Review JLT2: Freo vs Eagles

[Docker82]

I reckon Sandi will be extending his contract shortly. Just a vibe. He usually signs early in the year. I doubt the club would say no either.

I love Sandilands. He’s the second best ruckman I’ve ever seen imo and narrowly. He’s important to the side and I wish he could play forever.

However realistically he’s not part of our next grand final side imo. We traded what turned out to be pick in the early 20s to get Darcy to the club and he’s one of the brightest young ruck talents in the game and needs to be given every chance.

 

[imperial_oz]

Karl is a tosser, loud mouth and a git....errrrr and a Wally

I've never rated him that high

 

[Fyfster]

Funny coming from a WCE supporter , There most highly rated player is an athlete not a footballer

 

[Scatter]

I love Sandilands. He’s the second best ruckman I’ve ever seen imo and narrowly. He’s important to the side and I wish he could play forever.

However realistically he’s not part of our next grand final side imo.

Yes he is, he's playing this year

 

[Fyfster]

Yes he is, he's playing this year

I would love it if that was the case , But it looks like we will not manage premierships for two of our greatest players in Pavlich an Sandi , Of course Pav has already retired , And Sandi i feel would have to go one more year ?2018 ???we should be swabbed if we win it !!

 

[dominguez]

I love Sandilands. He’s the second best ruckman I’ve ever seen imo and narrowly. He’s important to the side and I wish he could play forever.

However realistically he’s not part of our next grand final side imo. We traded what turned out to be pick in the early 20s to get Darcy to the club and he’s one of the brightest young ruck talents in the game and needs to be given every chance.

Our next Grand Final could be in 2018, it could be in 2118.

Pushing someone who is in our best 18 and I would argue among our 5 most important players into retirement because he's over 30 is ridiculous IMO.

 

[ShockersBoy11]

I really wanna see Tabs and Cam both light it up down forward this season. Both young forwards that I think can prove they can hang with the big dogs.

 

[PurpleEyes]

Our next Grand Final could be in 2018, it could be in 2118.

Pushing someone who is in our best 18 and I would argue among our 5 most important players into retirement because he's over 30 is ridiculous IMO.

I'm a huge Sandilands fan. I'm not sure that many Freo supporters actually value the difference he makes to the team.
For example, I just had a quick look at Freo's last 4 seasons. Sandilands played (ie. more than 70% game time, so not including games when injured) 58 games. Freo won 41 of them. That's a 70.7% win ratio. During those 4 seasons, when Sandilands did not play (ie. 70+% game time), Freo won 5 out of 34 ie. 14.7%.

(EDIT: just to add, in 2017, 70.7% wins from 22 home and away season games would have Freo ending the season on top of the ladder and 14.7% wins would have them on the bottom of the ladder).

 

[Docker82]

I'm a huge Sandilands fan. I'm not sure that many Freo supporters actually value the difference he makes to the team.
For example, I just had a quick look at Freo's last 4 seasons. Sandilands played (ie. more than 70% game time, so not including games when injured) 58 games. Freo won 41 of them. That's a 70.7% win ratio. During those 4 seasons, when Sandilands did not play (ie. 70+% game time), Freo won 5 out of 34 ie. 14.7%.

(EDIT: just to add, in 2017, 70.7% wins from 22 home and away season games would have Freo ending the season on top of the ladder and 14.7% wins would have them on the bottom of the ladder).

I wonder how different those stats would be if we had better back ups than Clarke, Griffin and Hannath. Darcy was an upgrade on those guys from his first game*.

*Clarke and Griffin were much better players in 2013 and before.

 

[Scham]

I'm a huge Sandilands fan. I'm not sure that many Freo supporters actually value the difference he makes to the team.
For example, I just had a quick look at Freo's last 4 seasons. Sandilands played (ie. more than 70% game time, so not including games when injured) 58 games. Freo won 41 of them. That's a 70.7% win ratio. During those 4 seasons, when Sandilands did not play (ie. 70+% game time), Freo won 5 out of 34 ie. 14.7%.

