Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Pessimistic]

List Management is a bit like economics - don't stray too far from the fundamental principles, and if you do, not for too long; but also don't become rigid and dogmatic and ignore the empirical evidence before you.

The best list didn't win the last three premierships.
Richmond's list was widely thought to require a complete re-build from scratch the year before it won the premiership.
Same with the Bulldogs.

People ought to stop pretending that list management is a formula that spits out a certain outcome.

Economics particular Keynesian is about knowing which levers to pull for the times you are in. The rub is public opinion lags even if you get it right.
And if you get it right, catastrophe is avoided, pulblic gives you very little credit, and merely raises the bar for you to jump over

 

[Leeda]

I think the 2008 squad was bolstered with Burgoyne Gibson Hale Cheney via trades and smith puopolo Langford Schoenmakers Shiels stratton Bruest via the various drafts in 2009-11 all these players were recruited for longer term, the oldest being Burgoyne and Hale.

Even with the riches from the 2001 and 2004 drafts this wasn’t quite enough, the loss of Franklin and Ellis (both early picks) at the end of 2012 might have dashed the chances but adding Lake Spangher McEvoy Frawley O’Rourke and Gunston via trades, Hill O’Brien Brand Sicily Hartung ceglar How Miles via drafts in 2012-2014

You’d think in 2015 although they were reigning supreme theyd certainly be looking to the future, so while it might be early to judge the 2015-2018 recruits, we have T Mitchell O’Meara Impey Wingard Scully Scrimshaw as trades, and of the draftees, Hardwick, Worpel, Morrison, Cousins look like they will make it, Glass, Nash, jiath, Mitch Lewis, Hanrahan, Moore might. Burton, Lovell have already been moved on. far too early to speculate on Koschitzke Walker Greaves Golds Mohr (older rookie probably depth)

In terms of numbers the three x three year periods are similar. Quality? We will see. looking back on this list, the 2012-14 draftees might make that group a little light on compared to those before and after. hawthorn were hamstrung a little by having the later draft picks in that period., also using many of those picks for trades to really top up for that flag push

Reality bites..

 

[Freomaniac]

Ah 2011 when GWS had 11 of the first 15 picks, a good year to make fun of a team for their draft strategy. Also we got 3 flags out of Hill before he went home, he'd still be on the list if he hadn't wanted to go back to Perth.

2011 - First pick (24) traded as part of deal for Jack Gunston also elevated Breust off the rookie list
2012 - First pick (21) traded as part of deal for Brian Lake, Second (27) for Jed Anderson
2013 - First pick (17) traded as part of deal for Ben McEvoy, we might have missed on Hartung and Gartlett but our next pick was Sicily
2014 - First pick (19) traded as part of deal for O'Rourke
2015 - Our next pick was Hardwick, the kid who came second in our B&F this year
2016 - First pick (14) traded for Mitchell, 2017 First pick (7) and second Picks (23 and 36) for O'Meara
2017 - Second Round Pick (33) for Impey
2018 - First Pick (15) and Second Pick (35) part of deal for Wingard, also got Scully and Scrimshaw for a 3rd round pick
Anderson was a bust for us but helped get Burton who helped get Wingard
O'Rourke was a real miss as were Hartung, Kelly, Gartlett and possibly Lovell.

But at the same time we brought in
Gunston, Breust, Lake, and McEvoy who were all important parts of the 3 peat as was Hill.
Now we've brought in genuine 1st round talent in Mitchell, Wingard, Scully (ankle the worry) and O'Meara plus another former top 10 pick in Scrimshaw who at the price was worth the risk.

Impey, Hardwick and Sicily have all been solid to good and could be a big part of another tilt.

So over 8 years we brought in players that helped us win 3 flags and have the following still on the list
Gunston (Pick 29)
Breust (Rookie)
Sicily (Pick 56)
McEvoy (Pick 9)
Hardwick (Pick 44)
Mitchell (Pick 21 F/S)
O'Merea (Pick 1 2011 Mini Draft)
Impey (Pick 21)
Wingard (Pick 6)
Scully (Pick 1)
Scrimshaw (Pick 7)
O'Brien (Pick 28)
Howe (Pick 31)

are we really ignoring the elite end of the draft or are we just attacking it differently?

This is Hawthorn we are talking about here. Hawks always manage to get decent players with their late picks and rookie picks. Ddnt you guys get Isaac Smith late in the 2010 draft along with puopolo?

 

[Hannabal]

This is Hawthorn we are talking about here. Hawks always manage to get decent players with their late picks and rookie picks. Ddnt you guys get Isaac Smith late in the 2010 draft along with puopolo?

Smith was pick 19 in the ND.

Puopolo was pick 66 in the ND.

 

[Luv_our_club]

You suggesting Tigers faked being fun loving?

I think the Tigers had fun and thus they brought the wrong energy. I would rather they were full of anger, as a collective.

Riewoltd had organised his sing along to Mr Brightside before the game in 2017.... Alex Rance was on the footy show, being a goof with Sam. We see Dangerfield having fun with the media, being a goof. I lived through the years of Crawford on the footy show and Hawthorn stunk... i think this stuff matters... as a fan I don't like it for my club.

