Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[Purple Suit]

The growth of AFL in brisbane should be reason enough to have a team in the northern parts of QLD. And Gold Coast's suns crowds aren't that small. Yes, they only draw around 18k, but it's still more than the titans. So that reason alone says that they're successful, considering they're doing better than their competitor. Just build a boutique 20k stadium in Townsville or Cairns, and you probably get 75% of that capacity. And while a crowd of 15k doesn't sound too great, it's a lot better than having 20k in a 50k marvel stadiums like you will see with some victorian games with lower drawing clubs.

Why not just do WA3 instead though? No stadium costs, should average 30k attendance at home year 1. Two 60k sellouts a year.

Easy money.

Gold coast was 50-50 before the afl team went there. But even still, it lacks the population and support. They play in a tiny stadium with tiny crowds. Average crowd of 22 thousand this year (it would be much smaller if we only counted home games). Crowds hasnt grown one bit since their first season. Cant really claim a grow the game argument in regards to gold coast. Compare this to north which is melbournes least populated side and performing terribly and they average 30 thousand. If any team should leave the comp its gold coast before north. Although gws probably has even less claims then gold coast to still being in the comp.

Sunshine coast and nth queensland are far far worse in terms of population and afl support then the gold coast. Where would you even put a sufficient sized stadium. They would struggle to get 10 thousand people to games. Actually i think they would struggle some weeks to get 5000. It would be ridiculous.

North get 30k attendance home due to playing other vic teams. Being terrible hasn’t helped though, which effects attendance of all clubs when they are down.

 

[Roylion]

St Kilda are fine, but teams like North will look like a major blight on the competition in 10/15 years time.

Not if they're close to the top of the ladder.

You will have teams like brisbane, Sydney, wc, frem, adel and PA selling out huge stadiums at home each week. Even smaller teams like the new tasmanian one and gold coast should be close to selling out their much smaller stadiums. Then you will have north playing in a 50k stadium with a crowd of 15k or something.

North games against Melbourne-based sides at Marvel Stadium have drawn 34,406, 28,768, 46,373 and 35,439 so far this season. Their match against Sydney at Marvel Stadium drew 31,955. That's with North close to the bottom of the ladder and after several seasons of poor performance. A rise up the ladder will see crowds to their home games rise.

North's existence will only make the AFL look more poorer in the future,

That's debatable.

so unless you move them to a smaller stadium, their existence should be up for debate.

If an existing club is solvent and debt free why should their participation in the AFL be up for debate?

They have the smallest fanbase in victoria, they draw almost no one to their away games

What do you mean by 'almost no one'? Are you talking about the crowd North drew against the Gold Coast at Barossa Oval in South Australia? Is that really a realistic indication of North's away crowds?

and they have flirted with relocation multiple times in the past.

Have they? I only recall one possible relocation that was considered seriously.

 

[Roylion]

The advantages of merging clubs is that you create a fanbase in Victoria for when you travel there.

Not if you merge two Victorian clubs. Why would a Victorian club want to merge with a non-Victorian club?

That's one of the reasons why the bears merged with Fitzroy, because we didn't have any victorian fans at the time.

Rebranded to look more like Fitzroy. Certainly that has a positive impact on their Victorian membership

 

[ibd77]

NQ and Northern Territory couldn't be anymore different, and lumping those two areas as a single team would spell disaster.

Just like Greater Western Sydney and Canberra?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Just like Greater Western Sydney and Canberra?

Exactly. Both areas would be doing much better with their own team rather than a time-share team.

 

[LordLucifer]

North Melbourne and St Kilda aren't going anywhere. In the ludicrous "Canberra Kangaroos" proposal suggested above, how would the AFL make up the 18 additional games per season required to fulfil the Marvel Stadium contract?

When I read posts like this I really worry about the future of mankind.

 

[LordLucifer]

So Canberra Kangaroos in Saints colours? What do North supporters get out of it?

I think it’s too late. Relocation attempts or nothing.

