List Mgmt. 2017 Trade & FA Targets Part 2

[Yawkey way]

Have I missed something & this trade period is our last chance to get talent into the club? Is free agency being closed? No more kids drafted?

What a load of BS.

A shocking argument. We have no A Grade talent so let's not trade for an A Grade talent.

FMD.

Once you make a buddy like commitment it's on the books for years, it decreases your flexibility if you aren't close how does that advantage us.

I see this as putting the cart before the horse, why put ourselves in that situation if we aren't close.

Now if you say you think the offseason will put us close then fair enough, that's just a different opinion.

My problem is with people who seem to think we aren't close but what the hell overpay for a gun and be damned, I've been there before and it was a waste of time, we cheered the champ and got smashed a lot.

 

[VDS66]

Here's what I posted after the Member's night in August 2013. You tell me where they have stuffed up & left the plan;

I was lucky enough to go along last night & it was an absolutely outstanding initiative by the club. It was all a bit of a blur with some great insight into the future direction of our beloved club. Here's a few things that I can remember;
The night started with Shane Wakelin (filling in for Nettles who was in NZ signing off on an extension of the Wellington deal) who amongst other things confirmed;

*NZ deal to stay at 1 game per year for the next 3 years. Possibility to extend to 1 pre season & another H&A game.
*Saints keen to sign alignment with Sandy for another 2 years. Saints stand alone team playing out of Moorabbin from 2016.
*Moorabbin #1 Community Development Priority for the AFL

Wakes introduced Chris who ran through a brief career history & background of how he came to be at St Kilda. His heartfelt insight into his relationship with Yabby showed to all present that this man is not only the right man for the job of building a St Kilda Premiership side but also that it is a very personal quest for him. Yabby asked Chris to "look after my Saints" during their last time together before the great man passed...

A summary of where our list sits against other clubs (a bit depressing) followed by an analysis of drafting/retention rates (morbid depression) set the picture of where we are & where we need to go.

Chris compared our current situation to where Hawthorn was in 2004 (& he intimately knows both situations).

The list analysis explained how clubs rate players both at their club & at all other clubs using Champion Data & some internal analysis. Chris spoke of the top 12 players at a club being the key to finals success & ran through how premiership teams from 1999-2012 rated (Bris of 2002 & Geel of 2009 were rated the best sides of that timeframe & had 15 Category 1 (elite across the whole competition) or Category 2 (very high consistent performers) player in their sides. He did say that St Kilda was exceptionally unlucky to cop the equal best side of the last 15 years when we had our highest rated side (12 Cat.1 or 2 players).

There was a strategic list plan, including trade targets (with names XXXX'ed out unfortunately) but a goal of having 4 top 20 picks during the next 3 drafts (so a need to trade in another 1st round pick at some stage- possibly this year). A few trade/draft points summarised;

*CP categorically stated that pick 3 would not be traded.

*GWS playing funny buggers with pick 1- attempting to destablise clubs.

* Talking with 5 key defenders (1 of who contracted- which I assume is Frawley) Age ranging from 19-27.

*Supporters should prepare for unpopular decisions at trade time.

*Dal's contract trigger point- games played- has been reached. Will remain on FA list until his new contract has been submitted to the AFL (which will be after the FA period).

*2014=tough... 2015=sneak up on a few sides, positive signs...2016=clear positive momentum...2017= finals....2018-22= challenging for flag

*Said that should Saad's B sample be positive he will be unable to attend the club in any way shape or form other than to provide anti drug education sessions or receive drug counselling. He can't be employed as a groundsman, in marketing or anything. They are very concerned about Saady's welfare & how the club can support him. They are awaiting direction from the AFL as to whether he can remain on the list.

There was heaps more (Chris spoke for 2 hours) so I'll add some more as it comes back to me.

I left feeling more positive & excited about our future than at any time I can remember. As members we need to hang tough & see this period out..... & get as many supporters to financially support the club as possible.

