Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[LemmingMaster]

The more i watch footage of this draft the more I think the "official" rankings are completely wrong.

I rate players considered to be in the late first early second higher than some of the top 5.

I can see why Harry is getting bid on early. At the moment I rate him the best AFL prospect in the draft.

Many people are stating that there is a great variation in rankings, many clubs are going to walk out feeling like they've got a bargain. Beauty is certainly in the eyes of the beholder this year.

There are some players I love, which drift in the phantom drafts and rookieme and afl drafts.

 

[BlueBlood15]

I feel like the club really needs to strongly consider trading up somehow.

If we end up just using picks 9, 11, and what we had at 22 purely to match bids for Dean and Ison only, and/or to shuffle points to match a bid for Walker next year, I’m not sure how I’d feel about that.

It would seem like the returns from TDK, Silvagni, and Curnow are being used just to secure players who arguably should have been ours anyway.

I get that a lot of this is out of our hands, especially with the AFL constantly shifting the goalposts and I’m sure there’s a bigger picture at play, but it’s hard not to feel shortchanged.

We need to find a way to manufacture a third asset in addition to Dean and Ison from our draft hand and I think we will. Ultimately my preference is another 26 first round pick but it’s hard to see who is willing to sell a 26 first at this stage. Would also settle for another first rounder this year, whether via trade up or by letting our second pick slip back. Guys like Dovaston, Lindsay, Pickett, Barker etc will improve our list.

As you say the problem is we don’t know where Dean and Ison will attract a bid. The big wildcard is someone going early on Ison. If he can slip beyond 25, then I think that puts us in a great position to execute one of the above for that third asset.

 

[Soapy V]

Fully understand it is a reset but along way to go, whilst you indicated the list is better balanced, the offset is we have average rucks, no key forward underneath Harry, if he is injured we are in significant trouble in that space, Dean & O'Farrell will take a few years, definitely have added needed pace but on flip side it has opened some other gaps.

We are paying a premium for father & son players whilst the premiers bring in four ready to go players, not sure anyone can logically question that.

We were only a few goals away from the Grand final two years ago, clearly alot of issues between the playing group & coaching following that year.

What else could we do?

Throw a heap of money at names like Petracca, Humphrey or even Butters? Hasn't worked for us and that is when you are challenging and it would have likely cost us other players, picks and SC room. Where were we going to get another CHF or gun Ruck? It's not that easy

What we have done is reset. Another year to see young talent and then have picks, SC room to get players to fill specific roles.

With everything that has happened we aren't a serious challenger next year but with what we have done we could be in 2-3 years.

I would love to have more KPF or gun rucks or some more pace in midfield now, but we need to be realistic on how system works and what is available.

IMO, The way we have done it sets us up for next decade if we do it right

 

[josephone]

Zak Butters

9

Zak Butters

Age

25

Ht

181cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.3

4star

K

7.7

3star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

14.7

4star

K

8.9

4star

HB

5.9

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.1

3star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

hovers over all of this, in my opinion. If he's gettable (which surely the club will have at least a general idea of) then I think we'd need another 26 or 27 1st to add in to the mix.

So we could put through the two trades already mentioned: 11 to St Kilda for 50 and a 2026 F1, and give 9 to West Coast for 13 and 34.

We end up with 13, 34, 43, 50, 54 in this draft, which with my very limited understanding is enough to land Dean and Ison assuming the bids fall roughly as expected and not too early.

With three 2026 firsts and two 2027 firsts you'd think we have enough for Cody Walker and then to put in a very compelling offer to Port for Butters.

If Butters isn't on the table then you take a different path, clearly.

 

[ctwenty1]

I feel like the club really needs to strongly consider trading up somehow.

If we end up just using picks 9, 11, and what we had at 22 purely to match bids for Dean and Ison only, and/or to shuffle points to match a bid for Walker next year, I’m not sure how I’d feel about that.

It would seem like the returns from TDK, Silvagni, and Curnow are being used just to secure players who arguably should have been ours anyway.

