Do Collingwood need to enter a rebuild phase?

[Pleasedontfail11]

There's no doubting that 2020 was transformational for delaying the somewhat inevitable looking cliff. We turned our 2017 2nd rounder + 2020 4th placed finish into Jeremy Cameron, Max Holmes and Shannon Neale. Picked up I.Smith for free who somehow pushed out 3 elite years on the wing at his age. Ludicrously the next year we picked up Dempsey for next to nothing and soon after prime aged Mannagh + B.Smith would cost us a late 1st + 2nd rounder.

These are the kinds of moves Collingwood are going to need to pull, or have recently pulled, to sustain a run of top 4 finishes going forward.

Although Geelong have gotten a lot of solid players in the draft. Alot of their success comes down to both the draft (with late pick success) keeping them looking good for a few more years and excellent free trades. Smith has been an excellent pick up and without him in a few years you would be sliding down the ladder a bit with the retirements of Dangerfield, Stewart, Cameron, Atkins, Blicavs and Stanley coming soon.

Collingwood have a similar issue although we have picked up a lot of still relevant trades as well. Hill, Frampton, McStay, Schultz, Perryman, Houston, Buller and Lipinski are all recent trades with a few years left. Membrey also has 1-2 years of decent output. However I agree we do need to find a few players through the draft to replace our aging former stars. We recently picked up Shane Obree from the Geelong program and he seams to have a focus on more developed players who have shown good form against mature bodies. All of our midfielders we picked up in this years draft (3 of them) have shown this against VFL or SANFL teams. We have also found a few mature age recruits over the last few years that have been solid but we have lost a few to other teams (Noble and Richards). We have also recently recruited Steele (looked good at AFL), Long(shows promise) and Anderson who are in their early 20s. Agree we need to develop a few draft picks unless we can pick up some absolute stars through free agency or trades.

 

[ShereKhan]

The list was:
Cameron traded from GWS
Dangerfield traded from Adelaide
Smith traded from the Dogs
Bowes traded from the GCS

I think what he is saying is ignore the draft and trade in former top 10 picks only. Damn the advise from oppo supporters is all over the shop.

Bowes is a top-10 pick, that’s why he was listed.

If you think you’re contending for flags if Naicos is the only top-10 player on your list then not sure you Pie fans have much grasp on the history of flag teams.

Of course you need a mix of everything, but from history :

Lions 2025: McLuggage, Rayner, Ashcroft x 2, AhChee = 5

Lions 2024: see above minus Ashcroft

Pies 2023 = 5

Cats 2022 = 4 (5 with Hawkins)

Demons 2021 = 5

Tigers 2020 = 4 (not Inc Lynch and Riewoldt who went 11 and 12)

You get the picture.

Maybe the Pies will secure some more top-10 talent in trades or by finishing low on ladder.

But they ain’t genuinely contending for a flag if elite top-10 talent is not secured at some stage.

 

[Chip Scab1]

Not when you pay plodders like Perryman $900k !! And before anyone disputes this he activated tier 1 FA compo … so he’s, he’s on $900k or close to it. What a disaster of a contract.

That makes me feel better of our Jared Polec deal about a decade ago. Ridiculous.

 

[Giant Pete]

Adam Simpson absolutely cooked the West Coast list.
Didn’t McCrae talk about giving away his last $50 to a homeless guy? (Bullshit story) But should a guy who couldn’t manage his own finances be in charge of an afl list?

 

[Mynamesinuse]

That makes me feel better of our Jared Polec deal about a decade ago. Ridiculous.

Sort of debunks theory of players come to Collingwood just to play for the biggest club.
Paying overs helps

 

[bungalow_bill]

Bowes is a top-10 pick, that’s why he was listed.

If you think you’re contending for flags if Naicos is the only top-10 player on your list then not sure you Pie fans have much grasp on the history of flag teams.

Of course you need a mix of everything, but from history :

Lions 2025: McLuggage, Rayner, Ashcroft x 2, AhChee = 5

Lions 2024: see above minus Ashcroft

Pies 2023 = 5

Cats 2022 = 4 (5 with Hawkins)

Demons 2021 = 5

Tigers 2020 = 4 (not Inc Lynch and Riewoldt who went 11 and 12)

You get the picture.

