Player Watch 2021 AFL National Draft - NOT FOR TRADE DISCUSSION

[Strapping Young Lad]

Let’s stick with a basic rule for this thread, that it’s for draft watch and discussion only.

It’s not for trade hypotheticals, who you think needs to be delisted or traded, how many games you think we will win, some other team will win, how many picks you want in the 1st round or discussion of current HFC players.

It’s about youngsters who are eligible for the draft in 2021.


Key dates to look out for:

• NAB AFL Draft Combine: TBC
• NAB AFL Draft: Wednesday November 24 - Thursday November 25
• NAB AFL Pre-season and Rookie Drafts: Friday November 26

 

[chopflop]

6:14

Yeh wow. That's v.good.
Callaghan ran 6:10 I think.

He will be a full-time mid on that kind of number.

 

[Alite]

We have these good, honest hardworking players in abundance, they are the base of a good team, but we are sorely lacking match winners. That’s what wins premierships. Look at Petracca, oliver, gawn and even fritsch. You need these players to elevate the team to premiership contenders. You can have a team focused style but you also need players who are capable of brilliance and can change the tide of a game

I take your point on Petracca and Gawn: both we’re brilliant in the 2021 finals. Gawn especially so. How good were his goals!! He seems a great bloke as well. Always talking up his teammates while self deprecating. Apparently in the 3rd Qtr Gawn encouraged Goodwin to keep Jackson in the ruck because Jackson was “on fire” …and we all know how that turned out.

I am not arguing against selecting a player that has the capacity to be brilliant…. bring on the brilliance I say….. but only if it is tempered with self-sacrifice in their role if it benefits the team.

In this I would again differ to the Hawks psychologist.

 

[H00t]

I take your point on Petracca and Gawn: both we’re brilliant in the 2021 finals. Gawn especially so. How good were his goals!! He seems a great bloke as well. Always talking up his teammates while self deprecating. Apparently in the 3rd Qtr Gawn encouraged Goodwin to keep Jackson in the ruck because Jackson was “on fire” …and we all know how that turned out.

I am not arguing against selecting a player that has the capacity to be brilliant…. bring on the brilliance I say….. but only if it is tempered with self-sacrifice in their role if it benefits the team.

In this I would again differ to the Hawks psychologist.

Self sacrifice is great. But with Jackson taking over from Gawn. They have two match winners in the ruck and can have whoever is running hot dominate. Something we lack is match winners.

You can build self sacrifice a lot more than you can match winning ability/ game changing ability. We should definitely look at adding those sorts of players if they are available in our pick range.

 

[MasterSamurai]

To my eyes talent isn't just about how far a player can jump, how fast they can run and so on..... İt's about football smarts and the want to turn a game when called upon!!
Hello Luke Hodge and Shaun Burgoyne

9

Shaun Burgoyne

Age

43

Ht

186cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.0

4star

K

9.9

4star

HB

8.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.8

5star

MG

162.7

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

5.6

2star

HB

4.4

3star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.6

4star

MG

162.7

3star

D

6.2

2star

K

3.2

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.2

2star

T

1.6

4star

!!
As good as any top liner mids in their time but sacrificed their personal gains to play as Backman to balance what was needed for their team at the time. So, a big 'NO' to just permanent inside midfielder but more /'YES ' to a adaptable mid who can play Frwd or back when needed.

 

[Alite]

Self sacrifice is great. But with Jackson taking over from Gawn. They have two match winners in the ruck and can have whoever is running hot dominate. Something we lack is match winners.

You can build self sacrifice a lot more than you can match winning ability/ game changing ability. We should definitely look at adding those sorts of players if they are available in our pick range.

I am not arguing against finding a match winner. Just that the match winner must be, at heart, selfless for the team.
Brilliance was lost from the Hawks when Buddy left for the Swans in 2013/14, yet we improved. He has been the most brilliant, game changing player the AFL has seen in the last 15 years. And our Pickup was a role player in the ruck in Ben McEvoy. And we improved as a team, with other role players… cup after cup.

I do not know which of the options on the table are the best choice. I did not see the Will Day‘s selection coming and maybe he was the psychologist choice over Kemp. … (We all know Day will be awesome but Kemp is looking pretty good as well).
But I hope the talked about “No D!ckheads” policy is the minimum standard (see DeGoey) and more rigorous and stringent quality guys will be those to pull on the brown and gold.

 

[chopflop]

Ned Long Draft Profile

central.rookieme.com

Would consider at pick 24.

Looks like an underage bully to me. One paced, average skills and limited scope. Is he a genuine mid or a CHF?

Read the profile. The 2km time of 6:05 is quite impressive for such a big lump. I wish they actually gave us some stoppage vision of the midfielders.