I get that a lot of this is out of our hands, especially with the AFL constantly shifting the goalposts and I’m sure there’s a bigger picture at play, but it’s hard not to feel shortchanged.

Agree but arguably this is the way it should have always been - paying a fair price for quality.

What happened previously should not have been allowed and now its being unwound. I just hope the AFL stick to it when some clubs start complaining...

 

[The Bighouse]

We need to accept there will be an AFL encouraged massive increase in future player movement.
It would have been irresponsible to match SOS and TDK's offers...1 step backwards, 2 steps forward.

Though we did offer 4yrs but not the godfather deal from Dad & his uncles

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Though we did offer 4yrs but not the godfather deal from Dad & his uncles

Even that deal, considering Jack's fitness availability issues probably would have been regretable.

 

[El Topo]

Dean + Ison + extra is disappointing on paper, but given the new DVI for 2025 and AFL incompetence killing the market for future picks we'd have been properly rooted without the currency from losing Curnow and TDK

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Zak Butters hovers over all of this, in my opinion. If he's gettable (which surely the club will have at least a general idea of) then I think we'd need another 26 or 27 1st to add in to the mix.

So we could put through the two trades already mentioned: 11 to St Kilda for 50 and a 2026 F1, and give 9 to West Coast for 13 and 34.

We end up with 13, 34, 43, 50, 54 in this draft, which with my very limited understanding is enough to land Dean and Ison assuming the bids fall roughly as expected and not too early.

With three 2026 firsts and two 2027 firsts you'd think we have enough for Cody Walker and then to put in a very compelling offer to Port for Butters.

If Butters isn't on the table then you take a different path, clearly.

If I am Zac Butters, i wouldnt want the side I am going to, to give up that much to acquire me.. We made that mistake with Judd and lost our ability to support Judd with a side capable of challenging. IMO Port are going to be very poor this year and should finish bottom 4, they will want Cochrane with their first pick and the free agency compo is probably going to be as good a deal as Port could get. We perhaps do some creative trading to sweeten the deal like a pick downgrade etc but if Zac wants to come to Carlton he needs to be firm with Port and we need to hold firm that we are not trading up multiple first round picks for an uncontracted player.. If we hold firm Port will come to their senses that the top 5 pick compo is as good an outcome as they can achieve.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Absolutely...the changes to the DVI were necessary, but the timing always seems to screw us over

 

[Stamos]

We are paying a premium for father & son players whilst the premiers bring in four ready to go players, not sure anyone can logically question that.

I assume you’re counting Annabel. Who is the 4th?

 

[josephone]

If I am Zac Butters, i wouldnt want the side I am going to, to give up that much to acquire me.. We made that mistake with Judd and lost our ability to support Judd with a side capable of challenging. IMO Port are going to be very poor this year and should finish bottom 4, they will want Cochrane with their first pick and the free agency compo is probably going to be as good a deal as Port could get. We perhaps do some creative trading to sweeten the deal like a pick downgrade etc but if Zac wants to come to Carlton he needs to be firm with Port and we need to hold firm that we are not trading up multiple first round picks for an uncontracted player.. If we hold firm Port will come to their senses that the top 5 pick compo is as good an outcome as they can achieve.

But it's not up to Butters, it's up to Port. If they match the offer sheet Carlton put forward, then it's on us to provide a trade that is acceptable to Port. Given the interest in Butters I don't think we'd be the only club interested in him, so we've got to come to the party. Yes we don't want to give away the farm but at the same time with Tassie coming in draft picks will be worth less in future years anyway.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Dean + Ison + extra is disappointing on paper, but given the new DVI for 2025 and AFL incompetence killing the market for future picks we'd have been properly rooted without the currency from losing Curnow and TDK

If that extra is another 2026 1st or another 1st this year <15 (via slide back) I think its ok. If its neither then its a big fail.

