Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[pinot]

Its closer than you think ...

2018 stats so far:
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=4&type=A&pid1=3801&pid2=2754&fid1=S&fid2=S

Career so far:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=4&type=A&pid1=3801&pid2=2754&fid1=C&fid2=C

Not what you would exactly call DAYLIGHT between them .....

Its not daylight and Ed not going anywhere but Ollie is five years younger and his contested game is superior. Contested marking overhead, clearances, stoppages, contested ball winner everything really. They also play in different roles as Ed is used primarily is a grunt tagger Ollie isn't. Shows how good Ed is getting his own ball while tagging.

 

[Gethelred]

Its closer than you think ...

2018 stats so far:
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=4&type=A&pid1=3801&pid2=2754&fid1=S&fid2=S

Career so far:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=4&type=A&pid1=3801&pid2=2754&fid1=C&fid2=C

Not what you would exactly call DAYLIGHT between them .....

I use stats with the best of them, but there's some things you cannot quantify. Wines is a marquee player, and is pretty close the best player at Port; he is similar in style to Cripps, or Kennedy, but he's a marginally better kick and is far more adventurous than either by foot.

As much as I'm all for making these kinds of comparisons, Wines is a vastly superior player to Ed.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Its closer than you think ...

2018 stats so far:
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=4&type=A&pid1=3801&pid2=2754&fid1=S&fid2=S

Career so far:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=4&type=A&pid1=3801&pid2=2754&fid1=C&fid2=C

Not what you would exactly call DAYLIGHT between them .....

Ed is having a fantastic season.

 

[LordLucifer]

All this talk about Gaff, Shiel, Kelly & Wines is boring the absolute bejesus out of me.

Why ???

Because they aren't the players we need to be targeting right now.

Wines, whilst a handy player, is going to cost way too much from a trade perspective. All this talk of trading #1 ……………… FFS, give yourselves an uppercut on the way to the looney bin.

Gaff would cost a motza salary wise (ie. in excess of $1mill) because he isn't going to move from the top team to the bottom team for pittance. Do you really want a player coming to the club purely for financial reasons ?? No way, we want players who want to be a part of what we are building up to, not mercenaries who would leave for a better offer if it presented itself.

How does a bottom team get out of the bottom four by trading out #1 in a really solid draft ?? If this Lukosious chap is as good as they say (well there is this new rumour that Port are after him & only him) then why should we deliver him on a platter to them ??

We need him just as badly as they say they do, possibly more, our forward line needs more goal-kicking power coupled with an ability to provide ferocious forward pressure. The mids aren't the most pressing issue for us, they can get the ball up there enough, it's just that it comes back out a little quicker than we would want.

By the way, since when has Steve Silvagni traded out first round picks ?? He never does because his complete modus operandi is to get as many first round picks as he can and then work them into as high a position as is possible as well. He is not going to jettison the best pick available in a really good draft, it goes completely against everything he has done before and will continue to do in the future.

The midfield does need a tweak, everybody can see that but it's not A-Grade elite players we need to chase right now, we already have plenty of serious young talent who will reach that level if we afford them the time to develop physically & mentally.

SPS, Fisher, Lang, Dow & O'Brien supporting Cripps is a really solid core to work with, let's not try and reinvent the wheel right now.

The focus should be on a slightly older/mature age B-Grader to help in the clinches. We made a smart decision getting Kennedy last year even though injury has interrupted his season thus far, another one or two like him will cost way less financially plus in trades.

It is for all those reasons that I see Cats player Cam Guthrie as the most ideal candidate potentially on the market this year. He is being played off half-back a bit this year due to Geelong having other midfield options ahead of them, GAJ coming back to the club being part of that.

He may be a Free Agent as well which means he won't cost any picks, he wouldn't be on crazy money down there so we could offer him a moderate pay-rise on that as a thank-you for coming over plus we can offer him the opportunity to get mentored by Chris Judd, a player he has always idolised.

