Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

[ODNBlue]

Come on, mate.

I'm not suggesting equivalence... yet. I'm only suggesting that we too have father suns coming through that may play a significant role in our next premiership team.

I'm just not convinced selling the farm at this stage of our development is in our best interest.

 

[Jimmae]

Truth is, Hopper may very well be better than anyone we can take at pick 3 and Kelly is a rare talent, likely better than picks 1 this year and next.

Strongly disagree with the second half of this statement.

Kelly remains a player that you can shutout of the game, ie. he is predominantly outside/peripheral at the stoppage. His work rate is immense, but it can be overcome, and it won't always be there as he progresses and natural wear and tear sets in.

There are guys in the 2018 drafts who already look like they will be much more difficult to stop in their given positions (Lukosius, in particular) and a guy who even resembles Kelly's game (Rankine). Even 12 months out, you perhaps don't want to throw top 10 picks away for this draft.

 

[BigFrizz36]

for those thinking of potential homes for levi some interesting stats from this years goalkicking tables. levi kicked 34 goals. western bulldogs leading goalkickers 24. freo (McCarthy) 25. magpies (Elliott 34) and lions (zorko) 34.

 

[zeeCFC]

Strongly disagree with the second half of this statement.

Kelly remains a player that you can shutout of the game, ie. he is predominantly outside/peripheral at the stoppage. His work rate is immense, but it can be overcome, and it won't always be there as he progresses and natural wear and tear sets in.

There are guys in the 2018 drafts who already look like they will be much more difficult to stop in their given positions (Lukosius, in particular) and a guy who even resembles Kelly's game (Rankine).

By this logic, no outside player is ever good enough. Sloane gets shut out too, you'd take him any day of the week.

 

[Jimmae]

By this logic, no outside player is ever good enough. Sloane gets shut out too, you'd take him any day of the week.

Kelly is definitely better than Sloane, Merrett and a bunch of other elite players, but I've watched them all get their 30 and have limited influence on matches.

You can say the same thing about blokes who do nothing on the outside. That's what places Martin, Judd, Dangerfield, Ablett - and to a lesser extent Bontempelli, Wines and Cripps - ahead of many; they work on all parts of their game to the point where no matter the situation they find themselves in, they can make something happen with the footy in hand, and often without it too.

Most of them might not have the elite finishing skills or speed/endurance mix of Kelly, but they change games more.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

By this logic, no outside player is ever good enough. Sloane gets shut out too, you'd take him any day of the week.

I still wouldn't take Sloane for pick 3 and most likely a pick next year between 1-6 at this stage of a reset

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

If Gibbs stays, I think we should make a serious run at Kelly. He and Murph have maybe 4-5 years of quality football left and we need help now, not in 3-4 years time. Murphy, Gibbs, Ed as veterans. Cripps and Kelly entering their primes. SPS, Cunningham and other developing. It's a pretty handy midfield all of a sudden, particularly if we can add someone like Hopper.

Two issues cause me some disquiet though. First - is this the right time. Generally, it think yes except for the forward structure. McKay is 2-3 years away, despite the promising signs. But maybe Charlie and Jack's faster than expected progress is enough to convince them?

Secondly - what do we need to give up. Pick 3 ain't enough unless the kid really agitates to go, it really only gives GWS the possibility of replacing him with someone of his quality. But this year and next is a bit too much unless Hopper is somehow thrown in too

 

[Keyza]

I don't think people realise how much cap space we have free at the moment. If the Tigers can afford to pay Martin 1.2m for 7 years and still have Rance, Riewoldt, Cotchin, and Prestia on big money we'll be fine.

I think the biggest issue we have now is who to pay the money to. I believe we have somewhere in the vicinity of $3 million spare next year.

 

[Jeremias]

If Gibbs stays, I think we should make a serious run at Kelly.

Kelly should be a target regardless of where Bryce will be next season.

 

[Keyza]

Maybe we can spend all of the gap in the cap on Kelly. About 3 million in 1st year but give him 750k in 2019 and 500k in 2020-2026.

Total cost = 7.25 million over 9.

If he was happy with that then it is not such a bad idea. He would have money up front to buy a house.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Kelly should be a target regardless of where Bryce will be next season.

Personally, I agree. However, if Gibbs goes, I think it pushes out our timeline a couple of years, in which case I think Kelly is a bit less of a priority in the sense that we can afford to wait if the asking price is too high. If Gibbs is staying we can't afford to wait imo.

I'd happily trade this years and next first rounders for Kelly and Hopper but suspect that won't be quite enough

Cripps, Kelly, Gibbs, Murph, Hopper, Ed, SPS and the backing band is a top 4 midfield...