Maybe the Pies will secure some more top-10 talent in trades or by finishing low on ladder.

But they ain’t genuinely contending for a flag if elite top-10 talent is not secured at some stage.

+ Daniher - pick 10

And multiple players picked in the 11-15 range - Wilmot,Fletcher,Bailey

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Adam Simpson absolutely cooked the West Coast list.
Didn’t McCrae talk about giving away his last $50 to a homeless guy? (Bullshit story) But should a guy who couldn’t manage his own finances be in charge of an afl list?

His job is to coach and he's doing pretty well at that, despite all the crap that comes out of his mouth publicly

 

[Carringbush2010]

Mannagh isn't young for a Best Young Player in the comp, but another diamond pick up that has helped us a lot. Dempsey from the rookie draft...absurd. Humphries from pick 183. O'Sullivan a pick #11 (exceptionally high pick for modern day Geelong) tall who has come on quite quickly. And we still would have probably been a 5-8 team without adding a (potential) star prime aged midfielder in Smith...on the cheap.

It is possible but a lot has to go right and be done right.

Yes and only Geelong can do it, no other club can, just won't happen.

So yeah Collingwood will fail miserably coz their unknowns are already spuds, just coz they're not high end draft picks.

The competitions fans look rightly at Geelong and marvel at just what you've said here, just keep contending, and have done for near on 20 years.

But not Collingwood, even though they've done exactly that, turned unknown spuds at the time, I'll use the end of 2021 as an example, not the first time, (like McReery for example) into back page news and flag winners.

Will admit no club has done it like Geelong, but you know what, the Pies aren't too shabby at turning unknown spuds into cult heroes. This has been the history of the club, if you look at all our flags, rarely have we had THE best list when winning them. We've got a culture of belief in the stocks we got and is a reason why this club also continue to contend, not as consistently as the cats, none the less a GF appearance on avg once every 3years speaks volumes.

 

[Mynamesinuse]

Yes and only Geelong can do it, no other club can, just won't happen.

So yeah Collingwood will fail miserably coz their unknowns are already spuds, just coz they're not high end draft picks.

The competitions fans look rightly at Geelong and marvel at just what you've said here, just keep contending, and have done for near on 20 years.

But not Collingwood, even though they've done exactly that, turned unknown spuds at the time, I'll use the end of 2021 as an example, not the first time, (like McReery for example) into back page news and flag winners.

Will admit no club has done it like Geelong, but you know what, the Pies aren't too shabby at turning unknown spuds into cult heroes. This has been the history of the club, if you look at all our flags, rarely have we had THE best list when winning them. We've got a culture of belief in the stocks we got and is a reason why this club also continue to contend, not as consistently as the cats, none the less a GF appearance on avg once every 3years speaks volumes.

That’s all great but the question is do they need a rebuild.

 

[Carringbush2010]

That’s all great but the question is do they need a rebuild.

And we are rebuilding, constantly. Have been since the clubs inception.

 

[Mynamesinuse]

And we are rebuilding, constantly. Have been since the clubs inception.

No not really been maintaining not rebuilding

 

[Corn Cobbers]

No not really been maintaining not rebuilding

Give it a rest champ

One GF every 3 years since 1897

While YOUR Saints...

 

[Peters_Nuts]

No not really been maintaining not rebuilding

Same can be said of “rebuilding” clubs this past decade like Essendon, Carlton
and North

 

[Carringbush2010]

No not really been maintaining not rebuilding

Then I guess it comes down to what one's opinion is of 'rebuilding'.

Bringing in new players in my mind is regenerating, rebuilding, whatever you wanna call it.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Bowes is a top-10 pick, that’s why he was listed.

If you think you’re contending for flags if Naicos is the only top-10 player on your list then not sure you Pie fans have much grasp on the history of flag teams.

Of course you need a mix of everything, but from history :

Lions 2025: McLuggage, Rayner, Ashcroft x 2, AhChee = 5

Lions 2024: see above minus Ashcroft

Pies 2023 = 5

Cats 2022 = 4 (5 with Hawkins)

Demons 2021 = 5

Tigers 2020 = 4 (not Inc Lynch and Riewoldt who went 11 and 12)

You get the picture.

