AFL 2022 AFL GRAND FINAL.

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Time for people to get carded.
People who come here to post bets after the fact will get a free one week holiday.
 
Figured I might as well post what I'm on for the day. Good luck all.

Some odds are gone but should be able to find similar.

Disposal Bets
3u - Stanley over 12.5 disposals - $1.94 - SB
12/17 (70%) this year (excluding injury), 14/19 (73%) last year. Has a 2022 average of 13.25 and median of 14.

4u - Hickey 15+ disposals - $1.70 - TAB ($1.69 SB/TopSport)
Is a reliable 15+ disposal player. Has hit 15+ in 9/15 games this year and 15/21 last year. When looking closer at his numbers this year, he’s had a few injury games that have limited his output. When going to at least 70% of his teams CBAs in 2022 he has cleared in 8/11 games. Has strong history against Geelong and Stanley with 16 in round 22, and 20 in 2021.

4u - Warner 20+ disposals - $1.65 - TAB
Backing up on Warner who has put together an impressive season. Is 18/23 for the season and 10/12 post bye for 20+. Had 25 against Geelong in round 2. Can even go one deeper and look at his CBA stats, when going to 60% or more, he has hit 20+ in 12/13, the one miss being a 19 disposal game. Expecting him to be around that mark in what has been a very consistent role in the back end of the season.

2.5u - Papley AGS & 15+ disposals - $2.06 - TopSport
Has kicked a goal in 16/18 games. Disposal wise, he Started the season off fairly slowly after an injury, build his fitness and begun getting regular CBA numbers. This helps him offensively as it allows him to lose his defender on the way back to goals. It also results in high disposal numbers. Post-bye in 2022 he has really hit his straps averaging 17.45 with a median of 17 and has hit 15+ and 1+ goal in 9/11 games. Has had 15 and 2, and 16 and 3.2 so far this finals serious. Have opted for the 15+ over the 15.5 on offer due to the potential for a lower disposal game with the Swans being a tough match up throughout the year.

3u - Lloyd over 22.5 disposals - $1.65 - 365
Has a mean and median of 24 and has gone over this one in 14/23 and has 27 off the Cats early in the year. Has taken over as dominant kick in taker over the finals series as the Swans have preferred the ball in his hands. The Cats have allowed high uncontested disposal numbers off half back as they set up behind the ball which encourages sides to avoid kicking long. Have also picked up that half backers in recent years have had a solid showing in GFs as teams have taken less risk and been more tentative with their ball movement.

2.5u - Mills over 24.5 disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
Is most likely to be deployed as a tagger on Dangerfield today. When in the same role in round 2 he kept Danger to 13 whilst getting 29 of his own. Has cleared in 13/24 this season and has the strong ability to win the ball when tagging and hurt his opponent offensively.

2.5u - Stewart under 22.5 disposals - $1.70 (after comm) - Betfair
Post bye is under in 7/8 games. Would be silly for someone not to put some work into him today. Geelong are at their best when he is intercepting and distributing the footy. Expecting Sydney to restrict how much they pump it down the line to avoid bringing him into the game.

2u - Duncan under 23.5 disposals - $1.87 - SB/Ladbrokes
Sydney have been the stingiest team all season for half backers and the stingiest side in the comp for opposition disposals. Is under in 13/21 games this season and a chance for a Ryan Clarke tag.

2u - Dangerfield under 23.5 disposals - $1.85 - SB
Had a Mills tag in round 2 and was held to 13 when fit off a strong preseason. Given how good he was last week I see it highly unlikely that he comes in without extra attention.

2u - Parker under 25.5 disposals - 1.74 - TopSport
Expecting a team tag on Parker like the one we saw against Neale. Geelong are a tough match up for an inside mid and the Cats are historically his third worst side to match up on.

2u - Miers 15+ disposals - $2 - SB
Strong finish to the season with 4/5 games going 15+. The miss came against Collingwood when he suffered a rib injury mid game. Plays an important link up role for the Cats which is highlighted by the fact that he is ranked 17th in the comp for goal assists. He ranks elite in the comp in this area and has a 5 games average of 2.2 goal assists which is well above the league average. Think he’ll be required to push onto the wing a touch more than usual due to the status of Holmes.

Goal Scorer Bets
2u - Rohan 2+ goals - $2.63 - TopSport
0.5u - Rohan 3+ goals - $7 - PointsBet
Flying under the radar as the 4th best forward in the side after Hawkins, Cameron, and Stengle. Leaves him with plenty of opportunities to make his mark. Has kicked 2+ in 6/11 games this year and 2+ in each of his last 3. Value at this price.

