Player Watch #12: Jy Simpkin [Part II] - staying at North in 2026 + won't feature in leadership group as Larkey set to be named captain

[King Corey]

It's not about who is the better player. It is about the way different players are judged on here. Some are judged only on their weaknesses, others on their strengths. All those three players butcher the footy equally, but only one gets this deranged response.

As an example, last year's game against Sydney, round 19 and Jy's first full game on the wing. He had a very good game, was our best (according to me and the coaches), 28 and 1, 9 marks, 800m gained. He basically ran his arse off for four quarters. I was expecting to come on here and read about how well we went in the new role. Nup. Just pages of crap about how his turnovers were killing us. He had 10, which is high, but not very for someone with 800m gained. Things like X not playing and us losing the hitouts 80-10, or Heeney having 13 clearances and kicking five goals, these didn't rate a mention. It was all Jy's fault.

That's well articulated mate.

Confirmation bias aside, I think people perhaps subconsciously view potential upside.

LDU has clear traits that could elevate him to elite in spite of his shortcomings.

Harry has had elite traits from day dot and if he can round out his game could be generational, in spite of his shortcomings.

Jy has some very strong traits but overall people are not seeing them as counterbalancing his weaknesses like the other 2.

 

[Chip Scab1]

Isn't Jy ahead of Harry in all these stats? Goals also.

Hermano, Harry was HBF. You'd hope so.

Ok, he moved into Mid2 last year, so was under pressure and at the coal face. I know you mean well but you're really comparing Apples with Lemons.

 

[perplexed]

Hermano, Harry was HBF. You'd hope so.

Ok, he moved into Mid2 last year, so was under pressure and at the coal face. I know you mean well but you're really comparing Apples with Lemons.

Harry spent little time in defense last season. He and Jy both spent time on the ball or wing but otherwise played as high half forwards pushing up to clearances for most of the year. However, I agree that Harry did play more inside and Jy more outside (which seems kind of backwards).

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Metres gained is such a limited stat.

What would be great to see is metres gained which resulted in retention of the footy. Whilst also limited (bloke in the receiving end drops the mark and gets turned over) it would be a far greater indicator of impact.

 

[Themanbun]

Metres gained is such a limited stat.

What would be great to see is metres gained which resulted in retention of the footy. Whilst also limited (bloke in the receiving end drops the mark and gets turned over) it would be a far greater indicator of impact.

Wheelo has some pretty cool stats

 

[Chip Scab1]

Metres gained is such a limited stat.

What would be great to see is metres gained which resulted in retention of the footy. Whilst also limited

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_player_profile.html?id=140cb1e

Thanks@manbun

 

[perplexed]

Metres gained is such a limited stat.

What would be great to see is metres gained which resulted in retention of the footy. Whilst also limited (bloke in the receiving end drops the mark and gets turned over) it would be a far greater indicator of impact.

They actually have such a stat, it's called Retained Metres gained.

Here are our top twenty. Note that Daniel and McKercher's figures are quite inflated because they share the kick-ins.

 

[perplexed]

Further to this. Considering Jy spent much of the year at half-forward, his numbers are quite high. These figures are dominated by running defenders and full-time mids. Here are the league-wide figures for mid/forwards. I've taken out players with less than 10 games.

 

[amaz199]

It was a pretty horrid day with a strong wind and rain coming down sideways. Let's see what he does under the roof.

I think his new role will help him adjust. Becoming a goal kicking winger might be his best chance.

 

[Merlin007]

It was a pretty horrid day with a strong wind and rain coming down sideways. Let's see what he does under the roof.

I think his new role will help him adjust. Becoming a goal kicking winger might be his best chance.

I think a lot of the commentary around Jy is driven by the hurt associated with him looking around, more so than his alleged deficiencies (the perfect footballer is yet to be borne)

End of the day, we have three elite runners capable of playing modern wing - Jy, Stephens and Scott.

Others will spend time there (eg Duursma did last week), but for sustained running power, it's those three

 

[Roosurgence]

Harry spent little time in defense last season. He and Jy both spent time on the ball or wing but otherwise played as high half forwards pushing up to clearances for most of the year. However, I agree that Harry did play more inside and Jy more outside (which seems kind of backwards).

So you point out that Harry plays more inside but then use him to try and support an argument on turnover numbers?!?!

So the guy on the outside who has time and space is turning it over as much as the guy working with inside under pressure, correct?

So you are actually supporting the argument that Jy is a massive butcher because he has more time and space to make a decision and execute and still manages to butcher it.

Maybe he should stop running himself into trouble and take the first option on offer.

 

[Masked Avenger]

It may be what you see, but it really isn't supported by the stats. You are seeing what you are looking for and expect to see. Harry's disposal efficiency is marginally better and he turns it over a little less per disposal, but this isn't surprising as many of his disposals are junk and Jy is generally trying to move the ball forward. Both have an awful retention rating, and Harry's is worse.

And I mention metres gained in relation to turnovers because there is a strong correlation between the two. From that game it isn't surprising that Jy's turnover numbers are high because his metres gained were huge. That is not to say he doesn't butcher it, he does, but compared to our other mids, no more so. Overall, Harry turns the ball over more than Jy and gains less territory in doing it. I don't expect this to continue, Harry is too talented and diligent a player not to get this sorted out. But that many seem to only notice one of these players butchering it is curious.

I think your comparison between Jy and Harry highlights how misleading stats can be in terms of relative value of players.

I'm not down on Jy like others, he's courageous and is AFL quality (can't be said about all our regular players) but there's a whole lot that stats can't cover.

