List Mgmt. 2018 St Kilda Trade Thread Part 3

[Keg on legs]

Whats this about Us trading our first pick. what do we get in return?

Screwed

 

[stavro#4]

So did Hanners but he clearly wasn't fit enough to play his best.

Two very different circumstances.
One was a bloke who couldn’t get on the park with any regularity = managed to debut and played the majority of 2018 rather then sit on the side lines.

One is a bloke who hasn’t done a pre season in 2 years and got better as the season went on = ????!

 

[SAIINT]

I'm yet to see anyone have Bailey Smith ranked outside the top 7. Some even have him rated at 2. If we were to trade down, I think it would end up looking close to this.

Carl - Walsh
GC - Lukosius
GC - Rozee (PP)
Adel - Rankine
Syd - Blakey (academy)
Freo - King
Freo - King
WB - Smith
St K - Hately

Exactly, twomeys end of year top 10 is usually reasonably accurate

 

[triggering bro]

I'm yet to see anyone have Bailey Smith ranked outside the top 7. Some even have him rated at 2. If we were to trade down, I think it would end up looking close to this.

Carl - Walsh
GC - Lukosius
GC - Rozee (PP)
Adel - Rankine
Syd - Blakey (academy)
Freo - King
Freo - King
WB - Smith
St K - Hately

If we are trading down & happy to take a mid surely we pick local boy Jye Caldwell. Blokes a beast just been cut down with hammy injuries this year.

 

[MightySaint]

Trading out of the top 5 for multiple lower picks in almost any year is just plain dumb. Trading out is most likely to net us more B graders, we have PLENTY of them. We need stars, yes occasionally a Cripps is picked up at a lower pick but we are definitely more likely to get a real star from the top 5 kids (granted our strike rate recently hasn’t been great!). Would Richmond or dogs have won the flag if they traded out dusty or bont? Doubt it.

Dumb dumb dumb.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...-thread-part-3.1204307/page-162#post-58072064
Draft history doesn't seem to suit your argument

 

[plugger66]

2007-2017 picks 4 vs. 9 and 14:
1. 2007: Morton vs. McEvoy and Grimes (win later picks)
2. 2008: Hartlett vs. Ziebell and Cordy (win later picks)
3. 2009: Morabito vs. Moore and Lewis Jetta (win later picks)
4. 2010: Gaff vs. Prestia and Brodie Smith (wash)
5. 2011: Hoskin-Elliott vs. Tomlinson and Dev Smith (win later picks)
6. 2012: Toumpas vs. Vlaustin and Corr (win later picks)
7. 2013: Bont vs. Salem and McCarthy (win early pick)
8. 2014: Pickett vs. Moore and Level (win later picks)
9. 2015: Oliver vs. Wiedeman and Hipwood (win early pick)
10. 2016: Ainsworth vs. Brodie and Perryman (win early pick I guess)
11. 2017: LDU vs. Naughton and Ling (wash)

Later picks - 6
Wash - 2
Early Picks - 3

Seems downgrading yields better returns historically.

How many real stars with the later picks compared to early. I get 3 to early none to late

 

[MightySaint]

If we're going to the draft...

Do Not trade down.

If we're on trading for players trade down.

Simples

What's your rationale? Seems its best to give yourself as many shots at the draft early as possible.

The major sport where trading down is severely disadvantageous is the NBA.

 

[SAIINT]

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...-thread-part-3.1204307/page-162#post-58072064
Draft history doesn't seem to suit your argument

On the contrary it does, I want A grade AA players, Gaff, Oliver, bont all top 5....catch my drift.

 

[MightySaint]

How many real stars with the later picks compared to early. I get 3 to early none to late

That's fair. Though based on the above its a 27% chance to land a star (Bont, Oliver, Gaff). Better than zero, but the odds on landing a complete dud/non-contributor are 36% (Pickett, Toumpas, Morabito, Morton).

 

[bergholt]

Two very different circumstances.
One was a bloke who couldn’t get on the park with any regularity = managed to debut and played the majority of 2018 rather then sit on the side lines.

One is a bloke who hasn’t done a pre season in 2 years and got better as the season went on = ????!

Fair enough, I don't know the specifics of Hanners, all I can see from the stats is that he had fewer disposals, goals etc than any year in his entire career since the first. Hopefully that's because of fitness. Hopefully it can be fixed. Hopefully our fitness guys are the ones to fix it. That's a few things we're hoping for though, surely you can understand why people might be sceptical.

 

[MightySaint]

On the contrary it does, I want A grade AA players, Gaff, Oliver, bont all top 5....catch my drift.

I hear ya: does a 3 in 11 shot to land a star justify missing on a better group the majority of the time though? I guess all this depends on what takes your fancy in the process.

