Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[Purple Suit]

Because expansion is about expanding.

WA3 is a nice option to have if you need another team to even things up, but shouldn't be used if there's another good option on the table.

It'll be a handy option to complement wherever else comes in in the Team 21/22 expansion.

You only expand into new markets when existing markets have supply. WA is most under supplied sporting market in the country, hence why all our teams are financially stable. We are close to capacity now from a seating point of view and I expect us to be at capacity before we even get another AFL team.

The AFL generate 1/2 their revenue from attendance so by not servicing this market, and going to another greenfield location, you miss out on a lot of dollars. They will still watch on TV but all other existing markets already have a team to watch on TV.

QLD3 would be a very strange move considering the costs involved & that Brisbane is going to have a big stadium to fill in the future anyway.

 

[Purple Suit]

20 team comp, 20 rounds. Each team plays each other once. Simple as.
Adelaide Crows
Brisbane Lions
Canberra Giants (Move GWS to Canberra and have north move to sydney)
Carlton
Collingwood
Essendon
Fremantle
Geelong
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Richmond
South Sydney Kangaroos (better naming pattern than GWS, Huge area in sydney, and Sydney teams formed through relocations have proven to be successful due to the swans)
St Kilda
Sunshine Coast Sharks (co-collaboration with the southport sharks, and have them play in southport 2 times a season)
Sydney Swans
Tasmanian Devils
West Coast Eagles
Western Bulldogs


My only worry is that having 3 teams in QLD and 3 in NSW with 2 in WA and SA might not be right given those are heartland states. But you can't ignore the populations in QLD and NSW. Although, Canberra is its own state, so you can really only say its 2 there.

Also, to anyone thinking there should be a darwin team. Hardwick said his players lost around 6kg during their game against the bulldogs. The conditions there are not viable as well as the retention would be horrible. No way would a Darwin team work. Just have the suns go up there 2 times a season and have the sunshine coast team play on the coast during those 2 weeks. Problem solved.

Both Sydney and Brisbane are only just financially viable after 40 years in the comp and with big periods of success. They get distributions on par with Bulldogs, Saints, North & Melbourne. The expansion teams put very close to those teams are battling and the AFL have to prop them up with an extra 10m+ a year.

Putting in a third team in those markets makes zero sense. If you could convert rugby fans over, you would see it with the existing teams. Every section of a city doesn't need a team if the one team has spare seats available.

 

[Freomaniac]

So looks like it might be a North Queensland / Northern Territory combined club to form the 20th reading between the lines of Andrew Dillion's statements. Cairns, Darwin and Alice Springs to share the games around. I'm guessing no new stadiums required for this venture?

North Queensland could work. Home games in Townsville and Cairns

 

[Coolangatta]

You only expand into new markets when existing markets have supply. WA is most under supplied sporting market in the country, hence why all our teams are financially stable. We are close to capacity now from a seating point of view and I expect us to be at capacity before we even get another AFL team.

Part of the reason for that is because they didn’t build Optus to 80k+ capacity.

But hell, if we can have 10 teams in Victoria, I dare say bring in Canberra as team 20 then a few years later the Joondalup Falcons and East Perth Royals. An old WAFL rivalry and 2x games at Optus per week.

Then around 2050s a Sunshine Coast (with a few blockbusters in Brisbane) team and Norwood.

24. Go berserko.

 

[Purple Suit]

Part of the reason for that is because they didn’t build Optus to 80k+ capacity.

But hell, if we can have 10 teams in Victoria, I dare say bring in Canberra as team 20 then a few years later the Joondalup Falcons and East Perth Royals. An old WAFL rivalry and 2x games at Optus per week.

Then around 2050s a Sunshine Coast (with a few blockbusters in Brisbane) team and Norwood.

24. Go berserko.

It's still the 2nd biggest AFL ground in the country and third biggest over all but yep, they probably should have made it bigger. Apparently we can add an extra 10,000 seats within the current design but I assume they will just nose bleed. Got 61,118 in on GF day.

Rather than adding another 16% by building more seats, we'd be better off adding 50% extra capacity with another game every fortnight.

 

[Roylion]

North Sydney doesn't really have the population that south would, so south makes a lot more sense. And the South Sydney Rabbitohs are a huge club, so there's a huge sporting culture there that i think would make a new team strive there.

I doubt that. Two Sydney teams is quite enough.

Although, if you really wanted to pull something crazy, merge bulldogs and kangaroos, and make a team in bankstown and take the bulldogs name, so you'll have an AFL and NRL team in bankstown called the bulldogs, haha.

There's obviously no possible chance that would ever happen. You're asking two clubs to merge AND relocate. I don't see the point of even suggesting it as a scenario.

