Preview 2017: how do we bounce back?

[JordyLuke]

None of them are anywhere near as good as Bruest. This guy has kicked 40+goals for us the last 4 years as a med/small forward. That is a fantastic effort.

For sure, but that isn't to say that others won't develop into stars. I'd dare say that Sicily at this stage of his career has outperformed the majority of his equivalent peers.

 

[LuckyHawk]

The reason Bruest and even the likes of Gunston had a hard year is because having no real KPF with Roughy out means they are now getting the attention of the best defenders. Put Rough in that forward 50 and he will be the focal worry of the opposition which is why in previous years our medium and small forwards have run riot. This year they had to cover all tasks.

Pop, Breust, Cyril and Gunner all played well in the absence of Rough. Combined goals in 2016 = 179 as opposed to 180 in 2015.
Maybe they didn't hold the ball in F50 as well as 2015 but they were doing it a lot harder trying to score.
Maintaining their scoring rate in Roughie's absence was a fantastic effort - no finger pointing at these guys.

 

[Gralin]

None of them are anywhere near as good as Bruest. This guy has kicked 40+goals for us the last 4 years as a med/small forward. That is a fantastic effort.

Last 5 years and he was only 3 goals short of 50 three years in a row

 

[JordyLuke]

Pop, Breust, Cyril and Gunner all played well in the absence of Rough. Combined goals in 2016 = 179 as opposed to 180 in 2015.
Maybe they didn't hold the ball in F50 as well as 2015 but they were doing it a lot harder trying to score.
Maintaining their scoring rate in Roughie's absence was a fantastic effort - no finger pointing at these guys.

No finger pointing at all. My point is the these guys are now the main scoring options and we don't have one guy to fill the 60 or more goals Rough would have kicked on top of the other guys, and that isn't even mentioning his clearances or goal assists. Sicily has been great, but Roughy is a massive loss to our scoring capacity and I think it's why we haven't been able to put teams away this year and not convert enough of our forward 50 entries.

 

[Manila_Hawk]

Conor Glass hasnt been mentioned much. I hope he can break into the seniors next year.

Running off half back. Watch his Gaelic footy highlights. He will be good.

 

[LuckyHawk]

No finger pointing at all. My point is the these guys are now the main scoring options and we don't have one guy to fill the 60 or more goals Rough would have kicked on top of the other guys, and that isn't even mentioning his clearances or goal assists. Sicily has been great, but Roughy is a massive loss to our scoring capacity and I think it's why we haven't been able to put teams away this year and not convert enough of our forward 50 entries.

Sorry, I didn't mean you finger pointing, just generally. Agree with your post.

 

[VandoHawk]

Conor Glass hasnt been mentioned much. I hope he can break into the seniors next year.

Running off half back. Watch his Gaelic footy highlights. He will be good.

Very optimistic. Connor at Development level has taken fantastic strides in his development and shown fantastic attributes. His kicking his good, his athleticism is good, his run and carry is good.

His game sense is not, but with exposure to our game that can definitely be improved. Expect him to jump into Box Hill Seniors next year but if he's getting a game in the Hawthorn side something has gone wrong.

 

[Arc1]

Yep, I hope nobody was reading my post as just a "let's get rid of Breust". I'm just considering the rumour and trying to work out what possible outcomes we have here - gut feeling is that we may finally have to trade out someone genuinely good.

My actual trade hope his year was: (1) Jed Anderson develops into the beast we thought he might have, (2) HFC identifies an apparently star player who is about to nosedive, (3) player is traded to North for Anderson, (4) slightly guilty high 5s all round. That or some even more complicated deal where we give Schoenmakers plus picks to Freo for Nat Fyfe, then in 2019 get Scho back as a dominant KPF.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Conor Glass hasnt been mentioned much. I hope he can break into the seniors next year.

Running off half back. Watch his Gaelic footy highlights. He will be good.

I would have thought he was at least another year away.

Getting JOM and TOM will be huge for us as long as we don't have to give up too much.

Expect Burton to play every game next year too.

Hopefully Brand stays and cements CHB too.

 

[JordyLuke]

Sorry, I didn't mean you finger pointing, just generally. Agree with your post.

All good. Call me crazy, but I feel kind of excited about a mini rebuild.

