Matthew Guy. Can a mediocre leader with a 3rd rate team win government?

[Not Important]

 

[peetoo]

Monique Ryan scored 41% primary, short of Josh’s 44% so preferences were in play

Swings against were alp -11%. Green -15% lib -6.5%. 31% total

Leaving alp 7% greens 6% others 4%

Monique picked up 15% preferences and libs 3%

So obviously no Monique preferences went to lib and vice versa

You’d imagine the 4% others went to lib and 17% alp green went to Monique

I’m sure when alp and green voters saw Monique’s numbers they tactically voted so that Monique preferences never flowed to libs


The 2nd candidate preferred in 2018 was green with 44%. Monique was 54%. 6% increase from lib and 4% elsewhere.

It was a combination, but it was tactical voting
So in hawthorn with a sitting alp member, what’s the motivation for an alp or even green to put teal first? Surely they vote as they do, and preference green or teal after?

 

[Fire]

Ok o judgemental one. Look at the swings in kooyong and back up your insult

What relevance does this or any future result have to do with Josh losing liberal voters earlier this year?

Votes don't get split in a preferential system; you need more than 50% of preferences to win a seat. If a majority of people in an electorate prefer the liberal candidate, then it doesn't matter how much 'strategy' the minority ALP voters apply at the ballot.

Josh just had fewer people prefer him over the teal. And that could only have happened if he lost liberal preferences. Its basic maths.

 

[peetoo]

What relevance does this or any future result have to do with Josh losing liberal voters earlier this year?

Votes don't get split in a preferential system; you need more than 50% of preferences to win a seat. If a majority of people in an electorate prefer the liberal candidate, then it doesn't matter how much 'strategy' the minority ALP voters apply at the ballot.

Josh just had fewer people prefer him over the teal. And that could only have happened if he lost liberal preferences. Its basic maths.

It didn’t happen without labor and greens tactical voting.either. 25% to 6%

My original point is why would hawthorn alp voters vote teal?

 

[Millky95]

It didn’t happen without labor and greens tactical voting.either. 25% to 6%

My original point is why would hawthorn alp voters vote teal?

Call me crazy but if I voted:

1 ALP
2 Greens
3 Independent
4 LNP

or

1 Greens
2 Independent
3 ALP
4 LNP

or

1 Independent
2 LNP
3 ALP
4 Green

I would have preference the Independent over the LNP. I doubt any Greens or ALP voter would have "tactically" put the Independent over the LNP, it would have happened organic anyway.

You can't really tactically vote in our system

 

[peetoo]

As the top two, neither Monica nor Josh’s preferences were in play

Personally I went Monica. Alp then libs last so Monica’s preferences would never flow to liberal, and give josh a second chance

Of course it’s just one vote, but the tactic makes sense. Of course before 2019 the libs primary never dropped below 50, and peacock got 61 in 1990
So the damage was done then. 16% lost primary in two elections

 

[Donakebab]

ABC are playing Guy's campaign launch speech atm. It's one of the most uninspiring things I have ever seen in my life.


It also sounds as if there's about a dozen people there.

 

[QuietB]

So in hawthorn with a sitting alp member, what’s the motivation for an alp or even green to put teal first? Surely they vote as they do, and preference green or teal after?

I think the motivation is that the Liberals are campaigners

 

[aCunningPlan]

Call me crazy but if I voted:

1 ALP
2 Greens
3 Independent
4 LNP

or

1 Greens
2 Independent
3 ALP
4 LNP

or

1 Independent
2 LNP
3 ALP
4 Green

I would have preference the Independent over the LNP. I doubt any Greens or ALP voter would have "tactically" put the Independent over the LNP, it would have happened organic anyway.

You can't really tactically vote in our system

Tactical voting is absolutely alive and well in certain circumstances. Plenty of Labor voters moved the teal knowing they needed the final contest to be between Teal and LIB so the Teal would get up. If it was an ALP/LIB contest with the final two then there would enough Teal voters bleeding to the LIBs to make it too close for comfort.

