Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[FAITH]

Wouldn't make sense for mfc not to bid on him given he's clearly in the top 3 players in the draft.

 

[Shai]

Thank you 4 being so tolerant Knightmare

I rate Anderson above Rowell and Flanders not far behind. It's difficult factoring in academy & F/S bids.

For my club, this is what I want with the current picks (of course it will change between then & now).

A midfield accumulator, an athletic winger, a strong mark that can get up & down the ground from the fwd 1/2 & a defender with the grunt that Clark has shown.

 

[Islanddoggy]

Hi KM

Cal Twomey tweeted the dogs are into Miles Bergman. Do you think he could go as high as 13? or have you heard the dogs are into anyone else? I see our needs as small forward and key back like Weightman and McAsey. Would appreciate your thoughts

 

[Knightmare]

Thank you 4 being so tolerant Knightmare

I rate Anderson above Rowell and Flanders not far behind. It's difficult factoring in academy & F/S bids.

For my club, this is what I want with the current picks (of course it will change between then & now).

A midfield accumulator, an athletic winger, a strong mark that can get up & down the ground from the fwd 1/2 & a defender with the grunt that Clark has shown.

I've had Anderson ahead of Rowell throughout the season, but watching the finals, it moved Rowell ahead on my board. Anderson has the height and forward of centre game beyond the midfield game. Numbers are similar. So it's easy to have Anderson ahead. Anderson through the finals I felt was quiet. He'd get 25-30d but without impact whereas Rowell every game and particularly in the Grand Final, you could feel him and the impact he was having on games. It was on another level.

Flanders I like and I'd struggle to find 5 others who are better this year. Forward of centre only Anderson is close, and he's a good midfielder on top of that.

Hi KM

Cal Twomey tweeted the dogs are into Miles Bergman. Do you think he could go as high as 13? or have you heard the dogs are into anyone else? I see our needs as small forward and key back like Weightman and McAsey. Would appreciate your thoughts

It's early for Bergman, though it would be early for Weightman also based on my own evaluation.

Dogs will be liking the penetration on his kick + marking. Does provide something else different with the Dogs needing a lot of things other than ball winning mids.

Kemp/McAsey would be the two I'd be hoping would be there not only on list fit but also on quality.

I suggest Bergman is one of a group the Dogs are looking at, but whether he is the priority to select at 13, I can't say I know just yet.

 

[Kangas_11]

Hey KM,

Awesome work again this year, lots of interesting prospects throughout the whole draft it seems.

Couple of questions, firstly do you have a combined 2019/20 draftees top 20 ranking available anywhere? Would be interesting to compare who North could pick up if Melbourne end up bottom 4 again against who's there at pick 8.

Also, do you project Dylan Williams as being able to develop into a mid/winger at AFL level? Would be tempted by the talent if he was there at 26, but wouldn't fill a need if he was playing as a medium forward.

 

[theGav56]

Sun's taking Martin in the psd means they will pay someone $700kd who doesnt want to be there and in all likelihood would take it easy and not get injured so he gets traded in 2020.

In effect paying $700k to get a late 1st round pick.

And yet when Geelong didn't trade Kelly and Fremantle didn't trade Hill they both went on to have career best seasons, and their clubs got great trade value for them the following year.

 

[theGav56]

Have just watched another Tom Green game. How GC don’t bid on him at two is totally beyond me. How Melb wouldn’t at 3 same. He’s a certain top 3 in the comp contested possession player. His ability to stand up in a tackle and hit running players in space by hand is amazing. I love Patrick Cripps. This kid is SO similar it’s not funny.

He’s the best player in this draft.

If he is top 3, why bid on him at 2? Why not draft the 2 players who are going to end up being taken at your picks and send the message that they are the choice you want to make?

 

[Obeanie1]

And yet when Geelong didn't trade Kelly and Fremantle didn't trade Hill they both went on to have career best seasons, and their clubs got great trade value for them the following year.

Kelly and Hill were both under contract not out of contract.

Martin asked for a trade two years in a row and it didn't happen two years in a row.

If Martin was redrafted by Gold Coast sure he may play a few games and do well but I would be my left nut come the second half of the year 'the clue would be in the rack' and he wouldnt risk injury.

Has any side redrafted a player in the PSD that has asked to be traded two years in a row?

AFLPA would not be impressed with that. The player requested twice to be traded but the club refused the first time and failed to the 2nd time.

Why should the player suffer?

 

[FAITH]

Why isn't Pickett valued as highly as he should be?

 

[SumTingWong]

KM, Any idea when we will be able to access video footage highlights of this years draft prospects? There's a few videos available on a few of the top
end guys but nothing else and the draft is 3 weeks away.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

I've had Anderson ahead of Rowell throughout the season, but watching the finals, it moved Rowell ahead on my board. Anderson has the height and forward of centre game beyond the midfield game. Numbers are similar. So it's easy to have Anderson ahead. Anderson through the finals I felt was quiet. He'd get 25-30d but without impact whereas Rowell every game and particularly in the Grand Final, you could feel him and the impact he was having on games. It was on another level.