I'm sure there will be another player or two in a similar vein to Guthrie being wooed right now as well, Silvagni never ever puts all his eggs in the one basket so as to minimise the risk if one falls over. We need to keep improving the list with strategic tweaks each year, it is near impossible to revamp everything in the one off-season, the trade, draft & salary cap limit how much you can do.

Another issue to contend with is Marc Murphy and the mooted late career move. Whilst I'm not convinced it will happen, it is not totally out of the question either. However, if we did pick up Guthrie as a FA, it would cancel out any potential recompense for Murphy. If we didn't get Guthrie, then given that North received a second round pick as compensation for Daniel Wells, then I see that as a fair yardstick for what we may get for Murphy if he moved on.

Taking Lukosious at #1 & either grabbing Cam Guthrie as a FA or getting #20 for Murphy would be a really solid start to the trade & draft period IMO.

Our other picks in the draft will be used shrewdly too.

 

[Metalcrusher]

I use stats with the best of them, but there's some things you cannot quantify. Wines is a marquee player, and is pretty close the best player at Port; he is similar in style to Cripps, or Kennedy, but he's a marginally better kick and is far more adventurous than either by foot.

As much as I'm all for making these kinds of comparisons, Wines is a vastly superior player to Ed.

See you are using subjective analysis, which is heavily opinion based, whereas I'm using hard data ...... I win!

 

[LordLucifer]

If you think we would trade #1 and pass up the chance on this chap, you are struggling with reality :

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...mare-jack-lukosius-best-draft-prospect-decade

Lukosius' running is his first point of difference. He leads from the forward 50m all the way down the wings and half-back flanks. When followed up the field, he beats his opponent back into the forward 50m to provide a target and take an uncontested mark. This forces opponents to hang back and let Lukosius take easy uncontested marks, or force someone else to pick him up as he passes the centre square. With Lukosius, he not only possesses elite endurance, but also has the speed on the lead to create separation.

His kicking, vision and decision making is also elite. Lukosius regularly spots out targets others won't and places his kicks out in front of teammates to run onto. What makes Lukosius' marks up the field so valuable is he typically moves the ball on quickly. When he holds onto it for more than a few seconds, he will often spot out a meaningful target up the field other players just wouldn't notice.

 

[Gw2_James]

If we could keep Murphy and get Guthrie, I'd be over the moon!

We should be targeting free agents such as him, instead of trading our valuable draft picks for mature players.

 

[Gethelred]

If you think we would trade #1 and pass up the chance on this chap, you are struggling with reality :

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...mare-jack-lukosius-best-draft-prospect-decade

Sounds like a combination between Nick Riewoldt and Sammo.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

If we could keep Murphy and get Guthrie, I'd be over the moon!

We should be targeting free agents such as him, instead of trading our valuable draft picks for mature players.

Happy to lose murphy if we were to receive a pick in the early 20's as compo. Then id try and trade either the Adelaide pick or the wb pick to geelong for guthrie. I understand he is a free agent but feel guthries compo for geelong won't be at the start of the 2nd round so it maybe beneficial for both parties to trade

 

[LordLucifer]

Sounds like a combination between Nick Riewoldt and Sammo.

The Riewoldt comparison is apt, it's just that Lukosious is a better kick for goal apparently.

This is why my head is spinning right now, if you knew you were able to draft Nick Riewoldt back then with what you know now, would you trade that draft pick ??

 

[The Bighouse]

All this talk about Gaff, Shiel, Kelly & Wines is boring the absolute bejesus out of me.

Why ???

Because they aren't the players we need to be targeting right now.

Wines, whilst a handy player, is going to cost way too much from a trade perspective. All this talk of trading #1 ……………… FFS, give yourselves an uppercut on the way to the looney bin.

Gaff would cost a motza salary wise (ie. in excess of $1mill) because he isn't going to move from the top team to the bottom team for pittance. Do you really want a player coming to the club purely for financial reasons ?? No way, we want players who want to be a part of what we are building up to, not mercenaries who would leave for a better offer if it presented itself.

