Traded #1 - Jesse Hogan - traded to Freo - #fistedforever

[DemonTim]

Nah Ox was the one that said he was 98% sure he was gone early on.. he usually has pretty good info before he makes a call

I dunno, Ox was also adament that Lance Armstrong wasn't a drug cheat, it was pretty much only after that Armstrong admitted it he agreed

 

[Blackas87]

And then we have an out of contract player with less value if he still wants to leave? I'm not sure what another year would do to 'convince' him?

Beams was out of contract, went for 2 first rounders. Hogan has a stellar season and his value rises, both Freo and West Coast want him, there will be a bidding war. The missing part for our team will be a key forward if Hogan leaves, no compensation this year or next is going fix that, we are best at doing everything to try and keep him than get rid of him early.

 

[DemonTim]

Beams was out of contract, went for 2 first rounders. Hogan has a stellar season and his value rises, both Freo and West Coast want him, there will be a bidding war. The missing part for our team will be a key forward if Hogan leaves, no compensation this year or next is going fix that, we are best at doing everything to try and keep him than get rid of him early.

Bad comparison. Beams was never rumoured to be wanting to leave in 2013. GWS even offered up high picks for him then (search dayne beams trade with a 2013 date range, there is nothing)
I'm curious though, what do you think we could do to convince him in the next 12 months that he's not already sold on? Especially if the rumours about his fathers health are accurate Marc_Remillard might know better about this than me

 

[Blackas87]

Bad comparison. Beams was never rumoured to be wanting to leave in 2013. GWS even offered up high picks for him then (search dayne beams trade with a 2013 date range, there is nothing)
I'm curious though, what do you think we could do to convince him in the next 12 months that he's not already sold on? Especially if the rumours about his fathers health are accurate Marc_Remillard might know better about this than me

If Hogan wanted to go he'd say it this year, if he doesn't say anything by trade period and is still at Melbourne then he must be considering staying here. From what I've heard is Hogan wants to play for Melbourne but is close to his family and likes Perth, but he'd rather play with his teammates at Melbourne and head to the finals with them. A good year at Melbourne next year and he won't want to leave.

 

[DemonTim]

If Hogan wanted to go he'd say it this year, if he doesn't say anything by trade period and is still at Melbourne then he must be considering staying here. From what I've heard is Hogan wants to play for Melbourne but is close to his family and likes Perth, but he'd rather play with his teammates at Melbourne and head to the finals with them. A good year at Melbourne next year and he won't want to leave.

But you're basing this only on if we can still get top value for him next year, yeah?

 

[Sando22]

If Hogan wanted to go he'd say it this year, if he doesn't say anything by trade period and is still at Melbourne then he must be considering staying here. From what I've heard is Hogan wants to play for Melbourne but is close to his family and likes Perth, but he'd rather play with his teammates at Melbourne and head to the finals with them. A good year at Melbourne next year and he won't want to leave.

I change my mind every 5 minutes re Hoges after hearing this and that but this post pretty much sums up the feeling I normally arrive at.
Well said.

 

[Sando22]

Brett Anderson the trade bloke on SEN basically laughed off Tim Watsons BS this morning re Hogan/McGovern saying that McGovern + 1st rounder is a starting point to exactly what he's worth.
EAD Watson

 

[Blackas87]

But you're basing this only on if we can still get top value for him next year, yeah?

Why wouldn't we? As i stated out of contract player, Beams, Treloar, Judd all got top value when they were out of contract. Fremantle and West Coast will have bidding war, they both want him. His value is not going down unless a leg falls off, if anything he'll have his best season and his value will go up.

 

[DemonTim]

I change my mind every 5 minutes re Hoges after hearing this and that but this post pretty much sums up the feeling I normally arrive at.
Well said.

I'm a bit torn on it. If he says he's putting in inquiries elsewhere I don't know if i'd take that as a sign to keep him next year. I'm hoping we ask him flat out to tell us what's going on, what he's thinking for his future. Due diligence needs to be done before the trade period.

 

[DemonTim]

Why wouldn't we? As i stated out of contract player, Beams, Treloar, Judd all got top value when they were out of contract. Freamantle and West Coast will have bidding war, they both want him. His value is not going down unless a leg falls off, if anything he'll have his best season and his value will go up.

