2022 Federal Election Watch

[Gralin]

Part 2 can be found here

2022 Federal Election Watch - Part 2 the count

Welcome to Part 2 of the Federal Election Watch Part 1 can be found here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2022-federal-election-watch.1306808/

www.bigfooty.com

 

[HirdsTheWord]

What matters is that your memory of what happened and why and what was said about it by economic commentators with an understanding of the RBA's legislated responsibilities is entirely false.

Philip Lowe has continually made the point that the RBA interest rate role is not tied to market issues in the housing market. This is what he said in September 2021:

"Finally, I would like to address the question of housing prices, as some analysts have suggested we might lift the cash rate to cool the property market. I want to be clear that this is not on our agenda. While it is true that higher interest rates would, all else equal, see lower housing prices, they would also mean fewer jobs and lower wages growth. This is a poor trade-off in the current circumstances.

That is not to say that there aren't public policy issues to be addressed here. On the financial side, the issue is the sustainability of trends in household borrowing. We are continuing to watch this closely, with the Council of Financial Regulators discussing possible regulatory steps if lending standards deteriorate or credit growth accelerates too much.

More broadly, society-wide concerns about the level of housing prices are not best addressed through increasing interest rates and curbs on lending. While monetary policy is contributing to higher housing prices at the moment, the way to address these concerns is through the structural factors that influence the value of the land upon which our dwellings are built. The factors include: the design of our taxation and social security systems; planning and zoning restrictions; the type of dwellings that are built; and the nature of our transportation networks. These are all obviously areas outside the domain of monetary policy and the central bank.

Our job is to achieve the inflation target and support the return to full employment in Australia. The package of policy measures we have put in place has us on a path to do that. Delta is delaying progress, but it is not expected to derail our resilient economy."

Delta, the Economy and Monetary Policy | Speeches

Speech delivered by Philip Lowe, Governor, to the Anika Foundation, Online

www.rba.gov.au

I can read their comments and their mandate mate.

The Fact is Australia's economy is inextricably linked to housing prices. Our Economy is so debt laden with housing debt is that is it impossible to manage the economy without also managing housing prices. Those who cant see that cant do not know anything about our economy.

The RBA's mandate also is to ensure "economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people" No they do not have total control over housing prices. But they have a big say with interest rates, they have this lever to use and they decided to leave rates at a totally unsustainable level for a totally inappropriate amount of time. The RBA did not even fully achieve what they wanted by keeping them that low. Real Wage growth is almost non existent.

If you think having one of the most debt laden economy's on planet about to enter a drastic interest rate hike is economic prosperity and in the general welfare of Australia's citizens than good for you, but you need your head read.

The Fact is the RBA & The Liberal Government have played a huge part in this mess which is evident for all. So trying to worm them out of it is not doing much good for them.

This isn't even just a COVID thing. Under the Liberal Government and Phillip Lowe's watch there has not been real wage growth in 10 years. yet the national debt + housing debt as year on year hit record highs without any type of management. They have allowed this country to create a powder keg which has a real risk of going off if we do not get inflation under control quickly.

 

[Carn The Berries]

I can read their comments and their mandate mate.

The Fact is Australia's economy is inextricably linked to housing prices. Our Economy is so debt laden with housing debt is that is it impossible to manage the economy without also managing housing prices. Those who cant see that cant do not know anything about our economy.

The RBA's mandate also is to ensure "economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people" No they do not have total control over housing prices. But they have a big say with interest rates, they have this lever to use and they decided to leave rates at a totally unsustainable level for a totally inappropriate amount of time. The RBA did not even fully achieve what they wanted by keeping them that low. Real Wage growth is almost non existent.

If you think having one of the most debt laden economy's on planet about to enter a drastic interest rate hike is economic prosperity and in the general welfare of Australia's citizens than good for you, but you need your head read.

The Fact is the RBA & The Liberal Government have played a huge part in this mess which is evident for all. So trying to worm them out of it is not doing much good for them.

This isn't even just a COVID thing. Under the Liberal Government and Phillip Lowe's watch there has not been real wage growth in 10 years. yet the national debt + housing debt as year on year hit record highs.

Are you able to point to a country anywhere in the world that tightened monetary policy during 2020? It would simply have been economic suicide.

Or do you know more about how to navigate through an impending economic crisis better than every fiscal manager in the world?

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Are you able to point to a country anywhere in the world that tightened monetary policy during 2020? It would simply have been economic suicide.

Or do you know more about how to navigate through an impending economic crisis better than every fiscal manager in the world?

What in the blue hell do you think its going to happen in the next 6 months? We will be in a global recession by November. What are your fiscal managers saying now?

By not doing anything in 2020 and just spending loosely we have created a massive problem in 2022 and beyond by allowing, no encouraging people to go into stupid amounts of debt.

if you cant see in hindsight that by not acting sooner was a bad thing, than i don't know what to tell you. I hope your mortgage is under control i guess.

 

[Carn The Berries]

What in the blue hell do you think its going to happen in the next 6 months? We will be in a global recession by November. What are your fiscal managers saying now?

