Analysis Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn?

[Robertio]

I did say 'Premiership contention'.

So the quote 'how did we manage to play finals despite a horrid run with injuries', doesn't suggest a much improved performance (I.e. premiership contention) in the absence of injuries?

We've had this conversation a hundred bloody times in the other thread mate, now that thread is dead you want to bring it here.

 

[Fadge]

We've had this conversation a hundred bloody times in the other thread mate, now that thread is dead you want to bring it here.

It's not dead. Plenty of activity going on on there.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It's not dead. Plenty of activity going on on there.

Well off you go then Fadge! Take your trolling somewhere else

T

 

[Fadge]

A team with no depth wouldn't be able to make finals with a horrible injury run was what was said. No mention of us not being in premiership contention because of injuries - just another example of you making up stuff.

Right.

So if a team was able to make finals despite 'a horrid run with injuries', what would you expect from them if they had a 'normal run with injuries'?

 

[Robertio]

It's not dead. Plenty of activity going on on there.

Well get back there then, I'm banned so i won't be going there again with you softies.

 

[Worm4]

It's not dead. Plenty of activity going on on there.

Playing soggy biscuits amongst yourselves is not what i call "activity"

 

[Fadge]

Playing soggy biscuits amongst yourselves is not what i call "activity"

Why wouldn't a club's supporters be bullish when there is a gap between them and the rest of the competition at the top of the ladder, we're positioning ourselves to bring in Rowell in the off season, and the supporters of the other team have completely given up on the season (as predicted)?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Just wondering when the mods are ever going to get rid of this troll

 

[Fadge]

Given the Carlton supporters have migrated en masse to this thread, do they honestly have hopes being 'better' than Hawthorn?

 

[Guardian Hawk]

How have Carlton won games in the last 3-4 years without depth? They've had a horrid run with injuries for a long time and have been able to remain competitive regardless.

Firstly, you'll note I said Carlton have been criticised for a lack of depth rather than explicitly claiming it as my own view because I don't know the depths of your list and their quality deeply enough to make definitive call.

But I imagine the critique of your depth have come from a few factors, namely:

1. You currently boast some of the most highly rated players in the competition - including someone who won 2 of the last 3 Brownlows, with a record breaking count. 3 of the last 4 Colemans have gone to Carlton players. You boast the reigning All Australian full back. You have a young superstar who appears set to become the highest paid player in history, etc, etc - yet you have been "middle of the road" side (sometimes worse) through most of the last few seasons. This would suggest that the players beneath your superstars are not contributing as much as the good sides or you'd be top 4. My own club is a good contrast - we have no one in AA contention yet are performing better overall - surely that suggests that the bottom half of the team are likely contributing more.

2. When the injuries have come for Carlton, the wheels seem to have fallen off. Last season, you were top 4 and premiership favourites 16 rounds into the season. A run of injuries came and the only games you won for the rest of the entire season was against 2 of the worst sides in history - West Coast and North. My own side belted you by 74 points without getting out of 2nd gear. 2023 had a similar patch - you had a period with a few injuries (a pretty normal amount tbh) and you won 1 match against West Coast in a 9 match stretch.

3. I think the final reason this critique may be levelled is there seems to be some players who continue to get regular games for Carlton, even when their form is quite down. This doesn't happen as much for the top 4 teams. Teams like Brisbane, Geelong, etc tend not to carry players that struggle to contribute for long stretches. I'm no expert on the Carlton side and don't want to knock players (especially younger players) but Jesse Motlop might be a good example? He plays every week but is averaging 10 possessions and 0.6 of a goal. He had a 4 week stretch where he managed 1 goal and a "high" of 7 touches, but was never subbed or dropped. Corey Durdin played 14 matches last year, averaging 5 touches a game (he had 4 uncontested possessions (0 goals) in the final round of last year and still got picked for the final - where he proceeded to have 4 touches and 0 goals again). Zac Williams has had similar stretches. Others too. I personally don't think Orazio Fantasia should still be getting a game. If you had very strong depth and AFL quality alternatives, I expect these players would be displaced from the team (or at least dropped back to the VFL until they find some form).

