Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[ferrisb]

Hopefully after bids on a couple of academy players first making it around pick 6 or 7.

My kids would love this post...

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Yeh I thought 21, 27, 30 for 9 and 43. 54 would be great for us instead of the 43 but both picks will come in you'd think. Either way needs to be a point surplus for us.

If 30 is off the table, then I can’t see us including 43.

21, 25, 27, 43, 48 …

 

[ferrisb]

Particularly since they poached Yarran

They might have poached him, but he was already fried...

 

[carlton_99]

If 30 is off the table, then I can’t see us including 43.

21, 25, 27, 43, 48 …

If 30 is off the table don't even get the point of the deal. 21 and 27 for 9 is a point deficit. Would need to be us getting all 3 of their picks and us sending a late one back.

 

[BlueNath]

Some people need to reframe their thinking a bit. WC and Richmond aren’t going to bid on him unless they are willing to take him at that pick. So if a bid comes in at 2 or 3 it means at least some clubs rate him as a top 3 talent in this draft.

Rather than worrying about the rules and points, maybe we should be excited about the fact we’ve got access to a top 3 pick when we’re not anything like a bottom 3 team? And then again the same next year? This is literally what people have been complaining about re Pies and Lions for a couple of years ago. Now it’s our turn and we’re whinging about the points?

And lets not forget another top 3 pick with Jagga last year. So potentially 3 top 3 picks, 3 years in a row!

 

[marcmurphy3]

If 30 is off the table don't even get the point of the deal. 21 and 27 for 9 is a point deficit. Would need to be us getting all 3 of their picks and us sending a late one back.

If 30 isn't involved 13+34 from WC with a promise not to bid on dean is a way better deal.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

Maybe this guy could be our slider...heard good things...

 

[Mondyboy]

Using my terrible maths:

Let’s say we get 21, 25 and 27 (we should also get 30 because 21 and 27 for 9 is unders by 100 points and I can't believe we are that desperate--but let's assume we are).

If Dean is bidded on at the equivalent of pick 5 and noting that 21, 25 and 27 will move up a minimum of 1 spot with a bid on Zeke then it's:

1795 minus 10% discount=1615

20, 24, 26 is 1939 points.

Surplus=324 or pick 36.

Pick 36 and 43 would cover any bid for Ison (from about pick 27 or 28) with a potential of a little bit left over.

If we get pick 30, lose 43 to Essendon and obtain pick 46 from Norf...

After a bid on Dean at 5, we would end up with pick 29 (30 going up a spot after a Uwland bid) pick 36, surplus from the Dean bid, and 46.

If Ison was then bidded at 28 (which I can't see happening, but let's go with it), we would lose 30 and pick 36 would become pick 35 (going up a spot because we've lost 30).

35 is then free to use in the draft.

More realistically, 30 would be a free swing. 36 and 46 would then sort out a bid after pick 30.

Feel free to pick apart my maths.

 

[carlton_99]

If 30 isn't involved 13+34 from WC with a promise not to bid on dean is a way better deal.

Yep exactly. Would make no sense. I also haven't seen a report where it says just 21 and 27 so maybe it was someone making an assumption

 

[BluesForEternity]

Using my terrible maths:

Let’s say we get 21, 25 and 27 (we should also get 30 because 21 and 27 for 9 is unders by 100 points and I can't believe we are that desperate--but let's assume we are).

If Dean is bidded on at the equivalent of pick 5 and noting that 21, 25 and 27 will move up a minimum of 1 spot with a bid on Zeke then it's:

1795 minus 10% discount=1615

20, 24, 26 is 1939 points.

Surplus=324 or pick 36.

Pick 36 and 43 would cover any bid for Ison (from about pick 27 or 28) with a potential of a little bit left over.

If we get pick 30, lose 43 to Essendon and obtain pick 46 from Norf...

After a bid on Dean at 5, we would end up with pick 29 (30 going up a spot after a Uwland bid) pick 36, surplus from the Dean bid, and 46.

If Ison was then bidded at 28 (which I can't see happening, but let's go with it), we would lose 30 and pick 36 would become pick 35 (going up a spot because we've lost 30).

35 is then free to use in the draft.

More realistically, 30 would be a free swing. 36 and 46 would then sort out a bid after pick 30.

Feel free to pick apart my maths.

There are reports teams are looking at Ison in the first round. Marc McGowan’s mock draft in The Age had him going at 21. I think this is clearly a key part of why we’re doing this particular trade too.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Yep exactly. Would make no sense. I also haven't seen a report where it says just 21 and 27 so maybe it was someone making an assumption

I think some articles have run with those picks because twomey said end of first round/early 2nd round picks without specifying

 

[Bletch]

Hmmmm I have no idea how it would work without 30

I can't see how Essington would do a deal that got rid of all three of their picks. Even if we were to give 43 back - it's almost certainly not enough to cover Sweid, and they'd probably miss out on El Achkar altogether.