Maybe the Pies will secure some more top-10 talent in trades or by finishing low on ladder.

But they ain’t genuinely contending for a flag if elite top-10 talent is not secured at some stage.

So the Pies made a mistake by delisting WHE (4). Now we only have Pendlebury(5), Daicos (4), DeGoey(5) and Moore (9 sort of) which doesn't cover the 5 we need to win a premiership. Sidebottom (11), Quaynor (13) and Perryman (14) are useless duds. We should have recruited Bowes.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Not when you pay plodders like Perryman $900k !! And before anyone disputes this he activated tier 1 FA compo … so he’s, he’s on $900k or close to it. What a disaster of a contract.

Your so right. We recruited Perryman who was only a pick 14 in the National Draft. We should have recruited Bowes instead.

 

[Mynamesinuse]

Your so right. We recruited Perryman who was only a pick 14 in the National Draft. We should have recruited Bowes instead.

You would have got a first round pick if you did on top of Bowes.

 

[Chip Scab1]

Sort of debunks theory of players come to Collingwood just to play for the biggest club.
Paying overs helps

Always. Anything more than $276k is overs for this slowish, tallish poor kick SF. It's a real Norf-styles Trade from the magpie.

 

[ShereKhan]

Your so right. We recruited Perryman who was only a pick 14 in the National Draft. We should have recruited Bowes instead.

Well yeah, Geelong got Bowes and pick-7, so yes, you should.

Don't get upset with the facts that flag teams all have 5+ top-10 picks in them. It probably goes to show a team needs a certain number of youngsters who were elite at underage level in their team to win a flag.

I don't think this is irrelevant data...if you do, that's no probs.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Well yeah, Geelong got Bowes and pick-7, so yes, you should.

Don't get upset with the facts that flag teams all have 5+ top-10 picks in them. It probably goes to show a team needs a certain number of youngsters who were elite at underage level in their team to win a flag.

I don't think this is irrelevant data...if you do, that's no probs.

Guess that explains why North and Richmond are about to win all the premierships. North have 9 top 10 picks and Richmond have 8. Maybe in a couple years they will both have 10-12 each.

 

[Mynamesinuse]

Guess that explains why North and Richmond are about to win all the premierships. North have 9 top 10 picks and Richmond have 8. Maybe in a couple years they will both have 10-12 each.

Maybe when they’re 24 plus yes.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Yes and only Geelong can do it, no other club can, just won't happen.

So yeah Collingwood will fail miserably coz their unknowns are already spuds, just coz they're not high end draft picks.

The competitions fans look rightly at Geelong and marvel at just what you've said here, just keep contending, and have done for near on 20 years.

But not Collingwood, even though they've done exactly that, turned unknown spuds at the time, I'll use the end of 2021 as an example, not the first time, (like McReery for example) into back page news and flag winners.

Will admit no club has done it like Geelong, but you know what, the Pies aren't too shabby at turning unknown spuds into cult heroes. This has been the history of the club, if you look at all our flags, rarely have we had THE best list when winning them. We've got a culture of belief in the stocks we got and is a reason why this club also continue to contend, not as consistently as the cats, none the less a GF appearance on avg once every 3years speaks volumes.

He’s not saying Collingwood can’t do it. He’s laying out how much has to go right for it to happen, and that it’s a tough ask.

Let's look at Geelong at the end of 2021 and Collingwood in 2025. There’s a clear overlap in age profile and in how the broader footy world viewed their future prospects at those points.

Holmes and Naicos are the obvious comparison. Nick is the better player, but it’s the cleanest like-for-like. Smith (Isaac) and Sidebottom, Selwood and Pendles, Jaicos and Cam Guthrie. Duncan and JDG. You get the idea.

From there it gets murkier. Do Collingwood already have their Shannon Neale and Sam De Koning? Do they also already have that group of consistent upper-tier role players aged 23 and under developing in Miers, Henry, Close, Guthrie, O’Connor?

