In 24 of the last 28 years, a team who missed the finals has finished top-4 the next year. 33 teams in total over 28 years. Who will it be?

[RedWhite4Ever]

Except the Dogs haven't finished top 4 in the H&A under Beveridge

 

[hampton]

Sydney.

2026 top 4

1. Brisbane
2. Sydney
3. Adelaide
4. GC Suns

 

[Supreme_Chancellor]

 

[Boyohboywowwee]

Sydney

Gulden fit
Not playing half a side
Easy draw
Will probably get any 2 of may, curnow, pettracca, jamara or Oliver

Still top 2 or 3 sides in the comp

 

[demondavey]

Sydney
Carlton
Hawthorn
Brisbane
Adelaide
Gold Coast
Fremantle
WB

 

[CatsDan]

If Sydney make the grand final again it will be a waste of the best day of the year for neutrals. A guaranteed thrashing.

 

[Maddo11]

Sydney.

2026 top 4

1. Brisbane
2. Sydney
3. Adelaide
4. GC Suns

 

[demondavey]

If Sydney make the grand final again it will be a waste of the best day of the year for neutrals. A guaranteed thrashing.

Geelong hasn’t been that much better

 

[tiger_tough]

Sydney is the obvious answer. Then Dogs, then Saints.

 

[B4Bear]

If Sydney make the grand final again it will be a waste of the best day of the year for neutrals. A guaranteed thrashing.

Recent experience agrees from this year.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Sydney is the obvious answer. Then Dogs, then Saints.

Bulldogs based on what? We kept hearing about how they could win the flag in 2025 amd they could even make the 8. The continued to get overrated right up to their final game.

 

[tiger_tough]

Bulldogs based on what? We kept hearing about how they could win the flag in 2025 amd they could even make the 8. The continued to get overrated right up to their final game.

Potential?

 

[Mr.X]

Without a doubt St Kilda

They've probably had one of the best trade periods in recent memory.

2025 was a down year, expect they'll make top 4 and could be a flag chance all going their way

 

[Mr.X]

26 of the last 30 years it has happened now.

That means one of these teams will finish top-4 in 2026:

Western Bulldogs
Sydney
Carlton
St.Kilda
Port-Adelaide
Melbourne
Essendon
Nth.Melb
Richmond
West Coast

Who will it be?

Saints the definite favourite, they has strengthened over the off season .

Bulldogs could drop away or end up top 4, will be interesting to see

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Saints haven't improved much. Silvagni is injury prone. Same with Ryan. As for the others who knows.

 

[RUNVS]

I like to think the answer to this is Sydney but who knows for sure.

 

[TedDougChris]

Won’t be us unless Bevo finally thinks having a defensive structure is worthwhile

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

I like to think the answer to this is Sydney but who knows for sure.

Sydney seems, by far, the most likely if anyone does. Dogs certainly could. Port a sneaky chance if the midfield stays fit. And Carlton are, of course, Carlton so won't.

 

[bzparkes]

Saints haven't improved much. Silvagni is injury prone. Same with Ryan. As for the others who knows.

Ryan isn't particularly injury prone. Played 20 games this year. He may get a few niggles but he isn't going to miss half the season.

Not sure if he particularly moves the needle for them all that much though.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Ryan isn't particularly injury prone. Played 20 games this year. He may get a few niggles but he isn't going to miss half the season.

Not sure if he particularly moves the needle for them all that much though.

They're getting love for no reason imo.

 

[Blues177]

Sydney the most likely.

 

[RUNVS]

Sydney the most likely.

Fingers crossed as we have been out of the 8 for too long now. Who is going to ruin a grand final for neutrals if not us?

 

[GC2015]

Now that the finals format has been expanded to 10 teams, will this stat change? History suggests no:

2025: Adelaide 1st - 2024: 16th
2024: Geelong 3rd - 2023: 12th
2023: Port Adelaide 3rd - 2022: 11th
2022: Collingwood 4th - 2021: 17th
2021: Melbourne 1st - 2020: 9th
2020: Port Adelaide 1st - 2019: 10th
2019: Brisbane 2nd - 2018: 15th
2018: Collingwood 3rd - 2017: 13th / 2018: Hawthorn 4th - 2017: 12th
2017: Richmond 3rd - 2016: 13th
2016: GWS 4th - 2015: 11th

So not only do we often see a team that misses the 8 jumping into the top 4 the following year, it's almost always a team that finishes outside the top 10 as well. However, the two teams that did finish 9th and 10th the year before their big jump both won the minor premiership. Weirdly intriguing stat and it'll be interesting to see if it continues over the next few years with an expanded competition / finals series.

My tip for 2026: 12th placed St Kilda to finish 4th.