Composure, contest difficulty, game sense, sensing moments, urgency, clutch decision making, pushing back on opposition momentum, opposition attention, higher risk disposal etc

Harry separates himself from Jy comfortably on those intangibles.

To be fair, no others come close to Harry on those attributes.

I think FOS is showing signs though.

 

[perplexed]

So you point out that Harry plays more inside but then use him to try and support an argument on turnover numbers?!?!

So the guy on the outside who has time and space is turning it over as much as the guy working with inside under pressure, correct?

So you are actually supporting the argument that Jy is a massive butcher because he has more time and space to make a decision and execute and still manages to butcher it.

Maybe he should stop running himself into trouble and take the first option on offer.

I think the stat you are looking for is retention rating. This takes into account the difficulty of the kick. Both players have crap numbers. Harry's is worse.

 

[Makeshift Park]

I think the stat you are looking for is retention rate. This takes into account the difficulty of the kick. Both players have crap numbers. Harry's is worse.

Wheelo says retention rate is "a measure of how often a player’s kicks are retained by a teammate compared to expectation."

So isn't the discrepancy accounted for by how Simpkin often tries overly ambitious kicks that aren't expected to be retained?

I note Sheezel has a higher disposal retention percentage of the two as well.

Having said that... as much as Simpkin's decision making can piss me off, I do appreciate how you're batting against a prevailing consensus in defence of one of our own here. Even if I disagree.

 

[Themanbun]

Wheelo says retention rate is "a measure of how often a player’s kicks are retained by a teammate compared to expectation."

So isn't the discrepancy accounted for by how Simpkin often tries overly ambitious kicks that aren't expected to be retained?

I note Sheezel has a higher disposal retention percentage of the two as well.

Having said that... as much as Simpkin's decision making can piss me off, I do appreciate how you're batting against a prevailing consensus in defence of one of our own here. Even if I disagree.

They have a disposal retention rate as well, which is just raw retention.

 

[perplexed]

Wheelo says retention rate is "a measure of how often a player’s kicks are retained by a teammate compared to expectation."

So isn't the discrepancy accounted for by how Simpkin often tries overly ambitious kicks that aren't expected to be retained?

I note Sheezel has a higher disposal retention percentage of the two as well.

Having said that... as much as Simpkin's decision making can piss me off, I do appreciate how you're batting against a prevailing consensus in defence of one of our own here. Even if I disagree.

All's good, I enjoy these exchanges.

Stats don't tell you everything, but they can expose some misconceptions. Jy does try more ambitious kicks than Harry and more ambitious than he should. But this doesn't seem to be leading to more turnovers. Jy kicks it 3.1 times per turnover Harry 3.0. I know not all turnovers are from kicks, but most are.

The disposal retention numbers can be misleading. The two players are equal but very low for kick efficiency and Jy is slightly ahead in handball efficiency. However Harry has better overall disposal efficiency and retention, this is simply because he handballs more often and when he does is going backwards (his handball metres gained for the year were negative).

FWIW, Wheelo also has an equity rating for ball use which takes into account the same weightings as the AFL player ratings. That is, it highly values some stats like goals, goals assists, and score involvements, but doesn't care about uncontested possessions that lead nowhere. Prepare yourself ..................

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

All's good, I enjoy these exchanges.

Stats don't tell you everything, but they can expose some misconceptions. Jy does try more ambitious kicks than Harry and more ambitious than he should. But this doesn't seem to be leading to more turnovers. Jy kicks it 3.1 times per turnover Harry 3.0. I know not all turnovers are from kicks, but most are.

The disposal retention numbers can be misleading. The two players are equal but very low for kick efficiency and Jy is slightly ahead in handball efficiency. However Harry has better overall disposal efficiency and retention, this is simply because he handballs more often and when he does is going backwards (his handball metres gained for the year were negative).

FWIW, Wheelo also has an equity rating for ball use which takes into account the same weightings as the AFL player ratings. That is, it highly values some stats like goals, goals assists, and score involvements, but doesn't care about uncontested possessions that lead nowhere. Prepare yourself ..................

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What this says to me is that LDU is an absolute jet.

 

[Roosurgence]

What this says to me is that LDU is an absolute jet.

All it says to me is that this team is full of ball butchers. No wonder our defence gets butt ****ed on a weekly basis considering the amount of opposition possession chains on the back of turnover they are dealing with.

 

[Uncle_Leo]

Watching Warner tonight I reckon that’s how Jy sees himself.

 

[DunderHead]

Just needs to sharpen up his kicking. Still makes some dumb decisions with the ball which because he works hard and accumulates, occurs more often to him than others.

Some of those wedge hits into the forward fifty where he takes a bit off the ball, lands it in a huge pack to no one's advantage - I think he can do better than that. Needs to find a target and put it out in front.

 

[Roadrunner]

Don't think he is 100% committed in playing due to his failed trade attempt. Maybe he's just gave his 60% or less effort on the field. Put him in VFL

 

[hotchilli]

Don't think he is 100% committed in playing due to his failed trade attempt. Maybe he's just gave his 60% or less effort on the field. Put him in VFL

I don't think he's done anything this preseason to suggest he's not committed to giving his best effort.

 

[Gasometer]

Day after day after day after day after day. FMD.

Month after month after month after year after year. FMD.

 

[Gasometer]

Don't think he is 100% committed in playing due to his failed trade attempt. Maybe he's just gave his 60% or less effort on the field. Put him in VFL

What’s this based on? You in the know?

 

[Chip Scab1]

Watching Warner tonight I reckon that’s how Jy sees himself.

Jy identifies with being good, he just isn't.