2025 Federal Election - Prediction Thread

[Gough]

I really hate gambling ads.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Here’s a good article to consider regarding how One Nation will be a greater help to the Libs this year vs last election

Coalition counts on One Nation preferences to narrow gap

Almost nine in 10 preferences from One Nation and other right-wing minor parties are flowing towards the Coalition in some heartland Labor seats it is targeting.

www.afr.com

I agree that a lot of polls using last election preferences are understating the right wing to LNP preference share.

Enjoying your contributions schneebly111 and you're making a lot of sense in terms of why people who either want the ALP or anyone but Dutton to win ought to remain a bit wary. Interesting theory about why people shouldn't automatically assume the Teals would partner with Labor, despite the Libs attacking them in every seat.

With the One Nation preference stuff, the AFR article is locked, but I guess I just figure if there was little to no collateral damage to doing that in the traditional mid/inner suburban Lib heartland, they would have done it 10-15 years ago, before people had an easy "I like the Libs economic policies, but can't stomach their social backwardness and I can't vote Labor/Greens" alternative in mist of those electorates.

I can't see how buddying up with One Nation doesn't hurt them in places like Kooyong, Chisholm and Goldstein and electorates with similar demographics in NSW and other states. Because that's the only reason I can think of as to why they didn't do this years ago. Now, to me, it just seems like desperation.

 

[Vindicater]

I just see the one nation votes growing at the expense of the Coalition vote, not Labors.

Unless the coalition hit 38-40 on primary they ain't winning.

 

[pjcrows]

If the Coalition primary is lower than 38ish, its very difficult for them to leapfrog Labor even with a good share of One Nation preferences, considering they will struggle to get the Teal seats back, too.

 

[Falconista]

My prediction is ALP 75.
Be interesting to see how few seats are won at this election on primary vote alone. Could be down to half a dozen only.

 

[Jascave]

Watch for the moment on Sky News when Peter Dutton concedes defeat to PM Anthony Albanese. The Sky News pundits on the election night panel like Peta Credlin, Andrew Bolt, Paul Murray will go into total meltdown and blame everyone (ie the ABC, the Guardian Australia) but Dutton for the Coalition's election defeat.

 

[Fire]

Watch for the moment on Sky News when Peter Dutton concedes defeat to PM Anthony Albanese. The Sky News pundits on the election night panel like Peta Credlin, Andrew Bolt, Paul Murray will go into total meltdown and blame everyone (ie the ABC, the Guardian Australia) but Dutton for the Coalition's election defeat.

Oh, they'll blame him alright. For being too woke.

 

[Bomber32]

Labor to win between 75-78 seats.

2PP:
Labor - 53%
LNP - 47%

 

[Dazzler9]

 

[Dirty_banchez]

View attachment 2301885

Labor Minority looks a worthy play.

 

[Freomaniac]

I'll have a crack for now, honestly just expecting something similar to the status quo at this point.

ALP 77
LNP 56
GREEN 4
IND/OTHER 12

Well in the last election in 2022 it was

ALP 77 seats
LNP 58 seats
GREEN 4 seats
INDEPENDENT 10 seats
KATTER 1 seat
CENTRAL ALLIANCE 1 seat.

I some how see a similar results like 2022.

Labor party get majority government with the bare minimum 76 seats.

Coalition somehow getting 59 or 60 seats.

Greens get 3 or 4 seats. (Teal) Independents gets 9 or 10 seats.

Katter gets 1 seat. One Nation gets 1 seat

 

[Freomaniac]

Woolies and Coles price fixing is a world wide issue too is it?

Mate I live in South Australia . There is Aldi and IGA as alternatives.

If you don't like Woolworths or Coles, the local alternative is Foodland.

Coke and Pepsi are unhealthy. Yet they are competition.

The alternative to sugar free soft drinks is to buy the generic Coles or Woolworths brands.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Oh, they'll blame him alright. For being too woke.

Dutton wasn't a true Scotsman.

 

[Aura]

I’ll mimic the first person to quote me or DM their ballot preferences in order otherwise I’m voting whoever is in bed with Rennick or Hanson. I have no interest in this but have less interest in being fined.

 

[apollo_creed]

wtf is the Citizens party?

 

[Nikita Blue]

Labor 78
Coalition 55
Independents 12
Greens 5

Happy election eve comrades.

 

[Dirty_banchez]

Tehan is in real trouble in Wannon. Any seats lost from Labor to Libs will be offset by losses to the Independents.

We are on the cusp of a historical election.

 

[Tadpole]

wtf is the Citizens party?

Australian Citizens Party - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[SSwans2011]

Woolies and Coles price fixing is a world wide issue too is it?

Well, yeah. Just change the name of the retailers and the sentiment would remain true pretty much as far as almost the entire western world is concerned.

