Remove this Banner Ad

Bluemour Discussion Thread IX

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Status
Not open for further replies.
I think you have to look more in-depth at recent drafts to understand why that is. Firstly talls have been taken most of time at pick 1, which take longer to develop. Secondly it’s a lot easier to be all Australian as a medium size player than it is a tall. Fewer spots available for talls, especially after you take buddy into account. The last point is the interesting one and that is the game has changed and talls have to be very mobile as team defences are strangling young key forwards who aren’t agile and mobile enough. If new rules come into play this may all change.

My opinion about the hit and miss of the draft is that every year clubs and recruiters get smarter. Over the last 10-15 years clubs have been refining there talent spotting and identification. Each year they have another draft to look back at and see which players succeeded and failed and what they got right and wrong. It’s like another test they get to learn from. I’m more optimistic than many about clubs drafting abilities today.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

I agree there has been improvement in drafting but I’m not sure it’s as readily seen with pick 1 as that had generally been more obvious. Go back a decade to Gibbs and Murphy drafts - while they may not be the “best” in those drafts, they are easily in the top 3-4. It’s hard to argue we stuffed them up. There’s been an enormous improvement in in the mid to late first round drafting though, I agree.

It’s a good point re the nature of the players taken at 1 but even if we just look at midfielders in the last 10-12 years, it’s Murphy, Gibbs, Whitfield, Scully, swallow. Not exactly a murderers row when compared to others available in those drafts. Gibbs arguably the only one who has reached genuinely elite status over his career.

I actually think the biggest argument against relying on drafting history is that GWS and GWS skewed things a bit with the academy players and their willingness to draft for need. It doesn’t necessarily give an accurate picture of the draft.
 
It is not just Cripps.
It is a chop out for our young midfielders (Dow, SPS, Fisher, Kennedy) which lets them develop as Cripps, Shiel, Ed and Murphy (and Lang) are pitted against the best midfielders in other sides, leaving our younger ones against midfielders 5-8.
And Shiel has the pace to break the lines and deliver well into F50 which is something we don’t do very well.

If we miss on Gaff, Sloane, Wallis, Dahlhaus, GHS et al, which senior body would you rather bring in?

22 games earlier than if we take him as FA next year for free.

Thats not worth Pick 1. Its still not worth it if we also get pick 9.

Next year we wont be anywhere near the top 8, even with Shiel. The plan is (and always has been) 2020 onwards.
 
22 games earlier than if we take him as FA next year for free.

Thats not worth Pick 1. Its still not worth it if we also get pick 9.

Next year we wont be anywhere near the top 8, even with Shiel. The plan is (and always has been) 2020 onwards.
So your calling bluff on the clubs stated desire to recruit mature readymade players this off season ?
 

Log in to remove this Banner Ad

Pretty sure he means the plan is to be playing finals 2020 onward.
Yes aware of that but still contradicts the clubs intentions for this off season .
Doesnt matter if its not Shiel the club has made their intentions known if they can persuade any quality player to join we will most likely be giving up a premium pick or two .
 
Is having Shiel 22 games earlier really going to help Cripps that much?

I mean come on. Lets not be shortsighted and go the messiah complex.

Trading pick 1 for 22 games from Dylan Shiel is ******* ludicrous, even if we get pick 9 back.

Having Shiel next year helps the whole midfield unit develop and by extension , the team.
Pick 1 for Shiel and Ian Hill every day of the week for me.

Simpson Weitering Jones
Docherty Marchbank Williamson
SPS Cripps O'Brien
Murphy Curnow Hill
Pickett McKay Silvagni

Kruezer Shiel Dow

Kennedy Fisher Curnow Cuningham

Backline depth
Plowman Macreadie Byrne Schu

Forward line depth
Kerr DeKonning Silvagni

Utility depth
Polson Garlett Lang

Add 2 best available mids at the draft this year with our 2nd rounders.

The interchange bench is of AFL quality midfield rotation for the first time in i don't know how long and not one single deckchair to be seen ...
 
It is not just Cripps.
It is a chop out for our young midfielders (Dow, SPS, Fisher, Kennedy) which lets them develop as Cripps, Shiel, Ed and Murphy (and Lang) are pitted against the best midfielders in other sides, leaving our younger ones against midfielders 5-8.
And Shiel has the pace to break the lines and deliver well into F50 which is something we don’t do very well.

If we miss on Gaff, Sloane, Wallis, Dahlhaus, GHS et al, which senior body would you rather bring in?

FWIW, I don't think any of those five will be Carlton players next season.
 