But agree, 21 and 27 alone isn't enough for us.

 

[BlueNath]

Yep exactly. Would make no sense. I also haven't seen a report where it says just 21 and 27 so maybe it was someone making an assumption

Fox Sports only mentioned 21 and 27 for 9

 

[Blue__Balls]

No denying they look good, but also feel we are paying a premium which is not ideal and restricting us from bringing in more quality young talent.
Interestingly Gold Coast has two top 10 players to bring in and look likely to obtain them, they look like they managed their draft hand better than us we gave away too many picks in the middle end of the draft which has restricted us.

I think the key there is list spots. We have very few available, and as you can only enter the draft with as many picks as open list spots, we've needed to position ourselves with early picks and a plan to trade back once the draft starts. GC have a few more open spots, so they're able to load up on more mid range picks in advance.

 

[carlton_99]

Fox Sports only mentioned 21 and 27 for 9

Yeh I think they are just assuming based on Cal's report. It would be a point deficit for us and would therefore make little sense. Especially if * bidding or not is not expected to matter as we think it's coming earlier from WCE/RIC.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

What if Essendon are chucking in a deal for 2026 also? Their second for our third or even just their second

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

What if Essendon are chucking in a deal for 2026 also? Their second for our third or even just their second

We don’t have a F3 (traded for Florent)

 

[Stamos]

Fox Sports only mentioned 21 and 27 for 9

That was just extrapolating from Cal’s tweet.
Chinese Whispers.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Nope - traded for Ainsworth

Getting North's 2026 2nd seems like a good move then. I expect we'll finish well above them.

 

[Stamos]

I can't see how Essington would do a deal that got rid of all three of their picks. Even if we were to give 43 back - it's almost certainly not enough to cover Sweid, and they'd probably miss out on El Achkar altogether.

But agree, 21 and 27 alone isn't enough for us.

Everything points to them not being that fussed about their academy kids, especially in comparison to pick 9.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Are our chances of drafting Lindsay pretty much 0 now?

I would suggest they were very much very low to begin with.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Not sure we’ll be getting that extra player in the 20s

The future second from North is the chip we can play there.

Can leave it on the table pretty much all the way through the draft, at some point another club is gonna run into a situation where the player they had a real hard-on for is taken before their pick, and they'll consider trading out and maybe back if their next preference is a player they think will be available late.

Someone like a Hibbins-Hargreaves could be a target for quite a few clubs with picks in the 20s or early 30s (pre-bid matching shuffles). If someone grabs him in the teens, there may be a few clubs prepared to trade a pick in the 25-30 range for a future second - presumably with a future third or something added in as well.

The option to flip the NM second for Pick ~25-30 and a future third, at a time when we know which players are available to us, is a good position to be in. That could be a Barker, Emmett, Pickett or Nairn selection if one of them slides a little. Or could get us first dibs on one of those later options that clubs are hoping will fly under the radar - Oudshoorn-Bennier, Wright, McCarthy or Allen.

Or....if we don't like what's on offer, we keep a future early second to help maneuver for Walker and/or draft another top 30 kid next year.

 

[Stamos]

The future second from North is the chip we can play there.

Can leave it on the table pretty much all the way through the draft, at some point another club is gonna run into a situation where the player they had a real hard-on for is taken before their pick, and they'll consider trading out and maybe back if their next preference is a player they think will be available late.

Someone like a Hibbins-Hargreaves could be a target for quite a few clubs with picks in the 20s or early 30s (pre-bid matching shuffles). If someone grabs him in the teens, there may be a few clubs prepared to trade a pick in the 25-30 range for a future second - presumably with a future third or something added in as well.

The option to flip the NM second for Pick ~25-30 and a future third, at a time when we know which players are available to us, is a good position to be in. That could be a Barker, Emmett, Pickett or Nairn selection if one of them slides a little. Or could get us first dibs on one of those later options that clubs are hoping will fly under the radar - Oudshoorn-Bennier, Wright, McCarthy or Allen.

Or....if we don't like what's on offer, we keep a future early second to help maneuver for Walker and/or draft another top 30 kid next year.

I think it will be much more we will have preferred an F1, and are settling with North’s F2 as the best offer.

 

[Opium]

We don’t have a F3 (traded for Florent)

So no future second and third at this stage?? Only two firsts to use on Walker.

 

[Stamos]

So no future second and third at this stage?? Only two firsts to use on Walker

We’ve got a 27 F3