(EDIT: just to add, in 2017, 70.7% wins from 22 home and away season games would have Freo ending the season on top of the ladder and 14.7% wins would have them on the bottom of the ladder).

He's definitely a great player and we've certainly relied on him but I don't think those stats tell the while story. I wonder what you'd find if you did the same for Fyfe or Walters or Spurr or AP etc, etc. I wonder what you'd find if you worked out how many wins we had while Sumich was an assistant compared to since he left?

 

[PurpleEyes]

I wonder how different those stats would be if we had better back ups than Clarke, Griffin and Hannath. Darcy was an upgrade on those guys from his first game*.

*Clarke and Griffin were much better players in 2013 and before.

Where I think Sandilands is most under valued is in his negating effect on the opposition.
That is, it's one thing winning the hit outs, but the other side of that coin means the opposition aren't winning the hit outs. When Sandilands plays and Freo's midfield is at full strength, Freo have a massive chance of winning the clearances. That gives your team a big advantage.
If Sandilands can stay fit enough to play 15+ games this season, I'm very confident Freo will be playing finals footy in 2018.

But, as we saw last year in rounds 1 and 2, if the rest of your game plan is not solid, it won't count for much. Freo lost those first two games even though Sandilands won the hit outs and Freo won the clearances, but the team got monstered by their turnovers. Hence I'm really looking forward to this season with Lyon supposedly bringing back Freo's defensive brand of football that worked so well previously (seasons <=2015).

 

[PurpleEyes]

He's definitely a great player and we've certainly relied on him but I don't think those stats tell the while story. I wonder what you'd find if you did the same for Fyfe or Walters or Spurr or AP etc, etc. I wonder what you'd find if you worked out how many wins we had while Sumich was an assistant compared to since he left?

You are right in that, those stats don't tell the whole story. Stats rarely do. But it is further strong evidence of the advantage of Sandilands playing.
In the past, I have had similar looks at Pav, Fyfe, MJ, McPharlin ... but none of them had any results anywhere near as significant as Sandilands'.

In the past, I've also done a heap of statistical analysis which shows a very strong correlation between Sandilands playing leading to Freo winning the Hit Outs differentials, leading to Freo winning the Clearances differentials, leading to winning the i50s, leading to winning games.

But as I said, Freo lost their first two games in 2017, with Sandilands playing and Freo winning the Clearances.
Strong statistical correlations using past data doesn't guarantee future results. But it is still a good way to predict a more probable outcome.

 

[Arcassius]

Freo have traditionally also trained heavily with Sandi at centre bounces and his chemistry with the mids would increase the statistical probability of a hitout to advantage. I think the success of a ruck is mirrored by the effectiveness of the onball unit and vice versa. Can't judge them in isolation but as two parts of a larger whole. I don't dispute that he gets first hands often - just that isolated stats aren't everything in the broader picture.

Sandi might be strong now, but you'd expect there would be diminishing returns over the next few seasons as he slows down and recovers slower. So how much time do you invest in giving Darcy more time both in training as the primary ruck that the mids learn to ruck off, and in game experience that gives him strategic advantages over other rucks to enable him to take over from Sandi without a noticeable drop in our performance.

Not saying Sandi should be dropped, only that the challenge for the club is in managing the transition without kneecapping a performing asset, or stunting their replacement

 

[Righteo]

I really wanna see Tabs and Cam both light it up down forward this season. Both young forwards that I think can prove they can hang with the big dogs.

Looking forward to them embarrassing Doughboy McGovern in the derbies this year

 

[theGav56]

Looking forward to them embarrassing Doughboy McGovern in the derbies this year

Doughboy? Really. He's definitely a lump.

 

[Clems Knee]

Freo have traditionally also trained heavily with Sandi at centre bounces and his chemistry with the mids would increase the statistical probability of a hitout to advantage. I think the success of a ruck is mirrored by the effectiveness of the onball unit and vice versa. Can't judge them in isolation but as two parts of a larger whole. I don't dispute that he gets first hands often - just that isolated stats aren't everything in the broader picture.

