Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[Bjo187]

His tone to me sounded incredibly non-committal.

But I think they need to just put them out of their misery. We know the NT can't sustain a team; the AFL knows it, too.

Stringing them along and building false hope could backfire in the long-run.

Yeah but you need the competitive tension from multiple bids when the time comes, so you can squeeze maximum government dollars out of your preferred option. They definitely shouldn't be playing up the possibility though.

I can also see now why gill had to stick around to negotiate the new tv deal, I wouldn't trust Dillon to get a good deal for the AFL on a new franchise.

 

[javaguice]

Greater West Brisbane has a certain ring to it.

Greater West Brisbane Bears?

Lets make it happen

 

[Sam_100]

The logical choice for the next team after Tassie would be Canberra. It already has a strong AFL supporter base with a good local competition. Canberra was an AFL town long before the NRL established the Raiders. It won't take long for the AFL team to overtake the Raiders as the biggest local team.

My preference would be to merge two Victorian clubs, namely St Kilda and North to keep the competition to 18 teams.St Kilda because the largest team in the local comp, Ainslie FC, sports the Saints colours and the team mascot the Kangaroos because there are so many of them around the place.

 

[Coolangatta]

The logical choice for the next team after Tassie would be Canberra. It already has a strong AFL supporter base with a good local competition. Canberra was an AFL town long before the NRL established the Raiders. It won't take long for the AFL team to overtake the Raiders as the biggest local team.

My preference would be to merge two Victorian clubs, namely St Kilda and North to keep the competition to 18 teams.St Kilda because the largest team in the local comp, Ainslie FC, sports the Saints colours and the team mascot the Kangaroos because there are so many of them around the place.

So Canberra Kangaroos in Saints colours? What do North supporters get out of it?

I think it’s too late. Relocation attempts or nothing.

I’d try and get the Roos or Saints to Canberra then Perth 3 as team 20 but if unsuccessful, go Canberra as team 20.

I think if you could do it all over again: 16 teams:

Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong, West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Western Sydney (Bulldogs), Brisbane (Fitzroy relocation), Gold Coast (Sharks), Tasmania, Canberra (Kangaroos in Saints colours).

16 teams and then leave it at that unless the NT ever became viable with a good business case then expand to a max of 18.

 

[Sam_100]

So Canberra Kangaroos in Saints colours? What do North supporters get out of it?

I think it’s too late. Relocation attempts or nothing.

I think you're right that it may be too late for mergers. I personally think a 20 team competition is too big as other have outlined in this thread however the AFL commission would love it with all the extra revenue generated from the broadcast rights.

Going back to the merger scenario of the Saint/Kangas, it's not ideal as the two teams and their supporters would lose some of their identitiy. However, to retain links to their origins the 'Canberra Kangaroos' could play in Saints colours for home games and North colours for away games. Not disimilar to what the Brisbane Lions do now.

 

[Purple Suit]

How do you know this will happen?

In theory, the AFL throw enough incentives for it to happen (eg get to keep 20 players from each team plus extra 20% in the cap for 3-5 years, plus, plus) that the minow vic clubs actually start to think it’s a good idea and get enough supporters on board from both teams to make it happen.

You then get to have double the supporters you use to have. Not sure how that affects exactly due to the opposition supporters rocking up but surely they become a much bigger club like a Hawks or Geelong size at minimum.

 

[Roylion]

In theory, the AFL throw enough incentives for it to happen (eg get to keep 20 players from each team plus extra 20% in the cap for 3-5 years, plus, plus)

For what to happen? Supporters of the old clubs to start supporting the new entity? I doubt that will happen. Because players from the old team happen to be in the new team for 4-5 yearsa is not the reason why supporters would transfer their support to the new team.

The late Ian Ridley said one of his biggest mistakes in negotiating the Melbourne-Hawks merger in 1996 is that Melbourne ignored a key price of research advice in that members and supporters see as the enduring symbols of their club, their colours, the tradition [things like history, club song etc.] and the club emblem and will reject a merger if there wasn't enough of their original club's identity retained in the new entity.