I said to a mate at the time that I reckon Pelchen could be our best recruit ever... after last night I am absolutely convinced of that. Good times are ahead...

--------------------
The highlighted sections are relevant to your viewpoint. Despite terribly inconsistent performances we are still in the mix to sneak into the finals.

Your argument that the plan hasn't worked is like pulling a lamb roast out of the oven after 30 minutes and complaining that it's undercooked. This post season is critical in bringing in more talent. This season has seen some real positives but also the inconsistent performances that developing teams throw up from time to time.

Your opinion is well noted. No one is right until we can look back in hindsight. Getting aggro about it & acting like you know it all is pretty pointless. I had an argument with someone on here early last season when I posted that I saw similarities between 2016 & 2003. Whoever that was certainly didnt think we woulc only miss out on the finals by percentage.

As a Saints supporter you can either be a defeatist and be right often or be positive and one day be able to say 'stick that right up your ar5e' to the naysayers.

Nice of you to repost that.

OK so for the sake of the exercise, he was saying that it comes down to you top 12 players and their respective categories.

Forgetting elite or a grade for the moment, let's look at our top 12...

Geary
Jake
Robbo
Newnes
Ross
Steven
Gilbert (consistent performer)
Bruce
Billings
Members

That's 11 with maybe 2 or 3 that A grade borderline elite.

With the exception of Gilbert and Geary, there is still potential improvement to come from the rest.

In terms of his role, you can argue Brown is B+.

Then you have fringe players who are yet to reach 50 games like Steele, Acres and Gresh. Not sure how many Jimmy has played, but this is his breakout year.

Overall, not too bad.

We have discussed our need for outside run. I understand concerns, but not only would we fill a gap on our list, but do so with a very good player who is yet to peak.

There were a few that though Jake was expensive at the time...

 

[VDS66]

Once you make a buddy like commitment it's on the books for years, it decreases your flexibility if you aren't close how does that advantage us.

I see this as putting the cart before the horse, why put ourselves in that situation if we aren't close.

Now if you say you think the offseason will put us close then fair enough, that's just a different opinion.

My problem is with people who seem to think we aren't close but what the hell overpay for a gun and be damned, I've been there before and it was a waste of time, we cheered the champ and got smashed a lot.

Mate mate mate mate mate...

We had Roo on big coin for over 10 years.

What screwed us was what we paid the underlings like Ball and Kosi.

You say cart before the horse, I say chicken or the egg.

How do you get close if you don't have the talent in the first place?

Are you happy to wait an extra 3 years to get close, by using the draft?

Because if you are then you are contradicting yourself when you day the plan gas failed.

Can't have it both ways.

 

[gringo2011]

Nice of you to repost that.

OK so for the sake of the exercise, he was saying that it comes down to you top 12 players and their respective categories.

Forgetting elite or a grade for the moment, let's look at our top 12...

Geary
Jake
Robbo
Newnes
Ross
Steven
Gilbert (consistent performer)
Bruce
Billings
Members

That's 11 with maybe 2 or 3 that A grade borderline elite.

With the exception of Gilbert and Geary, there is still potential improvement to come from the rest.

In terms of his role, you can argue Brown is B+.

Then you have fringe players who are yet to reach 50 games like Steele, Acres and Gresh. Not sure how many Jimmy has played, but this is his breakout year.

Overall, not too bad.

We have discussed our need for outside run. I understand concerns, but not only would we fill a gap on our list, but do so with a very good player who is yet to peak.

There were a few that though Jake was expensive at the time...

I don't think anyone will say they wouldn't love to have either Kelly or Martin, it's just the terms of trade and their pay packets that have me concerned. I worry that if you get yourselves excited and Kelly isn't quite Jesus with a jetpack the cheer leaders will turn quickly on the club. Tempering the expectations for a guy who was drafted at the same time as Billings is probably better for him and us. The expectations crippled Boyd, Scully etc. You don't get too many able to cope with the added pressure of expectation.

