Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[LanceRomance]

I have it from a pretty reliable source that although Wines went for Carlton and is good mates with Cameron O'shea he wouldn't consider Carlton at all anyways.

Thanks Ken Hinkley

 

[Soapy V]

My List changes at the end of the year.

Mullett - FA (Gaff)
O'Shea - FA (Wallis)
Wright? - Trade for player with Future Picks (Lang type)
Graham - Pick One (Lukosius)
Thomas - Pick 20 (Bytel)
Lobbe - Pick 30 (Mummery)
Simpson? - Pick 64 (BSOS F/S)
Lamb/Rowe - Pick 82 (SOS Gold ala Williamson)

G-Mac - Rookie (Hickmott)
Shaw - Rookie (Manton)
ASOS? - Rookie (Schloithe)

I really like our list and the above will improve it dramatically. (Names in brackets are examples of possible replacements). SOS won't shy away from the hard decisions. Hard to find 7 senior listed players to delete which is a positive. 1 or 2 may well survive depending on what SOS can do during trade period. Like last year they won't be signed until after.

 

[F_therest]

My List changes at the end of the year.

Mullett - FA
O'Shea - FA
Wright? - Trade for player with Future Picks
Graham - Pick One
Thomas - Pick 20
Lobbe - Pick 30
Simpson? - Pick 64 (BSOS F/S)
Lamb/Rowe - Pick 82

G-Mac - Rookie
Shaw - Rookie
ASOS? - Rookie

I really like our list and the above will improve it dramatically. SOS won't shy away from the hard decisions. Hard to find 7 senior listed players to delete which is a positive. 1 or 2 may well survive depending on what SOS can do during trade period. Like last year they won't be signed until after.

I think Daisy is almost a lock to be on our list next year.
He's actually been OK this year and hopefully with injured players back he won't have such a prominent role at half back in 2019...he can still contribute and play a role.

His personality/leadership and maturity would be viewed as important to our group, especially if Simmo, Rowe & ASOS move on...maybe even Murphy.

 

[thylacine60]

reckon I am deadset on the fence with daisy - if he stays I'm ok, if he goes I'm ok - don't dare judge my ambivalence............

 

[Soapy V]

I think Daisy is almost a lock to be on our list next year.
He's actually been OK this year and hopefully with injured players back he won't have such a prominent role at half back in 2019...he can still contribute and play a role.

His personality/leadership and maturity would be viewed as important to our group, especially if Simmo, Rowe & ASOS move on...maybe even Murphy.

He's been okay but this is about improving the list in a rebuild. If not for injuries he wouldn't be in the side. Getting the best out of himself but won't improve. SOS will make the big calls and it's hard to find any others out of contract that will go as well.

 

[BlueGum]

Post splitters

 

[Curnivore]

I'm not so sure that it would stop him going to Melbourne if the money is right and considering how they are faring at the moment.

Carlton passed up on Greg Williams twice when nobody knew who he was, didn't stop him joining the club later in his career and becoming a premiership player for the club.

Plus the fact Melbourne look pretty enticing to join based on form this year.

I'd love Wines but I think we would have to be well and truly the highest bidder in Vic (which I'm not at all against) to get him.

 

[Curnivore]

Plus the fact Melbourne look pretty enticing to join based on form this year.

I'd love Wines but I think we would have to be well and truly the highest bidder in Vic (which I'm not at all against) to get him.

Not plus the fact, as you stated the fact. Apologies

 

[Soapy V]

reckon I am deadset on the fence with daisy - if he stays I'm ok, if he goes I'm ok - don't dare judge my ambivalence............

IMO if we were a settled list making 4-5 changes then I reckon he'd be a chance. 32 next year, injury prone and out of contract and with a lot more changes to come I can't see it. Just the reality of a rebuild.

 

[The Bighouse]

IMO if we were a settled list making 4-5 changes then I reckon he'd be a chance. 32 next year, injury prone and out of contract and with a lot more changes to come I can't see it. Just the reality of a rebuild.

