AFL 2025 Second Preliminary Final - Cats v Hawks Fri Sept 19th 7:40pm EST (MCG)

[ceebsaf]

True story. The Crows power stance really ****ed you guys up didn't it? At least you've got Matty Nicks. Good luck with Merrett and Petrecca. Nope you dont end up with Oliver

Fun fact: Adelaide haven't won a quarter in final since Q1, GF 2017…

Fun fact. Still no grand final for u.

 

[Hawkk]

Fun fact. Still no grand final for u.

And for you. I've been to 5 Hawthorn flags so Im good. That Crom though

‘We fly as one’

 

[STPer18]

GoPies1 after your injury trolling, we're very curious on your thoughts of about 44 Collingwood players missing the Grand Final next week?

 

[The Casey Cat]

Fun fact. Still no grand final for u.

No shit. I'd take winning two finals you perhaps weren't expected to and challenging hard in a PF opposed to losing two finals at home comfortably you're favourites in. Get lost.

 

[Hawkk]

Doubt it. With Day and Smith, different equation though. The two best - Lions and Cats - are going to play off in the big one, as they should...

Like clock work. The Pies are basically Hawks 2016 so you can put a fork in them. The Lions will need to make up about 4 goals to be square with Geelong

Re Collingwood, if its anything like us, post cliff the drop off will be rapid.

 

[PhatBoy]

Yup, not really arguing that cats don't deserve to be sitting in the GF now, as their finals series so far speaks for itself. I also agree it is hard to be completely fair when you have 18 teams and 24 rounds, but I do think we can do better than we do now, especially if we want to consider a larger window than a season over which things could be evened out.

Anyway, it will be an interesting GF now. Arguably the most talented team vs the most professional. Cats to go in strong favourites I guess , given the result the last time they met.

I am not sure how I feel about playing Brisbane. Kind of feel like we are more likely to have an easy win but also more likely to lose, if that makes sense.

They are suffering from injuries but still have the cattle that could blow the game open if we give them a chance.

I agree there are things they can do to change it. And if we win you can pretty safely assume next year they will make some mathematical assumptions about what will be the likely toughest draw we can get and hand that to us but you don’t know - maybe we draw Collingwood twice as part of that and they finally do hit the age cliff and go terrible and what happens then? The draw looks easy again for us. Adelaide take a step back again but we get them twice even though they were minor premiers. It’s a very very hard thing to get exactly right

 

[Hawkk]

No shit. I'd take winning two finals you perhaps weren't expected to and challenging hard in a PF opposed to losing two finals at home comfortably you're favourites in. Get lost.

Imagine spending all next year wondering if you have it in you to win a finals quarter. I doubt the Crom will have the soft draw, blessed injury run they had this year…and they'll also have a lot of teams doing work on their game.

I found this year hugely frustrating as a Hawks fan because most of our weapons from 2024 were completely nullified. Hopefully Oliver will push the needle for Radelaide.

 

[Distant Cat]

And for you. I've been to 5 Hawthorn flags so Im good. That Crom though

‘We fly as one’

Guy is relentless haha

 

[The Casey Cat]

Imagine spending all next year wondering if you have it in you to win a finals quarter. I doubt the Crom will have the soft draw, blessed injury run they had this year…and they'll also have a lot of teams doing work on their game.

I found this year hugely frustrating as a Hawks fan because most of our weapons from 2024 were completely nullified. Hopefully Oliver will push the needle for Radelaide.

Yea I'd be worried. Last time the crows lost a final they were expected to play better in they blew themselves up and missed the 8 the next 7 years in a row. Be interesting to see how they handle their capitulation(s) this year.

 

[Distant Cat]

I am not sure how I feel about playing Brisbane. Kind of feel like we are more likely to have an easy win but also more likely to lose, if that makes sense.

They are suffering from injuries but still have the cattle that could blow the game open if we give them a chance.

I agree there are things they can do to change it. And if we win you can pretty safely assume next year they will make some mathematical assumptions about what will be the likely toughest draw we can get and hand that to us but you don’t know - maybe we draw Collingwood twice as part of that and they finally do hit the age cliff and go terrible and what happens then? The draw looks easy again for us. Adelaide take a step back again but we get them twice even though they were minor premiers. It’s a very very hard thing to get exactly right

Ask Hawkk he knows. Umpires and stuff

 

[dean33]

Neither of these sides getting near Collingwood next week.

