*Mods please don't merge thread as this took time and effort to produce*
I appreciate it will be hard for some of you, hell as someone who pushed hard for the succession plan this isn't how I imagined or hoped it would turn out also but if you take all the emotion out of it and study the cold hard evidence then I'm afraid you can only come to the conclusion that the chances Buckley will ever become a Premiership coach are now minuscule.
If that's the case then I ask of you what's the point in continuing with him beyond this season?
Some might well still cling to the argument (hope) that history is made to be broken but let's be honest here the chances a coach of Collingwood will be the one to do something no other coach has in 100 years is the heart doing your thinking and not your head for mine.
History can be a cruel mistress also and while it can be broken it often repeats and insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
That is the moment in Collingwood history we have now reached IMO, the odds against Buckley are now stacked on 3 fronts and it'll take a miracle to see him ever raise the Premiership cup.
I'd rather move forward and put my hope in a new coach, with fresh ideas and a clean slate rather than require some divine intervention.
For the record and to be fair coaches like Ross Lyon and Brad Scott should also be ruled out as coaching candidates as they fail the same criteria as Buckley.
The Evidence.
Time period: VFL/AFL seasons 1920 to 2020
Premiership coaches: 45
Coaches who won their first Premiership beyond 9 seasons: 0
Coaches who won their first Premiership in their 9th season: 1
Coaches who missed 4 or more consecutive final series prior to coaching first Premiership: *2
*Mick Malthouse 1986 – 1989. Final 5 in place.
*Norm Smith 1949 – 1953. Two seasons as player/coach with Fitzroy. Final 4 in place.
Coaches who won Premierships as players: 27
Coaches who won Premierships as a player/coach only: 7
Coaches who weren’t Premiership players: 11
Time Period: AFL seasons 1990 to 2020
Premiership coaches: 14
Coaches who won Premierships as players: 9
Coaches who weren’t Premiership players: 5
Adam Simpson
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 5th year of coaching (2018)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2018: 1
Damien Hardwick
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 8th year of coaching (2017)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2017: 3
Luke Beveridge
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (2016)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2016: 0
John Longmire
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (2012)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2012: 0
Chris Scott
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 1st year of coaching (2011)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2011: N/A
Alastair Clarkson
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (2008)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2008: 2
Mark Thompson
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 8th year of coaching (2007)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2007: 3
John Worsfold
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 5th year of coaching (2006)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2006: 0
Paul Roos
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: *4th year of coaching (2005)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2005: 1
*Roos was appointed senior coach after round 12 of the 2002 season
Mark Williams
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 6th year of coaching (2004)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2004: 1
Malcolm Blight
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *8th year of coaching (1997)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1997: 1
*This includes his 1 season of being a player/coach at North Melbourne in 1981.
Denis Pagan
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1996)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1996: 0
Mick Malthouse
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 9th year of coaching (1992)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1992: *4
*Final 5 was in place during those 4 seasons
Leigh Matthews
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *5th year of coaching (1990)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1990: 2
*Matthews was appointed senior coach after round 3 of the 1986 season
Alan Joyce
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 1st year of coaching (1988)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1988: N/A
Robert Walls
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 7th year of coaching (1987)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1987: 1
Kevin Sheedy
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1984)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1984: 0
Tony Jewel
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1980)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1980: 1
Alex Jesaulenko
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1979)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1979: 0
David Parkin
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1978)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1978: 0
John Nicholls
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 1st year of coaching (1972)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1972: N/A
Ron Barassi
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1968)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1968: 2
Tom Hafey
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1967)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1967: 1
Alan Jeans
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 6th year of coaching (1966)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1966: 1
Bob Davis
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1963)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1963: 2
John Coleman
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1962)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1962: 1
John Kennedy
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1961)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1961: 1
Norm Smith
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *7th year of coaching (1955)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1955: **5
*This includes his 2 seasons as a player/coach with Fitzroy in 1949/50
**Final 4 in place during those 5 seasons. Includes 2 seasons as player/coach.
Charlie Sutton
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 4th year as player/coach (1954)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1954: 1
Phonse Kyne
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *4th year of coaching (1953)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1953: 1
*This includes his 1 season as player/coach in 1950
Reg Hickey
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 3rd year of coaching (1951)
3rd year as player/coach (1937)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1951: 1
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1937: 2
Perce Bentley
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 5th year of coaching (1945)
1st year as player/coach (1934)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1945: 1
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1934: N/A
Fred Hughson
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year as player/coach (1944)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1944: 0
Jack Dyer
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 3rd year as player/coach (1943)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1943: 0
Dick Reynolds
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 4th year as player/coach (1942)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1942: 1
Brighton Diggins
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1938)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1938: N/A
Jack Bisset
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1933)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1933: N/A
Frank Hughes
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 6th year of coaching (1932)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1932: 0
Charlie Clymo
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 1st season of coaching (1931)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1931: N/A
Jock McHale
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *2nd year of coaching (1919)
6th year as player/coach (1917)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1919: 0
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1917: 1
*McHale was only credited with 1 game played in both the 1918/20 seasons so I decided not to label him as a player/coach beyond 1917
Bert Chadwick
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 2nd year as player/coach (1926)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1926: 0
Cliff Rankin
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1925)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1925: N/A
Syd Barker
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 2nd year as player/coach (1923)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1923: 0
Vic Belcher
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *4th year of coaching (1922)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1922: 1
*This includes his 3 seasons as player/coach with South Melbourne between 1914/17
Dan Minogue
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1920)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1920: N/A
I appreciate it will be hard for some of you, hell as someone who pushed hard for the succession plan this isn't how I imagined or hoped it would turn out also but if you take all the emotion out of it and study the cold hard evidence then I'm afraid you can only come to the conclusion that the chances Buckley will ever become a Premiership coach are now minuscule.