Seems to be over his injuries and would be a better fit up forward without the necessity to cover down back as is the case this year.

The coach seems to appreciate his work, a solid chance to remain but not fussed either way.

 

[Juddernaut08]

What about Jarrad Waite?

 

[The Bighouse]

My List changes at the end of the year.

Mullett - FA (Gaff)
O'Shea - FA (Wallis)
Wright? - Trade for player with Future Picks (Lang type)
Graham - Pick One (Lukosius)
Thomas - Pick 20 (Bytel)
Lobbe - Pick 30 (Mummery)
Simpson? - Pick 64 (BSOS F/S)
Lamb/Rowe - Pick 82 (SOS Gold ala Williamson)

G-Mac - Rookie (Hickmott)
Shaw - Rookie (Manton)
ASOS? - Rookie (Schloithe)

I really like our list and the above will improve it dramatically. (Names in brackets are examples of possible replacements). SOS won't shy away from the hard decisions. Hard to find 7 senior listed players to delete which is a positive. 1 or 2 may well survive depending on what SOS can do during trade period. Like last year they won't be signed until after.

Think you need to find another for the contracted Lobbe in 2019. Be a hefty contract to pay out & not our MO (Palmer a special circumstance).

Wright is an interesting one (could come down to numbers) & hoping O’Shea is only on a 1yr deal + Mullett as well as no published confirmed sign ons

15: Murphy, Simpson, Kerridge, Lamb, Rowe, Mullett, O’Shea, Graham, Kerr, Shaw, Thomas, JGM, LeBois, ASOS, Wright are the ones currently in the line to make way or pending another contract.

May have a surprise trade with Byrne or Jones candidates or a Cuningham, McKay, Macreadie type if a want away for more opportunity (or $ come a knocking).

We must have the numbers shoring up with the Polson signature, maybe only if there’s an excess of NGA & F/S’s may catch us out (unless we smash FA/OOC’s signings out of the park too but a good problem to have).

 

[Robco]

What about Jarrad Waite?

Based on our injury treatment this year he'd be 2 weeks away for the rest of his life

 

[Soapy V]

Seems to be over his injuries and would be a better fit up forward without the necessity to cover down back as is the case this year.

The coach seems to appreciate his work, a solid chance to remain but not fussed either way.

I just don't see it in a rebuild and with a mostly fit list. Plus another 8-10 new players what's the point? He's uncontracted and we have to delist someone

 

[Soapy V]

May have a surprise trade with Byrne or Jones candidates or a Cuningham, McKay, Macreadie type if a want away for more opportunity (or $ come a knocking)

Not a chance of that happening

 

[Gethelred]

Has this been posted somewhere? If so, I wouldn't mind posting it again.

It's a good read. http://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=29899

That's the sort of analysis I like to see done, and is VASTLY more valuable than the veritable glut of words spoken on various kinds of talkback and discussion shows.

Thanks for sharing.

 

[Coops93]

Sounds like to me that he might not be with us for much longer.

If Murphy were to leave I don't think he'd get to the type of club necessary to push for a flag. He's not the player who can push a team up into premiership contention anymore and I doubt the top clubs could guarantee him a spot in the starting midfield. If he leaves I don't think it will be as fruitful for him as he'd like. He's genuinely better off with us where he'll be respected as a club great.

 

[bmaurizio]

IMO if we were a settled list making 4-5 changes then I reckon he'd be a chance. 32 next year, injury prone and out of contract and with a lot more changes to come I can't see it. Just the reality of a rebuild.

Agree , we'll move Thomas on next year.

 

[Gethelred]

North are doing okay at the moment but they won't win a flag and don't have a lot of youngsters coming through. Being held up by some talented senior players of which some only have a year or two left. IMO caught in no mans land

People keep saying this, and it could very well be true, but it's a little foolish to be absolutely certain about it.

