Strategy Trade and List Management thread 2.(...the waiting for the hammer to fall edition)

[Golden_6]

So who else are we tipping out to get a guy like brand?

Even with hamling going, someone else needs to be moved off the main list.

There's still a few that could move. Prudden to rookie list, Honey (?) and who knows what Boyd will decide to do when the emotion settles down.

 

[Mofra]

I don't disagree with much of this, but where is the tipping point? At what point do our backline deficiencies become so prominent that our midfield can no longer cover them?

It's interesting to note that with Hamling in the side we went 9-3, losing an unlucky one against Hawthorn, getting smashed in the middle against the Cats, and not turning up against the Dockers. Without him we went 6-4. Of course, this is a shallow analysis that shouldn't be considered in isolation - but it is an interesting thing to note I think. I don't believe you can keep taking things out of the area of deficiency to bolster your strength. At some point you have to try to equalise. Taking Hamling out and replacing him with somebody less proven could be that tipping point.

I also don't believe Jong is in our best side. If he is, he's almost the last one picked. Depth is extremely important, particularly in our area of strength, and as I said I'm happy to have kept him - but I struggle to view Jong as being more crucial than Hamling.

Of course, I could be entirely wrong. Somebody else could come in and perform just as well or even better - and let's not forget the possibility that Jong leaving may not have done enough to allow Hamling to stay, either. I'm simply pointing it out as a possibility. We will likely never know the answer to that question.

Should also probably note that I don't think Hamling is a star KPD or anything of the sort. He has benefited from our system and our midfield. He has his deficiencies. I do think he's in our best side, though, and I worry about the effect losing him will have on our backline - particularly if, god forbid, the end comes quicker than we all hope for Morris.

The issue with Hamling is he has pace so can play on the medium forwards. Roberts can't and Collins looks a bit slow so he can't either, which means realistically Collins and Roberts are playing for the same spot.
Morris hasn't got long left, which leaves Cordy who I really, really rate but he has the shoulders of a Cordy so we do need some cover back there.

A lot rests on Adams and his ability to get back on the park with an injury that has actually killed careers, so losing Hamling would be a huge roll of the dice for us even if we had faith in all of our other KPDs.

 

[Struggle]

No it's not. The Mayne compensation is.. which will probably be 23

Hill isn't worth a pick inside 40. I'll spew up if he gets more than hamling

 

[Doggy]

So who else are we tipping out to get a guy like brand?

Even with hamling going, someone else needs to be moved off the main list.

Why?

Whilst i don't even see the dogs having interest in Brand, i don't see hom being worth any more than our 2nd rounder.. and we hopefully get 35 from freo

 

[Dav1d]

You are happy with pick 34/5 if Hamling leaves?

With all of the academy players and some teams possibly even finished before then, it's not SO bad. Not great but..yeah.

 

[Dogsman16]

So who else are we tipping out to get a guy like brand?

Even with hamling going, someone else needs to be moved off the main list.

Trade out Honeychurch.

3rd year player and can only manage 2 games.

Webb, Dale etc move up the depth chart.

 

[Sentinel]

I agree with the sentiment of a few on here that we can lose Hamling. In the ideal world, he resigns at our original offer. But I'm glad the club is not baulking and raising the offer significantly.

Whilst I think he played exceptionally well in the finals, I still believe it was a little overrated - our team defence has been the key to our defence this year, and Hamling was a cog in that at the end of the year. He couldn't even crack into the side for most of the year and our defence held up just fine without him. We will lose Morris in a year or two, but hopefully by that stage Cordy and Collins have developed and Adams can stay on the park.

If he regresses back to his form for the majority of 2016, I'd hate to be paying Hamling 400-500k to sit in the twos on the back on 4-5 solid finals games whilst our cap gets tighter and tighter as our better players come into their prime and out of contract. We can't have short memories - the fact he was on many's radar for delisting as late as round 18 is telling, although he very clearly worked his way out of that position.

I'll be sad to see him go, but not devastated.

 

[Doggy]

Hill isn't worth a pick inside 40. I'll spew up if he gets more than hamling

The deal is done.. hawthorn and freo have agreed to yrade the Mayne compo.. which happens to be way over Mayne's value and around 23

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Minson
Hamling
Hrovat
Stevens

I think we only need 4?

Cloke needs a list spot as well.

Why?

Whilst i don't even see the dogs having interest in Brand, i don't see hom being worth any more than our 2nd rounder.. and we hopefully get 35 from freo

Need to take three selections at the draft and we're trading in Cloke. That's four list spots. If we trade in another player we need one more.

