AFL Player 13: Nik Cox - cleared to return! - 11/11

[Beerfish]

Contract Status: Out of contract 2026
My Boy Draft 2024: Pick 6, Rick Ross

 

[yodellinhank]

You don’t gotta hand it to dodoro but the talk at the time was about how beneficial it would be to have a bunch of talented draftees coming through together as a group. People were pointing to Melbourne as an example of how this can work really well.


Most of the talk about the quality of the draft was more around how there were a lot of unknowns rather than how shallow it was. I don’t think anyone really expected it to be as poor as it had turned out to be.

Clearly with the benefit of hindsight all of those picks should have been traded out but you can’t reasonably blame the club for that

Smells of Dodoro bargain fever though. You go over the history of when we have had "top" picks and it all seems to line up with junk drafts, and vice versa.

Doesn't take Einsteen to suspect that the reason teams traded picks rather than players or didn't want to get involved as a 3rd party is because it was widely perceived within the industry that the picks weren't as great as "top 10" would suggest.

 

[Howard Moon]

Can he still kick on both feet?

The way I see it, there's no point being ambidextrous if you don't want to get the ball first

 

[P Money]

Smells of Dodoro bargain fever though. You go over the history of when we have had "top" picks and it all seems to line up with junk drafts, and vice versa.

Doesn't take Einsteen to suspect that the reason teams traded picks rather than players or didn't want to get involved as a 3rd party is because it was widely perceived within the industry that the picks weren't as great as "top 10" would suggest.

I agree with Old Campaigner that there wasn't really a suggestion it was a shallow draft - more that it was so much less certain than any other draft year in the modern era, so the idea of using 3 top 10 picks was a major risk. But given Dodo's lack of self-awareness and over-inflated (and inexplicable) self-confidence I'm sure he thought he could pick the eyes out of it like he'd done in the first round of the previous 20 drafts...

 

[Old Campaigner]

I agree with Old Campaigner that there wasn't really a suggestion it was a shallow draft - more that it was so much less certain than any other draft year in the modern era, so the idea of using 3 top 10 picks was a major risk. But given Dodo's lack of self-awareness and over-inflated (and inexplicable) self-confidence I'm sure he thought he could pick the eyes out of it like he'd done in the first round of the previous 20 drafts...

The flip side to that is 2020 was the year we unambiguously went into rebuild mode and taking a bunch of high picks was seen as a great way to kick it off and bring in a core group to build around. My recollection is that the risks around the draft were acknowledged but were offset against the opportunity 3x top 10 picks presented.

The knowledge of people posting from the cheap seats on big footy is certainly not perfect but there weren’t many (possibly any) complaints at the time with the chosen course.

 

[P Money]

The flip side to that is 2020 was the year we unambiguously went into rebuild mode and taking a bunch of high picks was seen as a great way to kick it off and bring in a core group to build around. My recollection is that the risks around the draft were acknowledged but were offset against the opportunity 3x top 10 picks presented.

The knowledge of people posting from the cheap seats on big footy is certainly not perfect but there weren’t many (possibly any) complaints at the time with the chosen course.

I get what you're saying but not being behind the BF consensus isn't a pass mark for a club/list boss

 

[IHurley]

It works both ways.

If there was a general feeling from recruiters that the 2020 draft was a bad place to be then Dodoro would have had a hard time trading out the picks for anything of value in future drafts. Considering how bad we were and who we lost in 2020, there would have been rioting if he had traded out three top ten picks for three picks possibly in the teens in 2021.

Nobody ever knows in advance how strong a draft crop will be so even though the draft order in 2020 was more uncertain than normal, there wouldn't have been any expectation that the overall talent was as bad as it turned out to be. If the overall talent pool had been as strong as normal, three top ten picks should have been sufficient to garner two decent players at least.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I get what you're saying but not being behind the BF consensus isn't a pass mark for a club/list boss

I know, hence why I was at pains to point out it is imperfect.

What I’m getting at is there wasn’t any widely held belief within clubland or more broadly that it was a poor draft that clubs would be better off trading out of. The pick trading that year doesn’t seem to indicate clubs were placing excessive value on future picks either. It’s very easy to look at four seasons of football and say now it was crap but decision makers at the time didn’t have the benefit of that hindsight.

It would be different if we’d traded in a bunch of 2020 first round picks rival clubs were dumping - that would indicate they knew something we didn’t and should raise questions

 

[P Money]

I know, hence why I was at pains to point out it is imperfect.

What I’m getting at is there wasn’t any widely held belief within clubland or more broadly that it was a poor draft that clubs would be better off trading out of. The pick trading that year doesn’t seem to indicate clubs were placing excessive value on future picks either. It’s very easy to look at four seasons of football and say now it was crap but decision makers at the time didn’t have the benefit of that hindsight.

It would be different if we’d traded in a bunch of 2020 first round picks rival clubs were dumping - that would indicate they knew something we didn’t and should raise questions

Yeah I agree for the most part. I do think that situation was a little different to most though in that it's not pure hindsight of the draft, there was clear information to everyone that that draft was particularly speculative (hence other clubs likely not coming at us with strong offers to get into the upper ranks of draft picks).

