2025 Federal Election - Prediction Thread

[nut]

Its funny I was speaking to a LNP voter, who is a business owner and they are voting LNP because they want lower wages.

I wonder if that is consistent across the board.

to be fair on them, that is a legitimate reason for them and atleast they were honest.

LNP is the party of self interest…

Do they realise lower wages affect peoples ability to buy from small businesses….

Henry Ford says hi!!!

 

[Cap]

LNP is the party of self interest…

Do they realise lower wages affect peoples ability to buy from small businesses….

Henry Ford says hi!!!

That's the interesting part, alot of these guys are predominantly exporters

They don't care about Australians buying their stuff, it's going OS.

 

[Saint]

ALP 78
LNP 56, (net loss of 3)
GRN (4)
IND (15 +3)

There will be more seats changing hands, but this is the net final tally. I think Dickson is under real threat. If the polls don't tighten and the locals realise Dutton's gonna quit anyway, they might just turf him, Howard/Abbott style.

3 of Wannon, Bradfield, Calare, Cowper to be won by Independents.
Greens to hold all of theirs and the ALP/LNP to do some swaps.

 

[Saint]

LNP is the party of self interest…

Do they realise lower wages affect peoples ability to buy from small businesses….

Henry Ford says hi!!!

Fewer businesses are grass-roots types who rely on local clientele.

Trade suppliers, exporters and big retailers/service industry don't care about this type of thing.

Most small business people I meet don't talk big picture like that.

 

[apollo_creed]

Saw my first LNP Sturt specific ad yesterday from James Stevens.

First time I've seen him in 3 yrs.

But listening to various pundits, Labor are ahead in Sturt, mainly due to many people in the seat being Public servants who don't want to be forced back to the office for no good reason.

how many federal public servants 1) are in sturt 2) would change their vote based on the public service stuff

the seat was very close last time.

 

[Cap]

how many federal public servants 1) are in sturt 2) would change their vote based on the public service stuff

the seat was very close last time.

I know the areas around Tea Tree Gully are heavily populated by PS, both federal and state.

The problem is also that many people in the Private sector see Duttons plans as inevitably impacting the private sector, making WFH less likely, so they also change their vote. (mainly female voters who apparently have benefited most from WFH, LNP already has a female voter problem, so just seems to make it worse.)

 

[Fire]

I'm not going to do a seat by seat rundown as I am not that big a nerd.

But I think Labour will win a bigger majority, probably a couple of seats but nothing shocking. Though I think there is an outside chance it becomes a landslide.

 

[Dazzler9]

4 seat majority to Labor, Dutton ousted from Dickson.

 

[Jascave]

4 seat majority to Labor, Dutton ousted from Dickson.

Peter Dutton losing his seat of Dickson won't have the same impact compared to John Howard being defeated in his seat of Bennelong to Labor's Maxine McKew in 2007.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Peter Dutton losing his seat of Dickson won't have the same impact compared to John Howard being defeated in his seat of Bennelong to Labor's Maxine McKew in 2007.

Disagree, though it depends on what impact you're referring to.

Howard was PM for 11 years and spent a combined 17 years as PM or Treasurer. Several more years as opposition leader. His legacy from decades in the top offices in the country was already written and while the way he ultimately departed was a bit embarrassing, he'd had his day. And history will show, there were several future Liberal PMs in Parliament by the time he departed.

If he loses, Dutton, on the other hand will depart with the knowledge that he will never be PM (or Treasurer), despite appearing to be days/weeks away from the top job, not once, but twice. Furthermore, it's always a lot easier in hindsight, but at a party level, he'll leave without an obvious future Liberal PM in Parliament: Hastie...? Taylor...? Geez I'd say Frydenberg's about as good a bet as anyone, the way it currently stands.

 

[Rotayjay]

I'll go with:

Labor 73
Coalition 61
Other 16

Labor to get close to majority, a crossbencher or two to lose their seats, cancelled out by other gains, Coalition to pick up a few Labor seats but nowhere near enough.

 

[Rotayjay]

Disagree, though it depends on what impact you're referring to.

Howard was PM for 11 years and spent a combined 17 years as PM or Treasurer. Several more years as opposition leader. His legacy from decades in the top offices in the country was already written and while the way he ultimately departed was a bit embarrassing, he'd had his day. And history will show, there were several future Liberal PMs in Parliament by the time he departed.

If he loses, Dutton, on the other hand will depart with the knowledge that he will never be PM (or Treasurer), despite appearing to be days/weeks away from the top job, not once, but twice. Furthermore, it's always a lot easier in hindsight, but at a party level, he'll leave without an obvious future Liberal PM in Parliament: Hastie...? Taylor...? Geez I'd say Frydenberg's about as good a bet as anyone, the way it currently stands.