 

[Canberra Pear]

You only expand into new markets when existing markets have supply.

Says who? They expanded to Sydney before Perth. Brisbane before Adelaide. A second team in Sydney before Tasmania.

But you've also got the incredibly under-serviced, yet already existing, market in Canberra.

 

[Purple Suit]

Says who? They expanded to Sydney before Perth. Brisbane before Adelaide. A second team in Sydney before Tasmania.

But you've also got the incredibly under-serviced, yet already existing, market in Canberra.

It's because they were the VFL, WA and SA had existing competitions in the WAFL & SANFL they had to compete with. They went in Sydney and Brisbane because they thought they would be easier but it wasn't and they nearly went under till WA & SA steadied the finances. It's taken 40 years to get them to the current level which is on par with the minnow Melbourne teams, it's not a quick process.

It's the same with Canberra, it has other codes they have to compete with in a small city. It's not going to be as easy as adding more supply to a constrained market in a much larger city.

 

[qlderlions]

North Melbourne and St Kilda aren't going anywhere. In the ludicrous "Canberra Kangaroos" proposal suggested above, how would the AFL make up the 18 additional games per season required to fulfil the Marvel Stadium contract?

Agree relocations unlikely (not advocating for relocation) however contract with Marvel is irrelevant now as the AFL owns the stadium outright. It is a contract with itself. It can shift the split of games between the MCG and Marvel going forward.

 

[parano1a]

contract with Marvel is irrelevant now as the AFL owns the stadium outright. It is a contract with itself.

It is still relevant as third parties such as catering companies, security, corporate hospitality etc are budgeted for a set number of events per year. Contracts can be renegotiated, sure, but the AFL still needs to run the stadium as a viable business. If the number of AFL games held there is drastically reduced, there is an economic impact to consider.

 

[Canberra Pear]

It's the same with Canberra, it has other codes they have to compete with in a small city. It's not going to be as easy as adding more supply to a constrained market in a much larger city.

Depends on your definition of constrained.

More unrepresented AFL fans than any other city that could finally unite behind a single team, or a third team getting the scraps.

Yes, Canberra has teams in other codes. But you're much more likely to support two teams in multiple codes than you are to support two from the same league (in the same city). The majority of NRL fans I know in Canberra also follow an AFL team too.

 

[Gibbke]

Jesus, do you guys understand the point of creating an AFL team? It's to create growth. There were almost 0 AFL fans in Sydney and Brisbane before the lions and swans came along too, likewise, you can make all the jokes about gold coast, but Gold Coast is genuinely a 50/50 split these days between league and AFL. That's why Sunshine Coast or North Queensland makes the most sense. It has the most growth potential.

There's a balance between growth and tapping a market. I live between Cairns & Townsville - reports of AFL strength are greatly exaggerated. Townsville is utterly dominated by the Cowboys - nothing will ever touch them. Cairns is a bit more split, but you will find 7 team comps in country areas around Australia who would wipe the floor with them. No one talks about footy, no one follows it, and there is a lot of derision. And at the end of the day, what benefits are gained by an AFL side? Not tv rights - the agitation from Tasmania to get a team is tempered in AFL head office minds by the lack of bargaining power for tv rights they bring to negotiations...but they're the only region in this country with this combination. NQ doesn't have the interest, so with no political pressure and no tv value, there's no reason for the AFL to bring them in. They're happy to call them a development zone and farm them off to the existing AFL franchises...way easier and cheaper...

 

[Coolangatta]

There's a balance between growth and tapping a market. I live between Cairns & Townsville - reports of AFL strength are greatly exaggerated. Townsville is utterly dominated by the Cowboys - nothing will ever touch them. Cairns is a bit more split, but you will find 7 team comps in country areas around Australia who would wipe the floor with them. No one talks about footy, no one follows it, and there is a lot of derision. And at the end of the day, what benefits are gained by an AFL side? Not tv rights - the agitation from Tasmania to get a team is tempered in AFL head office minds by the lack of bargaining power for tv rights they bring to negotiations...but they're the only region in this country with this combination. NQ doesn't have the interest, so with no political pressure and no tv value, there's no reason for the AFL to bring them in. They're happy to call them a development zone and farm them off to the existing AFL franchises...way easier and cheaper...

Isn’t this the problem with Canberra, though? The pressure? They have the numbers, but it seems like what the AFL is doing at the moment is sitting back to see who bangs the drums the loudest for team 20.

So far, it’s the NT. Someone else has to otherwise it’s like going to a one man action.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Isn’t this the problem with Canberra, though? The pressure? They have the numbers, but it seems like what the AFL is doing at the moment is sitting back to see who bangs the drums the loudest for team 20.