1.5u - Holmes AGS - $2.55 - 365
Goals in 10/18 games this season and 1.1 in both finals game which gives this bet value. Was subbed out due to a hamstring last week and as a result I believe he’ll spend a bit more time forward due to potentially losing some of his running power.

2.5u - McLean AGS - $1.77 - 365/Ladbrokes
One of the big stories of the grand final is McLean in for McDonald. Has solid form in 2022 so believe his place in the side is well merited. In the AFL this year he has kicked 10.3 and goals in 7/8 games. In the VFL he has kicked 26.9 in 11 games and at least one goal in each game. Accuracy the big factor here and something that he has shown this year.

Same Game Multis
Looking at season long historical data, have excluded injury affected games when looking at these. Bets are heavily stat based but present better value than the odds suggest.

5u - Low Risk SGM - $1.65 - 365
-Hawkins AGS 23/24 (96%)
-Franklin AGS 21/22 (95%)
-Isaac Smith 15+ 23/23 (100%)
-Tuohy 15+ 23/23 (100%)
-Atkins 10+ 24/24 (100%)

2u - Medium Risk SGM - $3.25 - 365
-Heeney AGS 22/24 (92%)
-Papley 10+ 15/17 (88%), 11/11 (100%) post bye
-Gulden 15+ 21/24 (87%)
-Atkins 15+ 22/24 (92%)
-Mills 20+ 22/24 (92%)
-C.Guthrie 20+ 23/24 (96%)

1u - Long Odds SGM - $11 - 365
-Hawkins AGS 23/24 (96%)
-Franklin AGS 21/22 (95%)
-Heeney AGS 22/24 (92%)
-Papley 10+ 15/17 (88%), 11/11 (100%) post bye
-Isaac Smith 15+ 23/23 (100%)
-Tuohy 15+ 23/23 (100%)
-Atkins 15+ 22/24 (91%)
-Gulden 15+ 21/24 (87%)
-Guthrie 20+ 23/24 (96%)
-Dangerfield 20+ 11/17 (64%) but in form with 5/5
-Mills 20+ 22/24 (92%)
-Warner 20+ 18/23 (78%)
 
Ohh Ok said:
Figured I might as well post what I'm on for the day. Good luck all.

Some odds are gone but should be able to find similar.

Disposal Bets
3u - Stanley over 12.5 disposals - $1.94 - SB
12/17 (70%) this year (excluding injury), 14/19 (73%) last year. Has a 2022 average of 13.25 and median of 14.

4u - Hickey 15+ disposals - $1.70 - TAB ($1.69 SB/TopSport)
Is a reliable 15+ disposal player. Has hit 15+ in 9/15 games this year and 15/21 last year. When looking closer at his numbers this year, he’s had a few injury games that have limited his output. When going to at least 70% of his teams CBAs in 2022 he has cleared in 8/11 games. Has strong history against Geelong and Stanley with 16 in round 22, and 20 in 2021.

4u - Warner 20+ disposals - $1.65 - TAB
Backing up on Warner who has put together an impressive season. Is 18/23 for the season and 10/12 post bye for 20+. Had 25 against Geelong in round 2. Can even go one deeper and look at his CBA stats, when going to 60% or more, he has hit 20+ in 12/13, the one miss being a 19 disposal game. Expecting him to be around that mark in what has been a very consistent role in the back end of the season.

2.5u - Papley AGS & 15+ disposals - $2.06 - TopSport
Has kicked a goal in 16/18 games. Disposal wise, he Started the season off fairly slowly after an injury, build his fitness and begun getting regular CBA numbers. This helps him offensively as it allows him to lose his defender on the way back to goals. It also results in high disposal numbers. Post-bye in 2022 he has really hit his straps averaging 17.45 with a median of 17 and has hit 15+ and 1+ goal in 9/11 games. Has had 15 and 2, and 16 and 3.2 so far this finals serious. Have opted for the 15+ over the 15.5 on offer due to the potential for a lower disposal game with the Swans being a tough match up throughout the year.

