Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[WeeBlake]

The only time things opened up was Q4 v Brisbane when we were behind.

It’s familiar from years past though: we’ve looked much better when we have had to attack in q4s

 

[Danger in Texas]

Hoyne says we have the worst offensive profile in the comp against the top 9 sides

****in yikes

 

[Scorpus]

Hoyne says we have the worst offensive profile in the comp against the top 9 sides

****in yikes

Need more people to jump aboard the "we are a defensive team" bandwagon

 

[Danger in Texas]

Need more people to jump aboard the "we are a defensive team" bandwagon

Ross Nicks

 

[FR0GGY]

yes

 

[daniel_4tw]

We haven't scored heavily in our games vs top teams recently however that's seemed very much by design.

After the GC/Geel losses, we started playing a much safer, risk-averse style against strong teams.

Wars of attrition. Going up the line. Very few switches. Not playing on after a mark/free kick. Not trying to hit up options in the corridor. Grinding territory battles. The Collingwood game in particular was an offensive stalemate. Neither side risking turnover.

The only time things opened up was Q4 v Brisbane when we were behind.

In games vs dud teams we go back to our attacking, fast style and blitz them but we seem cautious to play in this way vs better teams.

Can we beat top teams in September in an arm wrestle? Can we beat top teams in September in a fast, open game?

Personally I don't think we can beat good teams without an element of risk.

This is the biggest frustration with Nicks.

He’s too afraid to lose so we don’t play a winning style.

We have the best forward line in the league and some absolute x-factor players. We can score a lot and quickly when it comes off. It is our biggest strength and if we have any chance of winning in September it needs to be the ‘nothing to lose’ style. Think Melbourne’s style when they won. If we get into a shootout, who can match us?

We won’t be beating Geelong and Collingwood with the slow risk averse grind. Their class will rise with a short burst of 3 goals and the game will be done.

Play to our strengths. If we lose, we lose. Hoping teams kick 0.8 like Brisbane in the last quarter is not a recipe for a premiership.

 

[spenze]

This is the biggest frustration with Nicks.

He’s too afraid to lose so we don’t play a winning style.

We have the best forward line in the league and some absolute x-factor players. We can score a lot and quickly when it comes off. It is our biggest strength and if we have any chance of winning in September it needs to be the ‘nothing to lose’ style. Think Melbourne’s style when they won. If we get into a shootout, who can match us?

We won’t be beating Geelong and Collingwood with the slow risk averse grind. Their class will rise with a short burst of 3 goals and the game will be done.

Play to our strengths. If we lose, we lose. Hoping teams kick 0.8 like Brisbane in the last quarter is not a recipe for a premiership.

Maybe

I think Nicks has to accept that if we play one style, we can be easy to play against (Scott workinng us out and changing the game plan).

There is little wrong with us minimising damage against the top teams when needed but we must be willing to flick the switch and catch teams out. We kinda did it against the Bears (be a long day in hell before I acknowledge that merger) in the last quarter but switched back too quickly ( which I guess is a hard thing to judge).

When we do that we will be a harder team to play against in the finals. Take their surge, their effort and when it amounts to a goal lead, strike back hard, we have the forward line that can rack up scores really quickly.

 

[pjcrows]

Just some quick stats of us vs top 9 (teams in final contention) vs the rest

Bottom teams we average
123.8 points for VS 67.6 points against
18.8 goals and 11.3 behinds for VS 9.6 goals and 9.9 behinds against
58.6 Inside 50's for VS 48.1 Inside 50's against.

Top 9 we average
69.9 points for VS 73.9 points against
10 goals and 9.9 behinds for VS 10.3 goals and 12.1 behinds against
52 Inside 50's for vs 53.4 Inside 50's against

So our scoring/defense mix is getting quite inflated by us averaging a +56 point differential vs the bottom sides. We're also seeing our scoring slashed in half vs the top sides, but it's at an inflated rate of being -6 on Inside 50's, but that causing a -8 goal scoring differential. You'd also say would probably be impacted by Nicks going defensive and slower, which makes it harder for us to score once we get it inside 50. Since the Gold Coast/Geelong games where we scored 90 and 100 we have a top score of 68 vs Collingwood and Brisbane.