I already said why I feel your comparisons are invalid in relation to this.
In how many cases has a player been rumored to want out, a trade not done, then the following year the player got high value. I can only think of Mccarthy at GWS, but even that's different. Do we really want to run the risk of a tippett type scenario? Or luke ball?

 

[Blackas87]

I already said why I feel your comparisons are invalid in relation to this.
In how many cases has a player been rumored to want out, a trade not done, then the following year the player got high value. I can only think of Mccarthy at GWS, but even that's different. Do we really want to run the risk of a tippett type scenario? Or luke ball?

I doesn't matter if there was a rumour a player wanted out a year earlier, all those players when out of contract nominated a club and those clubs trade high compensation to get them, Fremantle and West Coast both want him and will make sure they get him by paying high, Fremantle would of learnt their lesson thinking they had Mitch Clark wrapped up and offered nothing, they missed out (I know in hindsight they didn't miss out).

Right now Melbourne have a gun ruckman, we have gun young midfielders, we have promising key defenders, what we need is a big brute forward and we have that in Hogan, There is nothing any club could trade with us that would be a win for us unless is it is a gun big key forward replacement, I don't care if we miss out on pick 3, we aren't going to get a Hogan replacement with it, my opinion is its best for us to do everything to keep Hogan, and if that means this dragging on another year then so be it.

 

[DemonTim]

I doesn't matter if there was a rumour a player wanted out a year earlier, all those players when out of contract nominated a club and those clubs trade high compensation to get them, Fremantle and West Coast both want him and will make sure they get him by paying high, Fremantle would of learnt their lesson thinking they had Mitch Clark wrapped up and offered nothing, they missed out (I know in hindsight they didn't miss out).

Right now Melbourne have a gun ruckman, we have gun young midfielders, we have promising key defenders, what we need is a big brute forward and we have that in Hogan, There is nothing any club could trade with us that would be a win for us unless is it is a gun big key forward replacement, I don't care if we miss out on pick 3, we aren't going to get a Hogan replacement with it, my opinion is its best for us to do everything to keep Hogan, and if that means this dragging on another year then so be it.

I'd say it is a major factor in it. What would stop it becoming more like a tippett scenario? What would stop one of them offering unders and hogan walking anyway if we play hard ball?
IF he wants to go home we need to do it at the best possible time for our club, I trust the club to do that, and I trust the club to be asking the questions now.
It wasn't that freo offered nothing, we convinced clark with more money, and had a better pick than freo. They offered up pick 16, we had 12

 

[Sando22]

I'm a bit torn on it. If he says he's putting in inquiries elsewhere I don't know if i'd take that as a sign to keep him next year. I'm hoping we ask him flat out to tell us what's going on, what he's thinking for his future. Due diligence needs to be done before the trade period.

I just hope the club read the situation correctly and put the club first regardless

 

[DemonTim]

I just hope the club read the situation correctly and put the club first regardless

I think it's a situation that we can get the best for both parties. If the kid wants to go home, just make it happen. From everything that's been said the last couple of days, it sounds like the clubs plan is to know the answer ASAP. They don't want it dragging on.

 

[Blackas87]

I'd say it is a major factor in it. What would stop it becoming more like a tippett scenario? What would stop one of them offering unders and hogan walking anyway if we play hard ball?
IF he wants to go home we need to do it at the best possible time for our club, I trust the club to do that, and I trust the club to be asking the questions now.
It wasn't that freo offered nothing, we convinced clark with more money, and had a better pick than freo. They offered up pick 16, we had 12

There will be two clubs after him, if he can't get to one because we don't trade him, Hogan then has the option to go to the other, there will be a bidding war, we won't get unders.

Freo offered pick 39 for Clark, Brisbane wanted pick 16, trade could of been done day one of the trade period. Trade wasn't happening and Melbourne then went to Mitch Clark who first refused our offer until we bumped up the money, We offered pick 12 and Fremantle came back and offer both 16 and 39 and Brisbane told them to get stuffed.

 

[Sando22]

I think it's a situation that we can get the best for both parties. If the kid wants to go home, just make it happen. From everything that's been said the last couple of days, it sounds like the clubs plan is to know the answer ASAP. They don't want it dragging on.