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Firstly, you'll note I said Carlton have been criticised for a lack of depth rather than explicitly claiming it as my own view because I don't know the depths of your list and their quality deeply enough to make definitive call.

But I imagine the critique of your depth have come from a few factors, namely:

1. You currently boast some of the most highly rated players in the competition - including someone who won 2 of the last 3 Brownlows, with a record breaking count. 3 of the last 4 Colemans have gone to Carlton players. You boast the reigning All Australian full back. You have a young superstar who appears set to become the highest paid player in history, etc, etc - yet you have been "middle of the road" side (sometimes worse) through most of the last few seasons. This would suggest that the players beneath your superstars are not contributing as much as the good sides or you'd be top 4. My own club is a good contrast - we have no one in AA contention yet are performing better overall - surely that suggests that the bottom half of the team are likely contributing more.

2. When the injuries have come for Carlton, the wheels seem to have fallen off. Last season, you were top 4 and premiership favourites 16 rounds into the season. A run of injuries came and the only games you won for the rest of the entire season was against 2 of the worst sides in history - West Coast and North. My own side belted you by 74 points without getting out of 2nd gear. 2023 had a similar patch - you had a period with a few injuries (a pretty normal amount tbh) and you won 1 match against West Coast in a 9 match stretch.

3. I think the final reason this critique may be levelled is there seems to be some players who continue to get regular games for Carlton, even when their form is quite down. This doesn't happen as much for the top 4 teams. Teams like Brisbane, Geelong, etc tend not to carry players that struggle to contribute for long stretches. I'm no expert on the Carlton side and don't want to knock players (especially younger players) but Jesse Motlop might be a good example? He plays every week but is averaging 10 possessions and 0.6 of a goal. He had a 4 week stretch where he managed 1 goal and a "high" of 7 touches, but was never subbed or dropped. Corey Durdin played 14 matches last year, averaging 5 touches a game (he had 4 uncontested possessions (0 goals) in the final round of last year and still got picked for the final - where he proceeded to have 4 touches and 0 goals again). Zac Williams has had similar stretches. Others too. I personally don't think Orazio Fantasia should still be getting a game. If you had very strong depth and AFL quality alternatives, I expect these players would be displaced from the team (or at least dropped back to the VFL until they find some form).

Theres so much wrong in this it's hard to know where to start a response...

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Theres so much wrong in this it's hard to know where to start a response...

I said I wasn't an expert on Carlton and provided some thoughts I why I think perhaps there is a broader impression that the Carlton side does not have amazing depth. Feel free to educate me on the great depth Carlton do boast

or if you must, you can instead contend the points I have made (perhaps 1 and 3 most significantly as I'm not keen for number 2 to lead to a list of who was missing in what round, etc).

 

[carlton_99]

1. You currently boast some of the most highly rated players in the competition - including someone who won 2 of the last 3 Brownlows, with a record breaking count. 3 of the last 4 Colemans have gone to Carlton players. You boast the reigning All Australian full back. You have a young superstar who appears set to become the highest paid player in history, etc, etc - yet you have been "middle of the road" side (sometimes worse) through most of the last few seasons. This would suggest that the players beneath your superstars are not contributing as much as the good sides or you'd be top 4. My own club is a good contrast - we have no one in AA contention yet are performing better overall - surely that suggests that the bottom half of the team are likely contributing more.