 

[burner1]

Outside of JHF, daicos, Darcy, Finn there’s large group of players rumoured to be in mix for top 5-7 - gibcus, Andrew, Rachele, Ward, Hobbs, Erasmus, Sinn, Johnston (and maybe a few more). Thats 8 players of which only 2 will be gone by our pick.

Who the heck knows what the clubs talent order is out of that group. But reckon will do okay. Ward, Hobbs, Rachele would be in some ways the 3 I hope we don’t get, with preference for Sinn, Erasmus, Andrew. But won’t be fussed if we get gibcus - super elite talls are hard to find.

 

[The Chad and I]

Ward - most proven and prolific.
Sinn - probably the most talented.
Rachele - the most attacking.
Erasmus - almost bottom age and prob most improvement in him vs the above players.

Ward is the conservative choice, but by no means less valuable.
Sinn is a punt on ability over form.
Rachele is the game-breaker we need more of in the team.
Erasmus is a play on character and untapped potential.

 

[sohsam]

Ward
Sinn
Johnson
Rachelle
Goater
Wilmot
Taylor

Need to find a way to get them all...

Not sure how many live picks we will have, probably 3 as it stands, then perhaps look to mid year draft.
From what I can see clubs move heaven and earth, re organise their whole draft over top 5 players.
I guess to get ahead of other clubs recruiters would have to identify talent that others would miss in say picks in 30s, 40s,
trade a higher pick for multiple picks later on, otherwise if do not know any better, just be patient and get quality over
a number of years.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Looks like an underage bully to me. One paced, average skills and limited scope. Is he a genuine mid or a CHF?

Read the profile. The 2km time of 6:05 is quite impressive for such a big lump. I wish they actually gave us some stoppage vision of the midfielders.

Looks like a boom or bust prospect for sure. Or winds up somewhere in the middle like a Kyle Langford. If we nailed down two smaller type mids (for example Ward and Butler) with our first two selections I wouldn't be unhappy taking a risk on a player like Long.

 

[Billyc]

We’re going to find it hard to take Andrew, Ward, Gibcus and Erasmus…. All 4 have had people on here say that we’re taking them.

which probably means we’re taking Hobbs.

This will at least ensure the annual Bigfooty narrative that we picked our first choice outside of the father/sons.

I can see a good case for all of Callaghan, Ward, Erasmus, Hobbs, Andrew, Rachelle and Sinn. Gibcus the only one I can’t get my head around. Looking forward it but the quality demonstrates how unfortunate it was that we couldn’t find buyers for some senior players. Really hope we can push our second pick into the top 20

 

[TigerTime88]

Most players improve their times in their draft year but this was his only March of last year

20m 3.16
Agility 8.15

That agility time puts him in the top 10 of this years crop for the National combine and an 83 running vertical jump puts him just outside the top 10. His lack of athleticism is massively exaggerated.

Josh Ward in comparison

20m 3.12
Agility 8.57
RVJ 69

3.16 is very slow.

Ward isn’t quick either.

 

[eDPS]

3.16 is very slow.

Ward isn’t quick either.

Sam Butler got 3.04 at the same testing and this year got sub 3.00 so every chance Hobbs would have improved on that time since March of 2020

 

[Davo-27]

Sam Banks is a good Tassie player, has played HBF recently, but is good in the midfield and wing too(my favourite games ive seen him in was in the midfield, kicked a ridiculous goal from the centre circle against Oakleigh once), heres an interview with him, another Hawk Supporter as well. (Banks, Ward, Sheldrick, Browne, Soligo all Hawk Supporting prospects)

 

[Millsie69]

I’m all-in on Sinn

All of the reports on this draft crop at the end of last year were that the consensus top 3 were Horne, Sinn and Rachele.

I’d be happy to take either of the latter two at pick 5, but we lack speed. Would love to have someone who can break lines.

 

[number23]

3.16 is very slow.

Ward isn’t quick either.

This 3:16 did OK though. A bit of heavy hitter apparently

 

[theiaofseed]

3.16 is very slow.

Ward isn’t quick either.

3.12 as a 17 year old without training and development isn't slow

 

[sohsam]

I’m all-in on Sinn

All of the reports on this draft crop at the end of last year were that the consensus top 3 were Horne, Sinn and Rachele.

I’d be happy to take either of the latter two at pick 5, but we lack speed. Would love to have someone who can break lines.

It is funny, a year in football seems long time, we currently have a player on our list, a year before draft supposed to be top 10, we even got him in rookie draft from memory. I wonder where Sinn is supposed to go, most here have him beyond pick 10.

 

[burner1]

What is the issue with picking Gibcus if we rate him clearly the best available? It’s not like we are overflowing with kpd prospects.

Most key talls take 4-5 years anyway and we would have got two of the best few available since 2018. In recent years KPD have arguably become more important than KPF. And not a small chance either DGB/Gibcus end up forwards.