I guess I just have the expectation that those in charge of the club I support will make savvy decisions - popular with the fans or not - that are ahead of the general views or knowledge of the average punter. I think/hope we're starting to see that with Rosa/Vozzo; many fans criticised moves they made to trade up for Caddy and trade out of the first round last year ahead of drafting Kako. Those decisions show foresight and strategic thinking, and while only time will tell if they were wise, they're certainly a departure from the approach for the past 20 years.

 

[FlyingV]

On Cox I think an extended spell in the VFL might do him some good and help build some confidence. If that doesn’t work then his papers may be stamped

Yeah, I really want to see if he can dominate a VFL game. In the past it seems like he shower glimpses and then went straight back into the 1s. What does a dominant game from Cox in the VFL look like? I actually have no idea!?

 

[jannissary]

think this season will be make or break for him. i think it'll end up being break unfortunately

 

[ant555]

lol

the 3 top 10 pick 2020 draft is turning into a real disaster isn't it.

No one could have predicted the Reid issues. Personally I think that we brought part of it on ourselves by pushing him too early.

Cox was always a bit of a speculative pick. I liked him based on how he played as a defender but the lesson for me was the sample size was too small due to Covid. Maybe if we did not rush him onto a wing and we took our time with him things may have been different but his issue is he is not big on body contact after sides started to put physical pressure on him in his first year after a good start. He looks like a bust. At best a 200cm flanker.

Perkins I am going to post about in his thread.

It does look like 2020 will go down as an average to poor draft.

 

[Milanista28]

I'm glad he's contracted for 2026, Hope he can play 40 games across this and next season, not fussed which level a mix of seniors and VFL is ok, he just needs to play and build confidence in his body, I'm going to stay on his bandwagon till the end.

 

[chambo00]

Just doesn't look to have the body to stand up to the AFL rigours unfortunately, not sure if he has it mentally either.

Bust, but move on.

 

[crackers65]

Just doesn't look to have the body to stand up to the AFL rigours unfortunately, not sure if he has it mentally either.

Bust, but move on.

A full year in VFL to build up his body and at least show some sense of playing with physical contact should be his lot this year. Hasn’t put on any size or grown any balls in four years so I think he’s closer to delisting over playing again. A classic Essendon list clogger.

 

[andleanback]

On Cox I think an extended spell in the VFL might do him some good and help build some confidence. If that doesn’t work then his papers may be stamped

Is everyone forgetting that he played some half decent footy in the forward half last year?

 

[Old Campaigner]

Is everyone forgetting that he played some half decent footy in the forward half last year?

Yes

 

[Calthorpe14]

Just doesn't look to have the body to stand up to the AFL rigours unfortunately, not sure if he has it mentally either.

Bust, but move on.

As much as this may well be true, we’ve done him no favours at all IMO. He’s been in desperate need to be settled into a position and develop his game, but we’ve been sucked in to his “versatility” and now he’s a master of none.

 

[MiguelM]

Is everyone forgetting that he played some half decent footy in the forward half last year?

Yeah, I thought we would have plonked him in the square much more, esp after the Gold Coast game. Hard match up there.

 

[bombreys]

Is everyone forgetting that he played some half decent footy in the forward half last year?

Think that’s being very generous - 2 games of kicking multiple goals out of 20. Not exactly a stop the presses type stat

 

[Vander18]

Think that’s being very generous - 2 games of kicking multiple goals out of 20. Not exactly a stop the presses type stat

I’d say there was clear improvement.

The concussions are a worry though. Had that very soft spot be late last season and if I’m reading right he had another one in December and again in 2025? If that’s the sequence then I’d say we have a problem.

Hoping I have this wrong.

 

[ant555]

I’d say there was clear improvement.

The concussions are a worry though. Had that very soft spot be late last season and if I’m reading right he had another one in December and again in 2025? If that’s the sequence then I’d say we have a problem.

Hoping I have this wrong.

Both last year but he has been on a limited program as he had a few longer term effects from the pre Christmas one. Precaution is in place as well because it was two in four months.

 

[Bipolar Bear]

think this season will be make or break for him. i think it'll end up being break unfortunately

Agree but I think he'll make it.

 

[MiguelM]

Both last year but he has been on a limited program as he had a few longer term effects from the pre Christmas one. Precaution is in place as well because it was two in four months.

Maybe following Boxing type guidelines where the second one within a year is 90 days mandatory lay off.

 

[ant555]

Maybe following Boxing type guidelines where the second one within a year is 90 days mandatory lay off.

By the look of it that could well be the case. Lots of light running and solo kicking drills plus group handball. The amount of running looks to be stepping up as two weeks ago he was only out of the hanger for around 20 minutes. This week he was out for a few hours doing various things including two 30 minute light running sessions. It looks like he may be ready for VFL round 1 or 2 which is round 2 / 3 of the AFL season.

 

[gillon]

I really hope Scott doesn’t gift him 20 games because he’s young and tall.