Do Collingwood need to enter a rebuild phase?

[nineteen eighty]

No. Here's why. I can expand on all of these points.

#1. Rebuilds don't work. The draft is not a viable way to re-build your club in the F/S, NGA and Northern Academy era.
#2. Collingwood is a destination club for mid-career players drafted to non-Vic clubs, We have brought in Bobby Hill, Dan Houston, Lachie Schulz and a few others as good examples of this. That is a Norm Smith Medalist and a few All Australian Blazers.
#3. We have too many good players, the Daicos brothers, Maynard, Schulz, Houston, Hill, Moore, Quaynor, Elliot etc etc. This is a club that has gone 17th - Prelim - Flag - 9th - Prelim - why would they gut their list to dwell at the bottom where there is no prospect of getting the best players anyway? There is no chance Collingwood would get a priority pick anyway so the draft is useless.
#4 Tassie. Rebuilding when you have an expansion club entering the comp is a recipe for disaster.

Midfields with tremendous depth are what wins flags along with excellent backlines and potent forward lines. Your midfield (other than Daicos) is far from where it needs to be. Ok we can include Josh in there alongside Nick. I struggle to see how the others will step up other than being role players. Daicos can't carry them all. Your backline (and structure) is good but was found out in the last third of last year.

Your forward line is average. Membrey and McStay as your key forwards...nothing more needs to be said. Your forward line was the worst of the top sides by hundreds of points last year and you lost the key structure forward (Mihocek) who also kicked 30+ goals last year.

And Hill is an unlikely starter for this year from what I am hearing. And he's key to your run and carry game.

Put aside your average forward line for now. Where is your excellent - very good midfield depth coming from? Moneyball?? I don't think so.

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

Midfields with tremendous depth are what wins flags along with excellent backlines and potent forward lines. Your midfield (other than Daicos) is far from where it needs to be. Ok we can include Josh in there alongside Nick. I struggle to see how the others will step up other than being role players. Daicos can't carry them all. Your backline (and structure) is good but was found out in the last third of last year.

Your forward line is average. Membrey and McStay as your key forwards...nothing more needs to be said. Your forward line was the worst of the top sides by hundreds of points last year and you lost the key structure forward (Mihocek) who also kicked 30+ goals last year.

And Hill is an unlikely starter for this year from what I am hearing. And he's key to your run and carry game.

Put aside your average forward line for now. Where is your excellent - very good midfield depth coming from? Moneyball?? I don't think so.

I hear the trendy thing to do these days is recruit a midfielder from the Dogs at a bargain price. It worked for Brisbane and Geelong, so why not the Pies?

 

[Fadge]

I hear the trendy thing to do these days is recruit a midfielder from the Dogs at a bargain price. It worked for Brisbane and Geelong, so why not the Pies?

We already have Lipinski, who is already a premiership player at Collingwood.

 

[thefrog]

I definitely don’t think Collingwood need to rebuild I think they just need to nail this years and next years draft.

They’re astute traders, their 2022 trade period went a long way to nabbing that flag, McStay, Hill, Frampton and Mitchell all contributed and they’ve had some shrewd pickups like Ned Long as well

I just worry about the younger players, they could definitely prove me wrong as some of the senior players are phased out over the next two to three years, but they want to get some hits in these next two drafts for sure.

 

[Sector 7G]

LOLOLOLOL.

'If you ignore the first quarter of the Brisbane v. Carlton Elimination Final in 2024, Carlton were the better team!'

LOL. Actually it was pretty similar in that Carlton played 1 good quarter and only kicked 5 goals in other 3 quarters, which made it hard to win the game. While it is better to have the 1 quarter earlier in the game, it doesn't change the fact that both sides were outclassed and the final margin flattered the losers who kicked very accurately.

Not sure why you are putting something quotes as that is not something I or anyone else has said.

 

[Pie thon]

At the end of this season, its really Howe, Sidebottom, Pendlebury and possibly Membrey to find replacements.
2023 Howe was missing for 15 odd games so when the team is in hot form replacements hold up. McInnes could be the replacement as the 3rd tall at 194cm.
Membrey could be replaced by either playing 2 rucks or 3rd tall. Just depends how Buller. West, Steele or FA/Trade works out.
He's not a critical player to replace.
The harder ones to replace that will affect the teams form are Pendlebury and Siddebottom. If De Goey plays at 2022/23 levels and plays 20 H&A season games hes like a replacement at their output.
Perryman can be switched to the midfield rather than being squeeze to half back.
There could be a breakout season from a fringe midfield/winger/ high HF in Allan, Steele, McCreery, Harrison, Lipinski ( some mid aged players have breakouts too)
With a million plus in freed up cap space a new quality midfielder could be recruited.

This is how it works out with Geelong too. Something along the lines of above.
Then. Repeat this again next year on the next lot of 3-4 players.
But there is no certainty on how its managed.
I'd argue its not a cliff thats coming but falling into no man's land as a middle tier team over the next few years. So if its managed well and you get your Butters FA style scenario like Geelong did with Smith, top 6 stays realistic for a few more years. If its managed bad, then the West Coast path could be taken.