 

[peetoo]

Tactical voting is absolutely alive and well in certain circumstances. Plenty of Labor voters moved the teal knowing they needed the final contest to be between Teal and LIB so the Teal would get up. If it was an ALP/LIB contest with the final two then there would enough Teal voters bleeding to the LIBs to make it too close for comfort.

Concisely put what I was trying to say

And the absolute novelty of being anywhere near marginal status

 

[Millky95]

Tactical voting is absolutely alive and well in certain circumstances. Plenty of Labor voters moved the teal knowing they needed the final contest to be between Teal and LIB so the Teal would get up. If it was an ALP/LIB contest with the final two then there would enough Teal voters bleeding to the LIBs to make it too close for comfort.

ALP and GRN voters would have put The Teal higher anyway

Fraud lost his seat due to losing former LNP voters

 

[geoffjennings79]

ALP and GRN voters would have put The Teal higher anyway

Fraud lost his seat due to losing former LNP voters

And he lost those former voters because he was precisely that. Spent years cultivating a fake facade as a moderate average 'bloke' (!), meanwhile he was a scheming campaigner whose sole aim was the top job.

His loss in May was a high point in my decades of political engagement.

 

[aCunningPlan]

ALP and GRN voters would have put The Teal higher anyway

Fraud lost his seat due to losing former LNP voters

Yes that is true. But if the teal primary vote wasn't high enough there was a chance they could finish third and have their preferences distributed.

 

[winty]

 

[peetoo]

And he lost those former voters because he was precisely that. Spent years cultivating a fake facade as a moderate average 'bloke' (!), meanwhile he was a scheming campaigner whose sole aim was the top job.

His loss in May was a high point in my decades of political engagement.

Your welcome

 

[Fire]

It didn’t happen without labor and greens tactical voting.either. 25% to 6%

My original point is why would hawthorn alp voters vote teal?

Yeah thats a stupid question. You just dont understand our voting system or how it works. I've explained it to you and you just can't get it.

Go with whatever narrative makes you feel good.

 

[QuietB]

It didn’t happen without labor and greens tactical voting.either. 25% to 6%

My original point is why would hawthorn alp voters vote teal?

Frydenberg lost 10% of his primary vote. There is barely a Liberal in the country who can survive that

 

[peetoo]

Frydenberg lost 10% of his primary vote. There is barely a Liberal in the country who can survive that

16%

 

[peetoo]

Yeah thats a stupid question. You just dont understand our voting system or how it works. I've explained it to you and you just can't get it.

Go with whatever narrative makes you feel good.

You’ve explained Jack. Just belligerent

 

[mighty tiges]

WTF did Guy think happened in a debate?

 

[mighty tiges]

 

[Fire]

I mean I'm not always presentable myself, but why was Guy so red? Is he always like that?

 

[peetoo]

Home venue in sky too. s**t job but someone has to do it

 

[Golden_6]

What’s the logic between having this debate on Sky? I mean it’s a Pay TV Channel and we all know the types that actually watch this station.

Is it an ALP strategy to try and sway some voters they are usually no chance with? You’d think it would be better for the generally unengaged public for it to reach a wider audience.

 

[Saint]

What’s the logic between having this debate on Sky? I mean it’s a Pay TV Channel and we all know the types that actually watch this station.

Is it an ALP strategy to try and sway some voters they are usually no chance with? You’d think it would be better for the generally unengaged public for it to reach a wider audience.

Who's watching Sky that might be thinking of changing their vote from ALP to LNP? Zero people. Therefore Andrews stands to lose nothing.

If it were on ABC, you might move that number to greater than zero. Some ALP voters might see something about Andrews they don't like.

There are no non-LNP non-cookers watching Sky.

This way, the debate happens, it's reported on (which just blandly says what happened) and that's all that most people find out about the debate. Maybe some cookers/LNP change their minds, but none of the ALP voters do.