 

[compact72]

PIES HAVE THEIR HANDS FULL

There's a bit of news at the Holden Centre. List manager Derek Hine summed up all of the Magpies' trade deals this morning on NAB AFL Trade Radio.

• The Pies would like to secure GWS midfielder Will Hoskin-Elliott but there is "a bit to play out" with the club yet to speak with the Giants about a deal

• The Magpies will speak with Gold Coast on Wednesday afternoon about a deal to send ruckman Jarrod Witts to the Suns

• The Brisbane Lions are "on the same page" about a trade to send Jack Frost to the club

• Marley Williams hasn't attracted interest and the Pies will address his future after their main trades are completed. He hasn't asked for a trade but his manager is speaking to rival clubs

• A deal sending Travis Cloke to the Western Bulldogs is close

 

[Doggy]

Cloke needs a list spot as well.



Need to take three selections at the draft and we're trading in Cloke. That's four list spots. If we trade in another player we need one more.

Not if the Brand stuff is real.. a 3 way deal where essentially it is a trade of Brand for Hamling

 

[Dogsman16]

Not if the Brand stuff is real.. a 3 way deal where essentially it is a trade of Brand for Hamling

If Hamling goes, I'm not giving up that same pick for Brand. Hamling more proven.

I'd give up our 2nd and keep that pick 34 that Freo should give us.

 

[Rookie]

So who else are we tipping out to get a guy like brand?

Even with hamling going, someone else needs to be moved off the main list.

It'll still be Prudden, with a promise to get him in the rookie draft IMO.

 

[Wizard17]

So is the Hawks board melting like an ice cream in a bushfire yet?

 

[yebiga]

How is Campbell 5th in line. He's third in line for the two ruck spots. Acquiring Cloke makes absolutely no difference to Campbell.

Cloke fills Cordys role anyway. Not sure about that one MD.

If you spend a lot of time in institutions like I have - you are forced to queue up for lines all day. There is a queue to get your breakfast, another for medication, then morning tea, etcetera. Your in line to go to toilet and to get your ice cream. If your late in line you might soil yourself or miss out on cookies.

After awhile you see lines everywhere and panic.

 

[Barking Mad]

I think we're lucky that our list management guys aren't short sighted and probably pay no attention to Bf or other forms or social media.
Here's my take....

Our Flag Came about by having real depth. Without it we may never have been in the 8 to even have a chance.
Jong Can step up to midfield if we get an injury or 2. Don't forget Wallis won't be back for a while and many have complications with this sort of injury. I'm not expecting much from him this year so we're as good as 1 down before starting. We have invested a lot of time in him and year on year he has improved and obviously buys into our team practices. health having youngsters ones having to fight him for any spares spot that my open.
Campbell Should we lose either of Boyd or Roughy then he will be needed. Cloke isn't there for rucking duties. Still only young for a ruckman with potentially his best yet to be seen. Not on huge coin so keeping him a big plus.
Prudden Can't be considered a depth player as he hardly manages to take the field. Given he was drafted in 2012 the club must see a huge upside to him having persevered this long. willing to back them in on this one. I'm a fan of his left foot.
Hamling Young, got opportunity due to injury. given Moz has only a couple of years left (could he do a Harvey) we need to look ahead. Adams has an injury that concerns me so no given he's come back ok. Already came from a club where your stripes had to be earned so has been well invested in over his career.
Cloke -potential signing Costing us bugger all and worth a shot. our forward structure still a work in progress. Will Crameri return as good after a year off? Will Jakey continue he form slump? If Tommy goes down we have TC only. See how it pans out but I'd hazard to say it will either have us in raptures or with another Footscray flag. Thumping field kick which I'm sure has the likes of McLean, Picko, Dickson, Crameri, The Dollhouse and co a bit excited running into open goals.

Depth-proven Dunkley (may have missed if not for Libba and Wallis going down when they did)
Mclean (would there have been opportunity if Crameri avail?)
Roberts Calling him a battler would be wrong as he's managed to play more AFL games than many before him. Was pretty solid when the pressure was on and provides coverage should 1 or 2 taller back go down. Again not on huge coin. Age no barrier.