 

[plugger66]

That's fair. Though based on the above its a 27% chance to land a star (Bont, Oliver, Gaff). Better than zero, but the odds on landing a complete dud/non-contributor are 36% (Pickett, Toumpas, Morabito, Morton).

As a bottom side we need to take the punt. Getting good players doesn’t ever get you a flag especially when you have no stars anyway

 

[Saint Shags]

In before someone has an early crack. Libba was a rumour that I heard the other night.

Confident that we have atleast spoken to him. 2 knees and party life styles are big ******* question marks.

But if you could get him on the straight and narrow and back to 2/3 of the player he was. Then you have improved your midfield for minimal cost.


Bingo. Medical team think they can get him right. That’s all I need to hear.

Also If Carlton land a pp today. Then that will be used for McGovern I dare say. Opens up Adelaide as a really serious trade partner for 3 potentially.

If Carlton land one we better ******* get one too!

 

[kernelT]

Where can i see the hitouts to advantage stats?

http://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#

 

[SAIINT]

I hear ya: does a 3 in 11 shot to land a star justify missing on a better group the majority of the time though? I guess all this depends on what takes your fancy in the process.

I agree, there is the potential that we could go bust with Morton, but I’d rather take the risk. Not too many teams are winning flags without a superstar. Think of the recent flag winning teams and the stars they had from top 5 picks.

 

[SaintersUnite]

No way!

Long and Lonie need games to build confidence and believe. They also happen to have natural talent. Combine confidence and talent and you add some we are missing

I know they both need game time that’s why I had both of them in the team ahead of Sincs. I’m just saying IF I had to drop one, I would drop Long.

 

[Diehard Saint]

I'll be pissed if Carlton get priorities over us with all their top draft picks.

Especially considering the AFL apparently believe that Carlton has a better list than us.

 

[bird_man]

That's fair. Though based on the above its a 27% chance to land a star (Bont, Oliver, Gaff). Better than zero, but the odds on landing a complete dud/non-contributor are 36% (Pickett, Toumpas, Morabito, Morton).

You've also got to take into account the fact that every draft is different to the next.

This year they rate to top 7 as good as any before evening out.

Others there is an even top 12-15 or so, some run deeper than others. No drafts are the same but IMO in this case we'd be mad to trade down.

 

[bergholt]

2007-2017 picks 4 vs. 9 and 14:
1. 2007: Morton vs. McEvoy and Grimes (win later picks)
2. 2008: Hartlett vs. Ziebell and Cordy (win later picks)
3. 2009: Morabito vs. Moore and Lewis Jetta (win later picks)
4. 2010: Gaff vs. Prestia and Brodie Smith (wash)
5. 2011: Hoskin-Elliott vs. Tomlinson and Dev Smith (win later picks)
6. 2012: Toumpas vs. Vlaustin and Corr (win later picks)
7. 2013: Bont vs. Salem and McCarthy (win early pick)
8. 2014: Pickett vs. Moore and Level (win later picks)
9. 2015: Oliver vs. Wiedeman and Hipwood (win early pick)
10. 2016: Ainsworth vs. Brodie and Perryman (win early pick I guess)
11. 2017: LDU vs. Naughton and Ling (wash)

Later picks - 6
Wash - 2
Early Picks - 3

Seems downgrading yields better returns historically.

Using specific picks isn't that useful because there's too much variation, better to use ranges. Full stats are here:

https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison

A lot to read there but basically I'm comparing picks 3-5 to picks 11-20. Historically it's taken about 3 picks in the 3-5 range to get an AA; about 6 picks in the 11-20 range. That suggests to me that taking two later picks is about the same as taking one earlier pick.

 

[Animal Cager]

Hearing rumours about Libba.

If true, I'm excited, he's a gun. No Libba, no Premiership for the Dogs in 2016. He hasn't yet signed for the Dogs.

 

[bennymc7]

What's your rationale? Seems its best to give yourself as many shots at the draft early as possible.

The major sport where trading down is severely disadvantageous is the NBA.

Rationale is the crack at a top 5 kid in the country...

We have depth, need stars.

 

[bergholt]

If true, I'm excited, he's a gun. No Libba, no Premiership for the Dogs in 2016. He hasn't yet signed for the Dogs.

Doesn't his brother run our recruitment now? I hope he's recusing himself from those discussions.

 

[burningdwarf]

I'd rather keep Dunstan than get Libba.

Stats were trending downwards and were pretty poor even before he did a 2nd ACL.

 

[Animal Cager]

Doesn't his brother run our recruitment now? I hope he's recusing himself from those discussions.

Yes, half brother.

The Bulldogs have stumbled and stalled since they won the flag. Concidentally Libba has hardly played in that time and that's a big reason.

 

[Rors]

No wonder we moved back to Moorabbin....

Carlisle, Hanners & Libba to bring back the SAINTS DISCO!!!!!!

* YEAH!!!