Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[ferrisb]

Not sure about Ison.

Best talent available at our pick should be the approach.

He'll be bid on lower than he would go in an open draft.

We'll get a small discount on him.

He's the exact kind of player we need (finding targets, kicks to advantage). He's also a good size, strong mark and relatively athletic.

Not sure there will be a better talent available at our pick.

 

[ferrisb]

Many people are stating that there is a great variation in rankings, many clubs are going to walk out feeling like they've got a bargain. Beauty is certainly in the eyes of the beholder this year.

There are some players I love, which drift in the phantom drafts and rookieme and afl drafts.

Everyone says no other club will trade a F1 for one of 9/11 this year. That this is a weak draft and next year is strong and possibly the last pre-Tassie.

BUT every year, a club falls in love with a 'slider' and trades up/in to get said player.

If this year is more variable than most, I can easily see someone coming for one of our first two picks (if they still have value after a Dean match).

 

[ferrisb]

There are some players I love, which drift in the phantom drafts and rookieme and afl drafts.

I love the fact that you back your own opinions and don't just follow groupthink.

It's almost like you have mastered not being a lemming...

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I love the fact that you back your own opinions and don't just follow groupthink.

It's almost like you have mastered not being a lemming...

Your powers of comedic observation are inverse to your height

 

[AT97]

That's it. We are getting two quality players we otherwise wouldn't be entitled to given our ladder position. Hard to spin that as a disappointment.

Makes draft night a little less exciting but hardly disappointing.

 

[josephone]

Everyone says no other club will trade a F1 for one of 9/11 this year. That this is a weak draft and next year is strong and possibly the last pre-Tassie.

BUT every year, a club falls in love with a 'slider' and trades up/in to get said player.

If this year is more variable than most, I can easily see someone coming for one of our first two picks (if they still have value after a Dean match).

And there are clubs under pressure to get better. North is a case in point - will they be content to sit back and do nothing?

If there's a player they love at 9 or 11 then the temptation might be there, as there will be plenty of voices telling them they need to be aggressive.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

For

Everyone says no other club will trade a F1 for one of 9/11 this year. That this is a weak draft and next year is strong and possibly the last pre-Tassie.

BUT every year, a club falls in love with a 'slider' and trades up/in to get said player.

If this year is more variable than most, I can easily see someone coming for one of our first two picks (if they still have value after a Dean match).

I think the problem will be that those picks will need to be used for matching well before a club will know who’s going to be available at them

 

[ferrisb]

There are some players I love, which drift in the phantom drafts and rookieme and afl drafts.

Gimme three guys you think are underrated/drifting.

Where you value them vs consensus and why you like em...

#prettyplease

 

[ferrisb]

Someone put together an awesome table, with what would happen to picks 9 and 11 depending on where Dean was bid on.

Had scenarios for 0,1,2,3 Academy bids before Dean.

Posted in here or in the father-son/academy thread.

Anyone know who it was / where it is?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Everyone says no other club will trade a F1 for one of 9/11 this year. That this is a weak draft and next year is strong and possibly the last pre-Tassie.

BUT every year, a club falls in love with a 'slider' and trades up/in to get said player.

If this year is more variable than most, I can easily see someone coming for one of our first two picks (if they still have value after a Dean match).

Agree and a club like Port whose first pick is at 49, with Carr in his first year will prob get itchy feet especially with so many top SA kids projected in the first round.

North the other club without a high pick and Clarke will realise it’s now or never for him, he can’t afford another poor year

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Gimme three guys you think are underrated/drifting.

Where you value them vs consensus and why you like em...

#prettyplease

Josh Lindsey reminds me of Murphy Reid, was highly rated mid year and then started sliding for no particular reason other than clubs fell in love with others.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Someone put together an awesome table, with what would happen to picks 9 and 11 depending on where Dean was bid on.

Had scenarios for 0,1,2,3 Academy bids before Dean.

Posted in here or in the father-son/academy thread.

Anyone know who it was / where it is?