I prefer stories like gatorade showers being banned at the HFC, and Hodge making the team sing the club song properly without affectations and hoots. The old fashioned ways. i think it adds up, If you lose, don't smile and laugh with the opposition..

 

[faible]

I think the Tigers had fun and thus they brought the wrong energy. I would rather they were full of anger, as a collective.

Riewoltd had organised his sing along to Mr Brightside before the game in 2017.... Alex Rance was on the footy show, being a goof with Sam. We see Dangerfield having fun with the media, being a goof. I lived through the years of Crawford on the footy show and Hawthorn stunk... i think this stuff matters... as a fan I don't like it for my club.

I prefer stories like gatorade showers being banned at the HFC, and Hodge making the team sing the club song properly without affectations and hoots. The old fashioned ways. i think it adds up, If you lose, don't smile and laugh with the opposition..

I think in many ways it depends where the team is at.

Someone like Gold Coast probably needs to focus more on building a fun and professional environment, one where players want to stay and develop, but will also do things properly. Focus less on wins and losses and more on the process and development of the team and playing group.

Teams that want to be in contention, like an Essendon, need to build that relentless hard edge to their playing, so sure, try to make it fun, but when it comes down to it, WIN.

 

[Luv_our_club]

I think in many ways it depends where the team is at.

Someone like Gold Coast probably needs to focus more on building a fun and professional environment, one where players want to stay and develop, but will also do things properly. Focus less on wins and losses and more on the process and development of the team and playing group.

Teams that want to be in contention, like an Essendon, need to build that relentless hard edge to their playing, so sure, try to make it fun, but when it comes down to it, WIN.

I agree. It is a balance. Fun can be in house, especially with a young team like Gold Coast.

It is hard to change your team's mood or myth during a game. I imagine when the Tigers were 6 goals down in the first quarter to Collingwood in a preliminary final that that it wasn't much "fun" anymore, and the fun vibe wasn't helping them or reflecting how they felt. Better they enter the game angry and mean.

In 2013, the Hawks were angry about losing 2012.
In 2014, we were angry about Buddy while playing the Swans.
In 2015, we were angry about being written off after losing in Perth in the Qualifying final. Hodge carried around newspaper clippings of people criticising him in his wallet.

Sometimes the anger is fabricated, But i don;t believe the Tigers found a new way of being Zen, and above the game, and winning while being light hearted in 2018. That is obviously easier to say now because they didn't win.

 

[faible]

But i don;t believe the Tigers found a new way of being Zen, and above the game, and winning while being light hearted in 2018

They looked it during the H&A when they appeared a class above. Until they weren't.

I think you can get away with coming across that way when you're having a completely dominant season, but otherwise the 'fun' Richmond didn't have what it took at the business end, whereas the serious Richmond of 2017 did.

 

[Luv_our_club]

They looked it during the H&A when they appeared a class above. Until they weren't.

I think you can get away with coming across that way when you're having a completely dominant season, but otherwise the 'fun' Richmond didn't have what it took at the business end, whereas the serious Richmond of 2017 did.

The only team i can think of who came close to doing it was Geelong in 2007... actually no... they had a new team ethos of taking things more seriously.

 

[Maxabillions]

I think the Tigers had fun and thus they brought the wrong energy. I would rather they were full of anger, as a collective.

Riewoltd had organised his sing along to Mr Brightside before the game in 2017.... Alex Rance was on the footy show, being a goof with Sam. We see Dangerfield having fun with the media, being a goof. I lived through the years of Crawford on the footy show and Hawthorn stunk... i think this stuff matters... as a fan I don't like it for my club.

I prefer stories like gatorade showers being banned at the HFC, and Hodge making the team sing the club song properly without affectations and hoots. The old fashioned ways. i think it adds up, If you lose, don't smile and laugh with the opposition..

I think the entire playing group should be regularly beaten, emotionally abused, and deprived of any kind of enjoyment of life, to really give them that extra edge of desperate unhappiness.

 

[Nugett]

I think the entire playing group should be regularly beaten, emotionally abused, and deprived of any kind of enjoyment of life, to really give them that extra edge of desperate unhappiness.

Does that mean Hird is going to coach again?

 

[Randy Campbell]

Do you think the best list always wins?

I do. Winning is how you become the best.
If you don't win, how can you really be the best.

 

[The Chad and I]

What a pity you lost ORourke.

He was a number 2 pick

You make the point for Hawthorn.
The circle is now complete.
Close the thread.

 

[Gralin]

I do. Winning is how you become the best.
If you don't win, how can you really be the best.

Nah
Best on the day isn't always the best all year.
Like i said injuries and form issues at the wrong time can cost teams in a close comp

Best list to some is best 22, others might think best 25 or best 30

The top team doesnt always win and history across sports is littered with underdogs winning because talent can s**t the bed just like anyone

 

[tonygeeks]

I think the entire playing group should be regularly beaten, emotionally abused, and deprived of any kind of enjoyment of life, to really give them that extra edge of desperate unhappiness.