How does a bottom team get out of the bottom four by trading out #1 in a really solid draft ?? If this Lukosious chap is as good as they say (well there is this new rumour that Port are after him & only him) then why should we deliver him on a platter to them ??

We need him just as badly they say they do, our forward line needs more goal-kicking power coupled with an ability to provide ferocious forward pressure. The mids aren't the most pressing issue for us, they can get the ball up there enough, it's just that it comes back out a little quicker than we would want.

By the way, since when has Steve Silvagni traded out first round picks ?? He never does because his complete modus operandi is to get as many first round picks as he can and then work them into as high a position as is possible as well,. He is not going to jettison the best pick available in a really good draft, it goes completely against everything he has done before and will continue to do in the future.

The midfield does need a tweak, everybody can see that but it's not A-Grade elite players we need to chase right now, we already plenty of serious young talent who will reach that level if we afford them the time to develop physically & mentally.

SPS, Fisher, Lang, Dow & O'Brien supporting Cripps is a really solid core to work with, let's not try and reinvent the wheel right now.

The focus should be on a slightly older/mature age B-Grader to help in the clinches. We made a smart decision getting Kennedy last year even though injury has interrupted his season thus far, another one or two like him will cost way less financially plus trades.

It is for all those reasons that I see Cats player Cam Guthrie as the most ideal candidate potentially on the market this year. He is being played off half-back a bit this year due to Geelong having other midfield options ahead of them, GAJ coming back to the club being part of that.

He may be a Free Agent as well which means he won't cost any picks, he wouldn't be on crazy money down there so we could offer him a moderate pay-rise on that as a thank-you for coming over plus we can offer him the opportunity to get mentored by Chris Judd, a player he has always idolised.

I'm sure there will be another player or two in a similar vein to Guthrie being wooed right now as well, Silvagni never ever puts all his eggs in the one basket to minimise the risk if one falls over. We need to keep improving the list with strategic tweaks each year, it is near impossible to revamp everything in the one off-season, the trade, draft & salary cap limit how much you can do.

Another issue to contend with is Marc Murphy and the mooted late career move. Whilst I'm not convinced it will happen, it is not totally out of the question either. However, if we did pick up Guthrie as a FA, it would cancel out any potential recompense for Murphy. If we didn't get Guthrie, then given that North received a second round pick as compensation for Daniel Wells, then I see that as a fair yardstick for what we may get for Murphy if he moved on.

Taking Lukosious at #1 & either grabbing Cam Guthrie as a FA or getting #20 for Murphy would be a really solid start to the trade & draft period IMO.

Our other picks in the draft will be used shrewdly too.

At least you’ve used your time wisely whilst in the boredom zone to publish your mini extract on the matter

 

[rog1995]

Wines is not a matchwinner.

 

[CJMB]

By the way, since when has Steve Silvagni traded out first round picks ?? He never does because his complete modus operandi is to get as many first round picks as he can and then work them into as high a position as is possible as well,. He is not going to jettison the best pick available in a really good draft, it goes completely against everything he has done before and will continue to do in the future.

Agree with most of what you said but I will point out this:

2017: we traded 16 & 40 to the dogs for 28, 30 & their 2018 2nd.
2016: we traded Geelong's 2017 1st , 45 & 58 for Marchbank, Pickett & GWS' 2017 2nd.
2015: we traded Geelong's 2016 1st, 28, 77 & 95 for 8, Plowman, Lamb, Phillips & Sumner.

SOS actually has a bit of a track record for trading out 1st rounds picks, albeit later in the round and not 1/2(/3?) like we'll have this year.

 

[skadoosh]

Who have been the top draftees over the last 5 years? Can we easily identify who will be playing at a high level by finding any correlation over the years?