Father son thread, page something or other

 

[Bletch]

Someone put together an awesome table, with what would happen to picks 9 and 11 depending on where Dean was bid on.

Had scenarios for 0,1,2,3 Academy bids before Dean.

Posted in here or in the father-son/academy thread.

Anyone know who it was / where it is?

Polo's bid matching guide

There's also a link to this post on my sticky in the Free Agency/Trade thread.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Usually a good indicator how the top 10 will look.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

The more I think about it, the more I'd be okay if we just took Dean and Ison and get the **** out of Dodge.

Just comparing the highlights reels to previous years, can't say I'm that impressed apart from Robey, Dovaston and maybe one or two others. And of course Harry Dean. I actually didn't mind the look of Talor Byrne if we do take another pick lower in the order.

Anyway, get the points to match, get another 1st rounder for 2026, get Elijah back on track for a rookie spot, and Bob's your uncle

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Over the long weekend I was stuck on the couch crook watching CTL and Champs game replays. I've officially come to the conclusion that I'd like us to trade out of this draft.

For me there's only two players that genuinely excite me around our pick range and that's Grlj and Lindsay and I'm not sure either make it to our first pick. I don't think it's worth trading up using an additional first to get a Robey type despite the massive upside he displays simply because the 2026 and 2027 crops both look set to be considerably stronger drafts. If he did fall to our first however I'd take him in a heartbeat.

So aside from matching bids on Dean and Ison, I'd look to trade out into 2026 and pick up some late 30s or early 40s picks to try and pick up two of

Hugo Mikunda
Max Kondogiannis
Sam Allen
Louis Emmett
Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves (I suspect he slides)
Jacob Marron

These are probably the highest upside targets at that range. Allen, Mikunda and Kondogiannis aren't well known names but they're all just freakishly good athletes.

Allen in particular, unfortunately did his ACL early in the year but would be in the top % of athletes in the AFL but still has some refining to do on his skills.
41 inch vertical leap, 5:45 2km and elite agility to go with it. Get the right development into him and he could be a genuine star.

Speaking of development, our new development coach Ash Close has seen Kondogiannis and Allen up close as their coach so would know exactly what we'd be getting.

Re Allen -

“He's setting records with the GPS every week,” Close said of Allen.

“He's the best athlete I've ever seen in terms of football.

“He's outstanding with his work rate and leadership.

“We've been getting him up around the ball a bit more – he has no problems finding it and Coates League games are probably too short for him because if there was another quarter, he'd run people into the ground.

“It's exciting to think what he could do next year when he's playing 20 minutes and time on because he's a terrific athlete.

“He's got nice aerial as well so he's doing really well.”

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Probably an unknown to most, played a lot of Wing last year before graduating to the midfield this year pre ACL. His kicking and decision making needs a bit of work but he reminds me quite a bit of early days Dylan Sheil. Just electric movement when he gets the ball on the move and although he can be a bit erratic by foot he works as hard as anyone to provide an outlet option and get back to defend. At a low pick I can't think of many with more upside athletically and given his work rate on field I feel like it would be safe to assume he's a driven kid who will work his backside off to improve his flaws.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Over the long weekend I was stuck on the couch crook watching CTL and Champs game replays. I've officially come to the conclusion that I'd like us to trade out of this draft.

For me there's only two players that genuinely excite me around our pick range and that's Grlj and Lindsay and I'm not sure either make it to our first pick. I don't think it's worth trading up using an additional first to get a Robey type despite the massive upside he displays simply because the 2026 and 2027 crops both look set to be considerably stronger drafts. If he did fall to our first however I'd take him in a heartbeat.

So aside from matching bids on Dean and Ison, I'd look to trade out into 2026 and pick up some late 30s or early 40s picks to try and pick up two of

Hugo Mikunda
Max Kondogiannis
Sam Allen
Louis Emmett
Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves (I suspect he slides)
Jacob Marron

These are probably the highest upside targets at that range. Allen, Mikunda and Kondogiannis aren't well known names but they're all just freakishly good athletes.