I’d try and get the Roos or Saints to Canberra then Perth 3 as team 20 but if unsuccessful, go Canberra as team 20.

I think if you could do it all over again: 16 teams:

Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong, West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Western Sydney (Bulldogs), Brisbane (Fitzroy relocation), Gold Coast (Sharks), Tasmania, Canberra (Kangaroos in Saints colours).

16 teams and then leave it at that unless the NT ever became viable with a good business case then expand to a max of 18.

As if the AFL are going to go backwards ??

Currently 18 teams with a 19th on the horizon, they aren't cutting 3 teams, they will want to grow by another 3 teams to 22.

It's all about revenue for them, more clubs means more games with bigger broadcast deals, sponsorships etc.

 

[Walshawk]

I think of the Gold Coast as a bit like Vegas.

A tourist strip that nobody took seriously, but the population has continued to boom, and now leagues are lining up. BBL and NBL teams are surely in the Gold Coast's future.

Increase Carrara to 35k, get the light rail and ferries to Carrara, there is so much upside for the Suns.

Getting to Cararra is a nightmare now. If (a big ‘if’) they improve PT, and start selling out games, then you might consider an expansion.

 

[Walshawk]

When I read posts like this I really worry about the future of mankind.

How so?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Greater West Brisbane has a certain ring to it.

Greater West Brisbane Bears?

Lets make it happen

Except that already has a name, Ipswich.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Why not just do WA3 instead though? No stadium costs, should average 30k attendance at home year 1. Two 60k sellouts a year.

Easy money.

Because expansion is about expanding.

WA3 is a nice option to have if you need another team to even things up, but shouldn't be used if there's another good option on the table.

It'll be a handy option to complement wherever else comes in in the Team 21/22 expansion.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

My preference would be to merge two Victorian clubs, namely St Kilda and North to keep the competition to 18 teams.St Kilda because the largest team in the local comp, Ainslie FC, sports the Saints colours and the team mascot the Kangaroos because there are so many of them around the place.

Why on earth do people suggest both a merger and relocation for the same clubs? Not even one of those things is going to happen, let alone both.

 

[Bjo187]

For what to happen? Supporters of the old clubs to start supporting the new entity? I doubt that will happen. Because players from the old team happen to be in the new team for 4-5 yearsa is not the reason why supporters would transfer their support to the new team.

The late Ian Ridley said one of his biggest mistakes in negotiating the Melbourne-Hawks merger in 1996 is that Melbourne ignored a key price of research advice in that members and supporters see as the enduring symbols of their club, their colours, the tradition [things like history, club song etc.] and the club emblem and will reject a merger if there wasn't enough of their original club's identity retained in the new entity.

In other words, members and supporters of the two original clubs will not necessarily support the new merged club.


And how will they do that?


I doubt that would happen.

A survey conducted in 1997 found that only 27% of Fitzroy supporters had switched their support to the Brisbane Lions, after Fitzroy exited in 1996.

Another estimation by a Fitzroy author after conducting hundred of interviews with supporters concluded that 40% of Fitzroy supporters were lost permanently to football, another 5% went to support another club and 5-10% of Fitzroy supporters now follow another code or lower levels of Australian Rules football. That leaves 45-50% supporting the new club. Depending on the new club's identity those figures - from supporters of the two former clubs - could be altered.



Why would they?

I think you underestimate the level of angst, vitriol and negative publicity that accompanied each of the three serious merger proposals in the late 80's and 90s and how much there would be with any future merger proposal. The AFL is well aware of this.

It's why the only merger that would work would be north and the dogs. Similar fan base, similar geographical location, roodogs are an actual breed of dog, same royal blue and white colours and the 2 smallest supporter bases. It's always made sense to me.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Sunshine Coast is full of old people and Jehovah’s Witnesses and other kooks. Rugby league dominance there too all the way up to Townsville.

Not an ideal AFL location

It also has one of Queensland's biggest new towns (Aura) and has produced a pretty big part of the Lions academy talent (Eric Hipwood, Jack Payne, Sam Marshall). There's a lot of money going into the place with a new railway line to be built for the Olympics too.