Never know, hawks might be in Bali as well.

 

[Mr Meow]

I think there is certainly an argument to be had that your sequence from round 9 to round 25 was unusual. There are not many seasons where a team could go for such an extended stretch with only one win over eventual top 8 teams, and still make top 4. Having the 6th easiest draw certainly helped that happen. Not Geelong's fault, and some aspects of how hard your draw is comes down to luck with ebbs and flows of teams from season to season (Port falling a long well was a big reason Geelong's eventual draw was so easy), but it is what it is.

1 double up against top 4, 1 more double up against a team that finished in top 8. You lost all 4 of those H&A double ups. You then had 4 double ups against teams outside the top 8 , and went 7-1 in those, with some massive percentage boosts. Those bottom 10 team double ups is what then allowed you to go the final 15 rounds of the season with one top 8 win and still make the top 4.

Top 4 is a massive prize, and I think it is a pity more effort isn't put into draw equalisation - at least over a multi-season window, if it can't be achieved properly within-season, which is certainly a challenge with an 18 team competition (and again, not Geelong's fault Port fell like a stone).

I was certainly one who was hoping the 'not tested enough' would come home to roost, but clearly Geelong have hit finals in very good form, so that didn't happen. Two teams demolished (one of which had beaten Geelong twice, both at your home ground and theirs), and on to the Grand Final. Geelong did seem a little flustered with the pressure we brought in the first quarter, but bounced back quickly, and then jumped away from us with relative ease. We have some obvious structural issues that Geelong were able to exploit, but Brisbane are a more complete outfit, and they handled Brisbane easily too.

I know this sounds like a massive whinge after a loss, but all credit to Geelong, they outplayed both their finals' opponents easily. More a rant against the poor attempts the AFL makes at getting fairer fixturing from season to season. One thing I think they can look at is trying to even things out over a multi-season window, using the eventual finishing places of the previous season as an input to future fixturing (i.e how tough a draw actually was, versus how easy it looked at the start of the season), and perhaps using fairness as the key metric, rather than an aside after all the commercial considerations are catered for.

What isn't unusual for a grand final side is to have a strong 7-4 record and healthy % against the best sides in the comp, including a 4-2 record against the other prelim teams.

Geelong has gone 6-2 against finalists in games away from its GMHBA "cheat" ground. A worthy grand finalist in every single respect.

 

[Mr Meow]

Neither of these sides getting near Collingwood next week.

Technically you were spot on.

 

[hk89]

What isn't unusual for a grand final side is to have a strong 7-4 record and healthy % against the best sides in the comp, including a 4-2 record against the other prelim teams.

Geelong has gone 6-2 against finalists in games away from its GMHBA "cheat" ground. A worthy grand finalist in every single respect.

Definitely worthy grand finalists off the back off the finals they've played. At the end of the H&A things were a little less clear though. 0-4 against GWS and Lions didn't look pretty. Your 4-2 against the other prelim teams was 2-2 before finals, and those two wins were 3 points and 7 points. Hardly a master class against fellow prelim sides prior to finals.

It is hard to argue a soft draw 'gifted' the wrong team a top 4 spot when you went on to two very emphatic wins, but it does raise the 'what if' of what might have happened if say Hawks or Lions got the 6th easiest draws instead of the 4th and 2nd hardest draws. If Lions get one more win, they finish 2nd, and play you in Brisbane instead of Melbourne. Hawks were very close to finishing top 4 (an extra win and 2% would have dislodged Pies), instead of meeting Crows in week 2 of the finals, we meet them in week 1, and if the result is unchanged we go to a Prelim rested instead of playing Geelong after two weeks of travelling, possibly avoiding Geelong completely (which given how easily they brushed us aside would have been a welcome outcome ).

The impact of an unequal fixture is amplified in years when the top 8-9 teams are all quite close. Having said that, you don't fluke making a GF, and the reason you are playing in a GF isn't the draw, but I think the fixture did make it harder for other teams, given what a prize top 4 is.

Anyway, GF spot for both sides in it well and truly deserved based on their finals wins. I have no issue with who has made the GF, I just wish the ladder positions at the end of H&A were based on a more equitable draw (or at least that it was made to even out over a multiple season window).