 

[Anzacpaul]

How is Labor favourite in the betting? Unbelievable how can people not want change - look at cost of living, look at wages not going up, look at interest rates

If you think any of things will improve under Peter Dutton, I've got a bridge to sell you.

 

[aCunningPlan]

How is Labor favourite in the betting? Unbelievable how can people not want change - look at cost of living, look at wages not going up, look at interest rates

Three things. What change is being offered by the other side, what did Dutton do over the last three years, and what did the libs last do in office?

Libs are offering a one off tax cut while rejecting a permanent cut. Scrapping tafe funding, paid placements, and hecs relief. They want the taxpayer to pay for bosses long lunches, and want to give back to bosses the ability to punish workers if they dont work outside of contracted hours. They plan to slash whole departments in Canberra with no transparency about which ones that will be wound up. And the biggest risk that will go down as the bigbest own goal in campaigning, they want to sign us up to nuclear.

Over the last three years they initially rejected the changes to the stage three tax cuts only to realise working and middle class voters didnt want to subsidise the rich as the libs had planned. They teamed up with the greens to block any housing legislation. They rejected energy relief.

What did they do last time they were in govt? They doubled the debt before they pandemic, they never delivered a surplus, instead choosing to buy votes at every opportunity instead of paying down debt. They told women they were lucky not to be met with bullets. They totally undermined the entire concept of responsible government by having secret ministers. They said low wages are a feature of liberal policy. And they left office with intesrest rates on the rise and inflation at six percent.

The average Australian voter is more intelligent than the average American voter. We dont just judge the govt on the previous term. We also lokk at how the opposition has acted in that same period, how they acted when they were last in govt, and much to Dutton's dismay we also look to the future.

 

[Fire]

The average Australian voter is more intelligent than the average American voter.

I'd caution against this, as you could easily get blindsided.

No, the average Australian voters is not more intelligent than the average American voter.

The average Australian voter is simply less engaged than the average American voter, which protects them from rabbit holes and bubbles that they could easily otherwise fall into if they were more engaged.

It's also worth mentioning that because of compulsory voting, you need to appeal to disengaged people too, which means the major parties can't get too excited, which means their 'base' doesn't get too excited either.

Don't confuse this for superior intelligence, is all.

 

[aCunningPlan]

I'd caution against this, as you could easily get blindsided.

No, the average Australian voters is not more intelligent than the average American voter.

The average Australian voter is simply less engaged than the average American voter, which protects them from rabbit holes and bubbles that they could easily otherwise fall into if they were more engaged.

It's also worth mentioning that because of compulsory voting, you need to appeal to disengaged people too, which means the major parties can't get too excited, which means their 'base' doesn't get too excited either.

Don't confuse this for superior intelligence, is all.

Im sorry, but a disengaged voter is much more intelligent than the mass of conspiracy theorists that turn US elections. I know plenty of incredibly smart people who are disengaged here because in their experience they personally dont see either side as an existential threat...I dont agree but because of our system they still have their say and its to our benefit. A disengaged voter has a much better bullshit detector than US extremists.

 

[Freomaniac]

Cost of living went up before Labor got elected. One of the first things Scomo did when he got elected was reduce penalty rates for retail workers. Then pushed for a parliamentary pay rise. Compared to Albo who did increase minimum wage, when he first got in. Once again Interest rates were going up well before Labour got into office.

Dutton’s Nuclear plan is going to put Australia further into debt. With Trump being Trump, it is highly probable that the world ends up in a major recession/depression. The last thing Australia needs currently is frivolous spending on something we don’t need. so I’m happy for not wanting change, as I see Dutton’s vision much more damaging.

Good points

 

[Fire]

Im sorry, but a disengaged voter is much more intelligent than the mass of conspiracy theorists that turn US elections. I know plenty of incredibly smart people who are disengaged here because in their experience they personally dont see either side as an existential threat...I dont agree but because of our system they still have their say and its to our benefit. A disengaged voter has a much better bullshit detector than US extremists.

You're not understanding what I'm saying. Voting over there is not compulsory so by definition those who are voting are more engaged. I admit it's speculation, but if voting over here was voluntary, the Cookers in Australia would still be voting as they are actively engaged. If turnout in Aus was similar to the US, but the far right ON/PUP/FF/Libertarian/etc voter still showed up, would go from around 10% to 20%, just by half of potential voters staying home. Which already is getting close to Trumps percentage of Americans. Now add in a 'first past the post' system which eliminates minor parties and transfer them all to the Liberals, and then add on the rusted on Liberal Party vote who will turn up regardless on who is leading them, and you get prime minister Trump.

It has nothing to do with intelligence. It has everything to do with the system incentivising disingaged voters to participate, thereby lowering the AVERAGE voters engagement.