]

Don't think the game against North did anything of the sort.

Missing Kreuzer and Phillips as frontline ruck options.
Missing Casboult as the focal point for the forward line.
McKay and Curnow in the wings, the former should be getting a few games next season with a view to launch into 2018, the latter should be a regular fixture from round one 2017.

We'd come off a six day break following four hard-fought games, NM had a seven day break after playing a half against Essendon.

We were smashed, absolutely, and the players and coaches won't be happy about it, but there are mitigating circumstances that more than account for our performance.

Plenty of blokes on your list will be on notice, you're right about that. But I'm not convinced we have the luxury of being able to offload 15 players at year's end. 12 is probably the upper limit, especially considering most of them will be delistings/retirements, rather than trades.

RETIRED: Walker, Jamison
DELISTED: Whiley, Wood, Gowers, Foster
AT RISK: Tutt, Dick, Smith, Sheehan
ONE MORE YEAR: White, Rowe, Jaksch, Jones, Armfield, DVR, Simpson

Rowe, Jones, White and Armfield have shown enough this year that they should be retained as injury cover if nothing else. Jaksch and DVR should be persisted with for at least one more year, and I'd be very surprised if we didn't see them in the seniors towards the back end of the season. Simmo goes on until he's done - his call.

Tutt and Dick unlucky, both show plenty in the VFL but haven't been able to make the most of their AFL opportunities. Smith seems like a bust, hasn't shown anything to make me want to hold him, coaches may have other ideas though. Sheehan has the rest of the year to crack the senior side - has been unlucky with injury but at 26 it's now or never.

Based on the above, that'd be 10 players gone. Might get something for some of the "At Risk" group in the way of third rounders (Smith, Dick = picks around 60).

Even so, that's 10 spots to be filled with picks 5, 23, 41, 50 (WB), 59, 60 (Dick), 61 (Smith), plus three rookie picks. Grab a delisted FA or two and we can bundle a couple of late picks for earlier ones.

If you wanna turf another 4-5 players, then we need to get something in return for them, otherwise we're taking pot shots at 70-100 in the draft.

Like your work BB.

Of all the posters here your views most closely match mine - will be interested to see what happens.

I suspect SOS will reprise last years strategies of Multi player deals and then sign delisted free agents (who have been encouraged not to sign with their clubs!!) instead of taking kids with picks in the 60's to 80's.

 

[BluesRule]

Like your work BB.

Of all the posters here your views most closely match mine - will be interested to see what happens.

I suspect SOS will reprise last years strategies of Multi player deals and then sign delisted free agents (who have been encouraged not to sign with their clubs!!) instead of taking kids with picks in the 60's to 80's.

Like that FA strategy as we have cap room and can offer fringe players AFL game time.
Would be interesting to know who this could apply to?
i.e.. If Ahern does not sign anything with GWS does he become a free agent or have to go into the draft first?

 

[Malifice]

Correct me if I'm wrong but GWS could potentially have 4 first round picks this year, Fremantles (if McCarthy goes there), Geelongs, Collingwoods and their own. Could there be some sort of trade involving one of their first round pick for a bundle of our 2nd or 3rd round picks and maybe a player so they get more points?

Assuming we finish 6th, well have picks 24, 42 and 50 odd this year (as our 2nd and 3rd round picks) adds up to around 1400 points. Around the same value as pick 10.

If GWS score pick 10-12 (and they will have one in that range) we should swap them for it.

We should also swap next years 2nd round pick for one of Marchbank or Thommo.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Assuming we finish 6th, well have picks 24, 42 and 50 odd this year (as our 2nd and 3rd round picks) adds up to around 1400 points. Around the same value as pick 10.

If GWS score pick 10-12 (and they will have one in that range) we should swap them for it.

We should also swap next years 2nd round pick for one of Marchbank or Thommo.

I love the idea of trading future picks to try and tighten the age profile up.

A future second is also a lot more safe than a future first.

 

[BluesRule]

Assuming we finish 6th, well have picks 24, 42 and 50 odd this year (as our 2nd and 3rd round picks) adds up to around 1400 points. Around the same value as pick 10.

If GWS score pick 10-12 (and they will have one in that range) we should swap them for it.

We should also swap next years 2nd round pick for one of Marchbank or Thommo.

GWS have a lot of draftees in 2017, so desperately need extra picks for the Academy.
GWS want our picks next year and - like the Henderson/Geelong pick trade with us - will pay a premium.
Our needs are immediate so I hope for a win/win outcome.
Problem is 2017 is forecast as a super draft. We need a low first round pick and should try to keep our second.
Best strategy may be to trade down our 2017 pick (as we are expected to be shite) then try to outperform (i.e. if GWS get Freo's 2017 first round pick for McCarthy, we swap our first in 2017 for Freo's first plus Marchbank and Thommo. As everyone expects Freo to recover next year it looks a fair trade).
Really hurts if we get the spoon in 2017 and Freo do recover and win the flag
Laughing if we can do better than Freo in 2017

 

[branedotorg]

i'm all for renewing our list but remember we don't have the same currency as last year. 10 cuts / retirements means we have to rely on either sweetheat multi deals again, dfas or really scraping the draft in the later rounds.

we did very well last year but it's not a given we can package like that again.

 

[DangerousD]

Assuming we finish 6th, well have picks 24, 42 and 50 odd this year (as our 2nd and 3rd round picks) adds up to around 1400 points. Around the same value as pick 10.

If GWS score pick 10-12 (and they will have one in that range) we should swap them for it.