Quaynor and McCreery probably fit two of those slots despite being a bit older. You could stretch it to Schultz, but then you also have to account for the Geelong older types at the time like Atkins, Kolodjashnij, Bews, Menegola etc.

Have they just drafted their Dempsey and Stengle? Will they find their O’Sullivan, Humphries, and Mannagh? Will they luck into a top-5–10 mid like Smith doing an ACL and resulting in a bargain, while still retaining picks to develop more kids?

And on top of all that, do they have Hawkins, Stewart, Cameron, Blicavs, and Dangerfield playing All-Australian level football to keep everything afloat during that development work behind the scenes?

The closest direct comparisons are Houston, Moore, Maynard, Elliott, and Cameron. All good players who are capable of doing similar, but I think it’s fair to say Geelong's core has them covered.

To be clear, this isn’t saying Collingwood can’t do it, or that some of these pieces aren’t already there. FWIW, I didn't think Geelong could do what they did either.

I don't mind West’s talent in the VFL so far, and Steele shows signs of becoming a solid role player to add to the above Geelong example.

Nothing is impossible, especially when it’s just been done - but it’s still a question mark until it isn’t.

It was a massive question mark for Geelong too, which is why the “Well we’ve done it before, so we'll be okay” argument isn't landing for many.

Even after navigating an even tougher transition a decade earlier, Geelong was still heavily criticised right up until about 18 months ago, when the narrative finally shifted that the club had achieved a healthier list profile.

 

[Chip Scab1]

He’s not saying Collingwood can’t do it. He’s laying out how much has to go right for it to happen, and that it’s a tough ask.

Let's look at Geelong at the end of 2021 and Collingwood in 2025. There’s a clear overlap in age profile and in how the broader footy world viewed their future prospects at those points.

Holmes and Naicos are the obvious comparison. Nick is the better player, but it’s the cleanest like-for-like. Smith (Isaac) and Sidebottom, Selwood and Pendles, Jaicos and Cam Guthrie. Duncan and JDG. You get the idea.

From there it gets murkier. Do Collingwood already have their Shannon Neale and Sam De Koning? Do they also already have that group of consistent upper-tier role players aged 23 and under developing in Miers, Henry, Close, Guthrie, O’Connor?

Quaynor and McCreery probably fit two of those slots despite being a bit older. You could stretch it to Schultz, but then you also have to account for the Geelong older types at the time like Atkins, Kolodjashnij, Bews, Menegola etc.

Have they just drafted their Dempsey and Stengle? Will they find their O’Sullivan, Humphries, and Mannagh? Will they luck into a top-5–10 mid like Smith doing an ACL and resulting in a bargain, while still retaining picks to develop more kids?

And on top of all that, do they have Hawkins, Stewart, Cameron, Blicavs, and Dangerfield playing All-Australian level football to keep everything afloat during that development work behind the scenes?

The closest direct comparisons are Houston, Moore, Maynard, Elliott, and Cameron. All good players who are capable of doing similar, but I think it’s fair to say Geelong's core has them covered.

To be clear, this isn’t saying Collingwood can’t do it, or that some of these pieces aren’t already there. FWIW, I didn't think Geelong could do what they did either.

I don't mind West’s talent in the VFL so far, and Steele shows signs of becoming a solid role player to add to the above Geelong example.

Nothing is impossible, especially when it’s just been done - but it’s still a question mark until it isn’t.

It was a massive question mark for Geelong too, which is why the “Well we’ve done it before, so we'll be okay” argument isn't landing for many.

Even after navigating an even tougher transition a decade earlier, Geelong was still heavily criticised right up until about 18 months ago, when the narrative finally shifted that the club had achieved a healthier list profile.

Holmes and Nick Daicos both play AFL footy, that is where the similarities end.

I forgot how delusional Geelong fans were.

 

[Mynamesinuse]

Holmes and Nick Daicos both play AFL footy, that is where the similarities end.

I forgot how delusional Geelong fans were.

There pretty close to be honest Holmes is dead set jet.

 

[Chip Scab1]

There pretty close to be honest Holmes is dead set jet.

They're not close. Jesus.

Holmes is a very good footballer. Little Nicky is a genuine superstar.