Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

www.bigfooty.com

Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

www.bigfooty.com

Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

www.bigfooty.com

Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[blackcat]

Blackcat is in the House. Not seen him since ASADA. Alleluia. Prodigal Sun (sic). Alpenglow.

I think I know queensberryrules, do we NR RussellEbertHandball

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I think I know queensberryrules, do we NR RussellEbertHandball

I don't know queensberryrules. Or are you asking me something else bc?

 

[blackcat]

I don't know queensberryrules. Or are you asking me something else bc?

I was thinking our Adelaide homie who we were supposed to catch up w

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I was thinking our Adelaide homie who we were supposed to catch up w

I think that was questionable (port supporter) who discovered the Hamish McLachlan / Romping Wins editing his own wiki page.

 

[queensberryrules]

I was thinking our Adelaide homie who we were supposed to catch up w

I am another. A long time observer, little engaged, enjoy eccentricities.

 

[kirky]

Feel like this back and forth over case fatality rates is meant to deliberately confuse and muddle the debate over the seriousness of this. However, you cannot really dispute death tolls (unless you're one of those...).

Top 10 countries for COVID-19 deaths per million (minimum 1 million population) - current as of 20 May:


Deaths per million - COVID-19:

Belgium - 790
Spain - 594
Italy - 532
UK - 521
France - 429
Sweden - 371
Netherlands - 334
Ireland - 317
USA - 283
Switzerland - 219

Source - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Deaths per million - suicide:

Belgium - 200
Spain - 87
Italy - 82
UK - 89
France - 177
Sweden - 148
Netherlands - 126
Ireland - 85
USA - 130
Switzerland - 107

Source - https://www.who.int/gho/mental_health/suicide_rates_crude/en/


Deaths per million - road traffic accidents:

Belgium - 58
Spain - 41
Italy - 56
UK - 31
France - 55
Sweden - 28
Netherlands - 38
Ireland - 41
USA - 124
Switzerland - 27

Source - http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/road_safety/road_traffic_deaths2/atlas.html


Deaths per million - influenza:

Belgium - 242
Spain - 102
Italy - 82
UK - 230
France - 141
Sweden - 156
Netherlands - 146
Ireland - 159
USA - 149
Switzerland - 102

Source - https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/influenza-pneumonia/by-country/


Knock yourself out 'just a flu' people.

Yep, pretty sure you don’t need a lockdown with all those other deaths. The death rate would have been thru the roof without the lockdowns. This is a very contagious disease.

And just for comparison-

How do SARS and MERS compare with COVID-19?

Three coronaviruses can cause severe respiratory illness in people. One causes COVID-19, and the other two cause SARS and MERS. Learn how they differ here.

www.medicalnewstoday.com

 

[Clems Knee]

If the denominator is not accurate
If the NUMBER of INFECTED individuals is not accurate, it throws everything askew, one needs to know an accurate infection rate.

ISPI - Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale

ISPI è l'unico istituto italiano che si occupa di analisi geopolitica e geoeconomica a livello internazionale con attività di ricerca e pubblicazioni.

www.ispionline.it

This article from 2 weeks ago and another from the same site delves into the infection rates.
They have arrived at a figure for mortality rate based on demographic structure and evidence that the virus hasn’t varied much in it’s killing ability across the world. About 0.75% for the UK and 0.9% for Italy, because of their older population. (I’m quoting figures from memory so may be a bit out.)

From the number of reported deaths and number of reported infections they can then estimate the real proportion of infection in that country.
I used their maths earlier on the Politics thread to estimate the number of unidentified individuals with the disease in Australia - under 500 before the Victorian testing blitz.
So far their assumptions and calculations have stood up quite well.
It would be good if one of the data crunching sites took this on board.

 

[queensberryrules]

Bar fights increasing 2-fold every 6 days.

 

[luthor]

ISPI - Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale

ISPI è l'unico istituto italiano che si occupa di analisi geopolitica e geoeconomica a livello internazionale con attività di ricerca e pubblicazioni.

www.ispionline.it

This article from 2 weeks ago and another from the same site delves into the infection rates.