In other words, members and supporters of the two original clubs will not necessarily support the new merged club.

that the minow vic clubs actually start to think it’s a good idea and get enough supporters on board from both teams to make it happen.

And how will they do that?

You then get to have double the supporters you use to have.

I doubt that would happen.

A survey conducted in 1997 found that only 27% of Fitzroy supporters had switched their support to the Brisbane Lions, after Fitzroy exited in 1996.

Another estimation by a Fitzroy author after conducting hundred of interviews with supporters concluded that 40% of Fitzroy supporters were lost permanently to football, another 5% went to support another club and 5-10% of Fitzroy supporters now follow another code or lower levels of Australian Rules football. That leaves 45-50% supporting the new club. Depending on the new club's identity those figures - from supporters of the two former clubs - could be altered.

Not sure how that affects exactly due to the opposition supporters rocking up but surely they become a much bigger club like a Hawks or Geelong size at minimum.

Why would they?

I think you underestimate the level of angst, vitriol and negative publicity that accompanied each of the three serious merger proposals in the late 80's and 90s and how much there would be with any future merger proposal. The AFL is well aware of this.

 

[Roylion]

Going back to the merger scenario of the Saint/Kangas, it's not ideal as the two teams and their supporters would lose some of their identitiy.

Then why support the new club?

However, to retain links to their origins the 'Canberra Kangaroos' could play in Saints colours for home games and North colours for away games. Not disimilar to what the Brisbane Lions do now.

It is dissimilar. So for Saints and North supporters in the so called Canberra Kangaroos playing in different jumpers not only do you get to watch just 5-6 games in Melbourne but one of those original supporter group never gets to see their club play in their original North jumper live, unless they go to Canberra. Why on earth would they support the 'Canberra Kangaroos' under such a scenario?

 

[Purple Suit]

There is no big anything. Its not a thing.

It's a term used for the biggest supported clubs in Melbourne. They have a historical advantage that will be just about impossible to overcome unless culture changes in the future. It's not a dig at smaller teams, it's just how it is. I support one of them in my city who will never has as many fans as the scum up the road.

 

[Coolangatta]

I think you're right that it may be too late for mergers. I personally think a 20 team competition is too big as other have outlined in this thread however the AFL commission would love it with all the extra revenue generated from the broadcast rights.

Going back to the merger scenario of the Saint/Kangas, it's not ideal as the two teams and their supporters would lose some of their identitiy. However, to retain links to their origins the 'Canberra Kangaroos' could play in Saints colours for home games and North colours for away games. Not disimilar to what the Brisbane Lions do now.

Or they retain their identities but relocate.

Canberra Saints, North Queensland Kangaroos, Northern Territory team 20.

Game becomes truly national.

NT and NQ seem a long way off though, if ever, so it’s probably more likely they just go for a 20th club and if it isn’t NT, there could be more expansion.

I don’t think the NT, like Tasmania, will ever give up on expansion. They’re the only ones fighting for it, there’s no demand from Canberra, WA3, SA3 or QLD3.

Whereas NT as 20 might be the final expansion as I don’t think Canberra will fight tooth and nail for a 21st licence. Only if the AFL want to add more teams in places they desire would they go beyond 20.

 

[Purple Suit]

For what to happen? Supporters of the old clubs to start supporting the new entity? I doubt that will happen. Because players from the old team happen to be in the new team for 4-5 yearsa is not the reason why supporters would transfer their support to the new team.

The late Ian Ridley said one of his biggest mistakes in negotiating the Melbourne-Hawks merger in 1996 is that Melbourne ignored a key price of research advice in that members and supporters see as the enduring symbols of their club, their colours, the tradition [things like history, club song etc.] and the club emblem and will reject a merger if there wasn't enough of their original club's identity retained in the new entity.

In other words, members and supporters of the two original clubs will not necessarily support the new merged club.


And how will they do that?


I doubt that would happen.

