100% - if it was undisputed, he would have won every possible award available, but he didn’t- again .
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Do Collingwood need to enter a rebuild phase?
- Thread starter LeBronco
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LOLOLOL.
Does a team that sneaks into the top 8 and gets blown away in the Elimination Final contend for the premiership? Ah, no.
A team contends for the premiership when they have performed well enough to be generally regarded as one of the best teams in the competition, and are genuinely good enough to win the premiership.
There are varying numbers of genuine premiership contenders each year.
A couple of examples using my own team:
Collingwood 2007 - despite finishing 5th, Collingwood ran the mighty Geelong team to a 5 point margin in the Preliminary Final, with Geelong blowing away Port Adelaide by 20 goals the following week. Collingwood were premiership contenders in 2007, despite finishing 5th on the ladder.
Collingwood 2009 - I felt Geelong and St. Kilda were a long way ahead of the rest of the competition in 2009, and the finals results showed just that. Despite finishing 4th, Collingwood were comfortably accounted for in both Major Finals by the eventual Grand Finalists. Collingwood were NOT premiership contenders in 2009.
Chip Scab1
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I'm not disputing whether he's a Top player, he is. But it's a bit rich using degen punters as the reason he is or isn't. Most punting firms operate on the 80/20 rule. 80% of their punters need to lose in order to make money.
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boncer34
Formerly "Dos23"
Why the lol? I was just asking a question.
So based on this how do you say
2025 - Contend
2024 - Failed to make finals. Didnt contend.
2023 - Obviously Contend
2022 - Contend
2021 - Didn't contend
2020 - Didn't contend
2019 - Contend
2018 - Contend
2017 - Didnt contend
2016 - Didn't contend
2015 - Didn't contend
2014 - Didn't contend
Last 12 seasons they've contended 42% of the time. So how is it that the balance of probability says they'll contend?
boncer34
Formerly "Dos23"
He won them all in 2009. Brownlow, coaches and players.
Bookies taking everyone for a ride considering his own brother and a 30+yo ruck have been rated better than him by his own club in 2 out of the last 3 seasons.
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Yeah not like he's the youngest 2x Norm Smith medalist in history and current GA medalist. He's not a total finals dud though, he did get 5 coaches votes.
Chip Scab1
Premiership Player
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Don't let facts get in the way of us interrupting the Corringwood wet dream. Geez mate.
Chip Scab1
Premiership Player
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Exactly. He's arguably the undisputed 2nd best youngster player in the game.
Will he have a better career than Sheezel or Reid or the Ashcrofts? Yeah possibly, wouldn't bet more than a pineapple on it though.
No there is both what I said and what you said. One poster (was his user name "strap on lad" or something) keeps going on about top 20 talent (but there are others as well).
Agree we have some okay players, a few who wont make it, but also some unknown elements (just like all lists) on our playing list.
Because they've contended in 3 of the last 4 years. Or 5 of the last 8 years.
What influence does our 2014 to 2017 record have on whether or not we contend in 2026?
Last edited:
Chip Scab1
Premiership Player
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You got Pendles a 2nd, you're winning! That's really all you had to do. Now in 6-12 you'll aim to get little Nicky-poo another and you probably will.
Daicos has already had 9 x top 4 finishes in the 3 major home and away season awards. 7 x podium finishes.
Total for Ashcrofts, Sheezel and Reid? 0.
In fact, 0 top 10 Finishes.
Can any of the 4 achieve 9 x top 4 finishes in the major awards across their respective careers? Time will tell.
But Daicos tracking for 25 to 30.
boncer34
Formerly "Dos23"
What influence does 2017 - 2023? You're right lets go most recent years, 24 and 25. 50/50. So balance of probability says it could go either way.
boncer34
Formerly "Dos23"
I never said that.
I was just pointing out he'd won all of them in a season.
You're very quick to comment about things never said instead of what was actually written.
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The context of the discussion was that Daicos can't be the undisputed best player/midfielder in the competition, because if he was, he'd win every award on offer. Instead, he's 'only' won 2 over the last 3 years, and finished in the top 4 on every other occasion.
Do you agree with the assertion that was made, that to be the 'undisputed' best player/midfielder in the game, you have to win EVERY award, EVERY time?
We will assess where we are at, near the end of 2026. If we are fading away then we may cut a little deeper with some of the older players eg Pendles, Howe, Sidebottom, Membrey and Frampton would be on the chopping block unless they have very good years. We might also look to trade a few eg DeGoey might be an example. But we have 2 year plus contracts for many of the listed players so we wont be losing more then the players I listed imo.
Now you are starting to speculate. Who knows what sort of talent generational or not will be on our list in a year or two. Maybe someone like McCarthy might be the next power forward for example. We have drafted 8 players over the last 2 years. None of which were top draft picks but internally most are rated. Let's see what happens. We have also picked up 4 players over the last 2 years from other clubs and this is generally how we maintain our run of making preliminarys finals every second year for the last 25 years.
Who knows we might pick up an OOC superstar in 2026/7 or develop our own.
I agree with what you are saying but in some ways it is looking better then 2021. At the end of 2021 we finished 17th and we were losing talent left right and centre. We traded out pick 2 in the 2021 draft and picked up an unknown at AFL talent in Nick Daicos. But at the same same time we had just brought in an upgrade in the coaching department and a massive upgrade in the fitness and recovery staff. At the end of 2026 we have a lot of old stars who are at or near the end. Some have played excellent footy in 2025 (Elliott), some have been good (Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Membrey) and some have been well down in 2025 (Crisp, Howe and DeGoey). Like every year a few will leave, some will play outstanding footy in a contract year and some will be okay. But overall they were all stars but generally haven't been for a few years and we still wernt far off it in 2025 (unlike 2021).
But we will continue to try to attract the right predeveloped talent to keep us there abouts.
You're obviously desperately reaching for a ratio <= 50%. Well done, you had a few options available, and you were able to find them.
Alternatively, you could have gone with:
2025 -> 100%
2023 to 2025 -> 66%
2022 to 2025 -> 75%
2021 to 2025 -> 60%
2019 to 2025 -> 56%
2018 to 2025 -> 62%
2017 to 2025 -> 55%
Pretty good 'balance of probabilities', wouldn't you say?
boncer34
Formerly "Dos23"
Every award? No.
But lets use your Ablett selected period as the benchmark for undisputed best player in the comp.
Over that 7 year stretch Ablett won 10 of 21 awards or 48%.
Nick's won 2 of 6 in the last 3 years or 33%.
Even by your own metric he cant claim the title.
If you aren't winning every single award, that means some people don't think you are the best, thus you are 'disputed.'
So I guess if GAJ won them all in '09, he was the undisputed best player for that year. Just like Dusty was for '17.
Neither were the 'undisputed' best player in the game outside of those years because if they weren't winning all the awards, clearly other people had different opinions about who the best was.
boncer34
Formerly "Dos23"
So you agree that your claim was false. Thanks Fadge.You're obviously desperately reaching for a ratio <= 50%. Well done, you had a few options available, and you were able to find them.
Edit: Sorry I see after telling me that you dont need to count 2017 you've decided you in fact can.
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