You can also argue that the style gets us "close enough" vs the best sides, but as we've continually seen it then relies on everything going perfect for us, which rarely happens, and you could say we're not a team that subscribes to the "you make your own luck" theory.

Basically Port under Hinkley.

 

[MRB37]

Basically Port under Hinkley.

People would say it's a biased call, but I think we have another offensive gear to our game that Port hasn't ever had, but it's just a matter of it Nicks will have the courage to let us use it for longer periods. At the moment he's going uber safe because he's coaching for an extension.

 

[pjcrows]

People would say it's a biased call, but I think we have another offensive gear to our game that Port hasn't ever had, but it's just a matter of it Nicks will have the courage to let us use it for longer periods. At the moment he's going uber safe because he's coaching for an extension.

Fair call.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

We haven't scored heavily in our games vs top teams recently however that's seemed very much by design.

After the GC/Geel losses, we started playing a much safer, risk-averse style against strong teams.

Wars of attrition. Going up the line. Very few switches. Not playing on after a mark/free kick. Not trying to hit up options in the corridor. Grinding territory battles. The Collingwood game in particular was an offensive stalemate. Neither side risking turnover.

The only time things opened up was Q4 v Brisbane when we were behind.

In games vs dud teams we go back to our attacking, fast style and blitz them but we seem cautious to play in this way vs better teams.

Can we beat top teams in September in an arm wrestle? Can we beat top teams in September in a fast, open game?

Personally I don't think we can beat good teams without an element of risk.

We need to be brave & gun it when we have momentum or need to close a gap.... then play safer at other stages.

Needs a plan A & B during the same game, but i don't think we have it in us.

I don't like our chances if it close at the end against the best 3 sides as they will likely find a way to win. Prefer if we risk building up a decent lead.

 

[imagifED]

We haven't scored heavily in our games vs top teams recently however that's seemed very much by design.

After the GC/Geel losses, we started playing a much safer, risk-averse style against strong teams.

Wars of attrition. Going up the line. Very few switches. Not playing on after a mark/free kick. Not trying to hit up options in the corridor. Grinding territory battles. The Collingwood game in particular was an offensive stalemate. Neither side risking turnover.

The only time things opened up was Q4 v Brisbane when we were behind.

In games vs dud teams we go back to our attacking, fast style and blitz them but we seem cautious to play in this way vs better teams.

Can we beat top teams in September in an arm wrestle? Can we beat top teams in September in a fast, open game?

Personally I don't think we can beat good teams without an element of risk.

Can maybe do it once in finals but not three times. Too taxing, reliant on luck and there will always be an opposition who grinds better on the day. Believe that we need to overwhelm the opposition offensively to go far in finals.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Just some quick stats of us vs top 9 (teams in final contention) vs the rest

Bottom teams we average
123.8 points for VS 67.6 points against
18.8 goals and 11.3 behinds for VS 9.6 goals and 9.9 behinds against
58.6 Inside 50's for VS 48.1 Inside 50's against.

Top 9 we average
69.9 points for VS 73.9 points against
10 goals and 9.9 behinds for VS 10.3 goals and 12.1 behinds against
52 Inside 50's for vs 53.4 Inside 50's against

So our scoring/defense mix is getting quite inflated by us averaging a +56 point differential vs the bottom sides. We're also seeing our scoring slashed in half vs the top sides, but it's at an inflated rate of being -6 on Inside 50's, but that causing a -8 goal scoring differential. You'd also say would probably be impacted by Nicks going defensive and slower, which makes it harder for us to score once we get it inside 50. Since the Gold Coast/Geelong games where we scored 90 and 100 we have a top score of 68 vs Collingwood and Brisbane.

You can also argue that the style gets us "close enough" vs the best sides, but as we've continually seen it then relies on everything going perfect for us, which rarely happens, and you could say we're not a team that subscribes to the "you make your own luck" theory.