 

[ceebsaf]

And for you. I've been to 5 Hawthorn flags so Im good. That Crom though

‘We fly as one’

Thats a really cool story bro.

 

[ceebsaf]

No shit. I'd take winning two finals you perhaps weren't expected to and challenging hard in a PF opposed to losing two finals at home comfortably you're favourites in. Get lost.

I have no idea what you are saying.

 

[hk89]

I am not sure how I feel about playing Brisbane. Kind of feel like we are more likely to have an easy win but also more likely to lose, if that makes sense.

They are suffering from injuries but still have the cattle that could blow the game open if we give them a chance.

I agree there are things they can do to change it. And if we win you can pretty safely assume next year they will make some mathematical assumptions about what will be the likely toughest draw we can get and hand that to us but you don’t know - maybe we draw Collingwood twice as part of that and they finally do hit the age cliff and go terrible and what happens then? The draw looks easy again for us. Adelaide take a step back again but we get them twice even though they were minor premiers. It’s a very very hard thing to get exactly right

Yup, fair fixturing within the system we have is just plain difficult, but doesn't mean they shouldn't try harder.

Up until the first week of finals Lions looked on paper to be a biggest hurdle for you, with two losses against them, and the second one being fairly large (AND at the cattery). Given your recent result, I can see how it both gives you hope AND makes you nervous at the same time. Lions have something to prove they didn't have before the loss, but they are also the least rested team now, and and you say have injury concerns.

As a Hawks fan , I hold a lot less hate of Geelong than I did during the curse sequence (2013, and the 3-peat helped heal those wounds, and has mostly turned hatred into a begrudging respect), but I'll still be barracking for Lions . Looks like you're going in even stronger betting favourites against Lions than you were against us, but hopefully the game is closer than the odds suggest (from a fairly non-neutral neutral's point of view ).

 

[The Casey Cat]

I have no idea what you are saying.

Not surprised.

 

[ceebsaf]

Not surprised.

after the crows bowed out, i wanted either geelong or brisbane to win. Y u so mad bro?

 

[Mr Meow]

Definitely worthy grand finalists off the back off the finals they've played. At the end of the H&A things were a little less clear though. 0-4 against GWS and Lions didn't look pretty. Your 4-2 against the other prelim teams was 2-2 before finals, and those two wins were 3 points and 7 points. Hardly a master class against fellow prelim sides prior to finals.

It is hard to argue a soft draw 'gifted' the wrong team a top 4 spot when you went on to two very emphatic wins, but it does raise the 'what if' of what might have happened if say Hawks or Lions got the 6th easiest draws instead of the 4th and 2nd hardest draws. If Lions get one more win, they finish 2nd, and play you in Brisbane instead of Melbourne. Hawks were very close to finishing top 4 (an extra win and 2% would have dislodged Pies), instead of meeting Crows in week 2 of the finals, we meet them in week 1, and if the result is unchanged we go to a Prelim rested instead of playing Geelong after two weeks of travelling, possibly avoiding Geelong completely (which given how easily they brushed us aside would have been a welcome outcome ).

The impact of an unequal fixture is amplified in years when the top 8-9 teams are all quite close. Having said that, you don't fluke making a GF, and the reason you are playing in a GF isn't the draw, but I think the fixture did make it harder for other teams, given what a prize top 4 is.

Anyway, GF spot for both sides in it well and truly deserved based on their finals wins. I have no issue with who has made the GF, I just wish the ladder positions at the end of H&A were based on a more equitable draw (or at least that it was made to even out over a multiple season window).

We could play that game with the fixture every year though. Hell, Geelong supporters could start claiming flags for missed home finals back when our GMHBA record was far better than the MCG. At some point you have to get on with it and not make excuses.

With those 4 losses you mentioned it had quite a bit to do with them being our 2 bogey teams. Most sides have 1 or 2. We just happened to double up against them rather than sides we win against more - Hawthorn, Collingwood, Adelaide etc.

In any case at "worst" Geelong were a semi unknown heading into finals and then irrefutable proved their top 4 right with 2 dominant wins (the games both could have ended up 10 goal margins).

The pre finals bye negates the rest advantage, as proven by the many losing preliminary finalists who won their qualifying final since 2016. A slow start and faster finish is somewhat expected but the result relies little on the previous weeks. Adelaide were so soft in the SF as well.

