Prediction - Gold Coast Suns will fold by end of 2022 season.

[Choppers]

The Suns get bigger crowds in the Gold Coast then the Giants do in Sydney, despite winning far less. Neither team should be folded.

To be fair, with the GC being a very nice tourist destination, especially during the winter months, a lot of our attendances are boosted by the visiting teams' members, here for the weekend, as well as the ex-Victorian retirees etc. who are now living here, but continue to support the visiting team. I have no problem with anyone supporting their original team, but nothing gets under my craw more, than hearing about GC Members showing their membership lanyard, going into the Members bar, signing in their opposition friends, while wearing the oppositions kit...

 

[mightymouse75]

Wouldn’t say they are vital, the game was strong before they were around

Australian league. Not Victorian league

 

[Blackas87]

Australian league. Not Victorian league

Yeah, Sydney Swans, Brisbane Lions, West Coast Eagles, Fremantle Dockers, Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide were all in the Australian Football League before Gold Coast and GWS.

I’m not sure why you think those clubs are vital?

 

[mightymouse75]

Yeah, Sydney Swans, Brisbane Lions, West Coast Eagles, Fremantle Dockers, Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide were all in the Australian Football League before Gold Coast and GWS.

I’m not sure why you think those clubs are vital?

-2 teams in each state means afl is played once a week in each state.
-There is 1 game on t.v. for a home team to be on t.v. for each state.
-There are 2 derby blockbusters a year for each state.
-Nsw & qld are both being turned from rugby. Participation is growing exponentially. With nrl in a much worse position than afl because of covid 19 it would be crazy to pull back now.

There is much room to grow compared with a small vic team. And the only way to grow is time & exposure. You remove suns & you have less Qlders switching on the t.v.
They will not feel connected to a.f.l.

 

[Blackas87]

-2 teams in each state means afl is played once a week in each state.
-There is 1 game on t.v. for a home team to be on t.v. for each state.
-There are 2 derby blockbusters a year for each state.
-Nsw & qld are both being turned from rugby. Participation is growing exponentially. With nrl in a much worse position than afl because of covid 19 it would be crazy to pull back now.

There is much room to grow compared with a small vic team. And the only way to grow is time & exposure. You remove suns & you have less Qlders switching on the t.v.
They will not feel connected to a.f.l.

So it won’t be an Australian football league until Tasmania has 2 teams in the competition?

You said those clubs are vital to the competition, The competition was strong before they were around. Would not say they are vital.

Also not sure what this has to do with the NRL, it’s a great competition and let’s hope it continues strong for many years to come.

As for TV viewers though, compare Qld and WA

Perth 8.4 million viewers
Average 95000 per game
Largest audience 235000 West Coast v Fremantle
West Coast average 143000
Fremantle Average 116000
Non WA games Average 68000


Brisbane 2.59 million viewers
Average 28000 per game
Largest audience 74000 Richmond v Brisbane
Brisbane Lions average 43000
Gold Coast Suns average 28000
Non Qld games average 23000

The Boncos average 173000

It’s likely more people from Perth watch the Lions play than people from Brisbane, 2 blockbusters a year in Qld, the largest tv audience was 74000 for Brisbane vs Richmond, that’s barely over Perth’s average of 68000 for non WA games. I lived on the Gold Coast 2017 and AFL is irrelevant to them.

Im all for clubs being in these places, nothing against it, but they aren’t vital to competition, and people have rocks in there heads if they think AFL is going to take over rugby in these places, I’m not even sure why people think it’s even important, why can’t we have a great Australian Rules competition and a great Rugby League Comp co-existing?

 

[BringBackTorps]

The Age C. Wilson 9.4

"The AFL & Ch.7 look set to reinforce...a potential 2-year extension of the game's media rights...(in) a new marginally reduced contract that would run until 2024".

AFL, Seven working to extend broadcast deal

AFL, Seven and Fox Sports explore a marginally reduced contract that would run until 2024.

www.theage.com.au

An historic triumph for the Australian game.

 

[mightymouse75]

So it won’t be an Australian football league until Tasmania has 2 teams in the competition?

You said those clubs are vital to the competition, The competition was strong before they were around. Would not say they are vital.

Also not sure what this has to do with the NRL, it’s a great competition and let’s hope it continues strong for many years to come.