 

[kjr8]

Strongly disagree with the second half of this statement.

Kelly remains a player that you can shutout of the game, ie. he is predominantly outside/peripheral at the stoppage. His work rate is immense, but it can be overcome, and it won't always be there as he progresses and natural wear and tear sets in.

There are guys in the 2018 drafts who already look like they will be much more difficult to stop in their given positions (Lukosius, in particular) and a guy who even resembles Kelly's game (Rankine). Even 12 months out, you perhaps don't want to throw top 10 picks away for this draft.

So kids in upcoming drafts are bulletproof, cannot be overcome and supernatural, avoiding onset of wear and tear.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Robertio]

I'm not suggesting equivalence... yet. I'm only suggesting that we too have father suns coming through that may play a significant role in our next premiership team.

I'm just not convinced selling the farm at this stage of our development is in our best interest.

If it came to the point of selling the farm for Kelly i don't think SOS would. Throw in Hopper he might.

 

[Jimmae]

I still wouldn't take Sloane for pick 3 and most likely a pick next year between 1-6 at this stage of a reset

He did say Kelly AND Hopper.

 

[chunkylover53]

Kelly should be a target regardless of where Bryce will be next season.

Personally I think if we let Gibbs leave and don't land Kelly then our midfield will be worse than this year and we'll probably lose more games in 2018.

 

[Aphrodite]

Player reviews happening today and tomorrow.

Will know by the end of this week who is staying and leaving.

#bluemour

#ExitinterviewswithTrigg

 

[Jimmae]

So kids in upcoming drafts are bulletproof, cannot be overcome and supernatural, avoiding onset of wear and tear.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

No, Riewoldt clones with better kicking skills don't get so easily shut out of the game:



And Kelly clones who look more physically developed at the same age are cheaper than Kelly:

 

[SafeAsMilk]

No, Riewoldt clones with better kicking skills don't get so easily shut out of the game:



And Kelly clones who look more physically developed at the same age are cheaper than Kelly:

They'll be really good in five years time...

If they're not poached by an SA team before then.

 

[Jimmae]

They'll be really good in five years time...

If they're not poached by an SA team before then.

Nonsense, look at them, look at their work rate and skills: Rankine could play next year, and Lukosius will probably play regularly in his first season, leading the forward line in his 3rd.

My comments above are less speculative than your SA poaching ideas.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Strongly disagree with the second half of this statement.

Kelly remains a player that you can shutout of the game, ie. he is predominantly outside/peripheral at the stoppage. His work rate is immense, but it can be overcome, and it won't always be there as he progresses and natural wear and tear sets in.

There are guys in the 2018 drafts who already look like they will be much more difficult to stop in their given positions (Lukosius, in particular) and a guy who even resembles Kelly's game (Rankine). Even 12 months out, you perhaps don't want to throw top 10 picks away for this draft.

Kelly would average more contested possessions and clearances than anyone in our side bar Crippa. He's not soft.

 

[Quazza]

Kelly would average more contested possessions and clearances than anyone in our side bar Crippa. He's not soft.

from memory, Murph and Kelly are pretty similar stat-wise in CP's

 

[SafeAsMilk]

Nonsense, look at them, look at their work rate and skills: Rankine could play next year, and Lukosius will probably play regularly in his first season, leading the forward line in his 3rd.

My comments above are less speculative than your SA poaching ideas.

Rankine might play next year but his output won't be what Kelly's will be for 4 years.

What's speculative is guaranteeing that either of them will be available with our first round pick next year.

 

[zeeCFC]

Not to mention the SA go home factor.

 

[Jimmae]

Kelly would average more contested possessions and clearances than anyone in our side bar Crippa. He's not soft.

It's important to understand what a contested possession (the definition changed in 2011) is when you highlight a comparison like that, but at no point was I suggesting Kelly is soft.

First possession stats would be more telling if you want to boil it down to an individual stat, but it's not one stat that makes my point. It's 1st possession, plus contested, plus clearance, plus goal assist, plus playmaker, plus score involvement, plus clangers, plus time in possession, etc.

Rankine might play next year but his output won't be what Kelly's will be for 4 years.

What's speculative is guaranteeing that either of them will be available with our first round pick next year.

Let me make it easier for you: if the price for Kelly is this year's first and next year's second, we should cash out. At that point it's not about what GWS got for Treloar, what West Coast got for Judd, or any other historical scenario.

What it is about is the given contractual situation, the given market mechanisms involved, and what that trade will do for our football team versus a variety of other scenarios on the table, including keeping the picks.

Kelly is not worth two quality players.

 

[LanceRomance]

I need more positive reinforcement on Kelly and hopper