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Easy enough
Racing January Daily Punt - It's Magic (Millions) You Know
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iluvparis
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Beating Fell Swoop less than a length hasn't been good enough to win a G1 for about 2.5 years - she'll need to improve.
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Paris plz Brave Smash’s GF this prep has been All star Mile from the get go if you think Weir would have ever had him wound up enough for that race you have to admit you were wrong. Go back to last and run on very predictable
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In addition it’s pretty clear the other 2 weir all star milers (lop & fifty stars) were under the same if not very similar instructions
iluvparis
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Lol so predictable
he has settled last a grand total of zero times in his career
hasn't raced over a mile since coming to Australia
Isn't anywhere near getting voted into the field
But given the betting drift obviously everyone read the tea leaves better than me.
Weir has made most Melbourne racing a complete no go zone for me these days - thank Christ the utensil can't train Cox Plate or Cups horses.
iluvparis
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So clear that Fifty Stars was challenging for top 3 in betting by the jump
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surely shades off were a sign of intent for brave smash. 60:1 pop beaten 2.5 off slow tempo, Redkirk wobbled round the turn. Land of plenty fairly limited and still close. Ones beaten out of sight fairly inconsistent these days. Weak race will rate lowly. Whispering Brook holds form and wins which market predicted with others a way off their grand final.
No reason at all it why it can't win something like a Robert Sangster stakes in May, or even a Goodwood Hcp (ran 5th last year I think).
iluvparis
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Oh if you mean SA G1s then entirely fair call.
iluvparis
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Lol why’s he running it if he knows it can’t win. Should have been immediately scratched by stewards.
iluvparis
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It’s based on the rating of the placegetters over the last 3 years from memory. So Winx has probably won 8 of the 9
Funnily enough Weir is notorious for talking down his horses and then they come out and win.
Blue Diamond previews today.
Any thoughts?
I note half the runners by I am Invincible, Exceed and Excel or Rubick
Any thoughts?
I note half the runners by I am Invincible, Exceed and Excel or Rubick
iluvparis
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Would be unAustralian not to back the toppies!
This is where that poster from a few years back Main Man was useful as seemed to have a good handle on 2yo form.
But of course Paris had countless arguments with him and he left
But of course Paris had countless arguments with him and he left
iluvparis
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If by having a good handle you mean tipping about 10 of them to be future G1 horses then you would be correct.
Main Man just loved tipping the short faves so he would have the same strategy as me today
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If by having a good handle you mean tipping about 10 of them to be future G1 horses then you would be correct.
Main Man just loved tipping the short faves so he would have the same strategy as me today
Accurate.
Unlike the big 2yo races there’s a lot of first starters so your only way to be confident is if one of the tried horses simply so far above average that it’s unlikely to run into a better one.
And of course that horse will be very short if it’s there at all.
Yes last night valley good example of benefit race experience.
2yo Hulk was spruiked at $2.50 but Lankan Star had its measure with the 1 run under its belt. Youd expect Hulk to be better for the run.
The colts division has one well backed to win debut - I am Immortal. Would need to be very smart
A few bets only for me today
Caulfield
R5. Lobster Noodles e/w
R7. Lamborghini
R8. Emperors Way
Randwick
R7. Religfy e/w
The Sportsbet tipster picked Tom Melbourne....
Caulfield
R5. Lobster Noodles e/w
R7. Lamborghini
R8. Emperors Way
Randwick
R7. Religfy e/w
The Sportsbet tipster picked Tom Melbourne....
iluvparis
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If it's still Kevin Case tipping for Best Bets in NSW he genuinely has NFI
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ok.
race 7 asct.
genuinely confused.
Come Play with me $4.80. winter stakes 3yo first up in whats nearly a open aged stakes race. last season first up drifted from 1.70 to $6 in a geraldton class 5 which really rated as a class 1. got beaten pointlessly. i priced this as a warm up run for the country cup round in coming months.
Probably settles last first up 1500 from barrier 3 going to be tucked up on rails My Greek Boy/Wrinkly might be 18 lengths ahead of it on the turn if it goes back. will start double figures potentially deep into double figures.
my greek boy all day long at 26's. while delicate miss maps well is probably marginally out of her class but is running very well for her.
FWIW if he goes his best i have him around 15:1.
edit MGB now 31's!!
race 7 asct.
genuinely confused.
Come Play with me $4.80. winter stakes 3yo first up in whats nearly a open aged stakes race. last season first up drifted from 1.70 to $6 in a geraldton class 5 which really rated as a class 1. got beaten pointlessly. i priced this as a warm up run for the country cup round in coming months.
Probably settles last first up 1500 from barrier 3 going to be tucked up on rails My Greek Boy/Wrinkly might be 18 lengths ahead of it on the turn if it goes back. will start double figures potentially deep into double figures.
my greek boy all day long at 26's. while delicate miss maps well is probably marginally out of her class but is running very well for her.
FWIW if he goes his best i have him around 15:1.
edit MGB now 31's!!
Had MGB at 51's (boosted from 31's on ladbrokes) only to see it go to 17's before i got on!
Will keep my eye on this
$13 now on tab