As for TV viewers though, compare Qld and WA

Perth 8.4 million viewers
Average 95000 per game
Largest audience 235000 West Coast v Fremantle
West Coast average 143000
Fremantle Average 116000
Non WA games Average 68000


Brisbane 2.59 million viewers
Average 28000 per game
Largest audience 74000 Richmond v Brisbane
Brisbane Lions average 43000
Gold Coast Suns average 28000
Non Qld games average 23000

The Boncos average 173000

It’s likely more people from Perth watch the Lions play than people from Brisbane, 2 blockbusters a year in Qld, the largest tv audience was 74000 for Brisbane vs Richmond, that’s barely over Perth’s average of 68000 for non WA games. I lived on the Gold Coast 2017 and AFL is irrelevant to them.

Im all for clubs being in these places, nothing against it, but they aren’t vital to competition, and people have rocks in there heads if they think AFL is going to take over rugby in these places, I’m not even sure why people think it’s even important, why can’t we have a great Australian Rules competition and a great Rugby League Comp co-existing?

Vital for growing & improving the game.

 

[Blackas87]

Vital for growing & improving the game.

They may be vital to growing the game, but the game will remain strong if they weren’t around.

 

[Sunstar]

They may be vital to growing the game, but the game will remain strong if they weren’t around.

They will be around if they can keep producing kids like this

 

[Blackas87]

They will be around if they can keep producing kids like this

Of course they’ll be around, never said they won’t

 

[speedpeck23]

Yeah, Sydney Swans, Brisbane Lions, West Coast Eagles, Fremantle Dockers, Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide were all in the Australian Football League before Gold Coast and GWS.

I’m not sure why you think those clubs are vital?

I'm sure you can work it out if you think about it for long enough.

 

[Blackas87]

I'm sure you can work it out if you think about it for long enough.

Thought about it. Can’t see the strength of Aussie rules football disappearing in Victoria, SA and WA without a team on the Gold Coast.

The game would be strong with or without GC and GWS

 

[speedpeck23]

I think you need more time.....

 

[Blackas87]

I think you need more time.....

Nope, the game was strong before them, and it would of been strong without them.

obviously it’s a bit hard for you to justify why they are “vital”, which is why you can only say “think about it” “you need more time”.

 

[speedpeck23]

Nope, the game was strong before them, and it would of been strong without them.

obviously it’s a bit hard for you to justify why they are “vital”, which is why you can only say “think about it” “you need more time”.

I know it's frustrating but you have to understand everything is a process not a fixed entity. You have to keep moving forward/growing. If you stand still you go backwards or even die.

It's a bit like Alistair Clarkson's address to the Hawks before the 2008 Grand Final. Chillingly he likened the all-conquering Cats to a Shark with their foreboding presence and their characteristic non stop forward movement of the ball. Sharks have to move forward or they die. The Hawks only had one shot at it....the Clarkson Cluster ....the Cats slowed and then finally stopped.....the rest is history....and so is the Clarkson Cluster and every other game plan ends the same way. The Tigers are Top of the Pops at the moment but somebody will supersede that....it may even be the Tigers themselves.
The lesson is you have to keep moving forward....you can't rest on your laurels...you must keep changing and developing or you get found out.

The history of footy..VFA VFL AFL is littered with change...you have to be progressive, inclusive, expansive. Thank God the VFL bought land out at Waverley in 1959 .... the equity in that is now in Marvel Stadium ....who would have thought the AFL would need to borrow against it but wow ,how things change. Luckily the VFL invested for the future of the game. Collingwood is now a bigger name because the competition is bigger. West Coast would not be so strong if it wasn't for the rest of the competition. The clubs are inter-dependent not independent. And they have to continue to change and develop otherwise they become irrelevant and die.

Of course you must be measured in moving forward. The decision to bring a second team into Queensland was made by the AFL Commission in 2001.
The AFL is in collaboration with many parts of the community in relation to all these expansion clubs. The AFL depends on them and they depend on the AFL.

Its a much bigger and more complex game than it appears. Same with everything.

 

[Blackas87]

I know it's frustrating but you have to understand everything is a process not a fixed entity. You have to keep moving forward/growing. If you stand still you go backwards or even die.