3u - Lloyd over 22.5 disposals - $1.65 - 365
Has a mean and median of 24 and has gone over this one in 14/23 and has 27 off the Cats early in the year. Has taken over as dominant kick in taker over the finals series as the Swans have preferred the ball in his hands. The Cats have allowed high uncontested disposal numbers off half back as they set up behind the ball which encourages sides to avoid kicking long. Have also picked up that half backers in recent years have had a solid showing in GFs as teams have taken less risk and been more tentative with their ball movement.

2.5u - Mills over 24.5 disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
Is most likely to be deployed as a tagger on Dangerfield today. When in the same role in round 2 he kept Danger to 13 whilst getting 29 of his own. Has cleared in 13/24 this season and has the strong ability to win the ball when tagging and hurt his opponent offensively.

2.5u - Stewart under 22.5 disposals - $1.70 (after comm) - Betfair
Post bye is under in 7/8 games. Would be silly for someone not to put some work into him today. Geelong are at their best when he is intercepting and distributing the footy. Expecting Sydney to restrict how much they pump it down the line to avoid bringing him into the game.

2u - Duncan under 23.5 disposals - $1.87 - SB/Ladbrokes
Sydney have been the stingiest team all season for half backers and the stingiest side in the comp for opposition disposals. Is under in 13/21 games this season and a chance for a Ryan Clarke tag.

2u - Dangerfield under 23.5 disposals - $1.85 - SB
Had a Mills tag in round 2 and was held to 13 when fit off a strong preseason. Given how good he was last week I see it highly unlikely that he comes in without extra attention.

2u - Parker under 25.5 disposals - 1.74 - TopSport
Expecting a team tag on Parker like the one we saw against Neale. Geelong are a tough match up for an inside mid and the Cats are historically his third worst side to match up on.

2u - Miers 15+ disposals - $2 - SB
Strong finish to the season with 4/5 games going 15+. The miss came against Collingwood when he suffered a rib injury mid game. Plays an important link up role for the Cats which is highlighted by the fact that he is ranked 17th in the comp for goal assists. He ranks elite in the comp in this area and has a 5 games average of 2.2 goal assists which is well above the league average. Think he’ll be required to push onto the wing a touch more than usual due to the status of Holmes.

Goal Scorer Bets
2u - Rohan 2+ goals - $2.63 - TopSport
0.5u - Rohan 3+ goals - $7 - PointsBet
Flying under the radar as the 4th best forward in the side after Hawkins, Cameron, and Stengle. Leaves him with plenty of opportunities to make his mark. Has kicked 2+ in 6/11 games this year and 2+ in each of his last 3. Value at this price.

1.5u - Holmes AGS - $2.55 - 365
Goals in 10/18 games this season and 1.1 in both finals game which gives this bet value. Was subbed out due to a hamstring last week and as a result I believe he’ll spend a bit more time forward due to potentially losing some of his running power.

2.5u - McLean AGS - $1.77 - 365/Ladbrokes
One of the big stories of the grand final is McLean in for McDonald. Has solid form in 2022 so believe his place in the side is well merited. In the AFL this year he has kicked 10.3 and goals in 7/8 games. In the VFL he has kicked 26.9 in 11 games and at least one goal in each game. Accuracy the big factor here and something that he has shown this year.

Same Game Multis
Looking at season long historical data, have excluded injury affected games when looking at these. Bets are heavily stat based but present better value than the odds suggest.

5u - Low Risk SGM - $1.65 - 365
-Hawkins AGS 23/24 (96%)
-Franklin AGS 21/22 (95%)
-Isaac Smith 15+ 23/23 (100%)
-Tuohy 15+ 23/23 (100%)
-Atkins 10+ 24/24 (100%)

2u - Medium Risk SGM - $3.25 - 365
-Heeney AGS 22/24 (92%)
-Papley 10+ 15/17 (88%), 11/11 (100%) post bye
-Gulden 15+ 21/24 (87%)
-Atkins 15+ 22/24 (92%)
-Mills 20+ 22/24 (92%)
-C.Guthrie 20+ 23/24 (96%)

1u - Long Odds SGM - $11 - 365
-Hawkins AGS 23/24 (96%)
-Franklin AGS 21/22 (95%)
-Heeney AGS 22/24 (92%)
-Papley 10+ 15/17 (88%), 11/11 (100%) post bye
-Isaac Smith 15+ 23/23 (100%)
-Tuohy 15+ 23/23 (100%)
-Atkins 15+ 22/24 (91%)
-Gulden 15+ 21/24 (87%)
-Guthrie 20+ 23/24 (96%)
-Dangerfield 20+ 11/17 (64%) but in form with 5/5
-Mills 20+ 22/24 (92%)
-Warner 20+ 18/23 (78%)
Click to expand...
Out of curiosity, have you got on bets on the Grand Final? 🤣
 
NYRB said:
Brown was a forward maybe a little bet on a forward?

