Polls Thread Mk III

[FredLeDeux]

How can ALP go up in primary, LNP go down, but ALP goes down on TPP?

Coz pollsters use guesswork for preference flows

 

[Vindicater]

How can ALP go up in primary, LNP go down, but ALP goes down on TPP?

They changed their preference flows.

 

[pjcrows]

Never trust a Morgan Poll!

 

[Pessimistic]

Never trust a Morgan Poll!

Unless you are using it to spill a sitting PM

 

[Hornberger]

How can ALP go up in primary, LNP go down, but ALP goes down on TPP?

Old Method
Last week: 55.5 / 44.5
This week: 56.0 (+0.5) / 44.0 (-0.5)

New Method
Last week: 54.0 / 46.0
This week: 54.5 (+0.5) / 45.5 (-0.5)

ALP only goes down on 2PP when you compare this week result with the new method to last week result with the old method.

If you compare using the same method, ALP is up on 2PP.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Do the polls from here onwards include people who have already voted early or postally?

 

[Hornberger]

Do the polls from here onwards include people who have already voted early or postally?

Yes. The polling firms will ask people if they have already voted. If they say yes, they will ask who they voted for. If they say no, they will ask who they intend to vote for.

 

[moistie]

Explains Scotty from marketing's I can change, just give me another chance pity spiel.

Sent from my SM-G990E using Tapatalk

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Explains Scotty from marketing's I can change, just give me another chance pity spiel.

Sent from my SM-G990E using Tapatalk

By this time in 2019 the polls had started tightening.
I still suspect they will but I don't think by enough to save Morrison

 

[Vindicater]

Explains Scotty from marketing's I can change, just give me another chance pity spiel.

Sent from my SM-G990E using Tapatalk

That change came about from internal polling and feedback accordinf to Savva.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

The uComms poll of 831 Goldstein residents predicts that former ABC journalist Zoe Daniels will defeat Liberal MP Tim Wilson on May 21.

 

[aCunningPlan]

By this time in 2019 the polls had started tightening.
I still suspect they will but I don't think by enough to save Morrison

I think it's done.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

via the West

400 respondents each, ALP-LIB

Swan 53-47
Pearce 52-48
Tangney 46-54
Hasluck 45-55

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Morgan Latest (15th May)

ALP 53
LNP 47

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Morgan has Greens at 13% highest for any Federal Election

 

[Kyptastic]

Morgan Latest (15th May)

ALP 53
LNP 47


View attachment 1402022

There's a potential they've gone to underestimating the result now that they have switched to using 2019 preference flows as opposed to what methodology they were using previously.

 

[Magruder]

There's a potential they've gone to underestimating the result now that they have switched to using 2019 preference flows as opposed to what methodology they were using previously.

2019 preference flows from 3rd parties to Libs was well outside expectations.

Is the 53 ALP rounded down?

 

[Hoops]

There's a potential they've gone to underestimating the result now that they have switched to using 2019 preference flows as opposed to what methodology they were using previously.

Is that overall or seat by seat?

 

[Number37]

Some interesting analysis...




TLDR:

 

[Pessimistic]

None have the lnp primary anywhere near last time which was a bare one seat majority

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Average of all polls

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Poll for Chinese Australians (6093 participants)
ALP 75%
LNP 18%

This compares to 2019
LNP 61
ALP 28

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Poll for Chinese Australians (6093 participants)
ALP 75%
LNP 18%

This compares to 2019
LNP 61
ALP 28

strange what happens when you vilify a race of people for 2 years

 

[QuietB]

strange what happens when you vilify a race of people for 2 years

I think the in your face shouting at the top of your voice alpha bullshit of Morrison and Dutton would also be quite an affront to the Chinese who are pretty well mannered generally.