Carlton have a top-heavy list. No one is denying that - in fact even our CEO Brian Cook has said it publicly. This means obviously the balance of the list is going to look different to some other teams that have spread their money out a bit more evenly. However, the idea that us being "middle of the road" despite having some players with personal accolades means that we have no depth outside our top-6 doesn't make much sense to me. This isn't the NBA - you don't put yourself in a position to make finals in 23' and 24' without significant performances from role players across a season. You only have to look at our 2023 finals run (i.e., the biggest matches this club has played in a decade) to see it was off the back of Walsh and the likes of Cerra, Newman, Cottrell, Acres, Hewett, Saad, Motlop etc. It wasn't the top 6 that drove us - it was largely the players under them.

You also seem to put the difference in Carlton and Hawthorn's performance thus far in 25' to depth. When there is another major difference between the two teams that can more than explain the gap in performance so far and that's coaching. Sam Mitchell for me is the most tactically astute coach in the league and there have been a lot of questions raised about the tactical acumen of our coaching group. You can read countless posts on the main board from Carlton fans discussing issues with system/tactics etc.

2. When the injuries have come for Carlton, the wheels seem to have fallen off. Last season, you were top 4 and premiership favourites 16 rounds into the season. A run of injuries came and the only games you won for the rest of the entire season was against 2 of the worst sides in history - West Coast and North. My own side belted you by 74 points without getting out of 2nd gear. 2023 had a similar patch - you had a period with a few injuries (a pretty normal amount tbh) and you won 1 match against West Coast in a 9 match stretch.

This is just not true. Carlton's run with injuries over the last decade, let alone since Voss took over, has been a massive joke. A lot of it on the club with holding onto injury prone players and also general injury management but obviously also a load of bad luck. But Carlton's form has never really dipped because of injuries. In fact, in 2023 our 9-1 run to finish the H+A season coincided with injuries to Cerra, Walsh, McKay, McGovern, Pittonet, Silvagni, Kennedy, and Boyd (suspension) and more over that period. Then you look at 2024 when he started off hot we were still dealing with injuries for most of that period. The healthiest we had been in years was funnily enough against the Tigers in Round 16. The week after that our losing streak began. So it is not correct to put that down to injuries at all.

Our injuries then rose to a peak you will very rarely see with a team in that Hawthorn game. We went into the game in some poor form so probably we never going to win the game but you won by 74 points because we lost 5 players to injury in the game. Fogarty and Martin went in the 1st. Boyd then got injured in the 2nd (from memory) but had to return and play forward just so we could keep some rotations going on the bench. He went statless for the rest of the game because he genuinely couldn't move. And then we lost Charlie in the 3rd and Harry late. The margin for that game was irrelevant. Then we had the Eagles and Saints to finish and during that fortnight we had 19 on the injury list with only one AFL-listed player healthy enough to play in the VFL.

So really not sure where this "wheels come off when Carlton get injuries" narrative has come from. The evidence simply does not support it at all.

3. I think the final reason this critique may be levelled is there seems to be some players who continue to get regular games for Carlton, even when their form is quite down. This doesn't happen as much for the top 4 teams. Teams like Brisbane, Geelong, etc tend not to carry players that struggle to contribute for long stretches. I'm no expert on the Carlton side and don't want to knock players (especially younger players) but Jesse Motlop might be a good example? He plays every week but is averaging 10 possessions and 0.6 of a goal. He had a 4 week stretch where he managed 1 goal and a "high" of 7 touches, but was never subbed or dropped. Corey Durdin played 14 matches last year, averaging 5 touches a game (he had 4 uncontested possessions (0 goals) in the final round of last year and still got picked for the final - where he proceeded to have 4 touches and 0 goals again). Zac Williams has had similar stretches. Others too. I personally don't think Orazio Fantasia should still be getting a game. If you had very strong depth and AFL quality alternatives, I expect these players would be displaced from the team (or at least dropped back to the VFL until they find some form).