Haven't looked close enough at all the other games but straight off the top of my head, we played GWS, Brisbane, Collingwood and Hawthorn all in low scoring conditions, highest score in those games was 78. 4 of our 7 games gainst top 9 teams played in low scoring weather. Would not be surprised if that is at a higher rate than the other 8 teams have copped.

This could be inflating our defensive capabilities and to be fair hiding our scoring ability.

Nicks has said they made adjustments after Geelong. Wary though we have simply benefited defensively from low scoring conditions and Nicks is doing a victory lap at how clever he is when really conditions have played a big part.

Top 9 averages against each other:

Points for:

1. Geelong 93.66
2. Bulldogs 89.85
3. Collingwood 86
4. Fremantle 84
5. GWS 82.75
6.Brisbane 81
7. Gold Coast 78.57
8. Hawthorn 70.28
9. Adelaide 69.90

Points against

1. Adelaide 73.9
2. Brisbane 74.75
3. Collingwood 74.85
4. Hawthorn 79.57
5. Geelong 83.55
6. Gold Coast 84.28
7. GWS 85.5
8. Fremantle 86.16
9. Bulldogs 98

 

[Rank]

I see the AFL are looking after the Victorian contenders as usual.
The Bulldogs have a 9 day break compared to our 6 going into that game, the Hawks have an 8 day break compared to our 6 after a showdown.

I think we can handle it but it's a factor that that makes those 8 point games a little more difficult

 

[Rank]

The AFL would bail oit Pannell for the GF b4 this happened.

They already have Stevic

 

[Golumless]

This is the biggest frustration with Nicks.

He’s too afraid to lose so we don’t play a winning style.

We have the best forward line in the league and some absolute x-factor players. We can score a lot and quickly when it comes off. It is our biggest strength and if we have any chance of winning in September it needs to be the ‘nothing to lose’ style. Think Melbourne’s style when they won. If we get into a shootout, who can match us?

We won’t be beating Geelong and Collingwood with the slow risk averse grind. Their class will rise with a short burst of 3 goals and the game will be done.

Play to our strengths. If we lose, we lose. Hoping teams kick 0.8 like Brisbane in the last quarter is not a recipe for a premiership.

Conversely, if you're playing with the best defence against the top 9, you're playing a winning style of football. It only takes a look at how finals have gone over the last fourty+ years have stated that teams who aren't fantastic defensively and rely on offense to overpower teams are frauds. These things are won by being the meanest sons of bitches out when it matters and just doing enough scoring.

For all you said about Melbourne, their '21 flag was built on one the most overpowering defensive systems the game has seen (opposition had an xscore of 61). Pretty much goes for most if not all flag winners, with even the middling teams defensively throughout the year tightening up to by round 20 or so.

Equally, seeing how miserly Adelaide has become, it's hard to argue that defensive work isn't a strength either. That said, it also looks like it needs another preseason before it's truly ready to take it to the top end (and an elite half back flanker, though that's a problem regardless what we do).

 

[Rank]

Knocking off the Bulldogs would go along way to finishing top 4, it would make top 2 a decent possiblity.

We are going to need at least 16 wins for top 4, so if we lose to the Bulldogs that means we'd have to win 6 of the other 7.

Melbourne w
Bulldogs 40/60
G Coast 60/40
Port w
Hawks 60/40
Eagles w
Collingwood 60/40
North w


Win 7 top 2
Win 6 top 4 with our percentage
Win 5 just making up numbers

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Knocking off the Bulldogs would go along way to finishing top 4, it would make top 2 a decent possiblity.

We are going to need at least 16 wins for top 4, so if we lose to the Bulldogs that means we'd have to win 6 of the other 7.

Melbourne w
Bulldogs 40/60
G Coast 60/40
Port w
Hawks 60/40
Eagles w
Collingwood 60/40
North w


Win 7 top 2
Win 6 top 4 with our percentage
Win 5 just making up numbers

Against Bullies Max should play on Dale.

We also need someone to curb Richards influence. Perhaps Berry as loves to tackle.

 

[Rank]

Against Bullies Max should play on Dale.