 

[Slick]

It's going to be interesting to see how GW and his team get it done, but I'm looking forward to the possibility of having Mitchell and O'Meara at our club next year, couple that with another preseason into Lovell, Brand and O'Rourke and A preseason into Burton.

It may not be a smooth year next year, but it'll be exciting for a whole different reason.

 

[hk89]

I wonder if those that are calling out Gibson as cooked realise he had a forward tagging him in a number of games towards the end of the season in order to curtail his creative run out of the backline. I'm not sure how often that was happening at the start of the season, but that alone could explain a drop off in productivity. It is possible the coaching stuff will need to adapt his role next year when this happens to maximise his contributions, but he is not necessarily physically cooked. Gibson may well not have much left in the tank, but I'd like to see a few more games where he's not getting a forward tag to assess that.

The attention given to Gibson may also be having a flow on effect to Birchall. I'd guess a large number of Birchall's runs out of defense start with a possession he receives from Gibson. In any case, overall Birchall still had a very good year. I think people are remembering a couple of errors in the finals and characterising his year based on that.

Like others, I had the impression Breust was down on form this year, but when you look at his stats, it is hard to see where that impression comes from. Very slightly less potent in front of goals than his best years (2014 and 2015), but that seems largely due to a drop off in accuracy than not getting the opportunity in front of goals. Had he kicked as straight as he had in previous years, this may well have been his best year for goal contributions. It is not like things have got easier for him with Roughead out of the team either. A player than can look down on form and comfortably kick 40+ goals is not a player you trade away IMO.

Hodge's disposal does seem to have deteriorated somewhat from his best, probably the bash-and-crash finally catching up with him, but I'd also heard he's carried something for a big chunk of the season, and I'd shudder to think how much Doggies would have smashed us by without his presence on the field. Hodge was still one of our best in many games this year, and if he's cooked, then I think we are in very big trouble in 2017, because a cooked hodge is still better than over 80% of our list - and by a fair margin - which would mean we are truly ****ed next season. I think the reality is that we will not see his best again, but that he is so good he can very easily make significant contributions to the side next year if he has a good pre-season and stays fit all year. Even if he doesn't, after what he's done for Hawthorn, I'm happy for the club to make it his call on when he goes.

 

[The Swert]

2017 will require a change of strategy by Clarko.

In 2016 we played a 'counterattack' strategy.

We were poor in contested ball and relied on tackling pressure to force turnovers and then counterattack before defences can regroup.

There are a no doubt a few reasons why this strategy was chosen.
- No key forwards to mark high kicks forward.
- Average ruckmen
- Slowing midfield who are often second to the ball.
- Great tackling and chasing players like Rioli, Puopolo, Shiels

The stats back this up:
- contested ball differential of -471 (poor midfield)
- clearance differential of -77 (poor midfield)
- tackling differential of +111 (good tackling but means we were 2nd to the ball)
- one percenters differential of +258 (good spoiling and pressure)
- contested mark differential of -71 (we missed Lake and Roughead)
- most contested marks conceded (we missed Lake)
- least bounces against (good pressure)

2017
There is no wonder why we are chasing O'Meara and T Mitchell. These guys will help our contested ball/clearance work which is our main issue.

Yes we miss a big key defender, but at least we make the opposition take contested marks rather than uncontested. And if we limit their clearances, we will take pressure off our defenders.

We might still struggle marking the high ball going forward. Our forwards are more the agile type and I doubt Vickery will help that much. So we will need to try more quick chaos balls into the forward line.

Speed and rebounding is not an issue, and the efficient ball skills of our champs is still there. Hill is replaceable by Hartung.

 

[Hawksboy72]

Based on this season we need to address the following areas:

1. Contested ball- O'Meara and Mitchell will help (assuming we get them) along with Shiels and a few younger guys.

2. Run and carry off half back- Birchall hasn't been himself this year and has been injured a lot the past few years. Duryea is a decent kick but doesn't provide much run. Gibbo is usually a great user of the ball but again doesn't have the speed and Stratton is a lock down defender. Not sure how we address this one given our current personnel unless someone like Smith plays off a half bank flank but that reduces our midfield speed significantly.

3. Forward line- the structure has been rubbish all year. Again, tonight we had Gunston roaming up the ground and Rioli as our "tall target." Roughie may never make it back (and his health should be his only concern) so we need a significant overhaul of our game style that plays to the strengths of guys like Gunston, Rioli and Bruest who are not pack marking forwards (other than the occasion specie from Cyril).

