Analysis Regardless of this week's result, we've had an amazing season

[dogwatch]

I posted this in the "Finals chances" thread but it's relevant here too, so I'll post it again.

The right hand column ("change") shows the difference between ladder position Rds 1-11 and ladder position Rds 12-22. In other words we were 14th after Rd 11 and we are 3rd on games played since then.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

No it’s not that simple. However, missing finals can’t be an AMAZING season - Who will look back on this season in 5-10 years time and say “yep bloody, brilliant and satisfying year in 2019. Exceeded my expectations”?

My pre season prediction was we’d be about where we are now, maybe slightly better (as far as I remember)

If the Dogs 2019 season is amazing if we finish 11th, what would you classify our 2015, 2016 seasons or Brisbane’s 2019?

I’ll definitely remember this season. Probably for the fact of how well we’ve performed leading in to the most important part of the season and also how the young lads are starting to gel as a side. I for one didn’t predict prior to our JLT and RD 1 games we’d be playing such a strong brand of footy and have quiet a few players that have improved so much. So in that sense the season has exceeded expectations. I predicted we’d finish just outside the 8 but didn’t think we’d be playing like a top 4 team in the process. So in that sense it has exceeded expectations. For me.

Regardless of our ladder position come round 23, this has a lot of 2015 about it and I’m tipping the next few years may have a bit of 2016 about them.

 

[Lex22]

I was just looking at the fixture and jeez we ended up having a tough draw;

Brisbane x2
Geelong x2
Wce in Perth
Rich
Collingwood x2
Gws in Sydney

9 games against the best teams in the comp and only 3 were played at Marvel.

For comparison Brisbane have played;

Geel in Brisbane
Wce in Brisbane
Rich this week in Melb
Coll in Brisbane
Gws in Sydney

5 games, 3 of which were at the Gabba

Geelong;

Bris in Bris
Wce in Geel
Rich at the G
Coll at the G
Gws in Geel

5 games, 1 interstate

Wce have played Bris, Geel, Rich and Gws once and doubled up against Pies.

Gws have played Bris, Geel, Wce, Coll once and doubled up against Tigers.

None of Bris, Geel or Rich had to travel to Perth to play WCE.

We are the only team that had to do the Optus, Gabba, Spotless and Kardinia quaddie...

Add in the fact that we are still putting out a team with under 2000 games experience every week and you can see what an amazing feat it has been to be sitting in the eight...

Could not be prouder of this group. Go Dogs!

Agree regarding the draw. Yep, it’s never going to be perfect but how Richmond managed 7 MCG games in a row to round out the season with their last interstate bring Gold Coast, I’ll never know but of course, pencil us for two Perth trips in the first half of the season. Seems fair.

From here however, it’s undoubtably a failure if we can’t beat Adelaide to cement a finals slot, especially off recent form.

Prior to the year, I thought we were a 9-10 win sort of side but now, this group deserves and should be in a final.

 

[Dog 36]

How can you call missing the finals with a (comparatively) small amount of injuries throughout the season amazing? Add that on top of 2 previous seasons of not making the finals.

May not have had injuries like previous years but at the start of 19 season we had Picken, Boyd and Morris on our list and they played a combined half a game for the year.

Add Webb who was on the list but had no preseason as was in a neck brace.

Not ideal

 

[Yojimbo]

Reverse graphs then a ladder, dog-watch (YTM) YOU'RE THE MAN, statistical greatness.

 

[Triple Baileys]

I was just looking at the fixture and jeez we ended up having a tough draw;

Brisbane x2
Geelong x2
Wce in Perth
Rich
Collingwood x2
Gws in Sydney

9 games against the best teams in the comp and only 3 were played at Marvel.

For comparison Brisbane have played;

Geel in Brisbane
Wce in Brisbane
Rich this week in Melb
Coll in Brisbane
Gws in Sydney

5 games, 3 of which were at the Gabba

Geelong;

Bris in Bris
Wce in Geel
Rich at the G
Coll at the G
Gws in Geel

5 games, 1 interstate

Wce have played Bris, Geel, Rich and Gws once and doubled up against Pies.

Gws have played Bris, Geel, Wce, Coll once and doubled up against Tigers.

None of Bris, Geel or Rich had to travel to Perth to play WCE.

We are the only team that had to do the Optus, Gabba, Spotless and Kardinia quaddie...