Sandi might be strong now, but you'd expect there would be diminishing returns over the next few seasons as he slows down and recovers slower. So how much time do you invest in giving Darcy more time both in training as the primary ruck that the mids learn to ruck off, and in game experience that gives him strategic advantages over other rucks to enable him to take over from Sandi without a noticeable drop in our performance.

Not saying Sandi should be dropped, only that the challenge for the club is in managing the transition without kneecapping a performing asset, or stunting their replacement

If Sandi wants to keep playing, I think the diminishing returns will only kick in after he reaches 40, as long as he doesn’t get injured.
And he is almost certainly going to cop some injuries in the next year or 4.

 

[_007_]

Darcy is already good enough to play first ruck at some clubs, why tempt him? Get him in the side as much as is possible.

 

[theGav56]

Darcy is already good enough to play first ruck at some clubs, why tempt him? Get him in the side as much as is possible.

You mean the guy who extended his contract last year?

How awesome for him if he comes in because he is our number 1, and not because we pushed our number 1 out of the way.

 

[_007_]

You mean the guy who extended his contract last year?

How awesome for him if he comes in because he is our number 1, and not because we pushed our number 1 out of the way.

Did he extend it to 2030? Players that deserve games end up getting them somewhere. This is purely a response to the comments about Sandilands possibly playing to forty, not this year.

 

[wayToGo_]

Darcy is already good enough to play first ruck at some clubs, why tempt him? Get him in the side as much as is possible.

I really like him but not sure he'd be first in line at any other club just yet (assuming no injuries of course). I don't see the big deal rushing him - he's in his 2nd year, he still has a heap to learn and loves big Sandi showing him the ropes. Sandi retires and he has a mountain of pressure put onto him and doesn't have his mentor around the club anymore. For the long term I don't see how Sandi playing this year and even next year has too dramatic an impact on Darcy - he'll still only be turning 21yo in 2020.

 

[_007_]

I really like him but not sure he'd be first in line at any other club just yet (assuming no injuries of course). I don't see the big deal rushing him - he's in his 2nd year, he still has a heap to learn and loves big Sandi showing him the ropes. Sandi retires and he has a mountain of pressure put onto him and doesn't have his mentor around the club anymore. For the long term I don't see how Sandi playing this year and even next year has too dramatic an impact on Darcy - he'll still only be turning 21yo in 2020.

Yep i agree, a year or two more would be acceptable.

 

[Alfonz]

What Darcy did last year was extraordinary for a first year ruck. He is already way ahead of schedule. No need to push it. Use him to manage the old fella and hopefully prevent Sandi breaking down.

Can't see Ross doing the following, but I'd rotate them through 2-3 week blocks if possible (i.e. no injuries) and get about 9-10 games into Darcy. Wouldn't be stunting his development. In fact it might be better for him long term to avoid getting bashed every week. The ruck is brutal. Even if Darcy is a monster, he is still a kid.

 

[theGav56]

Did he extend it to 2030? Players that deserve games end up getting them somewhere. This is purely a response to the comments about Sandilands possibly playing to forty, not this year.

So, your thinking a 40 year old would keep him out of the side? Perhaps you should back him a bit more, because to be honest if that is the case he won't have developed much.

 

[_007_]

So, your thinking a 40 year old would keep him out of the side? Perhaps you should back him a bit more, because to be honest if that is the case he won't have developed much.

He isn’t hanging around to play WAFL. Oh and yes my distaste for Darcy is clear for all to see given that in my own words (and the original post you quoted):

Darcy is already good enough to play first ruck at some clubs, why tempt him? Get him in the side as much as is possible.

 

[theGav56]

He isn’t hanging around to play WAFL. Oh and yes my distaste for Darcy is clear for all to see given that in my own words (and the original post you quoted):

It is a tried and true development model that the young bull pushes the old bull out via performance. When that happens, Darcy deserves it, and it is time for Sandilands to go. I'm pretty sure Darcy is enjoying his opportunity to learn from one of the best ruckman in the land.