Depth Hrovat, Honeychurch, Webb, Dale, Stevens (some great games but fails at consistency), Hamilton, Williams, Smith
All can play but i see as our real worth. They are our currency that is required to replace the likes of M Boyd, Moz, Murphy when they call (or Bev does) time on their careers. This list is the one we continue to grow with youngsters. The odd will become a gun with the rest having their value increased to allow us to attract specific players seen as a need. I'm not saying we get rid of them all but just as an example of what currency we have whilst not smashing open the piggy bank (trading a top 22 player)

I didn't include Collins as he's shown little due to injury. Being a big lug he has 3 years to start showing something then keep improving (just as i thought of Tommy).

 

[House_of_Dahl]

16 vs 12, you're correct. But Koby Stevens played 12 games this year and most are actively pushing him out the door. It's not as simple as comparing 2016 game totals. If I'm creating a hypothetical 2017 round one team, Hamling is picked straight after Morris as a key defender. Jong is selected if there's room for another mid/forward rotation after Bontempelli, Liberatore, Dahlhaus, Macrae, Hunter, Picken, Smith and Dickson, and is in the same conversation as Wallis*, Suckling, Dunkley, McLean, Webb and Daniel.

Dunno, reckon Adam's is picked next and then Fletch was also selected over Hamling for much of the season too (despite what we might do). Then next year Cordy would probably be in the same conversation with Hamling with Cloke moving into the forward line. And we select 6-10 midfielders and mid/fwds versus 2-3 tall defenders so the number of players is a bit deceptive.

I'd rather we were able to keep Hamling too, but don't think he is as definite a lock in the 22 next year as is being made out - played well in (most of) the finals but has been inconsistent otherwise and in and out of the 22. But agree that if he does get that consistency he's great for us with his athleticism that Roberts (and Collins) lack.

 

[jdz101]

So is the Hawks board melting like an ice cream in a bushfire yet?

Why would it be? They have once again pushed out old, declining salary and replaced it with prime, elite talent.

Once the dust settles after this trade period everyone will recognize the genius of what they've done.

 

[bullish23]

If the crows are considering Cameron as part of the Gibbs deal could we come to the party and offer our first for Cameron and then the blues end up with 13 and 18.

Charlie would be an awesome fit at the dogs. To me Adelaide probably get shafted in that deal but if they want Gibbs who's under contract they don't have a lot of bargaining power. Would also require Cameron wanting to get to the dogs over Carlton.

Pure hypothetical.

 

[Wizard17]

Why would it be? They have once again pushed out old, declining salary and replaced it with prime, elite talent.

Once the dust settles after this trade period everyone will recognize the genius of what they've done.

I think the same but I don't think that some Hawk supporters will see it that way.

 

[jdz101]

I think the same but I don't think that some Hawk supporters will see it that way.

Yeah I can't empathize with the emotional attachment to Mitchell because Mitchell is a dooshbag in my eyes.

Purely from an emotionless list management perspective it's genius.

 

[Dogsman16]

If the crows are considering Cameron as part of the Gibbs deal could we come to the party and offer our first for Cameron and then the blues end up with 13 and 18.

Charlie would be an awesome fit at the dogs. To me Adelaide probably get shafted in that deal but if they want Gibbs who's under contract they don't have a lot of bargaining power. Would also require Cameron wanting to get to the dogs over Carlton.

Pure hypothetical.

I can nip this in the bud pretty quickly. Charlie is overseas currently. And knowing him personally I'd be flabbergasted if he left Adelaide. Especially how close he is with Eddie Betts as well.

Won't be happening.

 

[JTCWBFC]

If the crows are considering Cameron as part of the Gibbs deal could we come to the party and offer our first for Cameron and then the blues end up with 13 and 18.

Charlie would be an awesome fit at the dogs. To me Adelaide probably get shafted in that deal but if they want Gibbs who's under contract they don't have a lot of bargaining power. Would also require Cameron wanting to get to the dogs over Carlton.

Pure hypothetical.

Totally agree on this and was about to post something similar.

Our side could use another express player, this bloke is a jet.

 

[BRWB]

If you spend a lot of time in institutions like I have - you are forced to queue up for lines all day. There is a queue to get your breakfast, another for medication, then morning tea, etcetera. Your in line to go to toilet and to get your ice cream. If your late in line you might soil yourself or miss out on cookies.

After awhile you see lines everywhere and panic.

This post explains a lot.

 

[Boristown]

I can nip this in the bud pretty quickly. Charlie is overseas currently. And knowing him personally I'd be flabbergasted if he left Adelaide. Especially how close he is with Eddie Betts as well.

Won't be happening.

I'd ban players from going overseas during trade week. You never know what deal might pop up.

Port would be absolutely flogging themselves that the Lobbe deal wasn't done last year due to him being out of reach. Bush league.