 

[HeathySure]

this is absolute rubbish. collingwood do not have a moneyball recruiting approach. every year you chase the biggest & most expensive recruits - the complete OPPOSITE of moneyball.

the best was when you lot were calling Houston a 'moneyball' recruit.

2x reigning AA, 2x(?) 1st round picks, prime of his career and genuine superstar in his position.

yep, very moneyball. safe to say you guys don't even know what it means.

lol not sure you understand what money ball is but ok

 

[HeathySure]

Midfields with tremendous depth are what wins flags along with excellent backlines and potent forward lines. Your midfield (other than Daicos) is far from where it needs to be. Ok we can include Josh in there alongside Nick. I struggle to see how the others will step up other than being role players. Daicos can't carry them all. Your backline (and structure) is good but was found out in the last third of last year.

Your forward line is average. Membrey and McStay as your key forwards...nothing more needs to be said. Your forward line was the worst of the top sides by hundreds of points last year and you lost the key structure forward (Mihocek) who also kicked 30+ goals last year.

And Hill is an unlikely starter for this year from what I am hearing. And he's key to your run and carry game.

Put aside your average forward line for now. Where is your excellent - very good midfield depth coming from? Moneyball?? I don't think so.

we won a premiership with an ok midfield but ok

 

[HeathySure]

I definitely don’t think Collingwood need to rebuild I think they just need to nail this years and next years draft.

They’re astute traders, their 2022 trade period went a long way to nabbing that flag, McStay, Hill, Frampton and Mitchell all contributed and they’ve had some shrewd pickups like Ned Long as well

I just worry about the younger players, they could definitely prove me wrong as some of the senior players are phased out over the next two to three years, but they want to get some hits in these next two drafts for sure.

Good post from a carlton supporter. Shocked actually! As for the younger players, all teams have younger players who dont work out we just need 2 or 3 out of our many to sustain a decent team.

 

[nineteen eighty]

we won a premiership with an ok midfield but ok

If you really think you have a midfield that can compete with the top teams then what more can I say other than...ok.

 

[Fadge]

LOL. Actually it was pretty similar in that Carlton played 1 good quarter and only kicked 5 goals in other 3 quarters, which made it hard to win the game. While it is better to have the 1 quarter earlier in the game, it doesn't change the fact that both sides were outclassed and the final margin flattered the losers who kicked very accurately.

Yeah....

Carlton's performance in the 2024 Elimination Final was 'pretty similar' to Collingwood's performance in the 2025 Preliminary Final.

OMFG.

 

[Fadge]

If you really think you have a midfield that can compete with the top teams then what more can I say other than...ok.

Well it has in the previous few years.

And N. Daicos is only going to get better.
And J. Daicos is only going to spend more time in there.
And we'd expect to get more from JDG in there.
And we'd expect Ned Long to get better.
And we'd expect one of our young blokes to take the step.

But, but, but PLaYeR RaTiNGZ...

 

[CarmenSandiego]

lol not sure you understand what money ball is but ok

explain to me how the most expensive recruits - ala Houston, Schultz every off-season is mimicking sabermetrics pls.

 

[Fadge]

explain to me how the most expensive recruits - ala Houston, Schultz every off-season is mimicking sabermetrics pls.

Why didn't you ask about Hill, Mitchell, Long, Markov, Noble, Frampton, etc?

Oh that's right. It doesn't suit your narrative.

 

[HeathySure]

If you really think you have a midfield that can compete with the top teams then what more can I say other than...ok.

richmond also won a flag with an ok midfield. 3 of them in fact

 

[CarmenSandiego]

Why didn't you ask about Hill, Mitchell, Long, Markov, Noble, Frampton, etc?

Oh that's right. It doesn't suit your narrative.

you mean, picking up cheaper options occasionally like 17 other clubs? wowee much moneyball.

tom mitchell, brownlow medalist in his prime age, such a genius moneyball approach? ned long! mid-season pick who's played a few games, a true outlier! no other club does that.

 

[Fadge]

you mean, picking up cheaper options occasionally like 17 other clubs? wowee much moneyball.

tom mitchell, brownlow medalist in his prime age, such a genius moneyball approach? ned long! mid-season pick who's played a few games, a true outlier! no other club does that.

Noone else wanted either of them. Same with Markov.

And two of them are premiership players. 17 other clubs haven't all won flags with their 'cheap pickups'.

Isn't success an important element of sabermetrics?

 

[nineteen eighty]

Well it has in the previous few years.

And N. Daicos is only going to get better.
And J. Daicos is only going to spend more time in there.
And we'd expect to get more from JDG in there.
And we'd expect Ned Long to get better.
And we'd expect one of our young blokes to take the step.

But, but, but PLaYeR RaTiNGZ...