A survey conducted in 1997 found that only 27% of Fitzroy supporters had switched their support to the Brisbane Lions, after Fitzroy exited in 1996.

Another estimation by a Fitzroy author after conducting hundred of interviews with supporters concluded that 40% of Fitzroy supporters were lost permanently to football, another 5% went to support another club and 5-10% of Fitzroy supporters now follow another code or lower levels of Australian Rules football. That leaves 45-50% supporting the new club. Depending on the new club's identity those figures - from supporters of the two former clubs - could be altered.



Why would they?

I think you underestimate the level of angst, vitriol and negative publicity that accompanied each of the three serious merger proposals in the late 80's and 90s and how much there would be with any future merger proposal. The AFL is well aware of this.

It's a bit different still supporting a team who live in another state. The local media give you no attention, you get to go to only 2-3 games, things change.

I'm not saying it's going to work perfectly but I still think from a far, if Fitzroy merged with North Melbourne instead of Brisbane (technicalities aside), The Fitzroy Kangaroos would be not on the bottom tier of all the Melbourne supporter metrics. The landscape at the time was a lot different to now and it will be shifting further by the time this gets raised again so maybe teams think merging is better than relocated to another state if it comes to that.

 

[Roylion]

It's a bit different still supporting a team who live in another state. The local media give you no attention, you get to go to only 2-3 games, things change.

I'm not saying it's going to work perfectly but I still think from a far, if Fitzroy merged with North Melbourne instead of Brisbane (technicalities aside), The Fitzroy Kangaroos would be not on the bottom tier of all the Melbourne supporter metrics.

What if the merger was skewed towards the North Melbourne identity as was likely to happen? North Fitzroy Kangaroos playing in a predominately North Melbourne jumper with a splash of red and a little gold lion on the breast. Home ground, coach, captain, the majority of the playing list etc. Why would I, for example support such an entity that looked mostly like North? If I wanted to support North Melbourne I would have already been doing so.

What if the Fitzroy supporter base had rejected the proposed merger because it was skewed primarily toward the North Melbourne identity? They would still be amongst the smallest of the Melbourne clubs in that case. Like the Footscray supporter base rejected the Fitzroy Bulldogs in 1989 or the Hawks supporter base rejected the Melbourne Hawks in 1996.

The landscape at the time was a lot different to now and it will be shifting further by the time this gets raised again so maybe teams think merging is better

There is no need for any club to merge.

than relocated to another state if it comes to that.

Not in the short to medium term.

 

[parano1a]

North Melbourne and St Kilda aren't going anywhere. In the ludicrous "Canberra Kangaroos" proposal suggested above, how would the AFL make up the 18 additional games per season required to fulfil the Marvel Stadium contract?

 

[Shane Heard]

Population is good but could be better (166,494)

Sunshine Coast is a huge increase on that (376,114) and has a lot of expat southerners based there.

Sunshine Coast is full of old people and Jehovah’s Witnesses and other kooks. Rugby league dominance there too all the way up to Townsville.

Not an ideal AFL location

 

[Gibbke]

Its the expats kids who end up supporting the local team, the reason the GC failed early is because all the expats were retirees

The GC is set to explode for exactly this reason in a number of areas. I lived there 1996-2000, and the population when I turned up was 220k. It still had the 5 town mentality, and as I was leaving you could see the united GCCC signs in blue and gold. I stood on the hill overlooking Robina in 1996, just a sea of cleared subdivisions without a house in sight, but a huge shopping mall fully completed right in the middle of it, all empty except for two brand new businesses and a lot of tumbleweed. I met two people the entire time who were actually born on the GC. Coolangatta in the 2001 census was shown to have a population with an average age of 60! And while all this transience was going on, the Bears, Seagulls/Chargers, baseball, basketball, etc were all playing onfield and failing off field, because the place and more accurately the suits all saw themselves as big game players and had this utterly wanky corporate mentality, everyone here to make a quick buck...plastic everywhere from business to boob jobs...