The fixture had next to no impact on the GF matchup IMO.

 

[hk89]

The fixture had next to no impact on the GF matchup IMO.

I agree that based on how the finals have unfolded that we appear to have the best two teams of the season playing. I do wonder if the finals might have unfolded differently if other teams had a crack at top 4 via an easier fixture (gws given their record against Cats for example, although their fixture was already on the less difficult end of the spectrum). Top 4 (and top 2) isn't just about the week off, where games are played is obviously a big factor too.

Anyway, as I've said, Geelong have proven to be worthy grand finalists who certainly had our measure when it counted.

 

[Mr Meow]

I agree that based on how the finals have unfolded that we appear to have the best two teams of the season playing. I do wonder if the finals might have unfolded differently if other teams had a crack at top 4 via an easier fixture (gws given their record against Cats for example, although their fixture was already on the less difficult end of the spectrum). Top 4 (and top 2) isn't just about the week off, where games are played is obviously a big factor too.

Anyway, as I've said, Geelong have proven to be worthy grand finalists who certainly had our measure when it counted.

You can keep wondering but all that matters is your last paragraph.

I wonder if Geelong had Enright, Chapman and a fit Hawkins in the 2013 prelim if we would have shifted the result.

I wonder if Geelong had Hawkins, Duncan and Rohan in the 2019 prelim if we'd have changed that result.

You might wonder the same concerning Day, the fixture, Ginnivan's hairdresser or any other variable. It's pointless but can be used as a crotch if absolutely necessary. I think you're above that.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

The weird thing is, you're sooking about my pointing out your clear special treatment by your mates at AFL House. No doubt the phones will be ringing hot to make a tenuous exception for Stewart to play next week.

Most Hawks supporters would be too proud to display a quivering lower lip so blatantly.

You're actually a Tigers supporter, aren't you.

 

[Lyttelton Ranger]

Neither of these sides getting near Collingwood next week.

So true.

 

[hk89]

You can keep wondering but all that matters is your last paragraph.

I wonder if Geelong had Enright, Chapman and a fit Hawkins in the 2013 prelim if we would have shifted the result.

I wonder if Geelong had Hawkins, Duncan and Rohan in the 2019 prelim if we'd have changed that result.

You might wonder the same concerning Day, the fixture, Ginnivan's hairdresser or any other variable. It's pointless but can be used as a crotch if absolutely necessary. I think you're above that.

Yes, there are always what ifs, but the ones you've cited are a little different to the impact of the fixture.

Injuries to players is largely uncontrollable (other than making sure you have a state-of-the-art fitness and medical team). The fixture is under someone's control - the AFL's, and what I'm saying boils down to wanting the AFL to do a better job of evening out the fixture (probably over a multi-season window, given the difficulties of making it fair on a single season basis).

Personally, I think the idea that the lower teams get easier draws on paper than the higher teams is silly. Equalisation is a reasonable goal, but the fixture is the worst place to try to do it, and using it for equalisation is largely ineffective anway, as it produces things like Essendon making the finals every second year off their easy draw after a bad year, and then getting hammered by the stronger teams in the first week of finals.

It would be an easy fix to work out a rolling window fixture that made sure you knew you were going to play each side a fixed number of times over the window, irrespective of ladder positions, and all teams play each side that fixed number of times. You'll still get some teams that get lucky (like Geelong did), or unlucky (like Port) in a single year, getting an easier or tougher than average draw, but you will not be able to complain over a multi year window , at least not based on who you play, there would also need to be more effort to equalise factors other than the 'who' like the 'where' and the 'when' (i.e implementing a day's break metric, and sensible home ground rotations).

People talk like improving fixturing is impossible, but the biggest barrier is not really working out a fairer system, it is having the AFL letting go of using commercial interests as a major optimisation factor in the fixture, instead of having fairness as the main goal. We could still keep traditions like Anzac day, and Easter Monday in the fixture each year, given you'd probably still want to make sure there was at least one matchup between clubs each year, and still get a perfectly even matchup distribution over a multi-year window.

Anyway, it is partly a crutch, given the context, but also a pretty reasonable thing to expect from the AFL, and something you don't need to be on the losing end of a prelim to think is a good idea.