Add in the fact that we are still putting out a team with under 2000 games experience every week and you can see what an amazing feat it has been to be sitting in the eight...

Could not be prouder of this group. Go Dogs!

The "difficulty of the draw" that is put out before the start of the season is probably markedly different to the one that emerges after the h&a season most seasons. Your excellent OP points this out. At the start of the season, it was thought we had one of the softest draws. Not so when the form is in.

 

[hoianbulldog]

I’m with you Wally. To be angry at our season almost purely for missing finals, while ignoring the many positives is pretty narrow minded. We’re 6th in Premiership betting currently and are being spoken about as one of the real dangers to go deep in to finals all the while being in 10th spot 4 days ago.

We aren’t fighting for a top 4 double chance spot because our immaturity and lack of experience has cost us in a few games his year. Instead we’re fighting for a top 8 spot with the real possibility of going further if we achieve it.

Soooo much to be happy with at this point. I feel sorry for those that can’t enjoy it.

Look at it another way.

We lose the 2016 prelim by a point. Everyman and his dog would have pegged us to improve on that the following year.

Ok ok there were a few hangover issues but that team was never gunna challenge the next year.

Its about taking opportunities when they are there and not thinking you have a right for that same opportunity to present itself next year.

We lose 2016 prelim and our last premiership was 1954.

 

[ScragCity]

I was just looking at the fixture and jeez we ended up having a tough draw;

Brisbane x2
Geelong x2
Wce in Perth
Rich
Collingwood x2
Gws in Sydney

9 games against the best teams in the comp and only 3 were played at Marvel.

For comparison Brisbane have played;

Geel in Brisbane
Wce in Brisbane
Rich this week in Melb
Coll in Brisbane
Gws in Sydney

5 games, 3 of which were at the Gabba

Geelong;

Bris in Bris
Wce in Geel
Rich at the G
Coll at the G
Gws in Geel

5 games, 1 interstate

Wce have played Bris, Geel, Rich and Gws once and doubled up against Pies.

Gws have played Bris, Geel, Wce, Coll once and doubled up against Tigers.

None of Bris, Geel or Rich had to travel to Perth to play WCE.

We are the only team that had to do the Optus, Gabba, Spotless and Kardinia quaddie...

Add in the fact that we are still putting out a team with under 2000 games experience every week and you can see what an amazing feat it has been to be sitting in the eight...

Could not be prouder of this group. Go Dogs!

WHAT IT DO BABY

I had us winning seven games at the start of the year so I'm honestly rapt. We are moving in the right direction which is enough to keep me content. We have Bontempelli and Naughton in the same team. What more could you want? Bloody good time to be a Dogs supporter.

 

[Substance]

I have posted this stat previously but I'll say it again;

In the last 8 years only two teams have made the finals with an average games experience of less than 2000. Dogs in 2015 and Dogs in 2016. If we beat the Crows we can add Dogs 2019 to that list.

It is absolutely amazing that we are in this position once again...

I'm torn on what expectations to have about us, just because of how good our midfield is. They've got plenty of games under their belt now, so that's no longer an excuse.

But when you look at our spine there is no experience or age there except for Trengove. So in that sense it's remarkable that we are able to take it up to sides that have a bunch of 25-30 year olds making up their spine.

 

[DelRe]

I was just looking at the fixture and jeez we ended up having a tough draw;

Brisbane x2
Geelong x2
Wce in Perth
Rich
Collingwood x2
Gws in Sydney

9 games against the best teams in the comp and only 3 were played at Marvel.

For comparison Brisbane have played;

Geel in Brisbane
Wce in Brisbane
Rich this week in Melb
Coll in Brisbane
Gws in Sydney

5 games, 3 of which were at the Gabba

Geelong;

Bris in Bris
Wce in Geel
Rich at the G
Coll at the G
Gws in Geel

5 games, 1 interstate

Wce have played Bris, Geel, Rich and Gws once and doubled up against Pies.

Gws have played Bris, Geel, Wce, Coll once and doubled up against Tigers.

None of Bris, Geel or Rich had to travel to Perth to play WCE.

We are the only team that had to do the Optus, Gabba, Spotless and Kardinia quaddie...

Add in the fact that we are still putting out a team with under 2000 games experience every week and you can see what an amazing feat it has been to be sitting in the eight...

