Preview Peter Crimmins Medal 2019

[streetspirit]

Bit off topic... anyone know who else won Hawks B&F by 20 years old?

Swamp has consulted the books

 

[Billyc]

Need Chad to be in the top 3 next season, to be honest he's probably the most talented player on our list.

Chad and Worpel are the two most important players on our list in terms of success over the next 3 years. We know what we will get from Mitchell. But he needs elite level support and Chad and Worpel are the two who can give it - Chad by getting back to his best (and hopefully even exceeding it) and Worpel by continuing his development as a player and leader.

Back to Worpel, what an outstanding season from the young bloke. Not only took on mantle of best midfielder without Mitchell but gets the honour of being the club’s best player, period, for 2019. That is tremendous reward and exciting for the future.

Where our more experienced players finished explains why we finished where we did. As supposed leaders, Smith and Gunston in particular stand out.

 

[SuperSic]

Thanks Simon, that’s really interesting and insightful. Perhaps it exposes why we might just have to say goodbye to some of our veterans this trade period. It is disappointing that they were largely the ones holding us back this year. Many of the youngsters can hold their heads high.

 

[Carl Spackler]

We all know I love numbers, and now the coaches have had their say, here's some figures to compare.

On a macro level, coaches votes totaled 1576, down from 1972 in 2018. After factoring the extra two games (528 v 484), this results in a 13% reduction in votes per game. Using my arbitrary categories from last year..

(2017 had 4 voters, 2018 onwards just 3).



2019 MVP (>6) - ZERO after ONE in 2018.

Mitchell was MVP in 2018, obviously missed this season with his injury. Worpel went closest but was still down on the target figure of 132 votes. I had hoped for O'Meara and Sicily to step up in 2019 but both actually slipped backwards from their 2018 performance. Impey was impressive before his injury.

2019 "A" Grade (beat most opponents >4.5) FIVE - (8 in 2018)
Worpel, Impey, O'Meara, Henderson, Sicily.

O'Meara and Sicily hold their "A" Grade rating, joined by Worpel, Impey and Henderson who all stepped up this year.
Harwick, Gunston, Smith, McEvoy, Breust and Stratton all dropped back.

"12 A-Graders" was the target. We have 5, with a large collection of senior players slipping back a level. Dropping from 9 "A" graders to 5 suggests a LOT of work to be done.

Temporary or a sign of decline?

2019 "B" Grade (beat some opponents, >3) ELEVEN- (8 in 2018)
Shiels, Hardwick, Wingard, McEvoy, Frawley, Birchall, Breust, Stratton, Smith, Gunston, O'Brien

A large group of senior players here, with Wingard and Birchall showing their class in limited exposure due to injury.

Burgoyne, Rioli, Roughead, Howe gone, whilst Impey was upgraded to "A Grade". Two of those are retired already, Howe out-of-favour whilst Burgoyne is doing his best John Farnham impression.

Based on the premiership model having 22 "B" Graders, we are at least 6 players short - all of whom should be in "A" grade territory.

2019 "C" Grade (performed more often than not - >2) TEN - (9 in 2018)
Lewis, Howe, Burgoyne, Scully, Roughead, Jiath, Ceglar, Hanrahan, Puopolo, Cousins

Worpel upgraded straight to "A" grade from this group.
Duryea, Burton traded out.
Mirra, Nash, Morrison dropped to "D' Grade
Lewis upgraded from "D" grade
Scully, Jiath and Hanrahan added to list.

You don't want to be >23 and in this group.

Roughead retired, Burgoyne and Puopolo going again, whilst Ceglar and Scully are over their injuries and MUST move up.

2019 "D" Grade (below average, beaten more than not, <2) TWENTY- (18 in 2018)
Pittonet, Mirra, Nash, Scrimshaw, Morrison, Glass, Brand, Moore, (and 12 zero gamers)

O'brien steps up (straight to "B Grade"!), Lewis ("C Grade").
Whitecross, O'rourke delisted.
The rest were kept

Essentially you don't want any "D" grade games on your list - we had on average of six! in the team each week. Anyone >22 should be an almost automatic delist.

======
Perception is a funny thing. I started this research thinking it would reinforce my understanding that we actually weren't too far away. I've ended it thinking we need a hell of a lot to go right.

We have a large core of senior players that as a group critically under-performed in 2019 - much of it due to injury but cannot afford to 'waste' another season at this level.