The last two paragraphs are instructive

"The novel coronavirus pandemic has hit the world hard, with the official tally of victims having just passed the 250,000 mark globally. More than 200,000 of these official fatalities occurred in just 12 countries, pictured above. And yet, even in those countries, the diffusion ("prevalence") of the COVID-19 disease remains quite low, and certainly far away from the share needed for herd immunity (between 70% and 80%). In fact, ISPI estimates that the plausible diffusion in the 12 countries most affected by the virus never manages to go above 7%, and in almost all instances still remains below the 5% threshold. Three big EU countries (Italy, UK, France, and Spain) see their plausible virus prevalence at between 3% and 4%, while Germany's plausible prevalence is even lower, at below 1%.

This finding spells trouble for the post-lockdown phase. It means that the virus has been able to wreak havoc even infecting just a small share of the total population, and that its potential for deadliness is still almost totally intact compared to last February-March. The main role for limiting the incidence and deadliness of COVID-19 is not going to be played by herd immunity, but by extensive testing, tracing, and treatment of the disease."

Herd immunity is simply unachievable, unless of course you are willing to pay the price of deaths that are orders of magnitude higher than what has already been seen.

 

[blackcat]

ISPI - Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale

ISPI è l'unico istituto italiano che si occupa di analisi geopolitica e geoeconomica a livello internazionale con attività di ricerca e pubblicazioni.

www.ispionline.it

This article from 2 weeks ago and another from the same site delves into the infection rates.
They have arrived at a figure for mortality rate based on demographic structure and evidence that the virus hasn’t varied much in it’s killing ability across the world. About 0.75% for the UK and 0.9% for Italy, because of their older population. (I’m quoting figures from memory so may be a bit out.)

From the number of reported deaths and number of reported infections they can then estimate the real proportion of infection in that country.
I used their maths earlier on the Politics thread to estimate the number of unidentified individuals with the disease in Australia - under 500 before the Victorian testing blitz.
So far their assumptions and calculations have stood up quite well.
It would be good if one of the data crunching sites took this on board.

it is also how deaths are assigned, and if the death certificates place covid19 as source in times pressed (in UK hospital for instance) subject to non-political influence and overt political influence, David Beckham and his family clapping for NHS with his family at six pm on the twelfth of May what the ferk is that ?

 

[blackcat]

we don't know this til it plays out over years, my empathy lies w those born between 1995-2004, that demi-generation will have L.I.V.E.S constrained

TheGermanator significant literature exists that it is VITALLY relevant/important regarding the time of age you enter adulthood and a workforce with a reasonably healthy economy

 

[blackcat]

luthor

Herd immunity is simply unachievable, unless of course you are willing to pay the price of deaths that are orders of magnitude higher than what has already been seen.

what are the ramifications for destroying the economy, good-faith query? How is Sweden's model fundamentally different from other Scandi states? Because as the article attests, they may not have got population antibody status achieved, but they are in much more rigorous preparation for Covid19 redux in 12 months

 

[Roby]

This finding spells trouble for the post-lockdown phase. It means that the virus has been able to wreak havoc even infecting just a small share of the total population, and that its potential for deadliness is still almost totally intact compared to last February-March. The main role for limiting the incidence and deadliness of COVID-19 is not going to be played by herd immunity, but by extensive testing, tracing, and treatment of the disease."

Herd immunity is simply unachievable, unless of course you are willing to pay the price of deaths that are orders of magnitude higher than what has already been seen.

I've said this numerous times, Herd Immunity is unachievable because people don't want to be infected. There is no price to pay. People aren't willing to put up their lives "for the greater good" if given the choice.

Look at Sweden and even Brazil to an extent. Choice given and people place their own personal restrictive measures.

Clear example of when a choice is given people will generally place their own lockdowns irrespective of authority.

 

[blackcat]

Yep, pretty sure you don’t need a lockdown with all those other deaths. The death rate would have been thru the roof without the lockdowns. This is a very contagious disease.

And just for comparison-

How do SARS and MERS compare with COVID-19?

Three coronaviruses can cause severe respiratory illness in people. One causes COVID-19, and the other two cause SARS and MERS. Learn how they differ here.

www.medicalnewstoday.com

but that is not like-to-like comparison ceteris paribus

It is conjecture with no hard evidence beyond Sweden (as normalised model) for States that did not have lockdown, the virus has not been lopping off youth, young adults, and children, but they have been yoked with the consequences. s**t I am sounding like Peter Hitchens

 

[blackcat]

.