Carlton lack quality small forwards. It's a list hole not a depth issue. They have plenty of small forwards on the list. It's just outside of Williams (very injury prone) none of them are quality players yet. Not sure what stretches you are referring to for Williams - he has always been pretty productive as a small forward for Carlton since switching there. His issue is obviously staying out there. Motlop and Durdin have flaws but they have shown some positive signs. Motlop ranks elite for tackles per game (top-5 amongst general forwards in the AFL with > 5 games) and averages 16.2 pressure acts per game. His set shot kicking has hurt him this year like a lot of our players. Durdin has pretty much replaced Owies' goal output from the last few seasons. Is it an area of strength? Definitely not. Is the issue lack of depth in the area? Definitely not - if anything we have too many small forwards on the list and imo play too many week-to-week.

 

[Fadge]

I said I wasn't an expert on Carlton and provided some thoughts I why I think perhaps there is a broader impression that the Carlton side does not have amazing depth. Feel free to educate me on the great depth Carlton do boast

or if you must, you can instead contend the points I have made (perhaps 1 and 3 most significantly as I'm not keen for number 2 to lead to a list of who was missing in what round, etc).

They're just giving you their standard responses.

Everything you articulated so well was spot on, they just don't want to have a bar of it.

Their next go to is to accuse you of trolling.

 

[Fadge]

Carlton have a top-heavy list. No one is denying that - in fact even our CEO Brian Cook has said it publicly. This means obviously the balance of the list is going to look different to some other teams that have spread their money out a bit more evenly. However, the idea that us being "middle of the road" despite having some players with personal accolades means that we have no depth outside our top-6 doesn't make much sense to me. This isn't the NBA - you don't put yourself in a position to make finals in 23' and 24' without significant performances from role players across a season. You only have to look at our 2023 finals run (i.e., the biggest matches this club has played in a decade) to see it was off the back of Walsh and the likes of Cerra, Newman, Cottrell, Acres, Hewett, Saad, Motlop etc. It wasn't the top 6 that drove us - it was largely the players under them.

You also seem to put the difference in Carlton and Hawthorn's performance thus far in 25' to depth. When there is another major difference between the two teams that can more than explain the gap in performance so far and that's coaching. Sam Mitchell for me is the most tactically astute coach in the league and there have been a lot of questions raised about the tactical acumen of our coaching group. You can read countless posts on the main board from Carlton fans discussing issues with system/tactics etc.

This is just not true. Carlton's run with injuries over the last decade, let alone since Voss took over, has been a massive joke. A lot of it on the club with holding onto injury prone players and also general injury management but obviously also a load of bad luck. But Carlton's form has never really dipped because of injuries. In fact, in 2023 our 9-1 run to finish the H+A season coincided with injuries to Cerra, Walsh, McKay, McGovern, Pittonet, Silvagni, Kennedy, and Boyd (suspension) and more over that period. Then you look at 2024 when he started off hot we were still dealing with injuries for most of that period. The healthiest we had been in years was funnily enough against the Tigers in Round 16. The week after that our losing streak began. So it is not correct to put that down to injuries at all.

Our injuries then rose to a peak you will very rarely see with a team in that Hawthorn game. We went into the game in some poor form so probably we never going to win the game but you won by 74 points because we lost 5 players to injury in the game. Fogarty and Martin went in the 1st. Boyd then got injured in the 2nd (from memory) but had to return and play forward just so we could keep some rotations going on the bench. He went statless for the rest of the game because he genuinely couldn't move. And then we lost Charlie in the 3rd and Harry late. The margin for that game was irrelevant. Then we had the Eagles and Saints to finish and during that fortnight we had 19 on the injury list with only one AFL-listed player healthy enough to play in the VFL.

So really not sure where this "wheels come off when Carlton get injuries" narrative has come from. The evidence simply does not support it at all.