 

[Coolangatta]

Because expansion is about expanding.

WA3 is a nice option to have if you need another team to even things up, but shouldn't be used if there's another good option on the table.

It'll be a handy option to complement wherever else comes in in the Team 21/22 expansion.

I would make a similar argument for Brisbane 2.

New markets should always be the goal.

If Auckland and Newcastle are on the table in 30 years, after hypothetical secondary market success, and GC/GWS/Tassie/Canberra are going okay, I’d target them over Brisbane 2 and WA3.

If they do need a team to even things up, Brisbane 2 probably takes precedence over WA3 by then.

 

[Roylion]

It's why the only merger that would work would be north and the dogs. Similar fan base, similar geographical location, roodogs are an actual breed of dog, same royal blue and white colours and the 2 smallest supporter bases. It's always made sense to me.

It could work if the identity balance is right. North West Melbourne Bulldogs playing in red, royal blue and white with some part of the jumper having royal blue and white vertical stripes and a horizontal white stripe bordered by red and royal blue and with both the Western Oval and Arden Street as admin bases in some way could work.

However both supporter bases would have to be sold a new identity that would appeal to each.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

That's why Sunshine Coast or North Queensland makes the most sense. It has the most growth potential.

They're two very different beasts though. North Queensland obviously isn't all in one city, Cairns and Townsville are a 4.5 hour drive apart, not many people are going to do the round trip for a game of footy.

Take either Cairns or Townsville separately, and it's no contest. The Sunshine Coast is more than twice as big, and the gap is increasing. It cracked the top 5 fastest growing cities in Australia over the past 20 years, while Cairns is down at #20 and Townsville didn't even make the top 30.

30 Fastest Growing Australian Cities

Eight of the Top 10 fastest growing cities of the last 20-years are from either Victoria or Western Australia. The total national population increased from 19.7 million to 26.6 million over the 2-decades ending June 2023, a growth rate of 35 percent.

www.propertyology.com.au

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Gold coast was 50-50 before the afl team went there.

Wrong, it was still mostly a rugby league town.

But even still, it lacks the population and support. They play in a tiny stadium with tiny crowds.

Sorry we can't all have huge stadia when Aussie Rules isn't the #1 code in the state.

Average crowd of 22 thousand this year (it would be much smaller if we only counted home games).

There have only been two games at Carrara so far this year, with crowds of 16 000 and 18 000. Pretty respectable considering they were against Adelaide and Sydney, no local derby or Victorian expat factor to boost the numbers.

Crowds hasnt grown one bit since their first season.

The first season can't be compared fairly to anything else because of the novelty factor artificially boosting numbers. The crowds were around 13 500 on average in years 2 and 3, and current crowds are up from then.

Cant really claim a grow the game argument in regards to gold coast.

Yes you can, AFL Queensland says there's been a 52% growth in participation in Australian Rules on the Gold Coast since 2019. That wouldn't have been anywhere near as high without the Suns. The AFL has invested heavily in grassroots through the Suns Academy far more than they used to.

Compare this to north which is melbournes least populated side and performing terribly and they average 30 thousand. If any team should leave the comp its gold coast before north. Although gws probably has even less claims then gold coast to still being in the comp.

So we're just going to forget the fact that they've played against bigger sides based in the same city? How much would you be willing to bet that more than half the crowd at North's home game against Carlton were actually North supporters?

Where would you even put a sufficient sized stadium...

There's space in both Maroochydore and Caloundra for one.

They would struggle to get 10 thousand people to games. Actually i think they would struggle some weeks to get 5000. It would be ridiculous.

They'd struggle now, but by 2046 the Sunshine Coast is going to have 540 000 people, which is enough for a team. I'd have Canberra well above them for team 20, but the Sunshine Coast is a reasonable shout in another 15-20 years.