Panel doesnt really strike me as a panel that will favour forwards/defenders.

Also reflecting back on 97-98 when McLeod won, game has changed alot since when the Crows won those flags. Reckon Shane Ellen/Jarman could have won the medal in 97, Darren Jarman in 98, if we were looking at stat indicators today. Some player (i think it was Shane Crawford) suggested that the voting panel should not get insights into stats when allocating votes- which I think is pretty fair but would be impossible to enforce.

Holmes/Gleeson dont strike me as punters. McLeod is pretty quite , dont hear him alot in social media. Ive never heard of this Gleeson guy until yesterday . David Mundy probably give more weight to a midfielder.

Names that ring a bell which I think were lesser names to get up: Jason Johannisen, Brian Lake, Ryan O'Keefe, Chapman, Embley, Shaun Hart, Archer. Think everyone would love to see an underdog get up.

McLeod kicked no goals in those games despite winning the medal in 97-98. Think both games he had 30 disposals . 30+ disposals back then were different to 30+ disposals today.
Click to expand...
30+ McLeod disposals and he wins you the game, hurts you way too much. He was never a huge accumulator- some of his later days across half back he definitely got plenty of the ball though. I think it was 98 I don’t know how many times he weaved through traffic and hit a team mate by themselves to slot an easy goal.
 

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GROTTO said:
HOLMES OUT, PARFITT IN.

BREAKING NEWS
Click to expand...

Shocked Patrick Stewart GIF
 
Swansong05 said:
I fancy the swans if anybody gives a rat's toss bag .....I just like Thier speed , not the nose stuff but the running power
Click to expand...

Poorly timed drinking session on the biggest of days - will struggle to make at to half time you would think
 
I have a lot of bets on for today's game, lots of multis, few NS bets, mostly with a Geelong focus as I think they win it.

Not going to list all my bets but I like Brad Close a lot today, taken him in a few multis and a few singles as well:

Close 2,3,4 @ $4.50, $14, $51 (PB)
Close top scorer @ $41
Close NS @ $160 (BF)
 

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1u wire to wire 2.05 at pb
0.25 QTR leader cats/swans/cats/swans 41 at lads
1 unit Gary Rohan 2+ 2.20 at lads

Pb have a first disposal market lol 625213405.jpg

On Pixel 4a using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
The final hurrah gents

Norm-
Parker @11
Duncan @27 Topsport


Smith 1,2 @2.80,13

Hawk 2
Franklin 2
Stengle
Close
Papley
@6.80

Buddy 2
Cameron 2
Hawk 2
Heeney
Stengle
Reid
@9.80
 
Norm

Danger 7.80
Parker 15
Papley 28
Duncan 30

1st goal
Close 21.36

Possession SGM (all 20+)
Stewart Dangerfield Duncan
Parker Mills Lloyd
4.42

Ludicrious 10 leg Any Time Goal Multi
Duncan Miers Close Rohan Dangerfield
Reid Gulden McLean Hayward Warner
327
 
Also taken Duncan for a bit today.

Duncan 1,2,3,4 @ $3, $23, $91, $750
Duncan NS @ $26
 
PointsBet Stat Multiplier Spread Betting (Kicks x Goals x Hanbdalls)


Callum Mills OVER 42. This line was around 58-68 early in the year. scored a goal against Geelong in the last game.
Florent OVER 21. I have him as value for Norm Smith.
Justin McInerney OVER 15. Cheap play for a guy that was about treble his line during the season.
Mitch Duncan OVER 33. When he kicks goals he generally scores big.
Zach Tuohy OVER 29. Averages 48 ish over the past 2 seasons
Isaac Smith OVER 43. Averages 58ish over the past 2 seasons
Hickey OVER 20. Might be a chance to snag a goal today and the average of 21 or so , with low floor.
Hayden McLean OVER 19. Cheap play for a player that got goals before getting dropped during this seaosn.
 
My bets for today.

Isaac Smith. Goals (1/2/3) and NS.

Franklin. Goals (5/6) and NS.

Warner. Goals (3) and NS.

Cameron. Goals (5).

Gulden. Goals (2/3).

McLean. Goals (4).
 
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