Carlton lack quality small forwards. It's a list hole not a depth issue. They have plenty of small forwards on the list. It's just outside of Williams (very injury prone) none of them are quality players yet. Not sure what stretches you are referring to for Williams - he has always been pretty productive as a small forward for Carlton since switching there. His issue is obviously staying out there. Motlop and Durdin have flaws but they have shown some positive signs. Motlop ranks elite for tackles per game (top-5 amongst general forwards in the AFL with > 5 games) and averages 16.2 pressure acts per game. His set shot kicking has hurt him this year like a lot of our players. Durdin has pretty much replaced Owies' goal output from the last few seasons. Is it an area of strength? Definitely not. Is the issue lack of depth in the area? Definitely not - if anything we have too many small forwards on the list and imo play too many week-to-week.

You do realise that when people refer to a 'lack of depth', the implication is that they're assuming any 'depth' is AFL quality who can perform at the level?

The fact a team has most of their players beyond their top 15 to 18 that aren't capable at the level supports any comment about 'lack of depth' perfectly.

 

[CarmenSandiego]

You do realise that when people refer to a 'lack of depth', the implication is that they're assuming any 'depth' is AFL quality who can perform at the level?

The fact a team has most of their players beyond their top 15 to 18 that aren't capable at the level supports any comment about 'lack of depth' perfectly.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

They're just giving you their standard responses.

Everything you articulated so well was spot on, they just don't want to have a bar of it.

Their next go to is to accuse you of trolling.

Go run off home Fadge, go mash your report button elsewhere

 

[Robertio]

They're just giving you their standard responses.

Everything you articulated so well was spot on, they just don't want to have a bar of it.

Their next go to is to accuse you of trolling.

You are trolling this is an example.

 

[Towmotar]

I'm enjoying this thread. I really like Carlton and enjoy watching them (my other half is a Blues fan so I watch them most weeks)
In my humble opinion Carlton have a weak bottom end (6 ish), and poor old Vossy (whom I like too) couldn't coach a team to fart at a curry night.
If only Mitchell had Cripps, Weitering, TDK and Curnow to play with......

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I'm enjoying this thread. I really like Carlton and enjoy watching them (my other half is a Blues fan so I watch them most weeks)
In my humble opinion Carlton have a weak bottom end (6 ish), and poor old Vossy (whom I like too) couldn't coach a team to fart at a curry night.
If only Mitchell had Cripps, Weitering, TDK and Curnow to play with......

Who are these mysterious 'bottom 6' players we always hear about? Used to hear Silvagni, Kennedy etc thrown up as our bottom 6... but I guess that's all been proven rather funny this year

If we had a full suit of players to pick from who are our 'bottom 6'?

 

[Fadge]

Who are these mysterious 'bottom 6' players we always hear about? Used to hear Silvagni, Kennedy etc thrown up as our bottom 6... but I guess that's all been proven rather funny this year

If we had a full suit of players to pick from who are our 'bottom 6'?

Why are you guys asking the very same questions you've had answered in the Carlton v. Collingwood thread, and you didn't want to hear the answers the first time around?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Why are you guys asking the very same questions you've had answered in the Carlton v. Collingwood thread, and you didn't want to hear the answers the first time around?

 

[Robertio]

Why are you guys asking the very same questions you've had answered in the Carlton v. Collingwood thread, and you didn't want to hear the answers the first time around?

Stop trolling this thread.

 

[RCAB]

I feel like I should put the rest of these Carlton people on ignore, they really provide nothing cerebral on this site.

Poster puts in time to write a well thought out post:

• gets trolled immediately and told it's slop
• a long reply with language to demonstrate they strongly disagree but then actually make the same points that agree with the post?
• constantly calling other people trolls and throwing reports left, right and centre when in fact they're the ones nearly always trolling with gifs, insults and dumb takes — which they know are dumb.

BTW, I'm not saying all Carlton posters, some of the smartest posters on this site are Carlton, but they don't post on the MB, but the posse of select few that do here regularly, they offer little to no rationale debate, and it's been like this for years.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Carlthorn? Or Hawlton?

The Hawthorn Blues? Or the Carlton Hawks?