Could not be prouder of this group. Go Dogs!

Unfortunately I think a well intended point has been lost in some semantics and superlatives. If the title was regardless of this weekend’s results, there’s a lot to be positive about, the discussion might have been more about that than the use of the word amazing.

I agree with the analysis of ‘overcoming’ a hindsight tough draw and some unexpected retirements and there’s a positive trend but not making finals is tough to describe as amazing for mine.

Query too - if Brisbane had an easy draw which inflates their performance doesn’t that undermine the argument that our draw is tougher because we play them twice?

 

[mattwa]

We will look back on this year as laying the foundations for our next flag tilt

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Unfortunately I think a well intended point has been lost in some semantics and superlatives. If the title was regardless of this weekend’s results, there’s a lot to be positive about, the discussion might have been more about that than the use of the word amazing.

I agree with the analysis of ‘overcoming’ a hindsight tough draw and some unexpected retirements and there’s a positive trend but not making finals is tough to describe as amazing for mine.

Query too - if Brisbane had an easy draw which inflates their performance doesn’t that undermine the argument that our draw is tougher because we play them twice?

I think people get caught up in the use of a word too much. It wouldn't matter which superlative I used, someone would have found fault with it...It's the internet and it's 2019.

Good, great, remarkable, memorable...it's however you want to see it and to me it has been truly amazing.

We've gone from being a potential bottom 4 side and having Bevo under pressure, to being rated as one of the most dangerous sides in the comp and a legit premiership threat...all within the space of about 12 weeks. I'm happy to stick with amazing.

As for Brisbane, I'm not denying their quality. They have beaten Geel, Wce and Gws but they have only had to play each of the top 6 sides only once this year. Would they be top of the ladder if they doubled up against Collingwood, Geelong and Richmond for example? I'm thinking probably not.

 

[Sentinel]

I'm convinced our slow start to the season was simply a ploy to ensure we had a high enough pick to grab Ryan Gardner.

 

[Struggle]

Missing finals would really sting after how we played our first 6 rounds, especially wasting Dunkley as a forward. But either way, I'm excited for the 2020 flag that we're guaranteed to win

 

[Dazb86]

Amazing is probably an overstatement but we've exceeded my personal expectations. I still feel the coaching team had it wrong earlier in the year with the extremely undersized back 6 and a few questionable selections and positional choices along the journey.

I think we have the right mix now and hopefully going forward the experimentation eases up a bit.

Dunkley has been a revelation in the middle and as the season has gone on English has started to perform well. Naughton up forward is great and Schache is a nice foil. Picking accurate kicks at goal in the F50 has changed the look of the group since earlier in the year. Lipinski, B.Dale and Schache have been taking their opportunities and the W/L column shows.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Look at it another way.

We lose the 2016 prelim by a point. Everyman and his dog would have pegged us to improve on that the following year.

Ok ok there were a few hangover issues but that team was never gunna challenge the next year.

Its about taking opportunities when they are there and not thinking you have a right for that same opportunity to present itself next year.

We lose 2016 prelim and our last premiership was 1954.

In this hypothetical, while it’s kind of unfair, Bevo’s career record more or less mirrors Ken Hinkley’s at the same stage (ie finals, close prelim loss, out, out, probable return to finals).

Port lost that prelim by 3 but kicked 13.16. Might have won the next week and then you have Port doing a ‘16 in ‘14.

Just goes to show, a coach and a club’s reputation can turn on a few kicks.

 

[Anja_Nees]

I’ll definitely remember this season. Probably for the fact of how well we’ve performed leading in to the most important part of the season and also how the young lads are starting to gel as a side. I for one didn’t predict prior to our JLT and RD 1 games we’d be playing such a strong brand of footy and have quiet a few players that have improved so much. So in that sense the season has exceeded expectations. I predicted we’d finish just outside the 8 but didn’t think we’d be playing like a top 4 team in the process. So in that sense it has exceeded expectations. For me.

Regardless of our ladder position come round 23, this has a lot of 2015 about it and I’m tipping the next few years may have a bit of 2016 about them.

Reminds me a bit of 2005 too and will even more if we miss out. Started well, lost our way and came home with a wet sail. Didn’t really curse missing finals a great deal after we improved the next year and (after a bumpy ‘07) made three prelims.