Yep and I like that that's what the club wants.
In years gone by we would have just bent over and copped it

 

[MUYB]

I'd say it is a major factor in it. What would stop it becoming more like a tippett scenario? What would stop one of them offering unders and hogan walking anyway if we play hard ball?
IF he wants to go home we need to do it at the best possible time for our club, I trust the club to do that, and I trust the club to be asking the questions now.
It wasn't that freo offered nothing, we convinced clark with more money, and had a better pick than freo. They offered up pick 16, we had 12

A Tippet scenario?

You mean the scenario where a club illegally agreed to trade a player to the club of their choosing at under market value as an inducement to get them to sign a contract extension?

 

[DemonTim]

There will be two clubs after him, if he can't get to one because we don't trade him, Hogan then has the option to go to the other, there will be a bidding war, we won't get unders.

Freo offered pick 39 for Clark, Brisbane wanted pick 16, trade could of been done day one of the trade period. Trade wasn't happening and Melbourne then went to Mitch Clark who first refused our offer until we bumped up the money, We offered pick 12 and Fremantle came back and offer both 16 and 39 and Brisbane told them to get stuffed.

Again, you're not really basing it on anything. What's to stop clubs saying "**** your bidding war, you're asking overs. Let him walk"

Are you sure? Not how I remember it, and looking it up the articles all say freo offered 16 but wouldn't budge on that offer
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/spo...ark-in-afl-trade/story-e6frg7mf-1226167594335

 

[DemonTim]

A Tippet scenario?

You mean the scenario where a club illegally agreed to trade a player to the club of their choosing at under market value as an inducement to get them to sign a contract extension?

Without the illegal part. If he's out of contract and we go too hard, there is nothing stopping him from going to the psd. As I said. Even that's a flawed comparison, just like beams etc. I just don't think it's a fact that we will get top value for him next year compared to this year

 

[DemonTim]

Yep and I like that that's what the club wants.
In years gone by we would have just bent over and copped it

i agree. From what's being said the clubs not pushing him to choose but they are following up constantly, trying to move the discussions to conclusion now

We currently have the power, next year we lose that

 

[Sando22]

i agree. From what's being said the clubs not pushing him to choose but they are following up constantly, trying to move the discussions to conclusion now

We currently have the power, next year we lose that

Bang.

 

[DemonTim]

Bang.

I'll be told I'm wrong though

 

[Sando22]

I'll be told I'm wrong though

I gotcha Smithy

 

[Blackas87]

Again, you're not really basing it on anything. What's to stop clubs saying "**** your bidding war, you're asking overs. Let him walk"

Are you sure? Not how I remember it, and looking it up the articles all say freo offered 16 but wouldn't budge on that offer
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/spo...ark-in-afl-trade/story-e6frg7mf-1226167594335

Nothing really to stop them but if Fremantle offer us a bad deal and we don't accept, we say Hogan you can go to West Coast, what do you think Fremantle are going to do?

I might be wrong on the Mitch Clark stuff, I just remenber but what Brisbane asked for that Fremantle refused, they then offered it. Could be wrong.

To me it doesn't matter if we get a deal this or next year, both will be unders to us. We should be trying to keep our star player more than anything, and if Hogan leaves the following year and we get less value as you say (I don't agree that'll will happen) I still think its worth giving us as long as possible to try and keep him. We are not going to get back a player anywhere near as good in return either way.

 

[DemonTim]

Nothing really to stop them but if Fremantle offer us a bad deal and we don't accept, we say Hogan you can go to West Coast, what do you think Fremantle are going to do?

I might be wrong on the Mitch Clark stuff, I just remenber but what Brisbane asked for that Fremantle refused, they then offered it. Could be wrong.

To me it doesn't matter if we get a deal this or next year, both will be unders to us. We should be trying to keep our star player more than anything, and if Hogan leaves the following year and we get less value as you say (I don't agree that'll will happen) I still think its worth giving us as long as possible to try and keep him. We are not going to get back a player anywhere near as good in return either way.

Next year it'll more be up to Hogan than us. He's out of contract, he has the power. If WC are offering a better deal for Melbourne, but paying Jesse a lot less than Freo, he won't go there

If the club has the inkling he will leave next year, i'd rather him go this year. Gives us a start to prepare for life without him now, instead of putting another year into him