By not doing anything in 2020 and just spending loosely we have created a massive problem in 2022 and beyond.

if you cant see in hindsight that by not acting sooner was a bad thing, than i don't know what to tell you. I hope your mortgage is under control i guess.

Just for the avoidance of any doubt. Your position is that the Reserve Bank of Australia should have increased interest rates at the beginning of 2020, and held that increased rate (or possibly increase further) through all of 2020 and 2021?

Should the RBA have acted earlier (say the second half of last year) to try and get out in front of a potential spike in inflation? Perhaps, that is at least an arguable position. But to suggest that monetary policy should have been tightened during early 2020, and not relaxed in response to the early stages of the pandemic is crazy. Yes, there will be people doing it tough now to manage their mortgage. But those struggles would have been magnitudes worse if rates began to increase while people were being laid off from their jobs and entire segments of the economy were being shut down.

I do have my mortgage under control and will be able to absorb the rise in interest payments. Whether people have properly planned for something occuring that was inevitable (rates rising) is a different conversation.

 

[nut]

boomers vs millenials has been a go to for what 5-10 years now?

Here is some more boomer policy

PM’s new sweetener for almost 1m Aussies — news.com.au

The Government is spruiking a new policy that could see 900,000 Australians be better off, some by up to $1300 a year.

apple.news

 

[Pessimistic]

Here is some more boomer policy

PM’s new sweetener for almost 1m Aussies — news.com.au

The Government is spruiking a new policy that could see 900,000 Australians be better off, some by up to $1300 a year.

apple.news

Those who’ll retire in 2 years or later time not so impressed. Also isn’t it another booby trap for the ALP govt?

 

[nut]

Those who’ll retire in 2 years or later time not so impressed. Also isn’t it another booby trap for the ALP govt?

Another wedge policy ….

 

[Magruder]

By that argument you would have to claim donald trump was well qualified to be president simply cos he got the job.

ps. he wasnt.

I will repeat. her degree was a major in religious studies. Thats her qualification.

What arrant nonsense.

By your measure some of the towering figures of the 20th century are unqualified to sit in parliament.
Keating wasn’t qualified to be PM and Aneurin Bevan wasn’t qualified to set up the NHS.
By your measure Trump was qualified because he had a testamur from Wharton.

 

[madmug]

By that argument you would have to claim donald trump was well qualified to be president simply cos he got the job.

ps. he wasnt.

I will repeat. her degree was a major in religious studies. Thats her qualification.

Qualified to be a politician? WTF does that mean? Once upon a time people did politics with a view to bettering their community & the nation. The place is now full of career types who just play politics, hardly any policy. Many of whom also beat the populist drum. Divisive, wedge politics is all they achieve. Scumo being prime in this.

Having a degree in anything means she can research & present a body of work which gives here a level of education. It indicates her ability to analyse information & present findings coherently.

Certainly different to FWITS like Craig Kelly & Scumo. Yet they can stand for office too. Thats democracy. One just hopes enough people can see through the BS thrown at them. A push to the Teal revolution might shake the majors up & improve Governance in this place.

The 'moderate' libs are under pressure. They've done nothing to reign in religious conservative populist rubbish that sees Scumo's corrupting behaviour dominate the LNP. So FKEM.

One hopes for a decent outcome.

 

[NSWCROW]

7,343 dead

 

[Magruder]

7,343 dead

What’s that, about 60 odd a day so far this year?

 

[NSWCROW]

What’s that, about 60 odd a day so far this year?

Something like that.

Not that the MSM give a shit, there's an election to win for the libs !

 

[Gralin]

Qualified to be a politician? WTF does that mean? Once upon a time people did politics with a view to bettering their community & the nation. The place is now full of career types who just play politics, hardly any policy. Many of whom also beat the populist drum. Divisive, wedge politics is all they achieve. Scumo being prime in this.

Having a degree in anything means she can research & present a body of work which gives here a level of education. It indicates her ability to analyse information & present findings coherently.

Certainly different to FWITS like Craig Kelly & Scumo. Yet they can stand for office too. Thats democracy. One just hopes enough people can see through the BS thrown at them. A push to the Teal revolution might shake the majors up & improve Governance in this place.

The 'moderate' libs are under pressure. They've done nothing to reign in religious conservative populist rubbish that sees Scumo's corrupting behaviour dominate the LNP. So FKEM.

One hopes for a decent outcome.

Morrison has a University degree, so does Matt Canavan, having a degree means they went to uni, it doesn't mean they can research and analayse info correctly or even that they have the knowledge in the field they are doing that work

Doing a degree in economics doesn't make you a climate scientist, I mean look at cosplay Canavan.......

Kelly is a shonky salesman, the fact he didn't go to university has nothing to do with how he acts, we've got other politicians that didn't go to university that don't behave like Kelly

This idea that a university degree makes someone better is about as good as the idea that it qualifies someone to be a politician

 

[Forward Press]

Not biased at all, right?

 

[Forward Press]

Morrison has a University degree, so does Matt Canavan, having a degree means they went to uni, it doesn't mean they can research and analayse info correctly or even that they have the knowledge in the field they are doing that work

Doing a degree in economics doesn't make you a climate scientist, I mean look at cosplay Canavan.......