Flanders I like and I'd struggle to find 5 others who are better this year. Forward of centre only Anderson is close, and he's a good midfielder on top of that.



It's early for Bergman, though it would be early for Weightman also based on my own evaluation.

Dogs will be liking the penetration on his kick + marking. Does provide something else different with the Dogs needing a lot of things other than ball winning mids.

Kemp/McAsey would be the two I'd be hoping would be there not only on list fit but also on quality.

I suggest Bergman is one of a group the Dogs are looking at, but whether he is the priority to select at 13, I can't say I know just yet.

Is Kemp at 13 realistic at all though? I would have assumed even if he made it out of the top ten, Hawthorn or Port would snap him up.

 

[theGav56]

Kelly and Hill were both under contract not out of contract.

Martin asked for a trade two years in a row and it didn't happen two years in a row.

If Martin was redrafted by Gold Coast sure he may play a few games and do well but I would be my left nut come the second half of the year 'the clue would be in the rack' and he wouldnt risk injury.

Has any side redrafted a player in the PSD that has asked to be traded two years in a row?

AFLPA would not be impressed with that. The player requested twice to be traded but the club refused the first time and failed to the 2nd time.

Why should the player suffer?

The player has put himself into the national draft. He had the option of opening up potential trades but instead nominated a single club who then failed to offer an acceptable trade. Given he is playing in the AFL he is aware of and accepting of AFL rules and regulations. He doesn't have to suffer. He can suck it up and get stuck into it just as most people do (Kelly and Hill examples).

End of the year GCSs have a windfall opportunity with a Free Agent on their hands who will be offered a substantial contract. Why should the let that go? Perhaps if Carlton are serious they can consider some live trade opportunity which benefits GCSs??? I would be quite happy for Fremantle to take him at whatever pick they value him at, and I would expect him to perform at his best.

 

[theGav56]

Why isn't Pickett valued as highly as he should be?

Maybe he is.

 

[buttons91]

Hey, Knightmare. Bit of a weird one for you. Was wondering if you could do the following as I think it would be interesting for us who don't follow the draft as closely as you.

1) Can you give me your top 10 on the players who will make an Impact in the AFL next year?
2) A top 10 for who will be there best players in 5 years
3) A top 10 on raw talent alone

thanks! Love your work

 

[Peel67skin]

Kelly and Hill were both under contract not out of contract.

Martin asked for a trade two years in a row and it didn't happen two years in a row.

If Martin was redrafted by Gold Coast sure he may play a few games and do well but I would be my left nut come the second half of the year 'the clue would be in the rack' and he wouldnt risk injury.

Has any side redrafted a player in the PSD that has asked to be traded two years in a row?

AFLPA would not be impressed with that. The player requested twice to be traded but the club refused the first time and failed to the 2nd time.

Why should the player suffer?

Player suffer, he is not getting new draftee wages like tim kelly. Jack Martin get paid at Least 500k after his initial two years - Money suffering.

 

[LittleG]

Kelly and Hill were both under contract not out of contract.

Martin asked for a trade two years in a row and it didn't happen two years in a row.

If Martin was redrafted by Gold Coast sure he may play a few games and do well but I would be my left nut come the second half of the year 'the clue would be in the rack' and he wouldnt risk injury.

Has any side redrafted a player in the PSD that has asked to be traded two years in a row?

AFLPA would not be impressed with that. The player requested twice to be traded but the club refused the first time and failed to the 2nd time.

Why should the player suffer?

IF Martin was desperate to leave, he would have asked to be traded to Victoria. There were many clubs interested and someone would have paid a first round pick that GCS wanted.

He asked for Carlton, which meant the Blues had to come up with the goods. Blues didn’t.... here we are.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,

Awesome work again this year, lots of interesting prospects throughout the whole draft it seems.

Couple of questions, firstly do you have a combined 2019/20 draftees top 20 ranking available anywhere? Would be interesting to compare who North could pick up if Melbourne end up bottom 4 again against who's there at pick 8.

Also, do you project Dylan Williams as being able to develop into a mid/winger at AFL level? Would be tempted by the talent if he was there at 26, but wouldn't fill a need if he was playing as a medium forward.

Dylan Williams may develop scope to push through the midfield but that will take time, for now he's more a forward who can pinch-hit through the midfield.

2020 I've yet to even start putting together a formative order and have not given thought yet to a combined draft. Post draft I'll reveal my 2020 top-20 once I have some time to settle on a 20.

What I will say re. early picks next year aside from Academy/f-s, Elijah Hollands, Will Phillips and Finlay Macrae in particular look really nice, in the Rowell/Anderson/Green conversation nice, and that's before considering the likes of Ugle-Hagan as part of the Dogs' NGA.

 

[Knightmare]

Why isn't Pickett valued as highly as he should be?