We also need someone to curb Richards influence. Perhaps Berry as loves to tackle.

Yep the signs are there that Max is gonna be used in those sort of roles, finally a bit of proactively from the coaching group.

I hope

 

[kirky]

Just some quick stats of us vs top 9 (teams in final contention) vs the rest

Bottom teams we average
123.8 points for VS 67.6 points against
18.8 goals and 11.3 behinds for VS 9.6 goals and 9.9 behinds against
58.6 Inside 50's for VS 48.1 Inside 50's against.

Top 9 we average
69.9 points for VS 73.9 points against
10 goals and 9.9 behinds for VS 10.3 goals and 12.1 behinds against
52 Inside 50's for vs 53.4 Inside 50's against

So our scoring/defense mix is getting quite inflated by us averaging a +56 point differential vs the bottom sides. We're also seeing our scoring slashed in half vs the top sides, but it's at an inflated rate of being -6 on Inside 50's, but that causing a -8 goal scoring differential. You'd also say would probably be impacted by Nicks going defensive and slower, which makes it harder for us to score once we get it inside 50. Since the Gold Coast/Geelong games where we scored 90 and 100 we have a top score of 68 vs Collingwood and Brisbane.

You can also argue that the style gets us "close enough" vs the best sides, but as we've continually seen it then relies on everything going perfect for us, which rarely happens, and you could say we're not a team that subscribes to the "you make your own luck" theory.

Not wanting to make excuses but both Brisbane and Collingwood were in appalling weather conditions.

 

[Golumless]

Yep the signs are there that Max is gonna be used in those sort of roles, finally a bit of proactively from the coaching group.

I hope

Let's hope not. It's a waste of an excellent defender, and one we could potentially turn into a genuine game changer in his own right in a sector that we need more firepower.

It worked against Richmond but lets not lose sight of how little offensive threat Richmond poses and how big the gap has become between us two in terms of lineup quality. Against the Dogs, or other proper premiership aspirants, we're dealing with teams who bat deep with offensive options. That said, moving Max away from guarding the most dangerous small forward is something we should look at in the near future, and in particular giving him the kind of structured role we use Laird in at the moment seems the next step in maximising what we have.

The Max move forward was a fun week, and not to say having a week where you break up the monotony is a bad thing, but it's not real versatility.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Not sure why everyone is so keen to write off the team that plays more at the MCG than anyone else, is 2.5 games clear of 2nd place, and has lost one game since their Opening Round write-off which was by 3 points, and arguably on the back of a bad umpiring decision.

Even if Brisbane, us or Geelong make the GF, if it's against Collingwood it's 2017 all over again (and before you say 2018, Collingwood didn't finish a few games on top that year, they barely lost to a clearly better team).

only reason not have collingwood favourite is that they haven't won consecutive gf appearances in 80 years.

 

[Golumless]

only reason not have collingwood favourite is that they haven't won consecutive gf appearances in 80 years.

That and Collingwood have been the standout team since round 1. It's a serious achievement to play lights out football from March to the Grand Final in any year.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Not wanting to make excuses but both Brisbane and Collingwood were in appalling weather conditions.

GWS and Hawthorn too.

 

[Rank]

Let's hope not. It's a waste of an excellent defender, and one we could potentially turn into a genuine game changer in his own right in a sector that we need more firepower.

It worked against Richmond but lets not lose sight of how little offensive threat Richmond poses and how big the gap has become between us two in terms of lineup quality. Against the Dogs, or other proper premiership aspirants, we're dealing with teams who bat deep with offensive options. That said, moving Max away from guarding the most dangerous small forward is something we should look at in the near future, and in particular giving him the kind of structured role we use Laird in at the moment seems the next step in maximising what we have.

The Max move forward was a fun week, and not to say having a week where you break up the monotony is a bad thing, but it's not real versatility.

Horses for courses, You use your versatile players where needed, I'm not saying they'll try it but it's not a bad idea, limiting a prolific rebounder like Dale would definitely help the cause.

Versatility is a weapon, best use it to our advantage.