Clear example of when a choice is given people will generally place their own lockdowns irrespective of authority.

It is not the binary implied in l.o.c.k.d.o.w.n

individuals mitigate risk, but hospitality industry chugs on in Sweden

 

[Roby]

luthor


what are the ramifications for destroying the economy, good-faith query? How is Sweden's model fundamentally different from other Scandi states? Because as the article attests, they may not have got population antibody status achieved, but they are in much more rigorous preparation for Covid19 redux in 12 months

Do you even understand what you're saying? Do you know what fundamentally means?

Yes. Fundamentally different. Read my previous post.

Sweden basic principle is a "soft" lockdown were people are given a choice on how to act on advice given by the government. As opposed to other Scandinavian countries that have followed suit with other nations, which have ENFORCED strict lockdown measures with PENALTIES in place.

Sweden last week became the deadliest place in the world.

This despite no major outbreak, no hugley dense areas of population and with plenty of time to prepare unlike other countries.

Not to mention they test at a rate of magnitudes less than similarly affected countries.

 

[HTT]

Do you even understand what you're saying? Do you know what fundamentally means?

Yes. Fundamentally different. Read my previous post.

Sweden basic principle is a "soft" lockdown were people are given a choice on how to act on advice given by the government. As opposed to other Scandinavian countries that have followed suit with other nations, which have ENFORCED strict lockdown measures with PENALTIES in place.

Sweden last week became the deadliest place in the world.

This despite no major outbreak, no hugley dense areas of population and with plenty of time to prepare unlike other countries.

Not to mention they test at a rate of magnitudes less than similarly affected countries.

View attachment 878859

Pretty amazing how there are two clear groups there - those who got onto it quickly and those who let it slide.

 

[blackcat]

How many advisor teams in the West have workshopped the (prior to decision six weeks back)
I) switch-on back
ii) potential for second-wave and the pressure to replay(deficit settings) this

 

[blackcat]

Do you even understand what you're saying? Do you know what fundamentally means?

Yes. Fundamentally different. Read my previous post.

Sweden basic principle is a "soft" lockdown were people are given a choice on how to act on advice given by the government. As opposed to other Scandinavian countries that have followed suit with other nations, which have ENFORCED strict lockdown measures with PENALTIES in place.

Sweden last week became the deadliest place in the world.

This despite no major outbreak, no hugley dense areas of population and with plenty of time to prepare unlike other countries.

Not to mention they test at a rate of magnitudes less than similarly affected countries.

View attachment 878859

It was rhetorical
(Poe's law)

A tighter demos allows the people to have a bloc-vigilance versus America's atomised individualism

 

[owen87]

just yesterday Belgium for ex said their numbers are all wrong and should be halved ......https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-18/why-belgium-has-a-high-number-of-coronavirus-deaths/12259032

That is definitely not what they said, re-read it.

"It's not a fair comparison because our counting system is much more comprehensive," he told Reuters last month.

"We take into account not only the hospital cases but also cases that occur in the community, for example, in the nursing homes."

For a more accurate comparison with other countries, Mr Van Gucht said the Belgian death rate should be divided by two.

 

[luthor]

That is definitely not what they said, re-read it.

So using Sir Les' logic, the more comprehensive and accurate the information is, the more "wrong" it is

 

[FlowersByIrene]

That is definitely not what they said, re-read it.

I heard that Belgium was automatically counting the eldery who died as coronavirus cases, wihout even testing them.

Weird.

 

[luthor]

I heard that Belgium was automatically counting the eldery who died as coronavirus cases, wihout even testing them.

Weird.

So what was your source for what you heard?

I heard once that there are reptilian aliens amongst us that are disguised as humans. I tend to treat that one with scepticism.

 

[Forward Press]

So what was your source for what you heard?

I heard once that there are reptilian aliens amongst us that are disguised as humans. I tend to treat that one with scepticism.

Don't care what you say, Queen Lizzie is Queen Lizard and her reptilian ancestry explains her longevity, cold-bloodedness and predilection to feast on the blood of younger royals.

 

[luthor]

Don't care what you say, Queen Lizzie is Queen Lizard and her reptilian ancestry explains her longevity, cold-bloodedness and predilection to feast on the blood of younger royals.

Yeah, that's what I heard too.

Even read it somewhere I think.

The evidence is compelling