One political journalist (I think it was Laura Tingle) wrote in approximately 2019 that elections aren't just about the policies that win a mandate, but the policies that lose and never see the light of day again. Dutton doesn't necessarily have to lose his seat for his brand of dumb, supposedly tough but flip-flopping MAGA crap to be put in history's rubbish bin.

 

[Barrybran]

I'm expecting a minority Labor government with a swing away from Labor/LNP toward minor parties and independents. Greens/Teals to be the big winners with One Nation/Trumpet of Idiots also doing better than expected.

 

[schneebly111]

Dutton doesn't necessarily have to lose his seat for his brand of dumb, supposedly tough but flip-flopping MAGA crap to be put in history's rubbish bin.

Strongly doubt it. The number one talking point on Sky After Dark if the Liberals lose will be “Dutton was too Woke! Dutton was too leftist! We need to go further right” as it is after every election loss.

There’s no moderates left any more and branches are made up of solid conservative boomers so they aren’t going to preselect moderates.

Dutton’s problem is firstly he’s unappealing and unliked, and he tied the campaign too close to MAGA (Jacinta and the hat).

They get a leader like Hastie, younger, more polished but still conservative. They can run the same policies but delivered in a more gentle way and with less linking to Trump.

To stop the thread drift I’m not going to bother with a seat prediction until a day or two before (a week is a long time in politics). I suspect the Libs and the media will run a last ditch “the boats are coming back under Labor!” 2022 style fear message at the very end so it’s fresh in the minds of voters on election day.

 

[magpies2013]

I think this election will be a lot closer than what the polls and bookies are expecting. I think Brespill is the most accurate with only a 4% gap between The Alp and Coalition. Redbridge YouGov and Roy Morgan have Alp with a 7-10% lead which I find hard to believe

 

[Juddism]

Sadly Albo will win, Australians are not too bright, let's hope that the consolation prize is the total defeat of all Greens and Teals candidates. Dutton has blown this election with a poor campaign and we will be stuck with these incompetents for another 3 years. Bowen, Watt, Marles, Chalmers, Wong, Gallagher and the king bunny of them all Albo himself. The mind boggles!

We've been stuck with LNP for 20 of the last 29 years, and you're saying it's ALP fault, **** off.

 

[DaRick]

I think this election will be a lot closer than what the polls and bookies are expecting. I think Brespill is the most accurate with only a 4% gap between The Alp and Coalition. Redbridge YouGov and Roy Morgan have Alp with a 7-10% lead which I find hard to believe

The LNP would have to get real lucky with preference allocations and seat-by-seat 2PP for this to be particularly close.

It's difficult for me to imagine people looking at Dutton and going, "Gee that guy looks like he'd randomly assault me. Imma vote for him", unless they're committed LNP voters.

 

[Vindicater]

Labor 76
Coalition 56
Greens 3
Independents 15

 

[kaiserchief13]

How is Labor favourite in the betting? Unbelievable how can people not want change - look at cost of living, look at wages not going up, look at interest rates

 

[nut]

How is Labor favourite in the betting? Unbelievable how can people not want change - look at cost of living, look at wages not going up, look at interest rates

Because people are t stupid and realise cost of living is a world wide issue

 

[Dirty_banchez]

I asked my taxi driver what passengers had been telling him. He said majority of his passengers don't like Labor or Libs.

Hung parliament for mine. Teals to keep taking ground and Libs to do better than the current polls are predicting. There's a lot of anger regarding cost of living.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Because people are t stupid and realise cost of living is a world wide issue

Woolies and Coles price fixing is a world wide issue too is it?

 

[masai tu]

The Libs have had three years to come up with policy yet this whole campaign has had the feel of a student knocking out three thousand words on the night before it's due.

From what I've seen, the Libs are going strong on the "negatives" campaign. Very little mention of what new policies they have to show.

Negative campaign's only work in small doses, not basing your whole campaign on it.

 

[masai tu]

Disagree, though it depends on what impact you're referring to.

Howard was PM for 11 years and spent a combined 17 years as PM or Treasurer. Several more years as opposition leader. His legacy from decades in the top offices in the country was already written and while the way he ultimately departed was a bit embarrassing, he'd had his day. And history will show, there were several future Liberal PMs in Parliament by the time he departed.

If he loses, Dutton, on the other hand will depart with the knowledge that he will never be PM (or Treasurer), despite appearing to be days/weeks away from the top job, not once, but twice. Furthermore, it's always a lot easier in hindsight, but at a party level, he'll leave without an obvious future Liberal PM in Parliament: Hastie...? Taylor...? Geez I'd say Frydenberg's about as good a bet as anyone, the way it currently stands.

Hastie is damaged goods, too many ultra conservative comments would come back to stymy him as a leader.

 

[masai tu]

How is Labor favourite in the betting? Unbelievable how can people not want change - look at cost of living, look at wages not going up, look at interest rates

Interesting question, but look at the leaders :-

Voldermort - personality of a house brick.

Albo - he can at least smile without a cue card.