Depends how high you believe he should be rated. Some have Pickett in the second round and I don't think that's unrealistic because he brings the pressure, is high impact per possession and makes each disposal count. For me that's too high with Pickett with his lean production more suitable for selection in my view late/rookie. But he's one in the right range I feel is appropriate for selection. Particularly with smalls rarely improving all that much once in the system relatively.

KM, Any idea when we will be able to access video footage highlights of this years draft prospects? There's a few videos available on a few of the top
end guys but nothing else and the draft is 3 weeks away.

No idea what AFL.com or any of the youtubers have in mind. Hopefully within the next week, that is if they want to maximise their views/engagement.

Is Kemp at 13 realistic at all though? I would have assumed even if he made it out of the top ten, Hawthorn or Port would snap him up.

There is one scenario I've toyed with where Kemp makes it through to Geelong if Serong drops to Melbourne, Carlton take Weightman and Western Bulldogs go Bergman.

I still regard Kemp a top 10 pick, but over the coming weeks it will be interesting to get a clearer feel for where he lands.

Hey, Knightmare. Bit of a weird one for you. Was wondering if you could do the following as I think it would be interesting for us who don't follow the draft as closely as you.

1) Can you give me your top 10 on the players who will make an Impact in the AFL next year?
2) A top 10 for who will be there best players in 5 years
3) A top 10 on raw talent alone

thanks! Love your work

*Quickly put together but something like, excluding mature agers

1)
Rowell
Anderson
Green
Flanders
Young
Gould
Serong
Stephens
Robertson
Mahony

2) *this will be roughly my final top 10 power rankings. Serong/Stephens I'm still toying with having in there.
Rowell
Anderson
Green
Flanders
Kemp
McAsey
Jackson
Robertson
Young
Ash

3)
Anderson
Green
Rowell
Flanders
Kemp
McAsey
Jackson
Henry
Gould
Ash

 

[mustang]

KM with Kysaiah Pickett does he play like Cyril Rioli.

 

[Davo-27]

KM with Kysaiah Pickett does he play like Cyril Rioli.

he plays like Byron Pickett but smaller

 

[Knightmare]

KM with Kysaiah Pickett does he play like Cyril Rioli.

Smaller than Cyril.

Pickett is something like the Irving Mosquito equivalent in this draft.

Pickett reminds me most of Tipungwuti stylistically though without the same production.

 

[andleanback]

Depends how high you believe he should be rated. Some have Pickett in the second round and I don't think that's unrealistic because he brings the pressure, is high impact per possession and makes each disposal count. For me that's too high with Pickett with his lean production more suitable for selection in my view late/rookie. But he's one in the right range I feel is appropriate for selection. Particularly with smalls rarely improving all that much once in the system relatively.



No idea what AFL.com or any of the youtubers have in mind. Hopefully within the next week, that is if they want to maximise their views/engagement.



There is one scenario I've toyed with where Kemp makes it through to Geelong if Serong drops to Melbourne, Carlton take Weightman and Western Bulldogs go Bergman.

I still regard Kemp a top 10 pick, but over the coming weeks it will be interesting to get a clearer feel for where he lands.



*Quickly put together but something like, excluding mature agers

1)
Rowell
Anderson
Green
Flanders
Young
Gould
Serong
Stephens
Robertson
Mahony

2) *this will be roughly my final top 10 power rankings. Serong/Stephens I'm still toying with having in there.
Rowell
Anderson
Green
Flanders
Kemp
McAsey
Jackson
Robertson
Young
Ash

3)
Anderson
Green
Rowell
Flanders
Kemp
McAsey
Jackson
Henry
Gould
Ash

You don’t have Elijah Taylor top 10 for raw talent?

 

[Platten44]

No. You can’t trade picks once a player has been bid on.

On tonight’s AFL.com draft video Cal Twomey says it can be done. A club has 4 minutes and would have to move quick.

 

[Knightmare]

You don’t have Elijah Taylor top 10 for raw talent?

Huge talent, but as per those rankings not quite top 10. Top 20 definitely. From WA Sharp is another I'd argue is a better talent.

Taylor has that great instinctive game where he just has 'it.' Ground level, aerially, ball control, skills, speed/agility/leap.

What most won't add into that calculation is ball winning capabilities. For me it's not just a flash calculation. There is more to talent than just that.

 

[Obeanie1]

IF Martin was desperate to leave, he would have asked to be traded to Victoria. There were many clubs interested and someone would have paid a first round pick that GCS wanted.

He asked for Carlton, which meant the Blues had to come up with the goods. Blues didn’t.... here we are.

Avoided the question. Has any club redrafted a player in the PSD after asking to be traded two years in a row? Or ever?

Where is here? Martin about to enter the PSD and GC get nothing.

Martin did his time at GC and they as a club have failed to build a club he is interested in worling for. They dont own him.

Anyway will move this discussion to the Martin thread and not derail this one.