Midfeild- Messi and Ronaldo
Forwards- Andy Carroll

 

[Davo-27]

2017 will require a change of strategy by Clarko.

In 2016 we played a 'counterattack' strategy.

We were poor in contested ball and relied on tackling pressure to force turnovers and then counterattack before defences can regroup.

There are a no doubt a few reasons why this strategy was chosen.
- No key forwards to mark high kicks forward.
- Average ruckmen
- Slowing midfield who are often second to the ball.
- Great tackling and chasing players like Rioli, Puopolo, Shiels

The stats back this up:
- contested ball differential of -471 (poor midfield)
- clearance differential of -77 (poor midfield)
- tackling differential of +111 (good tackling but means we were 2nd to the ball)
- one percenters differential of +258 (good spoiling and pressure)
- contested mark differential of -71 (we missed Lake and Roughead)
- most contested marks conceded (we missed Lake)
- least bounces against (good pressure)

2017
There is no wonder why we are chasing O'Meara and T Mitchell. These guys will help our contested ball/clearance work which is our main issue.

Yes we miss a big key defender, but at least we make the opposition take contested marks rather than uncontested. And if we limit their clearances, we will take pressure off our defenders.

We might still struggle marking the high ball going forward. Our forwards are more the agile type and I doubt Vickery will help that much. So we will need to try more quick chaos balls into the forward line.

Speed and rebounding is not an issue, and the efficient ball skills of our champs is still there. Hill is replaceable by Hartung.

great post, cheers

 

[Hawkboy62]

2017. The year of opportunity, without the burden of trying to make history. There is cause for optimism with some exciting recruitment but also the reality that our list is no longer the best, and that we will have to strive hard just to ensure a finals berth. We have lost the awe factor that we once held, and there are a multitude of rivals hoping to usurp our position.

We have deficiencies in our defense, with little depth; our midfield is slow and reactive, and our forward structure and the manner of our entries needs to improve.

It seems that our game plan and conditioning for the reduced rotations of 2016 was found out by the speedier, contested ball and fast handball teams. I have every confidence that Clarko & Russell will tweak our plan and conditioning, and that we will be competitive in those areas next year. The extra 2 weeks break will help us freshen up.

IMO we need to get plenty of games in to our youth and that the veterans Hodgey, Mitch, Silk, Lewis & Birch, (if there), should be rotated to ensure that Lovell, JOR, Langers, Howe, Hardwick, Stewart, TOB, Heatherly and others get consistent game time. Gibbo probably needs to play if available for structural reasons.

I feel we need a major list clear out, to make way for (hopefully) JOM, TMitch & Ty and top ups to rectify deficiencies, plus also 2+ draft picks for the future. I'm also glad that we have good people to make the hard decisions. Apart from Hill (to be traded), and Spangher (probably retired), probably 2 of the rookies need to be delisted and we should be trying to trade players with currency, notwithstanding, they have been good & loyal servants of the club. In order to facilitate the JOM & TMitch trades we will need to give up players in our top 22.

Possible trade bait:
Birchall
Sicily
Puopolo or Breust
Hartung
Litherland
Any other fringe players with currency (except Burton).

Other positions that need bolstering:
A back up ruckman
A KP defender, at least for back up. (McKenzie, Frost)?
Quality midfield grunt (Hrovat)?
A KPF, probably best to go to draft & hope

Big Boy and Brand are yet to re-sign. If they do not then they also will need to be replaced.

I expect that our 2017 list to be inferior to GWS and Bulldogs, but hopefully at least on par with the rest. 2018 we will be even better. But all our opponents are all improving too. Frightening to think that GWS may win the premiership but pick up the No ! draft pick plus other academy players at a discount. Chris Judd thinks that GWS have potentially 20 AA's plus ongoing high picks from their rivals for there discards. The second FourPeat may be closer than we think. Pity it won't be ours!

 

[Simon Crawshay]

I wonder if those that are calling out Gibson as cooked realise he had a forward tagging him in a number of games towards the end of the season in order to curtail his creative run out of the backline. I'm not sure how often that was happening at the start of the season, but that alone could explain a drop off in productivity. It is possible the coaching stuff will need to adapt his role next year when this happens to maximise his contributions, but he is not necessarily physically cooked. Gibson may well not have much left in the tank, but I'd like to see a few more games where he's not getting a forward tag to assess that.