It's a bit like Alistair Clarkson's address to the Hawks before the 2008 Grand Final. Chillingly he likened the all-conquering Cats to a Shark with their foreboding presence and their characteristic non stop forward movement of the ball. Sharks have to move forward or they die. The Hawks only had one shot at it....the Clarkson Cluster ....the Cats slowed and then finally stopped.....the rest is history....and so is the Clarkson Cluster and every other game plan ends the same way. The Tigers are Top of the Pops at the moment but somebody will supersede that....it may even be the Tigers themselves.
The lesson is you have to keep moving forward....you can't rest on your laurels...you must keep changing and developing or you get found out.

The history of footy..VFA VFL AFL is littered with change...you have to be progressive, inclusive, expansive. Thank God the VFL bought land out at Waverley in 1959 .... the equity in that is now in Marvel Stadium ....who would have thought the AFL would need to borrow against it but wow ,how things change. Luckily the VFL invested for the future of the game. Collingwood is now a bigger name because the competition is bigger. West Coast would not be so strong if it wasn't for the rest of the competition. The clubs are inter-dependent not independent. And they have to continue to change and develop otherwise they become irrelevant and die.

Of course you must be measured in moving forward. The decision to bring a second team into Queensland was made by the AFL Commission in 2001.
The AFL is in collaboration with many parts of the community in relation to all these expansion clubs. The AFL depends on them and they depend on the AFL.

Its a much bigger and more complex game than it appears. Same with everything.

This is an answer similar to Eddie McGuire’s answer to “will Collingwood give refunds if members ask?” He rambles on about a kid wearing an Essendon jumper. Never actually says they will give a refund. Likewise Alister Clarkson’s 2008 Grand Final speech doesn’t explain why GWS and GC are vital to the competition.

it’s not complex at all as you think, it’s simple. Australian Rules Footballs huge popularity in Victoria, WA, SA and Tasmania will remain without new teams in Qld and NSW, and the strong competition will continue. That simple.

Just because the AFL decided to add a 2nd team in Qld back in 2001 does not mean it was vital for the already strong competition.

For an example let’s look at Gaelic Football in Ireland which is an amateur sport. In 2018 it became the most popular sport in Ireland over taking the professional sport of soccer and ahead of professional sport Rugby. https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.joe.ie/amp/sport/gaa-most-popular-652397

Has the GAA made a bad decision not to expand into Scotland? By not deciding in 2001 to put a team in Glasgow and another in Edinburgh put at risk their competition? Was that a vital mistake?

Has the GAA by remaining amateur, and players leaving to play professional sports such as Australian football made their game less popular? Gaelic football remains Ireland’s strongest sport.

Back in Australia the AFL has huge revenue, one of the largest in the world, Ranked 21st out of all sporting leagues. The top 20 leagues all come from countries with double the population of Australia except the La Liga in Spain which has a population of 47 million, just under double of Australia’s 25 million. Considering 88% of the TV ratings come from Vic, SA, WA and Tas (roughly half the population) I’d say the AFL is very strong in those 4 states. The AFL with that huge revenue gives back to the community and funds grass roots football across the entire country which other leagues around the world don’t.

The AFL have an ideology of being the number one sport in every part of the country, and want the sport to take over the world. They expand into Qld and NSW because they want to, not because its vital. They get into the minds of everyday football fans thinking we need to go to war with the NRL and take there market share. It’s not necessarily.

Gaelic football is booming in Ireland without moving into foreign territories.
If AFL doesn’t take off on the Gold Coast is our competition doomed and gloomed?

 

[speedpeck23]

It's about change, its about inclusion. Let's see how the Sun's are going in 2022. All the best.

 

[Blackas87]

It's about change, its about inclusion. Let's see how the Sun's are going in 2022. All the best.

Yes I’ve never said they shouldn’t be in the competition. Happy to include everyone, Tasmania, NT, Canberra as well as GC and GWS.

all I am saying is GWS and GC aren’t vital.

 

[Father Jack]

If you look at the direction of the AFL, you will see that the comp would lose teams out of Victoria before they'd be wanting GWS and the GC to fold. And on that basis I would expect that out of the clubs on struggle street, it will be the GC and GWS who will be sandbagged by the AFL.