Kelly is a shonky salesman, the fact he didn't go to university has nothing to do with how he acts, we've got other politicians that didn't go to university that don't behave like Kelly

This idea that a university degree makes someone better is about as good as the idea that it qualifies someone to be a politician

Tony Abbott, widely regarded as one of the worst Prime Ministers in recent times, was a Rhodes scholar.

Pau Keating, widely regarded as one of the finest Treasurers in recent times, did not have a degree in economics.

 

[Gough]

Morrison has a University degree, so does Matt Canavan, having a degree means they went to uni, it doesn't mean they can research and analayse info correctly or even that they have the knowledge in the field they are doing that work

Doing a degree in economics doesn't make you a climate scientist, I mean look at cosplay Canavan.......

Kelly is a shonky salesman, the fact he didn't go to university has nothing to do with how he acts, we've got other politicians that didn't go to university that don't behave like Kelly

This idea that a university degree makes someone better is about as good as the idea that it qualifies someone to be a politician

These are the sort of guys we've all seen at uni that learn only to pass exams without ever really properly exploring anything beyond what will get them a degree at the end of things.

 

[Gralin]

These are the sort of guys we've all seen at uni that learn only to pass exams without ever really properly exploring anything beyond what will get them a degree at the end of things.

just a stepping stone on their pathway to wealth and power

 

[faible]

Not biased at all, right?

I'm sure old mate who owns his home and has no debt has no problem with the interest rate going up.

I'm also sure they neglect to mention that whilst interest rates were much higher, the actual price of housing was drastically lower. I'd much rather their deal than the current one.

 

[Magruder]

just a stepping stone on their pathway to wealth and power

Ticking a box.

But if you listen to many of the Libs education is simply to spit out wage serfs for their donors or as a vehicle toward cultural hegemony.

 

[Forward Press]

I'm sure old mate who owns his home and has no debt has no problem with the interest rate going up.

I'm also sure they neglect to mention that whilst interest rates were much higher, the actual price of housing was drastically lower. I'd much rather their deal than the current one.

Yep - sure interest rates were far higher, but house prices were also more than ten times lower - but we are not earning ten times as much.

It was not uncommon for mortgages back then to be paid off within a few years with a single income rather than the typical 20 to 30 years we see now.

 

[faible]

the typical 20 to 30 years we see now.

It's their own fault though.

Everyone who works hard earns $300k plus 17% super suckling on the public teat right?

 

[Forward Press]

It's their own fault though.

Everyone who works hard earns $300k plus 17% super suckling on the public teat right?

A redditor commenting that thread where I found the image put into perspective - their grandfather borrowed $20k in 1990 to pay for half of his house, and since he earnt at least that in a year he had it fully paid not long afterwards. Today, the Prime Minister's salary before tax would not even be close to the median house price - the PM earns $400k while the median is near enough to $500k.

How is this sustainable? And we wonder why so many are struggling to enter the housing market. If you have kids or earn minimum wage, you will never get in. And yet the government turns its nose up at a Keystart style program which has been delivering results in WA for increasing housing affordability for low income earners while saving the government money on public housing.

 

[faible]

A redditor commenting that thread where I found the image put into perspective - their grandfather borrowed $20k in 1990 to pay for half of his house, and since he earnt at least that in a year he had it fully paid not long afterwards. Today, the Prime Minister's salary before tax would not even be close to the median house price - the PM earns $400k while the median is near enough to $500k.

How is this sustainable? And we wonder why so many are struggling to enter the housing market. If you have kids or earn minimum wage, you will never get in. And yet the government turns its nose up at a Keystart style program which has been delivering results in WA for increasing housing affordability for low income earners while saving the government money on public housing.

It's not sustainable, but so long as you have homeowners demanding their houses keep skyrocketing in value because somewhere along the way housing because investment not shelter, there's going to be politicians jockeying for votes on it.

When a huge portion of the voter base are older homeowners, neither major party is likely to do all that much to meaningful address housing (though at least the ALP appears to be trying to do something similar to WA).

 

[Gralin]

A redditor commenting that thread where I found the image put into perspective - their grandfather borrowed $20k in 1990 to pay for half of his house, and since he earnt at least that in a year he had it fully paid not long afterwards. Today, the Prime Minister's salary before tax would not even be close to the median house price - the PM earns $400k while the median is near enough to $500k.

How is this sustainable? And we wonder why so many are struggling to enter the housing market. If you have kids or earn minimum wage, you will never get in. And yet the government turns its nose up at a Keystart style program which has been delivering results in WA for increasing housing affordability for low income earners while saving the government money on public housing.

We have a suburb in Melbourne called Broadmeadows, it's rather well known locally you may have heard of The boy from Broady Eddie McGuire

it's probably one of the cheapest suburbs in Melbourne theoretically at least

 

[Gralin]

Lol I just looked at my suburb and prices are 19% higher than last year, we've been here since 2014 and prices have more than doubled in that time

how is anyone meant to keep up with this