Allen in particular, unfortunately did his ACL early in the year but would be in the top % of athletes in the AFL but still has some refining to do on his skills.
41 inch vertical leap, 5:45 2km and elite agility to go with it. Get the right development into him and he could be a genuine star.

Speaking of development, our new development coach Ash Close has seen Kondogiannis and Allen up close as their coach so would know exactly what we'd be getting.

Re Allen -

“He's setting records with the GPS every week,” Close said of Allen.

“He's the best athlete I've ever seen in terms of football.

“He's outstanding with his work rate and leadership.

“We've been getting him up around the ball a bit more – he has no problems finding it and Coates League games are probably too short for him because if there was another quarter, he'd run people into the ground.

“It's exciting to think what he could do next year when he's playing 20 minutes and time on because he's a terrific athlete.

“He's got nice aerial as well so he's doing really well.”

Where do you think Marron will be picked?(sounds very promising)

Is there any highlights of his season available?

 

[Coona Blues]

Over the long weekend I was stuck on the couch crook watching CTL and Champs game replays. I've officially come to the conclusion that I'd like us to trade out of this draft.

For me there's only two players that genuinely excite me around our pick range and that's Grlj and Lindsay and I'm not sure either make it to our first pick. I don't think it's worth trading up using an additional first to get a Robey type despite the massive upside he displays simply because the 2026 and 2027 crops both look set to be considerably stronger drafts. If he did fall to our first however I'd take him in a heartbeat.

So aside from matching bids on Dean and Ison, I'd look to trade out into 2026 and pick up some late 30s or early 40s picks to try and pick up two of

Hugo Mikunda
Max Kondogiannis
Sam Allen
Louis Emmett
Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves (I suspect he slides)
Jacob Marron

These are probably the highest upside targets at that range. Allen, Mikunda and Kondogiannis aren't well known names but they're all just freakishly good athletes.

Allen in particular, unfortunately did his ACL early in the year but would be in the top % of athletes in the AFL but still has some refining to do on his skills.
41 inch vertical leap, 5:45 2km and elite agility to go with it. Get the right development into him and he could be a genuine star.

Speaking of development, our new development coach Ash Close has seen Kondogiannis and Allen up close as their coach so would know exactly what we'd be getting.

Re Allen -

“He's setting records with the GPS every week,” Close said of Allen.

“He's the best athlete I've ever seen in terms of football.

“He's outstanding with his work rate and leadership.

“We've been getting him up around the ball a bit more – he has no problems finding it and Coates League games are probably too short for him because if there was another quarter, he'd run people into the ground.

“It's exciting to think what he could do next year when he's playing 20 minutes and time on because he's a terrific athlete.

“He's got nice aerial as well so he's doing really well.”

The closer we get the more hidden or rough diamonds are emerging. It is a fascinating draft, there will be stars coming out of it that are not Top 10 touted.

I would love a handful of 15-35 picks as a good judge will find some spectacular value.

I like plenty of “value” types, however, I just cannot ignore Lindsay, it will be daylight robbery if he gets past #10. His “slide” is ludicrous.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

2nd Charger is Kondogiannis. Similarly, a freakish athlete in terms of dynamism on the outside. Lacks a bit defensively in terms of strength and body work but when he gets the game on his terms he just slices teams up with ball in hand. Watched a fair bit of him this year due to Ison and I truly can't understand why he's not rated higher by most. Xavier Taylor is stronger through the core and a bit taller which definitely boosts him up the rankings a bit but I wouldn't have Kondogiannis far behind him in terms of impact on games, just more of an offensive mind than Taylor is.

Huge vertical, extremely penetrating and low flat kicking and he's got plenty of dash and dance to his game when he needs to get to some clear space. I can't see him getting past the mid to late 20s but by all reports he's ranked somewhere between 30-45 which I think would be a steal.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Zak Butters hovers over all of this, in my opinion. If he's gettable (which surely the club will have at least a general idea of) then I think we'd need another 26 or 27 1st to add in to the mix.