 

[Coolangatta]

It could work if the identity balance is right. North West Melbourne Bulldogs playing in red, royal blue and white with some part of the jumper having royal blue and white vertical stripes and a horizontal white stripe bordered by red and royal blue and with both the Western Oval and Arden Street as admin bases in some way could work.

However both supporter bases would have to be sold a new identity that would appeal to each.

Roodogs would be better as the mascot blends the Roos and Dogs.

It probably wouldn’t work but it’s the only remaining all VIC merger that could.

 

[GenericUsername202]

20 team comp, 20 rounds. Each team plays each other once. Simple as.
Adelaide Crows
Brisbane Lions
Canberra Giants (Move GWS to Canberra and have north move to sydney)
Carlton
Collingwood
Essendon
Fremantle
Geelong
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Richmond
South Sydney Kangaroos (better naming pattern than GWS, Huge area in sydney, and Sydney teams formed through relocations have proven to be successful due to the swans)
St Kilda
Sunshine Coast Sharks (co-collaboration with the southport sharks, and have them play in southport 2 times a season)
Sydney Swans
Tasmanian Devils
West Coast Eagles
Western Bulldogs


My only worry is that having 3 teams in QLD and 3 in NSW with 2 in WA and SA might not be right given those are heartland states. But you can't ignore the populations in QLD and NSW. Although, Canberra is its own state, so you can really only say its 2 there.

Also, to anyone thinking there should be a darwin team. Hardwick said his players lost around 6kg during their game against the bulldogs. The conditions there are not viable as well as the retention would be horrible. No way would a Darwin team work. Just have the suns go up there 2 times a season and have the sunshine coast team play on the coast during those 2 weeks. Problem solved.

 

[Coolangatta]

20 team comp, 20 rounds. Each team plays each other once. Simple as.
Adelaide Crows
Brisbane Lions
Canberra Giants (Move GWS to Canberra and have north move to sydney)
Carlton
Collingwood
Essendon
Fremantle
Geelong
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Richmond
South Sydney Kangaroos (better naming pattern than GWS, Huge area in sydney, and Sydney teams formed through relocations have proven to be successful due to the swans)
St Kilda
Sunshine Coast Sharks (co-collaboration with the southport sharks, and have them play in southport 2 times a season)
Sydney Swans
Tasmanian Devils
West Coast Eagles
Western Bulldogs


My only worry is that having 3 teams in QLD and 3 in NSW with 2 in WA and SA might not be right given those are heartland states. But you can't ignore the populations in QLD and NSW. Although, Canberra is its own state, so you can really only say its 2 there.

Why not North Sydney Kangaroos so they can still be North?

 

[GenericUsername202]

Why not North Sydney Kangaroos so they can still be North?

North Sydney doesn't really have the population that south would, so south makes a lot more sense. And the South Sydney Rabbitohs are a huge club, so there's a huge sporting culture there that i think would make a new team strive there.

Although, if you really wanted to pull something crazy, merge bulldogs and kangaroos, and make a team in bankstown and take the bulldogs name, so you'll have an AFL and NRL team in bankstown called the bulldogs, haha.

 

[Coolangatta]

North Sydney doesn't really have the population that south would, so south makes a lot more sense. And the South Sydney Rabbitohs are a huge club, so there's a huge sporting culture there that i think would make a new team strive there.

Although, if you really wanted to pull something crazy, merge bulldogs and kangaroos, and make a team in bankstown and take the bulldogs name, so you'll have an AFL and NRL team in bankstown called the bulldogs, haha.

Maybe send north here to WA, North Perth Kangaroos; Saints to South Sydney.

Not sure how well the Roos would be received over here, though.

 

[Bjo187]

Why not North Sydney Kangaroos so they can still be North?

North Sydney is the biggest population centre in Australia without a professional sporting club, with over 1 million people.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Maybe send north here to WA, North Perth Kangaroos; Saints to South Sydney.

Not sure how well the Roos would be received over here, though.

Already 8k North members there before a home game is even played.

I assume that would climb with actual game-access memberships to sell. Will be interesting to see if we can get an updated number.