So far, it’s the NT. Someone else has to otherwise it’s like going to a one man action.

The AFL might be hoping for a bit of an arms race. Even without them getting a team, ungraded stadiums in Darwin and Cairns are still good for the game up there.

 

[Coolangatta]

The AFL might be hoping for a bit of an arms race. Even without them getting a team, ungraded stadiums in Darwin and Cairns are still good for the game up there.

Yeah it makes it more enticing for a team to sign a deal to play 3-4 games up there.

I’d like to see North commit to 3-4 games per year in Darwin and the Hawks 3 in Cairns, although Perth could prove to be lucrative for North. They should trial a home game at Optus against Collingwood, see how they go with a neutral crowd.

 

[Gibbke]

Isn’t this the problem with Canberra, though? The pressure? They have the numbers, but it seems like what the AFL is doing at the moment is sitting back to see who bangs the drums the loudest for team 20.

So far, it’s the NT. Someone else has to otherwise it’s like going to a one man action.

I'd imagine they're sitting there waiting, like you say, but they won't do anything until the place they actually want is banging the drum...and not necessarily loudest, but enough. They don't care about pressure from outsiders, they are only interested in financial arguments...Tassie proved that. Even then, there's nothing to suggest they even want Team 20, as it's only a discussion when they gave the thumbs up to 19. Everyone else is saying it, but the AFL has been very quiet. What is certain is they don't want Tassie, for reasons we've always known and they were forced into. I'd give it a few years, to see if the Tasmanian bid fails - the stadium is a Damocles sword - and if they don't get the team onfield you will hear nothing about expansion for a very long time...

 

[Coolangatta]

I'd imagine they're sitting there waiting, like you say, but they won't do anything until the place they actually want is banging the drum...and not necessarily loudest, but enough. They don't care about pressure from outsiders, they are only interested in financial arguments...Tassie proved that. Even then, there's nothing to suggest they even want Team 20, as it's only a discussion when they gave the thumbs up to 19. Everyone else is saying it, but the AFL has been very quiet. What is certain is they don't want Tassie, for reasons we've always known and they were forced into. I'd give it a few years, to see if the Tasmanian bid fails - the stadium is a Damocles sword - and if they don't get the team onfield you will hear nothing about expansion for a very long time...

Oh for sure. If there’s no Tasmania, there’s not going to be a 19th or 20th team until the current struggling clubs become stronger, 2040s at the earliest.

But 20 is almost a certainty if Tassie goes ahead. I’d like to think Canberra is the one the AFL wants, but they’re playing with fire if they stay quiet. Maybe they’ll make some more noise after Manuka gets upgraded.

And even if WA3 is the AFL preference, I don’t see the WAFC changing their stance anytime soon. They don’t want it, even if some people do.

 

[Coolangatta]

Old article but they claim the WAFC would want a 3rd WA team to average 48k and have 60k members from the get go to be viable… which is not going to happen. That would take them at least 10 years to get those numbers.

Although, this article also claims cold water from the WAFC means Darwin is the favourite for team 20 as they believe the AFL will not take Canberra away from GWS.

No Thank You - WA Rejects Third AFL Team - The Mongrel Punt

The West Australia Football Commission has squashed the chances of a third WA team in the AFL. The Wolfman explores the reasons why.

themongrelpunt.com

 

[Bjo187]

Oh for sure. If there’s no Tasmania, there’s not going to be a 19th or 20th team until the current struggling clubs become stronger, 2040s at the earliest.

But 20 is almost a certainty if Tassie goes ahead. I’d like to think Canberra is the one the AFL wants, but they’re playing with fire if they stay quiet. Maybe they’ll make some more noise after Manuka gets upgraded.

And even if WA3 is the AFL preference, I don’t see the WAFC changing their stance anytime soon. They don’t want it, even if some people do.

The WAFC now called football w.a has a relatively new chairman that isn't closed off to the idea of W.A 3. I think I posted the article on here a few months back, it was in the West Australian from memory.

 

[Coolangatta]

The WAFC now called football w.a has a relatively new chairman that isn't closed off to the idea of W.A 3. I think I posted the article on here a few months back, it was in the West Australian from memory.

Yeah come to think of it that does sound familiar, think I saw the article you posted.

Do you think if WAFC changes its tune WA3 will be front runners?

They might. The Giants are going to have to want to cut the cord with Canberra. If they insist on staying, the ACT government has to say, “Thanks, but no thanks, it’s time we had our own team.”

I guess it’s too soon for those contract renewal talks to come up yet.

Edit: Can the AFL force or pressure the Giants to move all their home games to Sydney in the future? I’d be trying to do that if I were them and to get the Suns out of Darwin.

