Bluemour Discussion Thread VII (cont. in pt VIII)

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Carlton offered him some ridiculous money earlier this year. Doubt they have gone cold. Reckon they are looking for a bargain bin price.
I hate to burst most people's bubble but SOS does not rate Schache. Never has since his draft year. SOS believed that he was soft and rated Kane Keppel higher than Schache, and we didn't draft him so there is your answer.
 
Someone else said they heard he wasn't performing well in interviews... i wonder what questions that they would be asking, would be upsetting him and why?

Every faith, if and a big if at that, we traded him in, that Bolts could sort out any issues he might have. Much in the same way he forced Weitering to play through minor injury and soreness. The whole transition from boy footballer to league footballer sort of lessons. This interview stuff could seriously reduce his value come Thursday afternoon.
 

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I hate to burst most people's bubble but SOS does not rate Schache. Never has since his draft year. SOS believed that he was soft and rated Kane Keppel higher than Schache, and we didn't draft him so there is your answer.


Well it was pretty hard to draft him, after we drafted Weitering.. and our next pick was 10
 
Actually I think those stats mean picks 7&8 are materially more appealing than pick 3.

0 x 150 gamer: 21.2% (vs 20% for pick 3)
1+ x 150 gamer: 78.8% (vs 80%)
2 x 150 gamer: 28.2% (vs 0%)

7&8 have almost the same success rate for producing one good player or being a total bust, but with the bonus of returning TWO good players more than 1/4 of the time...

Overall 7&8 have an expected return of producing 1.07 x 150 gamers vs 0.80. A clear win for me.

One could argue that a successful pick 3 might produce a better player than a successful pick 7/8, but that's a whole other conversation.

Can we compare if we add say pick 25 in there too (our second round next year)

That's more likely to be the trade.
 
Agree with this.
If Brisbane "give" him away i"d be happy to look at him. Sounds like we're one of the few clubs who haven't ruled him out yet.

It would be interesting to see if Bolts could ‘reset’ him. We’d be a good fit for him in terms of where we’re at (he’d be put to the sword at C’wood, Tigers etc.) Just a little too risky to throw a first rounder at I reckon.


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Once again, I ask the question...

Would you prefer pick 3 (87% chance of a 150 game player) or picks 7 (60%) chance and 8 (47% chance)?

These are the realities over 15 years of drafting. 7 and 8 may be appealing on paper, and it may be way in our favour in points, but the reality says to me I think I'd rather keep pick 3.

That changes if we are going to use pick 7 or 8 to trade for a known quantity, someone who has already shown that barring injury, he's going to be a very good player for a long time. But if it's purely about going to the draft, I'm sticking with pick 3 thanks.

Actually I think those stats mean picks 7&8 are materially more appealing than pick 3.

0 x 150 gamer: 21.2% (vs 20% for pick 3)
1+ x 150 gamer: 78.8% (vs 80%)
2 x 150 gamer: 28.2% (vs 0%)

7&8 have almost the same success rate for producing one good player or being a total bust, but with the bonus of returning TWO good players more than 1/4 of the time...

Overall 7&8 have an expected return of producing 1.07 x 150 gamers vs 0.80. A clear win for me.

One could argue that a successful pick 3 might produce a better player than a successful pick 7/8, but that's a whole other conversation.
Exactly. And all of this is assuming that the use of historical analysis to predict this particular draft pool is useful, especially given such a limited set of data.

If 7 and 8 could be Coffield and Cerra, then hell yes.
If Cerra can make it to #7, the idea of Cerra and Bonar for #3 and change is incredible for our midfield prospects.

I'm not sure I see it happening, but if clubs have already strongly settled on such players (and presumably Collingwood's interest in Coffield holds), that's a trade that you make.

That being said, it's extremely likely that SOS didn't have Charlie Curnow in mind when he made that trade with the Dogs. He probably had bits and pieces of information (Schache to the Lions, Ah Chee to the Suns, top 10 bid for Hopper) and had a list of 12-15 names that he saw as a cut above the rest.

I don't think there's any strong word coming in on the top 10 right now other than Bonar having jumped into it, LDU not making it past #2, then Cerra, Rayner and Brayshaw probably being in the top #6.

If that's the case, I'm not sure SOS would do the deal unless the AFL ticked off a big points difference (or we chucked in a future 4th).
 

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I hate to burst most people's bubble but SOS does not rate Schache. Never has since his draft year. SOS believed that he was soft and rated Kane Keppel higher than Schache, and we didn't draft him so there is your answer.
I remember reading this several times at and around the draft period also. Probably the main reason it was clear for all to see Weiters was no.1, even though the media was still pumping up Schache as much as possible.

I wonder if this will have a similar effect to Rockliff last season, realising there is little to no interest in him at all might be the kick up the arse he needs.
 
I remember reading this several times at and around the draft period also. Probably the main reason it was clear for all to see Weiters was no.1, even though the media was still pumping up Schache as much as possible.

I wonder if this will have a similar effect to Rockliff last season, realising there is little to no interest in him at all might be the kick up the arse he needs.
One would hope so.
 
When clubs aren't jumping over each other to land a former Pick 2 Key Forward I have concerns
Yep, normally I would be worried as well, but nobody wanted Dusty a years ago, and Brisbane could not give away Rocky last year. Schache is worth the risk, maybe not at Carlton as I think we have a good forward line developing.
 
I think the whole Schache exercise is just to appease his discontentment. Lions have no cause to trade him for unders, and I don't see how they get market value.

If anyone can get him for a late first though it would be an astute pickup, and I'd hope we'd be front and centre.
 
I know SOS will keep his cool, but i reckon in reality the club is really disappointed in missing out on Rockliff & Smith etc...most reports had us going pretty hard at Rockliff.

All these rumours now about us pushing Gibbs out and desperately trying to get Scully...just seems like we are desperate for mature talent.
We may never know but i reckon the club is probably really disappointed in missing out on Rockliff.
 
I know SOS will keep his cool, but i reckon in reality the club is really disappointed in missing out on Rockliff & Smith etc...most reports had us going pretty hard at Rockliff.

All these rumours now about us pushing Gibbs out and desperately trying to get Scully...just seems like we are desperate for mature talent.
We may never know but i reckon the club is probably really disappointed in missing out on Rockliff.
I don't believe we are "desperately trying to get Scully". SOS is clearly aware that something more has to give
re GWS salary cap, and is offering options (that would advantage us)
Re Gibbs: will be bloody happy when this trade period is over (or a trade goes through) the saga is giving me
the sh1ts. (hard to believe no fire with so bloody much smoke)
 
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