 

[FlyingSledghamer]

Im with Yawkey on this one. I think we played below par this year. Partly because where we finished. But mostly because of how badly we played some games. The Adelaide, Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong and the 2 Sydney losses hurt.
We cant deny we were pumped in quite a few games this year. Draw was harder but no excuses for that.
However some experienced players were well down. Newnes and Steven were bigger last year and no Armo all year hurt. Steele only just started playing seniors and Roo was down on last years output. A hanful of our younger top end kids didnt fire on preseason expectations either. And for some crazy reason our conversion went to shite.
But despite all that we wernt that far off. A lot didnt go to plan. But there are signs.
Ive given up on trying to assess where were at.
Kellys gona be a superstar, theres no doubting that and it sounds like he's keen on us.
Superstars usually dont pick us. Were very lucky. Theyll find other players to plug some holes and i think we just need to get a few experienced assistants to help Richo and we'll be just fine.

 

[Rors]

Once you make a buddy like commitment it's on the books for years, it decreases your flexibility if you aren't close how does that advantage us.

I see this as putting the cart before the horse, why put ourselves in that situation if we aren't close.

Now if you say you think the offseason will put us close then fair enough, that's just a different opinion.

My problem is with people who seem to think we aren't close but what the hell overpay for a gun and be damned, I've been there before and it was a waste of time, we cheered the champ and got smashed a lot.

You're so critical of the idea of these 2, but what is the alternative you're suggesting? Dislike the notion of trading for these guys as much as you like but what is your solution?

Take into account that if we don't spend 105% of the cap next year, we lose the right to pay 105% in 2018 & 2019. And we have about $3mil extra in the cap for next year

 

[VDS66]

I don't think anyone will say they wouldn't love to have either Kelly or Martin, it's just the terms of trade and their pay packets that have me concerned. I worry that if you get yourselves excited and Kelly isn't quite Jesus with a jetpack the cheer leaders will turn quickly on the club. Tempering the expectations for a guy who was drafted at the same time as Billings is probably better for him and us. The expectations crippled Boyd, Scully etc. You don't get too many able to cope with the added pressure of expectation.

I am certainly no cheer leader.

 

[gringo2011]

You're so critical of the idea of these 2, but what is the alternative you're suggesting? Dislike the notion of trading for these guys as much as you like but what is your solution?

Take into account that if we don't spend 105% of the cap next year, we lose the right to pay 105% in 2018 & 2019. And we have about $3mil extra in the cap for next year

That's fine but I'm guessing we will front load to pay the cap out, unfortunately that can backfire by setting huge expectations on pay packets. So would you pay Kelly $3 mill in his first year and taper it?

 

[gringo2011]

I am certainly no cheer leader.

You are a very positive guy then.

 

[Rors]

Im with Yawkey on this one. I think we played below par this year. Partly because where we finished. But mostly because of how badly we played some games. The Adelaide, Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong and the 2 Sydney losses hurt.
We cant deny we were pumped in quite a few games this year. Draw was harder but no excuses for that.
However some experienced players were well down. Newnes and Steven were bigger last year and no Armo all year hurt. Steele only just started playing seniors and Roo was down on last years output. A hanful of our younger top end kids didnt fire on preseason expectations either. And for some crazy reason our conversion went to shite.
But despite all that we wernt that far off. A lot didnt go to plan. But there are signs.
Ive given up on trying to assess where were at.
Kellys gona be a superstar, theres no doubting that and it sounds like he's keen on us.
Superstars usually dont pick us. Were very lucky. Theyll find other players to plug some holes and i think we just need to get a few experienced assistants to help Richo and we'll be just fine.

Season isn't over mate. We still have to play 3 teams above us to finish the year, let's wait to see how we go before saying we were below par.

I think we're about par, prob win 11-12 games with harder draw, less heavy floggings though, better interstate performances, possibly more wins against teams above us. 2 first round picks & $3mil in the cap - bring on 2018.... but 2017 ain't over either

 

[SaintSteele9]

Bearing in mind this is a 22 year old kid who, in a year filled with constant contract speculation, has carved out a pretty strong year across the board. I have really respected that.