 

[Bjo187]

Yeah come to think of it that does sound familiar, think I saw the article you posted.

Do you think if WAFC changes its tune WA3 will be front runners?

I think to myself how the hell could a football body in W.A not think it's good for the game in W.A to not have a third club. It kinda makes sense why footy has gone backwards a little there, with these bozos in charge. If they honestly think a third club isn't in W.A' footy's best interest, i wonder what their agenda is?

I think they'd be front runners with Canberra and n.t anyway. Basil zempilas getting elected premier would be the most helpful thing though, particularly given he's an old west Perth boy so Joondalup would be of appeal to him to base the new club.

 

[Coolangatta]

I think to myself how the hell could a football body in W.A not think it's good for the game in W.A to not have a third club. It kinda makes sense why footy has gone backwards a little there, with these bozos in charge. If they honestly think a third club isn't in W.A' footy's best interest, i wonder what their agenda is?

I think they'd be front runners with Canberra and n.t anyway. Basil zempilas getting elected premier would be the most helpful thing though, particularly given he's an old west Perth boy so Joondalup would be of appeal to him to base the new club.

All the more reason for me to support Canberra as team 20 then. Can’t stand him.

You’re right, though, from a footy perspective if he did in the unlikely event win (he and LNP are very unpopular in WA) he’d be the no. 1 ambassador for Joondalup Falcons in the AFL I think.

Only problem with that is I’d want East Perth Royals in there (old man supported them) for good measure.

Can we just go to 22 teams by 2035 and have Canberra, the Falcons and the Royals?

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Agree relocations unlikely (not advocating for relocation) however contract with Marvel is irrelevant now as the AFL owns the stadium outright. It is a contract with itself. It can shift the split of games between the MCG and Marvel going forward.

Its not entirely irrelevant. The AFL owns the ground but various aspects of management, the food stand operators, etc have contracts which presumably (I have no inside knowledge, but paying big money for no guarantee seems a bit of an idiot business move) include a certain minimum number of events. Obviously all of those contracts would be up for renewal at some point, and that number of events may not be the same as the old external tenancy contract.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

All the more reason for me to support Canberra as team 20 then. Can’t stand him.

You’re right, though, from a footy perspective if he did in the unlikely event win (he and LNP are very unpopular in WA) he’d be the no. 1 ambassador for Joondalup Falcons in the AFL I think.

Only problem with that is I’d want East Perth Royals in there (old man supported them) for good measure.

Can we just go to 22 teams by 2035 and have Canberra, the Falcons and the Royals?

I doubt team 20 will be named any time soon. The AFL knows Tasmania may very well fall over, years one and two are probably as strong off-field as the club will ever get and no decision on whether it lasts is likely until well into the 2030s. Which, unless the Devils being replaced becomes an option, delays naming team20.

For me, Canberra is the obvious Team20. Medium term finances way ahead of Tasmania and a relatively high income, high population growth, single market (all three the exact opposite of Tassie), region with some interest in the game but likely to grow that share with a full time presence. The main downside, much of the population (like Gold Coast) did not grow up in the region and may not have the attachment of home-growns.
But, if Tasmania struggles off-field (almost certain by year five or six) or falls over (possible, but might not be allowed to do so) I doubt anywhere beyond the very major centres will get a look-in again for a very long time.

WA3&4 are the medium and long term financial sure things, but short term would obviously start with a very small supporter base (but possibly decent sponsorship base) with such entrenched Eagle and Docker support. One in the north and another city based, entering in the same year.

 

[Coolangatta]

I doubt team 20 will be named any time soon. The AFL knows Tasmania may very well fall over, years one and two are probably as strong off-field as the club will ever get and no decision on whether it lasts is likely until well into the 2030s. Which, unless the Devils being replaced becomes an option, delays naming team20.

For me, Canberra is the obvious Team20. Medium term finances way ahead of Tasmania and a relatively high income, high population growth, single market (all three the exact opposite of Tassie), region with some interest in the game but likely to grow that share with a full time presence. The main downside, much of the population (like Gold Coast) did not grow up in the region and may not have the attachment of home-growns.
But, if Tasmania struggles off-field (almost certain by year five or six) or falls over (possible, but might not be allowed to do so) I doubt anywhere beyond the very major centres will get a look-in again for a very long time.

WA3&4 are the medium and long term financial sure things, but short term would obviously start with a very small supporter base (but possibly decent sponsorship base) with such entrenched Eagle and Docker support. One in the north and another city based, entering in the same year.

Yeah, Joondalup Falcons and East Perth Royals, or they could be new franchises i.e. North Perth Miners, East Perth Sharks.