Fixture Who finishes last in 2023?

[Freomaniac]

WillHayward , get you Kim Kardashian out here and make a prediction on who gets last lol

 

[EBERT THE KING]

The JOM trade was horrific and the assets that were given up to trade for him with his injuries

And to have him play 99 games just 1 short of 100 and father son qualification if he has sons is something that would be even more pain if they are any good

if your auntie had balls she would be your uncle too. 99 games absolutely irrelevant

 

[Freomaniac]

Looks like someone has mentally blocked out the 2018 trade and draft period. I’m not surprised, that one was a disaster for you guys.

That is well documented.

If thats the only year out of that 6 year stint of the reubuild from 2016-2021, so be it.

Still, name any other year freo could of got an elite tall forward in the draft from 2016-21, not including 2018.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

As is generally the case with the teams expected to be in the bottom 6-8, it will largely depend on what sort of injury run you get.

As most of those rebuilding teams have very little experienced depth to call on when injuries hit, they are extremely vulnerable to injuries.

The wheels can fall off very quickly when injuries start to add up.

Have a very good injury run on the other hand and sure, you’ll probably go OK and comfortably avoid the spoon.

Hawks didn’t have a great run with injuries in 2022 and still managed 8 wins.

It’s going to be nice to have fit ruckman this year(touch wood).

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

if your auntie had balls she would be your uncle too. 99 games absolutely irrelevant

Really !!!

Ben Allan son Ed Allan would have been a handy father son selection , Too bad he only played 98 games
what a shame

 

[Purple Suit]

Freo's forward line is the big problem. Your top goal scorer from 2022 just left and you have the worst tall forwards in the league. Amiss may turn out to be a good player but he's played 3 games, so is several years from leading a forward line. Tabener is old, injured and inconsistent. Top end KPP talent is what was missed during the build.

The Eagle's pre-season was stuffed by a bunch of players getting sick in March, right as the season was starting. They were at peak fitness but didn't have game conditioning (which teams getbin the first few rounds). By the time they recovered, they were behind the 8 ball and playing group catchup.

I don't know what protocols they were supposed to put in given the majority caught it off their kids. No player would be agreeing to not seeing their family for a season. Freo was lucky that not many player had kids, but a number of those who did also caught it (eg Mundy).

This thread is about who finishes last in 2023 & WC just lost their top goal scorer from 2022 & he kicked a far bigger % of your goals than Lobb did for us. Rioli sets up a lot of goals & your 6th top scorer.

If Darling goes down you will barely kick a goal.

 

[Kimbo]

In Fitzroy's ill-fated last 3 seasons, they won just 8 games. In North's last 3 seasons, they have won only 9 games.

For further comparison, Carlton at its... worst, won 11 games in 3 years. Melbourne at its lowest ebb... won 10 games in 3 years. GWS as a new team full of teenagers won 9 games in 3 years.

In Fitzroy's last 4 years, they won a total of 18 games. That means North need 9 wins next year just to break even with Fitzroy's performances at their death (they need 8 wins to break even with Melbourne at their worst, 11 wins to break even with GWS and 13 wins to break even with the worst of Carlton).

I think sometimes (including in this thread) it is underestimated just how bad North have been in the last 3 years. They are one of the worst performed teams we have ever seen.

I don't disagree with your basic premise - 'North have been woefully bad in the last 3 years'. It's been incredibly hard to watch and to hold hope, as it has been for supporters of those other teams you mention when they endured their dark periods. Any look back on relevant boards will show this.

* A small caveat on the statistics; 2020 was a 17 game season, so the percentage of games won was a bit higher, also including the draw in 2021.

They may turn it around in 2023 (and certainly have some ingredients to do so) but they are coming from a long, long way back. Surprising to me they have so few votes in this thread (and less than half of my own team).

As history shows, the wheel turns sooner or later, especially when low finishes lead to high draft picks which, statistically speaking, are more likely to lead teams back up the ladder. Of course, that is but one factor in success, but it is a significant one all the same. As we all know, as players mature, and play more games, the better they become. The 'sweet spot' of 50-70 games experience is important, ideally with each other to build synergy, and with a decent smattering of good senior experience alongside to guide them. Of course, losing badly isn't ideal, but the experience gained at the level is still valuable.

As we saw with Collingwood last year, past performance and ladder finishes don't, by themselves, indicate future performance, like investment portfolios. Context matters a lot, and it seems axiomatic that opposition supports don't see, and/or appreciate positive context for our own teams in the same way we do. An obvious statement, perhaps, but it's a key reason for differing perceptions and biases. No criticism of you, or others; we all do it. For example, Pies supporters will naturally highlight 2021 as an aberration for context.