They're actually pretty good at finding value at the lower end of the draft and developing it into AFL grade talent; sure, mostly role players like Jacobs rather than diamonds in the rough like Brown, but it's something that we could actually learn from them. That, coupled with their ability to get in exactly what they need from their higher picks, and their propensity for getting in aging players and keeping them on the park and in pretty close to their best form, and you've got the recipe for a side that will perrenially contend and could pinch one inbetween the great eras, provided other sides all fall off the bus when you're coming good - say, Richmond lose Rance and Dusty first week of finals, and West Coast don't get Darling back. You really tipping Richmond over North in Melbourne, let alone West Coast over North at the G?

Declarations of North's decline are fifty-fifty propositions at best at the moment. It could happen at any time, really, but as long as they stay fit - something they've proven to be rather good at doing - and they keep hitting more than they miss inside the first round and with the older players they lure away from other clubs, they're where they are now.

 

[Gethelred]

I'm struggling to see the benefit of doing it that way.

The overall aim is to make the teams as 'equal' as possible so the teams that didn't contest the finals should be the ones who get the leg-up.

It has the added benefit of being so complex that the vast majority of pundits will complain about it rather than bashing Carlton around...

 

[bludrew79]

With the competitive advantage settings on the fixture... there is always a team who shoots up the ladder based on an easier draw.
Looking forward to the year its us!!!

 

[Gethelred]

With the competitive advantage settings on the fixture... there is always a team who shoots up the ladder based on an easier draw.
Looking forward to the year its us!!!

Except we came second last last year, and our draw to date has had us play 7 of the top 8 sides in the competition, most of them at their home ground, as well as the 9th team (Adelaide) at their home ground.

It's funny how the fixture's disposition changes from year to year, with sides at the bottom end who should by rights have an easier fixture end up playing a harder one than the sides like North, who courtesy of their home ground advantage in Tasmania and their vastly easier draw have overachieved.

 

[ferrisb]

No point trading for either Wallis or Guthrie as they're in the FA pool as well. Free hits not picks.

We will definitely be recruiting these two. It fits our Illuminati pattern of recruiting in order to collect consecutive picks in selected drafts (hear me out).

We recruited D Thomas (pick #2 in 2005, straight after M Murphy @ #1)
We recruited K Jaksch (pick #12 in 2012, straight after T Menzel @ #11)
We recruited L Henderson (pick #8 in 2007, straight after R Palmer @ #7)
We recruited M Kennedy (pick #13 in 2015, straight after C Curnow @ #12)

So.....WTF about Wallis and Guthrie?

Mitch Wallis was #22 in 2010 draft
Cam Guthrie was #23 in 2010 draft
.........
Both immediately after...... Jed Lamb, #21 in 2010 draft!!!
And for fun, the guy at #24 in 2010 was Cripps (ok, it was Jamie, but so close)

*OMG, SPOOKY*

For no reason, I might mention that D Gorringe was pick #10 in the 2010 draft.....followed 1 pick later by T Lynch @ #11

Also, some near misses:

We recruited L Sumner (pick #10 in 2011, after almost-Carlton player A Tomlinson @ #9)
We recruited J Bootsma (pick #22 in 2011, later targeted T Mitchell @ #21)
I am pretty sure SOS only bid on W Setterfield # pick 5, so we could later reunite him with pick #6 SPS

#NotSeriousAnalysis



But seriously, it's real.............





Lastly, I won't mention that we would have had back-to-back picks (Lucas/Talia) if not for the McLean trade. Phew, glad I didn't mention that.

#CanYouTellThingsAreQuietAtWork?

 

[Juddernaut08]

We will definitely be recruiting these two. It fits our Illuminati pattern of recruiting in order to collect consecutive picks in selected drafts (hear me out).

We recruited K Jaksch (pick #12 in 2012, straight after T Menzel @ #11)
#CanYouTellThingsAreQuietAtWork?

Good post. My reply is unrelated, but corr-blimey 2012 was a horrible draft (overall).

Besides Macrae, Wines and Daniher...not much else on offer!

 

[MightyMighties]

Definitely Billings.I like Gresham and Newnes.

Wasn't Gresham a good Carlton man and wanted to be drafted to the Blues?

Had a good first up year too but haven't heard much about him this year.