I'm not questioning the 2 Daicos boys. JDG...yes. Durability is an issue but a possibility. Pretty much stops there though for now. Not sold on Ned Long. And yes one of your young kids may step up...maybe.

It's high end elite kids though that carry you to flags when looking at some of the competition this year and over the next few years with Brisbane and the Suns leading the way. Freo's is strong. Bulldogs are dangerous...if they can sort out their defensive issues. Swans are strong in this space but they need to keep Warner.

 

[nineteen eighty]

richmond also won a flag with an ok midfield. 3 of them in fact

Where to start...Dusty, Cotchin, Edwards, Bolton, Prestia, Short...ok

 

[Fadge]

Where to start...Dusty, Cotchin, Edwards, Bolton, Prestia, Short...ok

Of which only Martin was an A Grader during 2017 to 2020.

 

[CarmenSandiego]

Noone else wanted either of them. Same with Markov.

And two of them are premiership players. 17 other clubs haven't all won flags with their 'cheap pickups'.

Isn't success an important element of sabermetrics?

what? literally every premiership team has these players.

geelong won the 2022 flag with tom atkins, tom stewart, tyson stengle, isaac smith, mark bliclavs, gryan miers - and probably more that i'm missing.

richmond won 3 with bachar houli, kane lambert, marlion pickett, josh caddy, jacob townsend, toby nankervis & shaun grigg - again, probably missing a few that fit thecriteria.

it's becoming more and more clear you've never watched a single minute of any other team.

and besides, collingwood are carried by their superstars that they got by father son, not their bargain pickups or shrewd trading.

 

[Fadge]

and besides, collingwood are carried by their superstars that they got by father son, not their bargain pickups or shrewd trading.

Yeah, Tom Mitchell and Bobby Hill had zero influence on the 2023 flag...

 

[Lockyer24]

He hit the ball and only ever had eyes for it and didn't drag arms, thus not a free.

Go and read the rules then come back.

Based on the rules it does seem you are correct.

Was it his intention to spoil the ball - yes.

Did he spoil it cleanly - no. (I know some dispute this, but I disagree from the slow mo).

However the rules seem to indicate that as long as you don’t drag the arm, as long as you are making a genuine spoil attempt you can basically do whatever you want, as he did to Elliott, without a clean spoil.

So, feels the umpires just adjudicated this incorrectly the majority of the year as many genuine spoiling attempts which prevented marks due to physical contact were paid as frees - often with the umpires saying “front on contact” as their reason for paying it. But there is no such rule?

That’s a worry.




MARKING CONTESTS

18.5.1 Spirit and Intention

The Player whose sole objective is to contest or spoil a Mark shall be permitted to do so.

18.5.2 Free Kicks - Marking Contests

A field Umpire shall award a Free Kick in a Marking contest against a Player

where the Player:

(a) holds or blocks an opposition Player;

(b) unduly pushes or bumps an opposition Player;

(c) deliberately interferes with the arms of an opposition Player;

(d) makes contact to an opposition Player from front-on and

whose sole objective is not to contest or spoil a Mark; or

(e) makes an unrealistic attempt to contest or spoil a Mark

which interferes with an opposition Player.

18.5.3 Permitted Contact

Incidental contact in a Marking contest will be permitted if the Player’s sole objective

is to contest or spoil a Mark.

 

[grayfox9]

Collingwood will drop, it's just a matter of when.

It's all well and good to say they just need to find replacements for X, Y and Z, but successfully doing this is not nearly as trivial as armchair experts think it is.
No replacement for Pendlebury, no replacement for Sidebottom. You don't just lose quality with those two, you lose experience, leadership and drive. Without 37 year old Pendlebury, Collingwood would've lost to Melbourne in the final round and missed top 4.

I remember Hawthorn fans 8-10 years ago saying they can keep challenging forever with guys like Litherland, Hartung, Burton coming through to replace the old guard, along with their expensive trades (Tom Mitchell, O'Meara, etc). Turns out they fell into the same old trap of overrating their young players. Losing too much quality experience with no youth made it near impossible to sustain premiership contention.

You can point to Geelong, but they are more of an exception to the rule. They picked up Dangerfield relatively cheaply, then Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

32

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

5 years later. If you can consistently recruit players of this caliber every few years and simultaneously back it up with good drafting, then yeah you can sustain a good team for a while. That being said, Geelong is in a similar situation with Dangerfield and Cameron 36 and 33 respectively, and no replacements. They couldn't fully replace Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

Age

37

Ht

197cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

2.1

5star

D

12.7

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.1

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.2

5star

either (Shannon Neale isn't even 1/4th the footballer).

 

[Scotland]

Another example of umpires putting the whistle away late in a big final. Only 4 frees were awarded in the last quarter of the 2018 GF...

It happens in most finals series, frees that would be normally paid all season are let go late in a big final.

It isn't just a Collingwood thing, but Collingwood plays in the most finals so most often involved.

Like when Jack Darling ran down Jeremy Howe in the goal square and it wasn't paid HTB.