Consider the arguments of the two NM posters, below, for 'turning it around':

• Our best defender and leading intercept marker [McKay] on average playing more than 9 full games in the back line
• Our best midfielder of the past decade playing more than 2 nothing games [Cunnington].
• A pick 3 not being strucken out by glandular fever. [Phillips]
• Tarryn Thomas and/or Jaidyn Stephenson pulling the finger out of their asses. [ie both have 'untapped potential' in particular consistency.]
• Bringing in a solid B grade key defender. [Logue]
• Other young players improving [Powell, Curtis, for example.]

• a new coach who’s actually proven to be capable of instituting a functional game plan [nice understatement here MP.]
• a new fitness regime befitting a 21st century sport team
• the belated inclusion of a second KPF on the field at the same time (gasp) as Larkey [Comben. If uninjured, 'watch this space.']
• the immediate availability of a young elite medium forward likened by draft watchers to Toby Greene [Sheezel]
• the likely continuation of LDU’s trajectory towards becoming one of the leagues bonafide midfield stars
• Better list management across the board resulting in some actual depth
• all new club governance staffed by people with commensurate experience, who are actually qualified. [incl. Viney, Ratten]

Lastly, I'd suggest that the results of the past few years have been caused by a few factors that I hope, won't exist next year.

• a history of mid-table finishes for 10 years, that along with some poor recruitment, ultimately lead to a mediocre list, and underwhelming senior talent to lead the incoming high picks. This is why there has been a well documented jettisoning of experienced players over the past 2-3 years.
• As much as I hate it, it seems we've been involved in 'strategic tanking' to obtain better picks. But that job is now all but complete I would say, including Port F1 in 2023. We'll look to trade in for a few holes, but the core young talent is there now.
• Woefully poor coaches in Shaw and Noble. If coaches rank with playing lists as the biggest factor in success, then swapping these two for Clarko is a 'no brainer' of a seismic shift. I sincerely doubt Clarko will oversee another wooden spoon, unless we are hit hard by injuries.
• Poor culture, alignment and support in the football department. Hood, Watt, Viney and Clarko hold more promise, along with Rawlings back to his rightful level.

Of course, it's all a positive slant, and as I said, that's what we all do. But, if you're wondering why more people don't have NMFC as spoon favourites, I think these points are the reasons, and it isn't just NMFC supporters that see it.

As for Hawthorn, I don't have enough insight to argue why they Hawks should be rated lower than NMFC, beyond the analysis of others (loss of experience etc.) I think the general perception is that the Hawks may also be 'bottoming out' or, at the very least, that they'll take time to reset. These days I don't know what to expect of any team. Time will tell.

 

[1970crow]

Eagles had the worst run of injuries in history last year and still couldn’t finish last.

Roos are my tip but they have gone from the worst coach ever seen to one of the top few. Won't be surprised if they're not bottom.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Really !!!

Ben Allan son Ed Allan would have been a handy father son selection , Too bad he only played 98 games
what a shame

We just missed out on Noah Anderson too.

If Luke Hodge's sons become good enough they'll be in the Brisbane Lions academy.

The father/son rule hasn't been too kind to Hawthorn.

 

[bh90210fan]

That is well documented.

If thats the only year out of that 6 year stint of the reubuild from 2016-2021, so be it.

Still, name any other year freo could of got an elite tall forward in the draft from 2016-21, not including 2018.

Aaron Naughton was sitting under your nose in 2017

 

[Rob R]

GWS. I think Hawks are favourites against

Nth at UTAS
GWS at Adel
WC at UTAS
Adl at UTAS

and are 50/50 versus

Essendon at the G
STK at MVL x2
GWS in Syd
Nth at MVL



GWS are favourites against ADL is Sydney and 50/50 at most in a few other games. Unlike the Hawks, their one off games against bottom end teams (like WC and Nth) are away.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[aussierulesrules]

Hawks didn’t have a great run with injuries in 2022 and still managed 8 wins.

It’s going to be nice to have fit ruckman this year(touch wood).

Yes, but you’ve since lost a truckload of experience and leadership, so you’ll almost certainly be a lot more vulnerable to injuries than you were this year.

 

[Shueygod]

This thread is about who finishes last in 2023 & WC just lost their top goal scorer from 2022 & he kicked a far bigger % of your goals than Lobb did for us. Rioli sets up a lot of goals & your 6th top scorer.