There are no silver bullets in footy, anyone with half a brain and their emotions vaguely in check will agree. JK or DM would absolutely not be "the fix", just a bloody good step in the right direction in my opinion. I love watching them play and I want to love watching guys of that calibre play for my club.

 

[gringo2011]

Season isn't over mate. We still have to play 3 teams above us to finish the year, let's wait to see how we go before saying we were below par.

I think we're about par, prob win 11-12 games with harder draw, less heavy floggings though, better interstate performances, possibly more wins against teams above us. 2 first round picks & $3mil in the cap - bring on 2018.... but 2017 ain't over either

That's probably not discounting what he said, he claimed that we have underperformed but we still have time to turn it around. I'm hoping Rooey will boost their output and get us up for the rest of our matches.

 

[Rors]

That's fine but I'm guessing we will front load to pay the cap out, unfortunately that can backfire by setting huge expectations on pay packets. So would you pay Kelly $3 mill in his first year and taper it?

How the hell would I know how they spread the TPP?!

We could get Kelly on $1mil & Martin on $1.3mil & still have $700k spare.

Seriously, I'm not sure what the fuss is about. Armo is on about $800k, Steven about the same, and neither are in the same ball park or scope for improvement as Martin & Kelly

 

[gringo2011]

Bearing in mind this is a 22 year old kid who, in a year filled with constant contract speculation, has carved out a pretty strong year across the board. I have really respected that.

There are no silver bullets in footy, anyone with half a brain and their emotions vaguely in check will agree. JK or DM would absolutely not be "the fix", just a bloody good step in the right direction in my opinion. I love watching them play and I want to love watching guys of that calibre play for my club.

The only counter to that would be that GWS is not really a club under a lot of scrutiny. Being in the Melbourne fishbowl is pretty oppressive.

 

[VDS66]

You are a very positive guy then.

Yes I am.

Firstly, it's a sport and regardless of how we travel, it's something I can walk away from, as it doesn't make my Top 10 list of priorities.

It's like an old project car. You love it in a weird way.

Secondly I have firm views on business decisions. To that end of you want the best recruits, you have to pay them accordingly.

If the others get cranky, then they can either increase their output and paid accordingly or they can bugger off and be replaced by someone who will produce according to their pay level.

As I posted earlier, we had Roo on big coin for a good 10 years.

If it comes to stage that you point out, then you adapt accordingly. Nothing is set in concrete.

Thirdly, I have learned to not get worried about events that are yet to occur, or that I do not have the facts on.

 

[gringo2011]

How the hell would I know how they spread the TPP?!

We could get Kelly on $1mil & Martin on $1.3mil & still have $700k spare.

Seriously, I'm not sure what the fuss is about. Armo is on about $800k, Steven about the same, and neither are in the same ball park or scope for improvement as Martin & Kelly

You seem to be an expert. North supposedly have them at $1.5 each, if that's their offer I can't imagine he comes for $1 mill.

 

[Rors]

Yes I am.

Firstly, it's a sport and regardless of how we travel, it's something I can walk away from, as it doesn't make my Top 10 list of priorities.

It's like an old project car. You love it in a weird way.

Secondly I have firm views on business decisions. To that end of you want the best recruits, you have to pay them accordingly.

If the others get cranky, then they can either increase their output and paid accordingly or they can bugger off and be replaced by someone who will produce according to their pay level.

As I posted earlier, we had Roo on big coin for a good 10 years.

If it comes to stage that you point out, then you adapt accordingly. Nothing is set in concrete.

Thirdly, I have learned to not get worried about events that are yet to occur, or that I do not have the facts on.

It's the Roo on big coin argument that annoys me the most. Bloke was worth every cent, it was the overpriced contracts of Kosi, Ball, etc.... Similar to what's happening at Sydney, Buddy is worth every cent, it's Tippett on $850k that's ****ing everything up as he's not even performing to the level a guy on $400k should be achieving

 

[VDS66]

You seem to be an expert. North supposedly have them at $1.5 each, if that's their offer I can't imagine he comes for $1 mill.