 

[Toump Ass]

It's a bit like Alistair Clarkson's address to the Hawks before the 2008 Grand Final. Chillingly he likened the all-conquering Cats to a Shark with their foreboding presence and their characteristic non stop forward movement of the ball. Sharks have to move forward or they die. The Hawks only had one shot at it....the Clarkson Cluster ....the Cats slowed and then finally stopped.....the rest is history....and so is the Clarkson Cluster and every other game plan ends the same way. The Tigers are Top of the Pops at the moment but somebody will supersede that....it may even be the Tigers themselves.

The lesson is

The lesson is Hawthorn is ****ing unreal and talking about how great they are never gets boring.

 

[Kappa]

Nope, the game was strong before them, and it would of been strong without them.

obviously it’s a bit hard for you to justify why they are “vital”, which is why you can only say “think about it” “you need more time”.

If the AFL want to dominate the Australian sporting landscape, then 2 teams in NSW and QLD is vital for that going forward over the next few decades.

 

[Ando727]

Yes I thought the Red and Blue draft cheat club should be put in the category of clubs to fold or merge.
Got a bad bad feeling 4 Victorian clubs with be forged into a merger and if my club is forced to merge hopefully it’s not with the Red and Blue draft cheats as it wouldn’t be a merger it would be a takeover as these cheats would want everything from the jumper, the committee and ground

Just for that, we're going to merge your asses. And yes, we'll be taking everything.

 

[Blackas87]

If the AFL want to dominate the Australian sporting landscape, then 2 teams in NSW and QLD is vital for that going forward over the next few decades.

So you’re saying its not vital to the competition.
Just their ideology?

 

[MVille Swan]

It's going to be very hard for the AFL to say to potential broadcasters, advertisers, investors now, or even ten, twenty years down the track
when asked why there is only one team in NSW and Queensland (should they do away with the Suns and Giants), "well, we tried to
expand the market for footy in NSW and Queensland by starting new teams there but it just didn't work out and we shut them down. So
yes, we don't have much interest in our code or league from 40% of the population of Australia. We've given up on them and ever growing
the game in the northern states". "We're really big in the southern states" is not going to cut it.

 

[Blackas87]

It's going to be very hard for the AFL to say to potential broadcasters, advertisers, investors now, or even ten, twenty years down the track
when asked why there is only one team in NSW and Queensland (should they do away with the Suns and Giants), "well, we tried to
expand the market for footy in NSW and Queensland by starting new teams there but it just didn't work out and we shut them down. So
yes, we don't have much interest in our code or league from 40% of the population of Australia. We've given up on them and ever growing
the game in the northern states". "We're really big in the southern states" is not going to cut it.

You only have to realise the tv rating numbers of each city to realise where advertisers should put themoney, and with half the country only getting big tv numbers the broadcasters still pay huge for the rights.

This is how many viewers watch AFL in each city:
Melbourne 20.08 million
Perth 8.4 million
Adelaide 8.28 million
Sydney 2.8 million
Brisbane 2.59 million

Let’s take a closer look at a couple of cities:

Adelaide:
Average per game: 92000
Largest audience: Adelaide v Port 187000
Crows average: 133000
Power average: 105000
Non SA games average: 70000

Sydney:
Average per game: 31000
Largest audience: Sydney v GWS 87000
Swans average: 53000
GWS average: 32000
Non NSW average: 21000


The Swans after 37 years, 5 grand finals, 2 premierships only averaged 53000 viewers in Sydney (Australia’s largest city) last year, in comparison to the Crows 133000 and Port 105000 viewers in Adelaide. In Adelaide they average 70000 for non South Australian games, that’s more than what the Swans get in Sydney, it’s likely more people watch the Swans play from Adelaide than from Sydney.

Let’s look at the NRL figures of Sydney.
They average an audience of 186000 for Non NSW games.

The largest AFL game in Sydney was 87000 for the Swans vs GWS, the Sydney derby. It’s likely Nth Queensland cowboys vs New Zealand warriors got more than double that audience with a figure close to 186000, after 37 years The Swans largest audience doesn’t even come close to an NRL game that doesn’t even have a team in the city.

It’s quite simple if a company wanted to bring their brand to Australia and had $3 million to spend, you spend $1.5 million on the AFL getting your brand to Victoria, SA and WA, you spend $1.5 million on the NRL to get your brand into the NSW and Queensland markets, like many sponsors do.
Is a brand really going to turn around not bring them to Australia because a sporting league doesn’t cover the whole country?

The AFL is very strong in the southern states and that will continue for many years to come, just like the Rugby league will continue in the Northern States

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