Will hurt if we miss after coming so far, but if it’s a springboard for better things I’ll get over it. If we don’t go on with it I’ll roll my eyes if this year is even mentioned.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

I'm convinced our slow start to the season was simply a ploy to ensure we had a high enough pick to grab Ryan Gardner.

I said some months ago that Bevo had a PLAN

Mind you, I wasn't talking about Gardner

Edit: searching back the PLAN I mentioned was for the game against Geelong. But I underestimated Bevo, once again. His plan was long-term. And then people put up threads doubting him - for shame!

 

[DelRe]

We've gone from being a potential bottom 4 side and having Bevo under pressure, to being rated as one of the most dangerous sides in the comp and a legit premiership threat...all within the space of about 12 weeks. I'm happy to stick with amazing.

Might depend a bit on what you measure it against. For example, against expectations at the start of the year it’s probably slightly better or there or thereabouts right now, definitely better though if they make finals.

Given where the team is now though and current form, not beating an interstate team in Victoria that is currently below it on the ladder when there’s everything to play for with few injuries and not make finals would be a failure.

Where they’ve come from since the bye and addressing losing Boyd (a surprisingly under acknowledged story in the media it seems) it is closer to amazing in effort perhaps but still I feel not an amazing season if not able to go further. Then again I’ve always been a bit anti the seemingly old Bulldogs way of being happy with good efforts or perhaps a lack of ruthlessness.

Either way though, really enjoy your stats/observations and thread starters. Enough to write long useless responses!

 

[LondonBulldog]

No time for season reviews yet.

No reason why they can't win another premiership. That's what ever player and supporter should be thinking.

p.s. love your stats though.

 

[AFDogs]

I think the major improvement this year was Bevo's coaching. Looked lost and incompetent at times this year, he's finally worked out the formula and where his players play best. Team selections are much better now with guys like Lipinski and Dale taking the next step after long stints in the twos.

It took him until the byes to get the mix right and he's given himself and the team a massive chance of doing damage in the finals.

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

I think the major improvement this year was Bevo's coaching. Looked lost and incompetent at times this year, he's finally worked out the formula and where his players play best. Team selections are much better now with guys like Lipinski and Dale taking the next step after long stints in the twos.

It took him until the byes to get the mix right and he's given himself and the team a massive chance of doing damage in the finals.

if we make finals then i think bevo has restored faith in a lot of dogs fans who might have questioned him (including myself)
we belted a team by 100 pts and 60 in consecutive weeks, i wasnt aware we had the capabilities to do that with this team.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Might depend a bit on what you measure it against. For example, against expectations at the start of the year it’s probably slightly better or there or thereabouts right now, definitely better though if they make finals.

Given where the team is now though and current form, not beating an interstate team in Victoria that is currently below it on the ladder when there’s everything to play for with few injuries and not make finals would be a failure.

Where they’ve come from since the bye and addressing losing Boyd (a surprisingly under acknowledged story in the media it seems) it is closer to amazing in effort perhaps but still I feel not an amazing season if not able to go further. Then again I’ve always been a bit anti the seemingly old Bulldogs way of being happy with good efforts or perhaps a lack of ruthlessness.

Either way though, really enjoy your stats/observations and thread starters. Enough to write long useless responses!

Cheers bud, i too enjoy your posting. I think its funny that people will say that missing the finals makes for a disappointing season, yet everyone looks fondly back at 2005. Why? Because it was memorable and it was an amazing run we went on.

I think Charlie said it perfectly earlier, one game should not define whether a season is considered great or not. At the moment everyone is pumped but if we go down to the Crows there are plenty who think we will have failed.

I like to see the bigger picture and see this year as an amazing step forwards towards what we are all craving...sustainable success.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Here is a summary of our Time Capsule picks. The red circle shows where we are after Rd 22.

Clearly we have already exceeded the expectations of the majority who posted. A win on Sunday will move us further to the left - probably in both charts.


View attachment 730570

Hey - I think I'm one of those three columns inside the lower red circle!

 

[dogwatch]

Hey - I think I'm one of those three columns inside the lower red circle!

You were, but not the upper circle. Not bad.

The only ones who tipped 12 H&A wins (if that's how it ends up) were Kermit and Libba39 . They were the other two (in addition to you) who said we'd finish 8th.

The only one to pick us for 7th (if that's how it ends up) was TempletonTheRat .