So we could put through the two trades already mentioned: 11 to St Kilda for 50 and a 2026 F1, and give 9 to West Coast for 13 and 34.

We end up with 13, 34, 43, 50, 54 in this draft, which with my very limited understanding is enough to land Dean and Ison assuming the bids fall roughly as expected and not too early.

With three 2026 firsts and two 2027 firsts you'd think we have enough for Cody Walker and then to put in a very compelling offer to Port for Butters.

If Butters isn't on the table then you take a different path, clearly.

Disagree...

Cody will cost the bulk of our first 2 picks next year.

Port aren't trading Butters for a late 26 1st and two 27 1sts... not even close. They will (rightfully I might add) demand our best 2026 picks... and we give those up, no Cody.

 

[Sector 7G]

Over the long weekend I was stuck on the couch crook watching CTL and Champs game replays. I've officially come to the conclusion that I'd like us to trade out of this draft.

For me there's only two players that genuinely excite me around our pick range and that's Grlj and Lindsay and I'm not sure either make it to our first pick. I don't think it's worth trading up using an additional first to get a Robey type despite the massive upside he displays simply because the 2026 and 2027 crops both look set to be considerably stronger drafts. If he did fall to our first however I'd take him in a heartbeat.

So aside from matching bids on Dean and Ison, I'd look to trade out into 2026 and pick up some late 30s or early 40s picks to try and pick up two of

Hugo Mikunda
Max Kondogiannis
Sam Allen
Louis Emmett
Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves (I suspect he slides)
Jacob Marron

These are probably the highest upside targets at that range. Allen, Mikunda and Kondogiannis aren't well known names but they're all just freakishly good athletes.

Allen in particular, unfortunately did his ACL early in the year but would be in the top % of athletes in the AFL but still has some refining to do on his skills.
41 inch vertical leap, 5:45 2km and elite agility to go with it. Get the right development into him and he could be a genuine star.

Speaking of development, our new development coach Ash Close has seen Kondogiannis and Allen up close as their coach so would know exactly what we'd be getting.

Re Allen -

“He's setting records with the GPS every week,” Close said of Allen.

“He's the best athlete I've ever seen in terms of football.

“He's outstanding with his work rate and leadership.

“We've been getting him up around the ball a bit more – he has no problems finding it and Coates League games are probably too short for him because if there was another quarter, he'd run people into the ground.

“It's exciting to think what he could do next year when he's playing 20 minutes and time on because he's a terrific athlete.

“He's got nice aerial as well so he's doing really well.”

What do you think about going for one of the brothers in the draft.
Holmes -would add pace
Darcy- Late developer who has been hidden. Will probably grow another 6 inches. Dog would probably match
Curtin -Thought he looked good against VC and has drifted from late first round

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I think the Pies are a good option to trade with:

9 + F4 -> Pies for F1 + 45 + 56.

After bids, probably leaves us with 14 + 38 + 40 + 49 + 50

So: 1024 + 277 + 238 + 86 + 71 = 1696 points all up. Should be enough to pay for Dean + Ison.

 

[Red Bull]

I like plenty of “value” types, however, I just cannot ignore Lindsay, it will be daylight robbery if he gets past #10. His “slide” is ludicrous.

As Tommy Hafey would say …
We just need someone to kick the damn thing !!

 

[jooce8891]

I feel like the club really needs to strongly consider trading up somehow.

If we end up just using picks 9, 11, and what we had at 22 purely to match bids for Dean and Ison only, and/or to shuffle points to match a bid for Walker next year, I’m not sure how I’d feel about that.

It would seem like the returns from TDK, Silvagni, and Curnow are being used just to secure players who arguably should have been ours anyway.

I get that a lot of this is out of our hands, especially with the AFL constantly shifting the goalposts and I’m sure there’s a bigger picture at play, but it’s hard not to feel shortchanged.

im going into next year pretending we drafted jagga this year