(Attached Excel for 18 vs 19 comparisons.

I think this analysis is good. It has one unstated assumption, however, that could have a significant impact on how players are rated. Not within a season, but from season to season. It assumes that coaches rate consistently each year. That what they call a 3 effort in one year is the same as a 3 effort in the next year.

If coach expectations rise faster than player efforts then the relative effect from one year to the next would be falling player ratings even though objectively player effort improved. I'm not saying that this is what happened, just pointing out that there is an unknowable variable that almost certainly has a significant year-to-year impact that would make this sort of comparison insightful but not definitive. I think your grading into A, B, etc and the player movements between them demonstrating who is having the greatest impact on the games is spot on, though.

 

[Bumpswithagrin]

Forgot to say also, well done to Ollie on winning best first year player

 

[Hodginator]

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Thriller for Worps.

Given how many games Poppy played and how poorly he scored, doesn;t appear he was doing too much of the stuff the coaches request that us punters are not aware of. No wonder we keep getting linked to every small forward considering a move.

 

[Beandip]

Simon_Nesbit - thank you for the extremely insightful, if not depressing stats. I think you're not far off the club's thinking and placement of individuals. I think we need to make a number of calls to just move people on (e.g. Schoenmakers, Moore), and hold people accountable for performance (e.g. Stratton, Gunston).

Of the youngest BNF average clubs listed from swamp it would be interesting to see the same analysis. I think GWS and WBD would blow us away, STK/Melb unsure.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Simon_Nesbit - thank you for the extremely insightful, if not depressing stats. I think you're not far off the club's thinking and placement of individuals. I think we need to make a number of calls to just move people on (e.g. Schoenmakers, Moore), and hold people accountable for performance (e.g. Stratton, Gunston).

Of the youngest BNF average clubs listed from swamp it would be interesting to see the same analysis. I think GWS and WBD would blow us away, STK/Melb unsure.

thanks to Chaisa for all the hard work...in the "Hawks ignore the elite end" thread.

On this, just did a ranking of the average and median ages for B&F Top 10's. Here they are:

Average:

Geelong	27.7
North Melbourne	27.7
West Coast	26.8
Adelaide	26.7
Richmond	26.54545
Brisbane Lions	26.3
Collingwood	26.3
Carlton	26
Hawthorn	25.9
Fremantle	25.2
Gold Coast	24.9
GWS	24.9
Essendon	24.7
Port Adelaide	24.7
Sydney	24.7
St Kilda	24.3
Western Bulldogs	24.3
Melbourne	23.6

Richmond would rank 3rd with an average age of 27 if you took out one of the players that finished equal 10th.


Median:

Geelong	28
North Melbourne	28
Adelaide	27
Richmond	27
West Coast	27
Hawthorn	26.5
Brisbane Lions	26
Carlton	26
Collingwood	26
Gold Coast	26
Fremantle	25.5
Essendon	25
GWS	24.5
Port Adelaide	24
Western Bulldogs	24
St Kilda	23.5
Sydney	23.5
Melbourne	23

So yeah, they don't fare as badly as what you otherwise might assume.

 

[DEECEE]

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[Davo23]

Forgot to say also, well done to Ollie on winning best first year player

it’s also a sign of the coaches’ faith in Ollie.

He showed some good signs, good pace and skills.
Experience will see some improvement

 

[CHUBBSS]

Does anyone know if clarkos speach is available? Would love to see it

 

[Lotus]

Does anyone know if clarkos speach is available? Would love to see it

PCM19: Clarko's address

Alastair Clarkson addresses the crowd at the 2019 Peter Crimmins Medal Ceremony.

m.hawthornfc.com.au

I must admit I've watched it twice already .

 

[Pessimistic]

Clarko mentioned his family bagged him mercielssly when the did the icy streak in canberra

 

[Zack]

Three things... Simon the great man Nesbit is back? If so I might have to make a trip down to Lonnie next if possible.

And secondly well done James Worpel, but also Mr Impey if you weren't injured did you already have it in the bag?