I wouldn't have Shiel in the top 25 midfielders

Genuinely interested to see who you have ahead of him?

I’d have Danger, Dusty, Selwood, JPK, Kelly, Cripps, Fyfe, Oliver, Bont as clearly “better”.

Throw a rug over a bunch of blokes after that including Sheil. He’s easily as good as lines of Treloar etc in that second tier imo.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Having Shiel next year helps the whole midfield unit develop and by extension , the team.
Pick 1 for Shiel and Ian Hill every day of the week for me.

Simpson Weitering Jones
Docherty Marchbank Williamson
SPS Cripps O'Brien
Murphy Curnow Hill
Pickett McKay Silvagni

Kruezer Shiel Dow

Kennedy Fisher Curnow Cuningham

Backline depth
Plowman Macreadie Byrne Schu

Forward line depth
Kerr DeKonning Silvagni

Utility depth
Polson Garlett Lang

Add 2 best available mids at the draft this year with our 2nd rounders.

The interchange bench is of AFL quality midfield rotation for the first time in i don't know how long and not one single deckchair to be seen ...

My ideal scenario is to trade down with GC.

Pick 1 for pick 3 and 16.

Target Bailey Smith at 3.
Take a medium forward/tall forward with 16 (Taylor likely won't make it here, perhaps Bailey Williams).
Trade 24 or 27 for a tall midfielder (Brodie/Scrimshaw).
Acquire Shiel with the 2019 1st as the centrepiece.

None of this will happen, but we'd come out of this year in a strong position.
 
Yes aware of that but still contradicts the clubs intentions for this off season .
Doesnt matter if its not Shiel the club has made their intentions known if they can persuade any quality player to join we will most likely be giving up a premium pick or two .

When did the club say they're going to give up premium picks for quality players? Have you got a link?
 
When did the club say they're going to give up premium picks for quality players? Have you got a link?
Well thats my assumption as i doubt a quality FA will come our way going by SOS recent comments about free agency .
But one could assume if they have stated they want mature players you would think they will be prepared to do so otherwise why make the statement ? .
 
A 12 pick downgrade to obtain a top 10-12 midfielder in the league would be the very embodiment of daylight robbery.

Would value Shiel as #6, which is a lot more than they'll get as FA compensation.

I’ve said it before there is zero chance GWS would let him go a year early when they are a chance to win a premiership. It would mean they are giving up, would be shocking list managment, ruin their culture and set precedent to other players. No chance

Not necessarily. There are many reasons that the Giants might want to do the deal.
They free up salary cap, and don't pay a guy who is walking in a year. They can then put that salary into keeping other players.
Or if they accept that they will lose several players, they can stagger them leaving.
They might think they need to rejig the list to have another crack at the flag, eg Richmond trading out their best player in Deledio. I personally think this applies. 2017 was their year, but injuries destroyed them, and they haven't been able to replace the influence of Mumford.
They might desperately want Lukosius.
 

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Well thats my assumption as i doubt a quality FA will come our way going by SOS recent comments about free agency .
But one could assume if they have stated they want mature players you would think they will be prepared to do so otherwise why make the statement ? .

Where did they say they were willing to trade our first pick? We can go for mature players without giving up pick #1...
 
22 games earlier than if we take him as FA next year for free.

Thats not worth Pick 1. Its still not worth it if we also get pick 9.

Next year we wont be anywhere near the top 8, even with Shiel. The plan is (and always has been) 2020 onwards.

The alternate view would be a season of development wasted (or at least, not optimised).

Individual players, and the collective unit, develop better when the team is better.
Cripps gets a chop-out, and can spend some time forward. Dow, Fisher, Samo, Kennedy, LOB get help in their development playing with another gun, confidence grows, etc. The backline is under less pressure, the ball comes in a bit less, and a bit slower, and they have better options coming out of defence. The forwardline gets more, and better, opportunities.

Understand that I would 100% take Gaff for free rather than needing to trade for Shiel this off-season, but I think we have to accept that Gaff isn't coming to Carlton. And we need help beyond what another class of draftees would bring.
 
Correct.
So who do we bring in of value to our midfield in the 24+ age group?

This is a good point. None of the obvious FAs in my mind. SoS has to get creative and dig deep to find:
  • Decent mature players (not top tier tho) not getting game-time or position-time they want
  • Mature or next step players with a connection to Carlton
  • Next step players wanting to come home from interstate and already know a few of the Carlton boys from their draft year.
So im sure he is working on stuff but we know little about it.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Remove this Banner Ad

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Back
Top