Thought you were describing Fremantle fans for a minute there


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Randy Campbell]

Nah
Best on the day isn't always the best all year.
Like i said injuries and form issues at the wrong time can cost teams in a close comp

Best list to some is best 22, others might think best 25 or best 30

The top team doesnt always win and history across sports is littered with underdogs winning because talent can s**t the bed just like anyone

The list the wins the premierships has to be the best.
How can you be the best list all year if you are not the best list at the end of it?
If Injuries and form are the reason, how can the list still be the best?

 

[Luv_our_club]

I think the entire playing group should be regularly beaten, emotionally abused, and deprived of any kind of enjoyment of life, to really give them that extra edge of desperate unhappiness.

Yeah but looking through the classifieds it costs a lot of money for those services.

 

[Hannabal]

The list the wins the premierships has to be the best.
How can you be the best list all year if you are not the best list at the end of it?
If Injuries and form are the reason, how can the list still be the best?

So Adelaide can have the second best list one year and the 12th best the next ?

That doesn't make sense, therefore the are extraneous issues at play.

 

[Pessimistic]

I think the entire playing group should be regularly beaten, emotionally abused, and deprived of any kind of enjoyment of life, to really give them that extra edge of desperate unhappiness.

Yeah but looking through the classifieds it costs a lot of money for those services.

So Adelaide can have the second best list one year and the 12th best the next ?

That doesn't make sense, therefore the are extraneous issues at play.

Didn’t work for Adelaide

 

[PenAndPaper]

We don't ignore the elite end of the draft, we just trade them in...

 

[Randy Campbell]

So Adelaide can have the second best list one year and the 12th best the next ?

That doesn't make sense, therefore the are extraneous issues at play.

The list is never the same each year.
But
It could be the reason why history is littered with so many underdog teams winning.
The fault is how we rate teams and the measurements we use.
The expert analysis, is still only a guess.
Just because you know what has happened, it doesn't mean you know what will happened.

 

[Luv_our_club]

Didn’t work for Adelaide

Adelaide:
It looks from a distance that Adelaide made it about posturing and false bravado. And Tex Walker is not a man I would want to lead me anywhere. But it shouldn't be that hard. Just get the team to sit around a campfire (or walk Kokoda), and chose a few values they want to live up to. And it helps a lot if your captain actually embodies those values.

Richmond
After Richmond's dire 30 years, they were probably too desperate for success, and too demanding, and thus lightening the mood a little probably helped them..... but after they won the flag, they probably needed to switch to something a little harder edged..

Geelong
I always remember the Cat's player (Mooney?) saying in 2008 that "Last year the flag was for the fans, This year, it is for us the players"........

Just some thoughts about the emotional part of the game.

 

[Luv_our_club]

The list is never the same each year.
But
It could be the reason why history is littered with so many underdog teams winning.
The fault is how we rate teams and the measurements we use.
The expert analysis, is still only a guess.
Just because you know what has happened, it doesn't mean you know what will happened.

Talent alone is not enough... i think that is what Hannabal is saying. There are the immeasurable factors that make all the difference. Esprit d' Corp

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Surely this remains to be seen?


Close, but Ceglar would be in there somewhere I would suggest.

Pretty handy side I’d have thought if everyone is up and running.



Gotta love statements like “players a,b,c and d wouldn’t get a game in other top 4 sides”.... it can’t be quantified at all.

And generally, if you’re youngest players are your best players you’re genuinely going to be as s**t as Carlton or GC.


Mate, 12 months ago posters on here said Hawthorn had no youth coming through. Some still parrot that it’s the worst in the league.

That worst youth in the league got two Rising Star noms in 2018, and then 7 first and second year players combined late in the year to come with a rush and win a VFL flag together. One of them was the second highest goals scoring key forward in the comp while alternating into the ruck, another was arguably the player of the finals in his first year. That’s just two of a handful who had very good ends to their years.

I swear people just look at where a player was taken in the draft rather than their actual output, as you have done above, when critiquing who is ‘coming through’.

I’m not saying they’ll be superstars either, but Box Hill has housed numerous rookies and late picks who have gone on to become very good AFL players, so I scoff a little when I watch them win a flag but then read that “there’s not a lot coming through” because we’ve been reading that for a few years now and even as recently as 12 months ago as a reason Hawthorn were about to bottom out.


There is actually more reason to believe Hawthorn will continue to attract players than not, as arrogant as that sounds. His name is Alistair Clarkson.

Thoughts that Hawthorn will just drop away and players will not want to play under the best coach in the land is just fantasy at this stage.


But we’ve already done that after removing Mitchell, Hodge, Gibson, Lake and Lewis.... so will you really be impressed or will you be back here in 2020 saying that you’ll be impressed if we don’t slide in 2022?

Close but no Ceglar?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Close but no Ceglar?

Could’ve been some of my best work if I was paying attention.

Happy New Years mate. We haven’t butted heads for a while.