We should also swap next years 2nd round pick for one of Marchbank or Thommo.

With the points trading, which im sure you are aware, there is no point trading 1400 points (of our picks) for pick 10 (1400 points) from GWS. We would have to offer more points for them to have any benefit or want to do the trade.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Which northern blue vfl small could take his place

Kerbatieh

 

[DangerousD]

If we are interested in bundling our later picks to improve our draft position then we will not be in a position to cull the list like some are suggesting. Yes most of if not all the players mentioned by a lot of people are on borrowed time but if we cut 10 then we need to bring in 10. With only two picks in the top 30 the 7th,8,9,10th will be scraping the barrel in terms of quality and will be no better than what they replace.

For all advocating cutting by 10 plus, what are your thoughts on how we replace these players?

 

[AB_Blue]

Walker & Jamo to retire is a no brainer. It's also safe to assume the HBF line is sorted, which means Dick is probably going to get chopped.

Sheehan will prob get another gig IF his body hold up. Wood is a certainty and Gowers & Foster more likely than less likely.

Byrne will also need an upgrade

Gone: Jamo, Walks, Dick, Foster
Rookies: Wood, Gowers (Sheehan)

Thin Ice
Clem Smith
Jason Tutt
Mark Whiley
Dennis Armfield
Simon White

Even a conservative list cull will bring 4-6 off the primary list and 3+ Rookies, not including elevations

That's getting up there.....

 

[Malifice]

With the points trading, which im sure you are aware, there is no point trading 1400 points (of our picks) for pick 10 (1400 points) from GWS. We would have to offer more points for them to have any benefit or want to do the trade.

Pick 12ish works.

 

[Funk]

If we are interested in bundling our later picks to improve our draft position then we will not be in a position to cull the list like some are suggesting. Yes most of if not all the players mentioned by a lot of people are on borrowed time but if we cut 10 then we need to bring in 10. With only two picks in the top 30 the 7th,8,9,10th will be scraping the barrel in terms of quality and will be no better than what they replace.

For all advocating cutting by 10 plus, what are your thoughts on how we replace these players?

Pursuade players not to re-sign and then sign as DFAs

 

[Chalky Blues]

Have we got anymore damaged players we can offload to Richmond at the end of the season?

 

[DaVillaBlues]

Have we got anymore damaged players we can offload to Richmond at the end of the season?

These guys almost def gone :

Tutt
Dick
Smith
Armfield
Foster

That's 5.

Walker and Jamison depending on contract status

Whiley maybe also

Everitt maybe a trade
Buckley maybe a trade

Nick Graham is skating on thin ice territory now, if he isn't brought back for either the St Kilda or Brisbane games in the next few weeks, I'd almost say it's a safe bet he won't be at Carlton next year ( I figure he won't be in the coaching staff's long term plans if he can't get a game against the run of the mill Saints or the Lowly Lions)

I think they'll either give Clem Smith another year, or delist him and put him on the rookie list.
Jamison will do the right thing and call it a day, hoping Walker has the same common sense and also retire, despite having another year left on his contract.

 

[Bluey24]

FYI, I just came across an insightful comment on Fox Footy regarding Dion Prestia. Make of it what you will.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/dio...h/news-story/40fdc4c1e34bd046119b2871976caf05

Adrian -

Dion will end up exactly where he's wanted to be since he started playing footy for the mighty West Lalor Dragons as a little wombat of a kid, as opposed to his older cousin Gaeten, who I played with, who was a 6'4 beanpole at age 15.

But their respective fathers, that is to say, Dions father and his uncle, used to sponsor the club. But they also sponsored another football club. A club to whom the Prestia family's "hearts beat true". Prestia Wholesalers were, and I believe still are, a major provider of fresh produce to the Melbourne Football Club.

 

[Bluey24]

Nick Graham is skating on thin ice territory now, if he isn't brought back for either the St Kilda or Brisbane games in the next few weeks, I'd almost say it's a safe bet he won't be at Carlton next year ( I figure he won't be in the coaching staff's long term plans if he can't get a game against the run of the mill Saints or the Lowly Lions)

I think they'll either give Clem Smith another year, or delist him and put him on the rookie list.
Jamison will do the right thing and call it a day, hoping Walker has the same common sense and also retire, despite having another year left on his contract.

I disagree. Graham is still young, a great clubman, and he provides us with MUCH needed depth. He's worth at least another year.

 

[Omega Blue]

FYI, I just came across an insightful comment on Fox Footy regarding Dion Prestia. Make of it what you will.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/dio...h/news-story/40fdc4c1e34bd046119b2871976caf05

Adrian -

Dion will end up exactly where he's wanted to be since he started playing footy for the mighty West Lalor Dragons as a little wombat of a kid, as opposed to his older cousin Gaeten, who I played with, who was a 6'4 beanpole at age 15.

But their respective fathers, that is to say, Dions father and his uncle, used to sponsor the club. But they also sponsored another football club. A club to whom the Prestia family's "hearts beat true". Prestia Wholesalers were, and I believe still are, a major provider of fresh produce to the Melbourne Football Club.

My only comment to that is the dees would have to trade players for him as they have no first round pick and next year's first rounder would be not good enough.

 

[rp84]

I disagree. Graham is still young, a great clubman, and he provides us with MUCH needed depth. He's worth at least another year.

I think graham is a good depth player, and will unlikely ever be more. We need theae sorts of players, and I would be happy to keep him for years to be that. Problem is, will he be happy to do that? I expect him to ask for a trade, more than anything.