Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

[F_therest]

Not liking the latest rumours...first that our chances of getting Kelly at all has fallen since north are back in it, and secondly if we do get him it's apparently likely to be a whopping 9 year deal...

Bloody north and their ridiculous offer.

 

[HBF]

I think deserves is a bit rich. Club owes him nothing. He has done very well out of his deal at Carlton for little return. Been okay this year but not exactly vital to our growth and I can't see him getting better. If the club wants to give him another year that's fine but I would hope he understands that a lot of it may be mentoring in the two's. With natural progression and another 8-10 new players in 2018 I hope he is not a regular.

If you base the contract extension on his body of work from this year then I think he does deserve a 1 year extension. The guidance he gives our younger players by all accounts is very good also. Add this up, and I think he plays on next year.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

In the four years with Buddy the Swans have made the grand final twice, and may even make it 3 out of 4. I don't think they're missing the likes of Lamb, Everitt or a mid tier ruck.

No one was suggesting they are being missed or the decision to recruit Buddy at the expense of these players was wrong, the reply was to a question of who else other then Tom Mitchell has left the Swans.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Simon Minton-Connell ...

David Rhys-Jones...

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

As per my previous post: "No concerns that he leaves as an UFA at the end of 2019, chasing more money and a possible flag? The club would be smart to trade him this year or next, as the picks/value would be better"

From all the rumours, we already know that his contract was front-end loaded, so he is currently being paid under market value. If at the end of 2019, we are still outside the 8 (as I suspect), he can leave, chasing more money and a top 4 side, as an UFA and we have no control

Why would the club risk that?

By that stage Gibbs will qualify for a chunk of his salary to not go under the cap (can't remember if it's 50% or up to a certain amount). Not sure that a contending club would have cash to splash around on an aging veteran. His best bet for one last pay day when this contract is over, might be with us. If he can get $750k with $300k not counted in the cap for instance.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Interesting article on the AFL website about Josh Kelly:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-29/what-giant-demand-will-see-kelly-head-south

Under Carlton it says:


And in the conclusion:

They can smell what we're cooking

 

[Soapy V]

If you base the contract extension on his body of work from this year then I think he does deserve a 1 year extension. The guidance he gives our younger players by all accounts is very good also. Add this up, and I think he plays on next year.

We will have to disagree. If we are relying on one player as a mentor we are struggling. Club is better than that and he doesn't need to be a player to mentor. As for body of work like I said he has been "okay" but lacks in so many areas. Champion data have him as overall "poor" which is the lowest rating you can have. Odds are he won't even finish Top 10 in our B&F in a bottom 3 side. Not good for a senior player that has played most games

Like I said no issue if the club wants to give him another year but he needs to understand he could be playing a lot of two's footy. If Daisy is a regular in 2018 with continued improvement in kids but another 8-10 players (which could include Hopper Kelly & Balic) we haven't stepped up as much as I had hoped.

 

[1981]

We have bugger all depth and still have a lot of chumps, we are not in a position to give up two good picks for one player. The fact we don't have a second rounder further reinforces this.

 

[Soapy V]

We have bugger all depth and still have a lot of chumps, we are not in a position to give up two good picks for one player. The fact we don't have a second rounder further reinforces this.

If it comes down to Kelly or Hopper & Rayner which way would people go? The second option would also leave a lot more cash to chase some "big fish" in 2018

Personally, if we were close to contending probably Kelly but given I still believe we have a lot of holes in our list I would probably go the latter and wait another year

 

[Arr0w]

By that stage Gibbs will qualify for a chunk of his salary to not go under the cap (can't remember if it's 50% or up to a certain amount). Not sure that a contending club would have cash to splash around on an aging veteran. His best bet for one last pay day when this contract is over, might be with us. If he can get $750k with $300k not counted in the cap for instance.

I agree with that point, so if the club wants to retain his services, I would prefer that they approach him before the end of next year to extend his contract past free agency. If he declines, then I would seek to trade him at the end of next year

 

[Just Kreuzing]

We have bugger all depth and still have a lot of chumps, we are not in a position to give up two good picks for one player. The fact we don't have a second rounder further reinforces this.

Surely if we give up 2 picks we will have to have an extra player or pick coming back our way yeah ?

