AFL 2018 - AFL Grand Final

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\West Coast |$2.35|$2.25|$2.20|$2.25|$2.30
\Collingwood |$1.62|$1.67|$1.68|$1.67|$1.65
\|line:7.5|line:6.5|line:6.5|line:7.5|line:7.5
\total score:|162.5|160.5|163.5|161.5|160.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\West Coast 1-39|$2.70|$2.75|$2.70|$2.75|$2.75
\West Coast 40+|$10.00|$11.00|$10.00|$10.00|$11.00
\Draw|$41.00|$56.00|$41.00|$51.00|$51.00
\Collingwood 1-39|$2.10|$2.25|$2.10|$2.15|$2.20
\Collingwood 40+|$5.50|$5.50|$6.00|$5.00|$5.50

ODDS AT 23.15 ON 22/9/2018

 

[Prochard123]

Was expecting it to be 50-50, both around $1.90, which would've been enough for me to bet on the pies.

The odds of $1.65 is actually spot on with my personal evaluation, no value here i reckon

 

[Sabbathen]

Fair old HGA to Collingwood off those odds!

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

West Coast suck in Mebourne. Not surprised.

It’ll be a cauldron of mostly Magpie supporters too so good luck.

Eddie McGuire would have been jumping with joy after the first half today.

 

[tigertigertiger]

Thought wc would be favourite

 

[Jugada]

Odds about right for mine. Collingwood were always going to go in favourite after belting Richmond and the match being played at the MCG

 

[Angus Young]

*ing hard game to pick...

Reakon west coast are the better team but we all know how interstate teams go on grand Final day at the G.

 

[Maveric]

Thoughts on shuey > crisp disposals (ned's) only hesitation would be that shuey may cop greenwood? flankers normally don't rack them up in grand finals

 

[the_big_sav]

as roughies for norm smith i like

hutchings - if he got the job on sidebottom
mioceck - sorta player to bob up with 4
cripps - similar to mioceck
WHE - see above

mid priced i like

hurn
sheed

unfortunately i feel the norm smith being done by media people has become a 'favourites award'. not that they have got it particularly wrong but media types these days can get sucked into naming the best or most popular players to try and keep everyone happy or not look stupid rather then judging the game on its merits.

 

[Sabbathen]

West Coast suck in Mebourne. Not surprised.

It’ll be a cauldron of mostly Magpie supporters too so good luck.

Eddie McGuire would have been jumping with joy after the first half today.

Not sure how they "suck" in Melbourne this season, they have won every game there this year and covered the spread 3/4 times...
Collingwood deserve to be favourites at the MCG no doubt, but at $1.65?

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

You just know players like Cripps, Jetta, Rioli and Ryan will freeze on the big stage, and to a less extent Darling.

 

[adammania9]

Expecting a left-field NSM winner this year, and I’m liking:

Hurn @ $51
Sheed @ $31
Crisp @ $31
Howe @ $34

 

[tigertigertiger]

Has a full forward ever won norm smith? I'd back Kennedy

 

[Jammer]

Well the cards have fallen nicely for the Pies.

Personally I thought they got the perfect storm on Friday night v the Tigers.

Got the tigers playing 1 final in a month.
Only one team this century ( Bris 2001 ) have won more than 8 in row culminating in a flag.
Got a dry night where one of Tigers weaknesses tall marking forwards could be exposed.
Got 2 key play makers in Martin and Astbury as non factors, who probably shouldn't of been there.
Had Cox play the qrt of his life take three huge pack marks and kick straight shutting the gate by half time.

Collingwood just happened to play awesome also

Onto the G.F.
The qualifying final opponents have met again in the Grand Final in 2003, 2005, 2006 and 20015.
Small sample size however the loser in all of them won the flag.

I thought the Pies were great v WCE in Perth.
They should get all the favours on Saturday in front of a big pro Collingwood crowd.

Their obvious weakness is Goldsack can be got hold of as Kennedy did in the last qrt in Perth
and Jack Riewoldt did on Friday night.
( No knock on TG as he is having to play underdone through necessity )

I don't think WC will get enough clean inside 50 ball for their twin towers to dominate.
Big key forwards rarely kick more than 2 goals in GFs ( unless its a flogging )

I've had a small play on Pies to win flag after their QF loss.
I will back them in the run in the first 1qrt if I can get my price which is $1.80

Thanks to everyone who contributed to this forum this season.... see you in 2019

 

[Sabbathen]

View attachment 562688

1997 Adelaide defeated St. Kilda by 31 points
1998 Adelaide defeated North Melbourne by 35 points
1999-2000 no Non Victorian finalists
2001 Brisbane defeated Essendon by 26 points
2002 Brisbane defeated Collingwood by 9 points
2003 Brisbane defeated Collingwood by 50 points


I can cherry pick completely irrelevant stats too

 

[the_big_sav]

Has a full forward ever won norm smith? I'd back Kennedy

ablett in 89? only one i can think of

 

[Vhaluus]

1997 Adelaide defeated St. Kilda by 31 points
1998 Adelaide defeated North Melbourne by 35 points
1999-2000 no Non Victorian finalists
2001 Brisbane defeated Essendon by 26 points
2002 Brisbane defeated Collingwood by 9 points
2003 Brisbane defeated Collingwood by 50 points


I can cherry pick completely irrelevant stats too

Every single one of those interstate teams that beat a Victorian side had list or salary cap concessions.

Like it or not the MCG is a vast advantage.

 

[Browney2006]

Anyone having a play on the VFL grand final today?

 

[Jugada]

as roughies for norm smith i like

hutchings - if he got the job on sidebottom
mioceck - sorta player to bob up with 4
cripps - similar to mioceck
WHE - see above

Wouldn't be an Eagles GF without someone here jumping on Mark Hutchings for the Normy

What's A11dAtP0w3R getting up to these days

 

[X_box_X]

Anyone having a play on the VFL grand final today?

Yep. WAFL too.

First in best dressed on the +39.5 point market on Betfair.

I have laid Subiaco -39.5 at $1.35 if anyone is keen. Line is currently at 63.5.

 

[X_box_X]

Line now -69.5 pts.

How can you promote your bets so your generous bets get matched?

I'm only hedging a bet cause no other book offers odds so I'm happy to take unders.

 

[iluvparis]

Wouldn't be an Eagles GF without someone here jumping on Mark Hutchings for the Normy

What's A11dAtP0w3R getting up to these days

Lol forget last night but meant to come in and post when the HUUUUUUUUUUUGE push for Hutchings to win Norm Smith would arrive

Staggered people are still considering it three years later!

 

[iluvparis]

Can't remember being less confident in a grand final result. Defaulting to Pies because of the venue but that is fully reflected in the price.

 

[adammania9]

Collingwood win into JJK 4+ goals paying a remarkable $12.75