Yes we need elite mids (and I’d love Sinn or Erasmus) but it’s a multi year rebuild. And we may get lucky with a Chesser/Draper/Knevitt type still available at our pick 21.

 

[Blackhawk42]

It is funny, a year in football seems long time, we currently have a player on our list, a year before draft supposed to be top 10, we even got him in rookie draft from memory. I wonder where Sinn is supposed to go, most here have him beyond pick 10.

This is a point that is being missed a lot when it comes to these Covid affected years.

Emerson Jeka was touted as a top 10 selection in his under 17 year then slipped to us in the rookie draft. He has played a handful of games for 2 goals and just signed a 12 month extension.

Sonsie is the major one who appears to have slipped during his under 18 year. He'll certainly go in the national draft and probably within the top 20, but the club that drafts him could be taking a gamble on his under 16 form vs under 18 form.


Also to clarify on Jeka, his talent is so obvious. Really hoping he grabs the opportunity in 2022. Will make life much easier when McEvoy and Gunston move on if Jeka, Lewis and Kosi are all best 22 players.

 

[Blackhawk42]

What is the issue with picking Gibcus if we rate him clearly the best available? It’s not like we are overflowing with kpd prospects.

Most key talls take 4-5 years anyway and we would have got two of the best few available since 2018. In recent years KPD have arguably become more important than KPF. And not a small chance either DGB/Gibcus end up forwards.

Yes we need elite mids (and I’d love Sinn or Erasmus) but it’s a multi year rebuild. And we may get lucky with a Chesser/Draper/Knevitt type still available at our pick 21.

If we had a more functional midfield with even 1 elite young talent on the rise i'd be more inclined to agree. However currently we are hoping that one of Nash, Maginness or Newcombe can suddenly take a 2019 Worpel like leap and look like the future of our engine room. We have a glaring deficiency and one of Callaghan (although he'll be gone by our pick), Ward or Hobbs could easily be the answer.

I understand long term rebuilds, but using our third consecutive first round selection on another defender is just spinning our wheels IMO.

The one thing i'm happy to be proven wrong on here is if Sam has his eye on moving somebody into the midfield who could be our elite young mid. Could Day or Scrimshaw suddenly become Fyfe or Bont with a move into the middle?

 

[theiaofseed]

What is the issue with picking Gibcus if we rate him clearly the best available? It’s not like we are overflowing with kpd prospects.

Most key talls take 4-5 years anyway and we would have got two of the best few available since 2018. In recent years KPD have arguably become more important than KPF. And not a small chance either DGB/Gibcus end up forwards.

Yes we need elite mids (and I’d love Sinn or Erasmus) but it’s a multi year rebuild. And we may get lucky with a Chesser/Draper/Knevitt type still available at our pick 21.

Sinn wont be a midfielder at AFL level

 

[Pessimistic]

Sorry to get slightly off in terms of list strategy, but the imminent retirees (age) and source of replacement in best 22:

McEvoy (32) : Reeves (23) or Lynch (23) one will replace Ceglar) - perhaps a little young as rucks?
Bruest (31) : Moore (22)
Sheils (30) : Nash (23) or Newcombe (21)
Gunston (30) : not apparent, Sicily (27) or Kosi (21) ?
Hartigan (30) : DGB (20) or a mature trade like Hartigan/Frawley/Lake

the next age line is 28 surely there’s 3 drafts to replace those guys?

I’m trying to demonstrate that there really is room to draft best available with each pick, even players which may need a couple of years to reach peak.
(As it may seem this post belongs in the list strategy discussion - but there is overlap)

If anything if Gunston occupies an identified list position, this might be the hardest to achieve. Gunston and Sicily have injury questions and Kosi is not an exact fit (although he is mobile and has some tricks)

 

[Roger Rogerson]

What is the issue with picking Gibcus if we rate him clearly the best available? It’s not like we are overflowing with kpd prospects.

Most key talls take 4-5 years anyway and we would have got two of the best few available since 2018. In recent years KPD have arguably become more important than KPF. And not a small chance either DGB/Gibcus end up forwards.

Yes we need elite mids (and I’d love Sinn or Erasmus) but it’s a multi year rebuild. And we may get lucky with a Chesser/Draper/Knevitt type still available at our pick 21.

If we take Gibcus I will back our recruiters in. It is a pretty clear blueprint that if you have two elite key defenders you are a finals side. My opinion is you can always find midfielders - quality talls are much much harder to find.

 

[Pessimistic]

Is it not ‘generational’ players which are hard to find? Not a particular position.
we took Hodge as a midfielder but he rarely gets selected in those positions whether in real or AA type teams. indeed he was CHB in Role as well as name in the 2008 flag