 

[TD2010]

To me it's not a could question. Yes, we could pay Kelly 1.75M a year for two years in a massively front-loaded contract.

I just don't think we should.

It doesn't matter how you shake it, if you start paying a player that sort of coin, you raise the expectations of the rest of your list... not worth it.

Let's grow from within.

I think we'll get St Kilda sort of progress just staying within. Kelly is a player that will help you get top 4. Judd only got us to 6th remember.

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[Soapy V]

I think we'll get St Kilda sort of progress just staying within. Kelly is a player that will help you get top 4. Judd only got us to 6th remember.

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Bad example. If Judd came in with the talent culture & coaching we have now I reckon it would be a much different story

 

[Coops93]

Bad example. If Judd came in with the talent culture & coaching we have now I reckon it would be a much different story

Also, if Fev had stayed.

During those years of (albeit short term) success the only thing stopping us from being a genuine contender was a key forward.

 

[Quazza]

They can smell what we're cooking

shame we burnt the toast years ago

 

[G-TRAIN07]

 

[TD2010]

Bad example. If Judd came in with the talent culture & coaching we have now I reckon it would be a much different story

Fair enough, still though how many would have turned out to be elite? With Kelly we'd be looking at 3 at least: him, Cripps, Charlie.

Bring an elite forward (and/or fingers crossed develop our own) and we're ready

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[teagueyubeauty]

Don't work

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Fair enough, still though how many would have turned out to be elite? With Kelly we'd be looking at 3 at least: him, Cripps, Charlie.

Bring an elite forward (and/or fingers crossed develop our own) and we're ready

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Could be the Lynch pin to our next serious tilt at a flag....

 

[BlueJet]

If it comes down to Kelly or Hopper & Rayner which way would people go? The second option would also leave a lot more cash to chase some "big fish" in 2018

Personally, if we were close to contending probably Kelly but given I still believe we have a lot of holes in our list I would probably go the latter and wait another year

Hopper & Rayner for mine, it gives us two bigger bodies with Cripps/Hopper allowing Rayner time to build his tank before looking to press for additional midfield minutes.
The additional benefit is that the two of them combined would take approximately half the cap space of a Kelly which in turn allows us room to manoeuvre with regard to Shiel/Lynch should they test free agency.
I certainly see the merit in securing a Kelly type but given his contract and trade requirements, I'm not as sure of it being worthwhile in the long run.

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[Soapy V]

Fair enough, still though how many would have turned out to be elite? With Kelly we'd be looking at 3 at least: him, Cripps, Charlie.

Bring an elite forward (and/or fingers crossed develop our own) and we're ready

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I'm not fussed on an elite forward. It would help but not neccesary. These days have elite running players and a good defence and you can win most games. Having said that I still believe McKay will be a star and a better midfield will really help our goal scoring and by a lot

 

[Cripps17]

No one was suggesting they are being missed or the decision to recruit Buddy at the expense of these players was wrong, the reply was to a question of who else other then Tom Mitchell has left the Swans.

The question came about based on the premise that offering Kelly a Buddy like deal would mean we woud lose important players e.g.

Was when Mumford and Mitchell left. A few others have been squeezed out, due to salary cap creep

Give Kelly a megabucks 9-year salary and you'll lose players of the calibre of Cripps, Docherty, Weitering and SPS by the half way point.

The question of the other players (and my post) was raised to counter this view.

 

[Cutz]

David Rhys-Jones...

Bernie Evans : /

 

[HereComesJuddy]

If it comes down to Kelly or Hopper & Rayner which way would people go? The second option would also leave a lot more cash to chase some "big fish" in 2018

Personally, if we were close to contending probably Kelly but given I still believe we have a lot of holes in our list I would probably go the latter and wait another year

Hopper and Rayner/Dow for me.
If Kelly was just pick 3 id be ok with that. But id suggest he will be more.

 

[MileHigh]

Also in the article it says that GWS will likely want Pick #3 and another first rounder or Player (we don't have a second rounder this year after giving that up to Geelong). Even if SOS plays hardball I cant see us getting out of it without giving up No#3 pick. Yet some on this board have very optimistic hopes that we'll get him and retain No #3. I mean what else would we have to give up?

Next years 1st rounder