If Darling goes down you will barely kick a goal.

Allen would be your best forward by a country mile.

Is an upgrade on last years Kennedy.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Yes, but you’ve since lost a truckload of experience and leadership, so you’ll almost certainly be a lot more vulnerable to injuries than you were this year.

Easy to say that by looking at the outs, but we didn’t have McEvoy for majority of the year.
Sicily and JOM split the captaincy, and Sicily is still around and will be named Capt.
The decision to part with players was on the back of the belief that other leaders were coming up through the ranks like Lewis, Hardwick, Moore, Newk etc, so it’s not like it wasn’t considered.

 

[Freomaniac]

Aaron Naughton was sitting under your nose in 2017

That it was true.

But from what many people heard, Naughton didnt want to play for the dockers

 

[aussierulesrules]

That it was true.

But from what many people heard, Naughton didnt want to play for the dockers

Well that’s understandable.

 

[Khmerhawk]

During our three peat something which doesn’t get enough notice is the on field coaching that took place and the two players that did it the most was Mitchell and Hodge. Surprised we didn’t see Clarko in the coaches box, leaning back in his chair, hands behind his head and feet up on the table more often!

Sam’s coaching from game plan, setting up structures, training etc will definitely draw upon his experience from his playing days.

Agree, I think during the 3 peat that whole side could of coached themselves.Remember Clarkson went down for 5 weeks while Bolton took over and they won every game. People put it down to Bolton being a top coach but I don't think he needed much help with that side.
Anyway it was enough to fool Carlton to hire him as head coach! Nothing against Bolton but he's probably more suited to being an assistant.

 

[EconomicDecline]

I think Hawks

...

are 50/50 versus


STK at MVL x2

50/50 against Saints when they've won the past 5, Hawthorns midfield is decidedly worse, and playing Saints at their home ground?

 

[Red Bull]

Hawthorn right in the frame for the spoon in the next few seasons.
Mitchell would be well aware of this.
History says it’s very difficult for clubs to hold their nerve through these periods.
Interesting watch …

 

[Goomba1973]

West coast? Hawks? North? Bombers?

Who do you think finishes last?

Seeing as we're in a "rebuild" I am hoping West Coast..... no point finishing 9th to 12th , might as well take advantage of the fact we're a bit shite

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

On paper it has to be Hawthorn and thats ok internally they set themselves for that path and strategy.

IIRC their average age is on par with GWS debut season

 

[King Tenz]

Aaron Naughton was sitting under your nose in 2017

Naughton was a key defender though, I don't recall anyone considering him to be a potential elite key forward at the time of the draft.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

50/50 against Saints when they've won the past 5, Hawthorns midfield is decidedly worse, and playing Saints at their home ground?

and its not just that St Kilda are beating us at the moment. For whatever reason, it has been our worst game of the season by some margin at least the last 2 years.

Most games/teams we are leading at some point later in the game or are in touch throughout but the Saints games have regularly been 1 sided blowouts where we have looked atrocious.

Just checked: 2021 margin 69 points (biggest loss of the season)
2022 margin: 69 points (biggest loss of the season again) - return game was 12 point margin.

Definately not marking that as 50/50 based on recent history.

Given I attend all Saints Hawks games with my Saints supporting in laws, it has been particularly painful viewing.

 

[Couch Coach]

I'll go with history.

CLUB	SPOONS	YEARS	AVE.
Adelaide	1​	33​	33.0​
Essendon	5​	151​	30.2​
GWS	2​	14​	7.0​
Hawthorn	11​	122​	11.1​
North	15​	154​	10.3​
St Kilda	27​	150​	5.6​
West Coast	1​	37​	37.0​
Other	51​	1147​	22.5​

St Kilda averages 1 spoon evey 6 years or so.
Last wooden spoon 2014 so they are due.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I'll go with history.

CLUB	SPOONS	YEARS	AVE.
Adelaide	1​	33​	33.0​
Essendon	5​	151​	30.2​
GWS	2​	14​	7.0​
Hawthorn	11​	122​	11.1​
North	15​	154​	10.3​
St Kilda	27​	150​	5.6​
West Coast	1​	37​	37.0​
Other	51​	1147​	22.5​

St Kilda averages 1 spoon evey 6 years or so.
Last wooden spoon 2014 so they are due.

2 in the last 34 years, so we’ve actually won less than our fair share over that time…

That’s some pretty ancient history you’re going by there!