Now, those who stayed have kids and they live in Australia's 5th biggest city, which will eventually surpass a couple of capitals and maybe merge with Brisbane and become a mega city, NY style. If they were to put a BBL franchise in that place, it would become the destination team in no time. RL and AFL...it's inevitable that they will shed the bullshit that has been GC sport for decades and get serious, and then capitalise on the golden resources they have sitting right there. And then it's take two on the lower sports...basketball will be back, who knows what RU will do, soccer as long as Clive Palmer is banned...these days it's assumed NSW and Vic will get two franchises and the rest one every time they want to start something up, but Qld will be an automatic two once the GC is legit...

And the NRL and AFL have known this for years, sitting on a mining boom they'll never give up. I'd imagine we've seen the last of the "scrap GC" comments...

 

[Walshawk]

Or they retain their identities but relocate.

Canberra Saints, North Queensland Kangaroos, Northern Territory team 20.

Game becomes truly national.

NT and NQ seem a long way off though, if ever, so it’s probably more likely they just go for a 20th club and if it isn’t NT, there could be more expansion.

I don’t think the NT, like Tasmania, will ever give up on expansion. They’re the only ones fighting for it, there’s no demand from Canberra, WA3, SA3 or QLD3.

Whereas NT as 20 might be the final expansion as I don’t think Canberra will fight tooth and nail for a 21st licence. Only if the AFL want to add more teams in places they desire would they go beyond 20.

Canberra is the logical, sensible, conservative and common sense option for team 20.

Therefore, It has no chance of getting up.

 

[GenericUsername202]

Sunshine Coast is full of old people and Jehovah’s Witnesses and other kooks. Rugby league dominance there too all the way up to Townsville.

Not an ideal AFL location

Jesus, do you guys understand the point of creating an AFL team? It's to create growth. There were almost 0 AFL fans in Sydney and Brisbane before the lions and swans came along too, likewise, you can make all the jokes about gold coast, but Gold Coast is genuinely a 50/50 split these days between league and AFL. That's why Sunshine Coast or North Queensland makes the most sense. It has the most growth potential.

 

[Seeds]

Greater West Brisbane has a certain ring to it.

Greater West Brisbane Bears?

Lets make it happen

There isnt really a west brisbane.

 

[Seeds]

Jesus, do you guys understand the point of creating an AFL team? It's to create growth. There were almost 0 AFL fans in Sydney and Brisbane before the lions and swans came along too, likewise, you can make all the jokes about gold coast, but Gold Coast is genuinely a 50/50 split these days between league and AFL. That's why Sunshine Coast or North Queensland makes the most sense. It has the most growth potential.

Gold coast was 50-50 before the afl team went there. But even still, it lacks the population and support. They play in a tiny stadium with tiny crowds. Average crowd of 22 thousand this year (it would be much smaller if we only counted home games). Crowds hasnt grown one bit since their first season. Cant really claim a grow the game argument in regards to gold coast. Compare this to north which is melbournes least populated side and performing terribly and they average 30 thousand. If any team should leave the comp its gold coast before north. Although gws probably has even less claims then gold coast to still being in the comp.

Sunshine coast and nth queensland are far far worse in terms of population and afl support then the gold coast. Where would you even put a sufficient sized stadium. They would struggle to get 10 thousand people to games. Actually i think they would struggle some weeks to get 5000. It would be ridiculous.

 

[GenericUsername202]

North Melbourne and St Kilda aren't going anywhere. In the ludicrous "Canberra Kangaroos" proposal suggested above, how would the AFL make up the 18 additional games per season required to fulfil the Marvel Stadium contract?

St Kilda are fine, but teams like North will look like a major blight on the competition in 10/15 years time. You will have teams like brisbane, Sydney, wc, frem, adel and PA selling out huge stadiums at home each week. Even smaller teams like the new tasmanian one and gold coast should be close to selling out their much smaller stadiums. Then you will have north playing in a 50k stadium with a crowd of 15k or something. North's existence will only make the AFL look more poorer in the future, so unless you move them to a smaller stadium, their existence should be up for debate. They have the smallest fanbase in victoria, they draw almost no one to their away games and they have flirted with relocation multiple times in the past.