Finally If Hardwick gets isolated in an open situation cos he ain't quick and teams run off him... are our coaches saying he's done everything right and it's Sicily's fault? Seriously the B&F votes tend to say that. The second the year b4 was surprising, his inability to chase and get what 5thish this year is a little bit dumbfounding. Happy to have him in the team as a say 8 to 18th player but he was very much exploited by lack of place this year. There is no doubt teams targeted him.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

PCM Votes			Yabby medal votes
James Worpel	115​		James Worpel	48​
Ricky Henderson	104​		Ricky Henderson	44​
Jaegar O’Meara	103​		Jarman Impey	34​
James Sicily	100​		Ben McEvoy	28​
Blake Hardwick	90​		Jaeger O'Meara	27​
Jarman Impey	85​		James Sicily	23​
Liam Shiels	78​		Liam Shiels	19​
Ben McEvoy	75​		Chad Wingard	15​
Luke Breust	73​		Jack Gunston	14​
Ben Stratton	63​		Jonathan Ceglar	11​
Jack Gunston	62​		Shaun Burgoyne	11​
Isaac Smith	62​		Luke Breust	9​
James Frawley	62​		Tom Scully	8​
Chad Wingard	57​		Mitchell Lewis	8​
Tom Scully	56​		Blake Hardwick	7​
Tim O’Brien	49​		Tim O'Brien	5​
Shaun Burgoyne	48​		Jarryd Roughead	4​
Paul Puopolo	47​		Daniel Howe	4​
Mitchell Lewis	36​		James Frawley	4​
Daniel Howe	35​		Jack Scrimshaw	3​
Jonathon Ceglar	34​		James Cousins	2​
James Cousins	25​		Isaac Smith	1​
Jarryd Roughead	21​		Kaiden Brand	1​
Oliver Hanrahan	20​
Conor Nash	19​
Jack Scrimshaw	11​
Grant Birchall	10​
Harry Morrison	8​
Conor Glass	6​
David Mirra	6​
Changkouth Jiath	5​
Marc Pittonet	4​
Kaiden Brand	4​
Dylan Moore	3​

Interesting. In one system only the top five get votes. in the other anyone who plays well gets votes.

Am I the only one surprised that Stratton outpolled Frawley?
To me Chip had a really solid year playing on the opposition teams number 1 forwards whereas Stratts had an absolute mare of a year.
Could have been a few pity votes tossed his way given his well documented struggles adapting to his role as captain?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Am I the only one surprised that Stratton outpolled Frawley?
To me Chip had a really solid year playing on the opposition teams number 1 forwards whereas Stratts had an absolute mare of a year.
Could have been a few pity votes tossed his way given his well documented struggles adapting to his role as captain?

Or maybe he didn’t have “a mare of a year” and did what his coaches asked of him often enough to poll some votes?

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Or maybe he didn’t have “a mare of a year” and did what his coaches asked of him often enough to poll some votes?

More votes than Frawley?

 

[MasterSamurai]

More votes than Frawley?

Frawley had the better season over stratton. Coaches been choofing relentlessly before voting imo.

 

[Glenhope]

Does anyone know if clarkos speach is available? Would love to see it

You'll need a box of tissues. It's pretty good.

 

[grumbleguts]

Am I the only one surprised that Stratton outpolled Frawley?
To me Chip had a really solid year playing on the opposition teams number 1 forwards whereas Stratts had an absolute mare of a year.
Could have been a few pity votes tossed his way given his well documented struggles adapting to his role as captain?

He may have pinched a few votes from others.

 

[Agent Smith]

 

[Simon Crawshay]

He may have pinched a few votes from others.

Not a single vote for Stratts in the Yabby medal gives a pretty good representation of the kind of year he had.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Not a single vote for Stratts in the Yabby medal gives a pretty good representation of the kind of year he had.

Yes because the locals on this board have more credibility than the coach and assistant coaches mate. No one picked Gibson to win it in 2015

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Yes because the locals on this board have more credibility than the coach and assistant coaches mate. No one picked Gibson to win it in 2015

Okay let's make this really straight forward.
Who here thinks that across the entirety of the season Ben Stratton was on average one of our best 10 players over 2019?
Every game I watched he was consistently in the bottom 3 (both statistically and general impact on the game) apart from a handful of games towards the end of the season in which he performed well.
For him to have finished top 10 in the B&F after a season like that is flat out weird.
And you're point about Gibson is somewhat incognourous as although not many on Big Footy would have picked him as the winner of the Crimmins medal the years he won he was widely recognised by all and sundry as having excellent years across those seasons (making the all Australian squad of 40, racking up 30 possession games, etc) and he was up against some handy footballers (Mitch, Hodgey, etc).