 

[LordLucifer]

Agree with most of what you said but I will point out this:

2017: we traded 16 & 40 to the dogs for 28, 30 & their 2018 2nd.
2016: we traded Geelong's 2017 1st , 45 & 58 for Marchbank, Pickett & GWS' 2017 2nd.
2015: we traded Geelong's 2016 1st, 28, 77 & 95 for 8, Plowman, Lamb, Phillips & Sumner.

SOS actually has a bit of a track record for trading out 1st rounds picks, albeit later in the round and not 1/2(/3?) like we'll have this year.

You are right in that regard, I know he has done some manoeuvring but it's not really high end stuff that he offloads. I do think that those trades were more through necessity as he was virtually working with a blank canvas.

Top 10 picks ?? No way, they are like gold to a club rebuilding.

 

[Gethelred]

Wines is not a matchwinner.

Is Josh Kennedy (Sydney)?

Similar style of player.

We get it by now; you don't rate Wines, or you don't want to trade pick 1 plus change for Wines. That's fine.

 

[footyfan1978]

If we could keep Murphy and get Guthrie, I'd be over the moon!

We should be targeting free agents such as him, instead of trading our valuable draft picks for mature players.

Agreed but would not be paying anything over $400K for Guthrie. He probably after more. Some one else can have him if he chasing $500K. We want A graders in his age bracket, not glorified foot soldiers.

 

[LordLucifer]

Agreed but would not be paying anything over $400K for Guthrie. He probably after more. Some one else can have him if he chasing $500K. We want A graders in his age bracket, not glorified foot soldiers.

I reckon he is already on around $400K down at the Cattery so we'd need to put $550K on the table to make it worth his while to move.

 

[footyfan1978]

I reckon he is already on around $400K down at the Cattery so we'd need to put $550K on the table to make it worth his while to move.

Pass.....not worth getting for that much

 

[LordLucifer]

Pass.....not worth getting for that much

Have to disagree with you about that but that's fine, everyone has a different view of things.

 

[bludrew79]

Agree with most of what you said but I will point out this:

2017: we traded 16 & 40 to the dogs for 28, 30 & their 2018 2nd.
2016: we traded Geelong's 2017 1st , 45 & 58 for Marchbank, Pickett & GWS' 2017 2nd.
2015: we traded Geelong's 2016 1st, 28, 77 & 95 for 8, Plowman, Lamb, Phillips & Sumner.

SOS actually has a bit of a track record for trading out 1st rounds picks, albeit later in the round and not 1/2(/3?) like we'll have this year.

All those first round picks where never Carltons to begin with ... all acquired.
He is happy to play with the banks money.. but will always keep his own in his wallet

 

[LordLucifer]

All those first round picks where never Carltons to begin with ... all acquired.
He is happy to play with the banks money.. but will always keep his own in his wallet

Nice analogy & totally agree.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Pass.....not worth getting for that much

Definitely disagree. He would easily be best 22. Knows where the goals are, has speed and would be a great mentor for our kids. If the name Ablett wasn't back at geelong, he wouldn't be getting low balled

 

[Stamos]

SOS actually has a bit of a track record for trading out 1st rounds picks, albeit later in the round and not 1/2(/3?) like we'll have this year.

Hasn't traded our first round pick yet though, have either been someone else's future first, or another traded in first rounder (which would have been our third pick).

 

[AceAndy]

I reckon he is already on around $400K down at the Cattery so we'd need to put $550K on the table to make it worth his while to move.

Pass.....not worth getting for that much

Definitely disagree. He would easily be best 22. Knows where the goals are, has speed and would be a great mentor for our kids. If the name Ablett wasn't back at geelong, he wouldn't be getting low balled

I do find it difficult to assess what the true market rate is for a player is. Assuming he is on 400 K would we need to pay an additional 150 K to get him to Carlton ? My guess would be pay him 450 K and the opportunity to play consistently at AFL level is what would be required to get him.

Perhaps the reality of the AFL player market is that you would need to up his contract by 150 K to get him to move. In that case if we are paying market rate for him so be it.