 

[GenericUsername202]

Gold coast was 50-50 before the afl team went there. But it even still, it lacks the population and support. They play in a tiny stadium with tiny crowds.

Sunshine coast and nth queensland are far far worse in terms of population and afl support. Where would you even put a sufficient sized stadium. They would struggle to get 10 thousand people to games.

The growth of AFL in brisbane should be reason enough to have a team in the northern parts of QLD. And Gold Coast's suns crowds aren't that small. Yes, they only draw around 18k, but it's still more than the titans. So that reason alone says that they're successful, considering they're doing better than their competitor. Just build a boutique 20k stadium in Townsville or Cairns, and you probably get 75% of that capacity. And while a crowd of 15k doesn't sound too great, it's a lot better than having 20k in a 50k marvel stadiums like you will see with some victorian games with lower drawing clubs.

 

[Canberra Pear]

The GC is set to explode for exactly this reason in a number of areas. I lived there 1996-2000, and the population when I turned up was 220k. It still had the 5 town mentality, and as I was leaving you could see the united GCCC signs in blue and gold. I stood on the hill overlooking Robina in 1996, just a sea of cleared subdivisions without a house in sight, but a huge shopping mall fully completed right in the middle of it, all empty except for two brand new businesses and a lot of tumbleweed. I met two people the entire time who were actually born on the GC. Coolangatta in the 2001 census was shown to have a population with an average age of 60! And while all this transience was going on, the Bears, Seagulls/Chargers, baseball, basketball, etc were all playing onfield and failing off field, because the place and more accurately the suits all saw themselves as big game players and had this utterly wanky corporate mentality, everyone here to make a quick buck...plastic everywhere from business to boob jobs...

Now, those who stayed have kids and they live in Australia's 5th biggest city, which will eventually surpass a couple of capitals and maybe merge with Brisbane and become a mega city, NY style. If they were to put a BBL franchise in that place, it would become the destination team in no time. RL and AFL...it's inevitable that they will shed the bullshit that has been GC sport for decades and get serious, and then capitalise on the golden resources they have sitting right there. And then it's take two on the lower sports...basketball will be back, who knows what RU will do, soccer as long as Clive Palmer is banned...these days it's assumed NSW and Vic will get two franchises and the rest one every time they want to start something up, but Qld will be an automatic two once the GC is legit...

And the NRL and AFL have known this for years, sitting on a mining boom they'll never give up. I'd imagine we've seen the last of the "scrap GC" comments...

I think of the Gold Coast as a bit like Vegas.

A tourist strip that nobody took seriously, but the population has continued to boom, and now leagues are lining up. BBL and NBL teams are surely in the Gold Coast's future.

Increase Carrara to 35k, get the light rail and ferries to Carrara, there is so much upside for the Suns.

 

[crows dude]

The logical choice for the next team after Tassie would be Canberra. It already has a strong AFL supporter base with a good local competition. Canberra was an AFL town long before the NRL established the Raiders. It won't take long for the AFL team to overtake the Raiders as the biggest local team.

My preference would be to merge two Victorian clubs, namely St Kilda and North to keep the competition to 18 teams.St Kilda because the largest team in the local comp, Ainslie FC, sports the Saints colours and the team mascot the Kangaroos because there are so many of them around the place.

Yes

St Kilda and North to Canberra

Hawks to Tassie.

 

[javaguice]

There isnt really a west brisbane.

Ive had enough of your nepotism thanks

 

[GenericUsername202]

The advantages of merging clubs is that you create a fanbase in Victoria for when you travel there. That's one of the reasons why the bears merged with Fitzroy, because we didn't have any victorian fans at the time. It's also the biggest blight on on huge interstate clubs like the eagles. They usually draw very little to their victorian games because their fanbase is in perth, while if you watch any swans or lions games in victoria, you will see a huge amount of support for both teams.