We'll it's all speculation, and players have been known to accept less than open market value.

It all depends o what their priorities are.

Ricky and Junior are all about the $$$ for example.

 

[gringo2011]

Yes I am.

Firstly, it's a sport and regardless of how we travel, it's something I can walk away from, as it doesn't make my Top 10 list of priorities.

It's like an old project car. You love it in a weird way.

Secondly I have firm views on business decisions. To that end of you want the best recruits, you have to pay them accordingly.

If the others get cranky, then they can either increase their output and paid accordingly or they can bugger off and be replaced by someone who will produce according to their pay level.

As I posted earlier, we had Roo on big coin for a good 10 years.

If it comes to stage that you point out, then you adapt accordingly. Nothing is set in concrete.

Thirdly, I have learned to not get worried about events that are yet to occur, or that I do not have the facts on.

I have firm views on business decisions too, I don't like waste and I don't trust most people not to be idiots unless they own the business or are personally gaining from the upwards trajectory. I love the club like a ****ed up girlfriend that keeps breaking your heart and you keep coming back for more punishment despite all your sound judgement suggesting it's self destructive madness.

Rooey probably stopped us getting more pieces of the puzzle in. I don't buy that argument.

 

[gringo2011]

We'll it's all speculation, and players have been known to accept less than open market value.

It all depends o what their priorities are.

Ricky and Junior are all about the $$$ for example.

I know not of these strange nicknames. Who is this Ricky you speak of.

 

[VDS66]

I have firm views on business decisions too, I don't like waste and I don't trust most people not to be idiots unless they own the business or are personally gaining from the upwards trajectory. I love the club like a ****** up girlfriend that keeps breaking your heart and you keep coming back for more punishment despite all your sound judgement suggesting it's self destructive madness.

Rooey probably stopped us getting more pieces of the puzzle in. I don't buy that argument.

That last sentence... are you trying to wind me up? Because it's working a treat.

Tell me why Lyon couldn't acquire some decent talent to top up...

Was it Roo's salary was it?

Do ya thunk we might not have played in the big dance if it wasn't for Roo?

Or do us thunk it had something to do with the bs contracts of Ball and Kosi to name a few?

 

[VDS66]

I know not of these strange nicknames. Who is this Ricky you speak of.

Rocky... smart arse.

 

[Rors]

You seem to be an expert. North supposedly have them at $1.5 each, if that's their offer I can't imagine he comes for $1 mill.

Not the spilt of the TPP, I know nothing of that.

It's the cap, it's easy to work out.

Current cap is $10.37mil, which means we have 105% of that to spend next year = $10.88mil

But, the cap got a 20% increase to $12.45mil for 2018 & beyond. Thus, our cap next year is either $12.96mil or $13.07mil. Just depends if the AFL allow us the 105% of the new cap or just add the difference of the current cap at 105% to the new $12.45mil cap for next year

 

[Murraj1966]

Once you make a buddy like commitment it's on the books for years, it decreases your flexibility if you aren't close how does that advantage us.

I see this as putting the cart before the horse, why put ourselves in that situation if we aren't close.

Now if you say you think the offseason will put us close then fair enough, that's just a different opinion.

My problem is with people who seem to think we aren't close but what the hell overpay for a gun and be damned, I've been there before and it was a waste of time, we cheered the champ and got smashed a lot.

Incorrect.

We got Jake at the end of 2015 but he's still here playing good footy.

What if we passed on Jelly and he goes to Norf and then 2 years later we're still cashed up but playing pissant finals that mean nothing and going nowhere?

You never ever pass on a talent like Kelly if he's available and willing to come. He's not just playing for 2018 then packing up! If you told that to Richo and the team that we shouldn't get a star player because the timing isn't 100% perfect what would they say?

 

[TheKanga]

Hey guys
Just wondering how confident you are on getting either Dusty or Josh Kelly?