The attention given to Gibson may also be having a flow on effect to Birchall. I'd guess a large number of Birchall's runs out of defense start with a possession he receives from Gibson. In any case, overall Birchall still had a very good year. I think people are remembering a couple of errors in the finals and characterising his year based on that.

Like others, I had the impression Breust was down on form this year, but when you look at his stats, it is hard to see where that impression comes from. Very slightly less potent in front of goals than his best years (2014 and 2015), but that seems largely due to a drop off in accuracy than not getting the opportunity in front of goals. Had he kicked as straight as he had in previous years, this may well have been his best year for goal contributions. It is not like things have got easier for him with Roughead out of the team either. A player than can look down on form and comfortably kick 40+ goals is not a player you trade away IMO.

Hodge's disposal does seem to have deteriorated somewhat from his best, probably the bash-and-crash finally catching up with him, but I'd also heard he's carried something for a big chunk of the season, and I'd shudder to think how much Doggies would have smashed us by without his presence on the field. Hodge was still one of our best in many games this year, and if he's cooked, then I think we are in very big trouble in 2017, because a cooked hodge is still better than over 80% of our list - and by a fair margin - which would mean we are truly stuffed next season. I think the reality is that we will not see his best again, but that he is so good he can very easily make significant contributions to the side next year if he has a good pre-season and stays fit all year. Even if he doesn't, after what he's done for Hawthorn, I'm happy for the club to make it his call on when he goes.

Good post.

The form of our vetran players for 2016 was actually really solid for most of the year (Mitchell, Gibbo, Burgers, etc).

What really hurt us this year was the up and down form of "newbie" players like OBrien, O'Rouke, etc. Replacing Brian Lake with Brand is another example.

There is a reason the vets all got another year, if we didn't have them on the list for 2017 we would be a middle of the rung team.

 

[PhatHQ]

Conor Glass hasnt been mentioned much. I hope he can break into the seniors next year.

Running off half back. Watch his Gaelic footy highlights. He will be good.

I have thought that he will be a ripper after watching his highlights.
Very much someone that could replace Birch or Burgoyne with a preseason or two

 

[Lotus]

I have thought that he will be a ripper after watching his highlights.
Very much someone that could replace Birch or Burgoyne with a preseason or two

He's got 1 premiership already.
Very good start.

 

[sven_inc]

With Hill and Hartung hopefully departing to help bring our trade targets, who do we have on our list to replace their role?

I remember reading they were keeping out Whitecross but they seem to be able to play together recently.

Could this allow JOR to get a consistent games? Chance to use his skills and rotate through the centre?

 

[WWSD]

With Hill and Hartung hopefully departing to help bring our trade targets, who do we have on our list to replace their role?

I remember reading they were keeping out Whitecross but they seem to be able to play together recently.

Could this allow JOR to get a consistent games? Chance to use his skills and rotate through the centre?

Kade Stewart.

He will play a lot of games next year. The impressive thing about Stewart is despite having a similar build to Hartung and Hill, he can actually go in and win that contested possession and go hard at the contest. More then half of his possessions in the 3 games he played this year were contested. Same in the VFL. He's also a much better tackler then Hill and Hartung and is a pretty decent finisher around goal. In the long term I reckon it will be Stewart and Hartung as the two wingman for Hawthorn. I don't think Hartung will be going anywhere.

 

[sven_inc]

Kade Stewart.

He will play a lot of games next year. The impressive thing about Stewart is despite having a similar build to Hartung and Hill, he can actually go in and win that contested possession and go hard at the contest. More then half of his possessions in the 3 games he played this year were contested. Same in the VFL. He's also a much better tackler then Hill and Hartung and is a pretty decent finisher around goal. In the long term I reckon it will be Stewart and Hartung as the two wingman for Hawthorn. I don't think Hartung will be going anywhere.

You don't see him across HF or eventually in the guts?

 

[H2F]

I asked this in another thread.

What's the most players you're allowed to draft in a single year?

 

[Gralin]

I asked this in another thread.

What's the most players you're allowed to draft in a single year?

You personally? None

 

[H2F]

You personally? None