If that's the case then I ask of you what's the point in continuing with him beyond this season?
Some might well still cling to the argument (hope) that history is made to be broken but let's be honest here the chances a coach of Collingwood will be the one to do something no other coach has in 100 years is the heart doing your thinking and not your head for mine.
History can be a cruel mistress also and while it can be broken it often repeats and insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
That is the moment in Collingwood history we have now reached IMO, the odds against Buckley are now stacked on 3 fronts and it'll take a miracle to see him ever raise the Premiership cup.
I'd rather move forward and put my hope in a new coach, with fresh ideas and a clean slate rather than require some divine intervention.
For the record and to be fair coaches like Ross Lyon and Brad Scott should also be ruled out as coaching candidates as they fail the same criteria as Buckley.
The Evidence.
Time period: VFL/AFL seasons 1920 to 2020
Premiership coaches: 45
Coaches who won their first Premiership beyond 9 seasons: 0
Coaches who won their first Premiership in their 9th season: 1
Coaches who missed 4 or more consecutive final series prior to coaching first Premiership: *2
*Mick Malthouse 1986 – 1989. Final 5 in place.
*Norm Smith 1949 – 1953. Two seasons as player/coach with Fitzroy. Final 4 in place.
Coaches who won Premierships as players: 27
Coaches who won Premierships as a player/coach only: 7
Coaches who weren’t Premiership players: 11
Time Period: AFL seasons 1990 to 2020
Premiership coaches: 14
Coaches who won Premierships as players: 9
Coaches who weren’t Premiership players: 5
Adam Simpson
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 5th year of coaching (2018)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2018: 1
Damien Hardwick
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 8th year of coaching (2017)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2017: 3
Luke Beveridge
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (2016)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2016: 0
John Longmire
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (2012)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2012: 0
Chris Scott
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 1st year of coaching (2011)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2011: N/A
Alastair Clarkson
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (2008)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2008: 2
Mark Thompson
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 8th year of coaching (2007)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2007: 3
John Worsfold
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 5th year of coaching (2006)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2006: 0
Paul Roos
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: *4th year of coaching (2005)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2005: 1
*Roos was appointed senior coach after round 12 of the 2002 season
Mark Williams
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 6th year of coaching (2004)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2004: 1
Malcolm Blight
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *8th year of coaching (1997)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1997: 1
*This includes his 1 season of being a player/coach at North Melbourne in 1981.
Denis Pagan
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1996)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1996: 0
Mick Malthouse
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 9th year of coaching (1992)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1992: *4
*Final 5 was in place during those 4 seasons
Leigh Matthews
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *5th year of coaching (1990)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1990: 2
*Matthews was appointed senior coach after round 3 of the 1986 season
Alan Joyce
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 1st year of coaching (1988)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1988: N/A
Robert Walls
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 7th year of coaching (1987)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1987: 1
Kevin Sheedy
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1984)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1984: 0
Tony Jewel
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1980)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1980: 1
Alex Jesaulenko
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1979)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1979: 0
David Parkin
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1978)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1978: 0
John Nicholls
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 1st year of coaching (1972)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1972: N/A
Ron Barassi
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1968)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1968: 2
Tom Hafey
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1967)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1967: 1
Alan Jeans
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 6th year of coaching (1966)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1966: 1
Bob Davis
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1963)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1963: 2
John Coleman
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1962)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1962: 1
John Kennedy
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1961)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1961: 1
Norm Smith
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *7th year of coaching (1955)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1955: **5
*This includes his 2 seasons as a player/coach with Fitzroy in 1949/50
**Final 4 in place during those 5 seasons. Includes 2 seasons as player/coach.
Charlie Sutton
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 4th year as player/coach (1954)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1954: 1
Phonse Kyne
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *4th year of coaching (1953)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1953: 1
*This includes his 1 season as player/coach in 1950
Reg Hickey
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 3rd year of coaching (1951)
3rd year as player/coach (1937)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1951: 1
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1937: 2
Perce Bentley
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 5th year of coaching (1945)
1st year as player/coach (1934)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1945: 1
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1934: N/A
Fred Hughson
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year as player/coach (1944)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1944: 0
Jack Dyer
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 3rd year as player/coach (1943)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1943: 0
Dick Reynolds
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 4th year as player/coach (1942)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1942: 1
Brighton Diggins
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1938)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1938: N/A
Jack Bisset
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1933)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1933: N/A
Frank Hughes
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 6th year of coaching (1932)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1932: 0
Charlie Clymo
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 1st season of coaching (1931)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1931: N/A
Jock McHale
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *2nd year of coaching (1919)
6th year as player/coach (1917)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1919: 0
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1917: 1
*McHale was only credited with 1 game played in both the 1918/20 seasons so I decided not to label him as a player/coach beyond 1917
Bert Chadwick
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 2nd year as player/coach (1926)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1926: 0
Cliff Rankin
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1925)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1925: N/A
Syd Barker
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 2nd year as player/coach (1923)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1923: 0
Vic Belcher
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *4th year of coaching (1922)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1922: 1
*This includes his 3 seasons as player/coach with South Melbourne between 1914/17
Dan Minogue
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1920)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1920: N/A