 

[Stamos]

Dean + Ison + extra is disappointing on paper, but given the new DVI for 2025 and AFL incompetence killing the market for future picks we'd have been properly rooted without the currency from losing Curnow and TDK

I also wonder what our “disappointment” level would be if in March we had have known that Dean would be rated top 6 and Ison early-mid 20s?

 

[macky99]

What else could we do?

Throw a heap of money at names like Petracca, Humphrey or even Butters? Hasn't worked for us and that is when you are challenging and it would have likely cost us other players, picks and SC room. Where were we going to get another CHF or gun Ruck? It's not that easy

What we have done is reset. Another year to see young talent and then have picks, SC room to get players to fill specific roles.

With everything that has happened we aren't a serious challenger next year but with what we have done we could be in 2-3 years.

I would love to have more KPF or gun rucks or some more pace in midfield now, but we need to be realistic on how system works and what is available.

IMO, The way we have done it sets us up for next decade if we do it right

Agree with the direction Wright has taken, unfortunately for us the rule changes to the father sons means we are paying a absolute premium compared to Brisbane in recent years, which is limiting our flexibility at the draft.
Hopefully Austin can still find a way to bring in another quality youngster on top of Dean & Ison.

 

[josephone]

I also wonder what our “disappointment” level would be if in March we had have known that Dean would be rated top 6 and Ison early-mid 20s?

That's it. We are getting two quality players we otherwise wouldn't be entitled to given our ladder position. Hard to spin that as a disappointment.

 

[Soapy V]

If that extra is another 2026 1st or another 1st this year <15 (via slide back) I think its ok. If its neither then its a big fail.

I reckon it will be something like this. We could have 3 first rounders in 2026. That's huge for us and gives us massive flexibility

Even if we only get Dean and Ison this draft that is 15 or more players 21 and under. That is a lot for any list

With four spots left on list and Dean/Ison taking two I reckon we need a couple of more mature players added for 2026

 

[ctwenty1]

I assume you’re counting Annabel. Who is the 4th?

two ashcrofts and fletcher?

 

[marcmurphy3]

I reckon it will be something like this. We could have 3 first rounders in 2026. That's huge for us and gives us massive flexibility

Even if we only get Dean and Ison this draft that is 15 or more players 21 and under. That is a lot for any list

With four spots left on list and Dean/Ison taking two I reckon we need a couple of more mature players added for 2026

In terms of list balance, I think we are better off grabbing a couple of mature age players in positions we are short, then a 3rd youngster. Plus love the flexibility that another 2026 1st gives us for bid matching and trades. So that would be my preference.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

But it's not up to Butters, it's up to Port. If they match the offer sheet Carlton put forward, then it's on us to provide a trade that is acceptable to Port. Given the interest in Butters I don't think we'd be the only club interested in him, so we've got to come to the party. Yes we don't want to give away the farm but at the same time with Tassie coming in draft picks will be worth less in future years anyway.

Except that’s not how these things traditionally play out, he is uncontracted and will nominate Carlton as the only club he wants to go to..

Carlton will be giving up our 2026 picks for Cody Walker, so what is left will be the 2027 first round picks which could very much be picks in the late teens.. Port will come to the realisation that pick 5 in what is being described as a loaded draft is a better outcome than 2 x 2027 picks which could be anywhere from picks 10-24.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

I’m still hoping for another kid like a Dovaston, Lindsay, Pickett etc at the end of the first round between Dean and Ison.

I would to continue to add to our young core instead of adding mature players just for the sake of it and I don’t really see what’s out there that would really help us?

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I assume you’re counting Annabel. Who is the 4th?

They actually have two Ashcroft's, a Fletcher, Marshall and Annabel

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

Dovaston's testing is certainly eye-catching.

Some sort of athlete.

 

[ferrisb]

The article makes an implicit link that St Kilda are after our pick #11 so they can get Phillipou.

I don't believe St Kilda would go down the route of family connections and nepotism...

 

[Stamos]

two ashcrofts and fletcher?

Oh I thought they meant this year