17yo draft vs normal

[Slattery_20]

Lot of talk, and excitement, about the "17yo picks" that GWS can deal.
Facts are, only for a quarter of a draft year are eligible, and they can't play for a year, and the risks of picking a kid a year out are higher, rather than lower - all of which has got me thinking:

What's more valuable to your club?

Pick 8, first round
Or
Pick 2, '17yo draft'

{NB pick 8 was chosen as, all else being equal, the 2nd best of a quarter of the pool = 8th best of a full pool, feel free to discuss or add to this}

 

[Jade]

You have to have faith in your recruiting staffs ability to 'project' the capacities of a 17 year old, but I'd take the 17yo pick.

You can really target a specific player and not be constrained by the luck of the draw, and begin developing them a full year early.

 

[Scodog10]

The pick in the mini draft is more valuable to us, because right at this stage we don't need to look at finding the young talent straight away we can afford to be patient and wait the extra year or two for them to come on.

It's an interesting situation because normally its quality rather than quantity (i.e three average players doesn't equal 1 above average player), but with GWS they need hardened bodies of which we have some on the fringe that we may be prepared to trade in Macaffer, Goldsack and McCarthy. Those 3 wouldn't be a hope in hell of landing us pick 8, but they may be more valuable at GWS which would at least give us a chance at the mini draft pick 2 (not a great one but it'd at least be a start).

 

[Slattery_20]

You have to have faith in your recruiting staffs ability to 'project' the capacities of a 17 year old, but I'd take the 17yo pick.

You can really target a specific player and not be constrained by the luck of the draw, and begin developing them a full year early.

But you are constrained because you're only picking from (actually less than, given 'over-agers') a quarter of the available, projected pool and, also, you haven't had as good a look at them.

Think about it this way - any poll about "who's going to be the best of year X draft", we say 'too early', even as 19, or 20yos.
17yos = ????

 

[Jade]

But you are constrained because you're only picking from (actually less than, given 'over-agers') a quarter of the available, projected pool and, also, you haven't had as good a look at them.

Think about it this way - any poll about "who's going to be the best of year X draft", we say 'too early', even as 19, or 20yos.
17yos = ????

Yeah understand that, but as I said, it's the capacity to target a specific player that I find attractive.

Joe Daniher is a good example. Think we are all set on taking this kid, and are stoked to do it.

If we are equally excited about another 17yo, say this O'meara kid, and confident in his abilities, this is an easier route to getting him than say waiting for the 2012 draft and hoping he slips through.

If you wanted to take a 'best available' approach, the national draft is the way to go.

 

[Slattery_20]

I don't know anywhere near enough about O'Meara vs Whitfield vs Daniher vs... because I haven't watched any of them.
I'm looking at it from the perspective I assume a list manager would, ie 'which would give us the best chance to improve the list?'.
I'm pretty sure they wouldn't nail players down to picks until way later in the year.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

If O'Meara was available in this draft he would be a top 3 chance ahead of Wingard. Crouch isn't to far behind O'Meara/Wingard and is another of the u17 players likely to nominate.

If both do then these are the likely 2 picks if GWS only release 2 this year.

So yeah I would rate both ahead of pick 8, regardless of whether they can play in 2012 or not.

 

[Jonts]

If O'Meara, Crouch Kennedy and Grundy were in this yr's draft they would all be top 10 maybe not Kennedy but still top 15 for sure

I Think O'meara would push Wingard out of the top 3

Crouch would be pick 7-10

Grundy would overtake Longer as the best Ruck in the draft and then be 4-7 range

and Kennedy would be 9-15

So really unless your getting pick 4 in the mini draft (presuming they go in the order i believe it would) then it would be worth more than pick 8

 

[Slattery_20]

Crows out of the 17yo bidding:

“You've got to be careful what you're paying out for a guy, who can't even play next year,” Crows football manager Phil Harper said.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/asking-price-too-rich-for-crows/story-e6frf9io-1226094296905

I know Crows haven't ever actively wanted to trade their players, though.

 

[Hodgepodge]

The Hawks cleaned up the 2008 draft picking mostly 17 year olds.

Shiels, Schoenmakers, Savage, Lowden, Lisle, Breust, among the picks.

 

[Slattery_20]

The Hawks cleaned up the 2008 draft picking mostly 17 year olds.

Shiels, Schoenmakers, Savage, Lowden, Lisle, Breust, among the picks.

And with 3 years of hindsight: Savage and Shiels alone would at least be top 30 material in the '09 draft, Breust & Schoe look alright but nothing spec, Lisle/Lowden unseen.
Hit and miss.

 

[Jonts]

Crows out of the 17yo bidding:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/asking-price-too-rich-for-crows/story-e6frf9io-1226094296905

I know Crows haven't ever actively wanted to trade their players, though.

mmm Didn't they pick up Patrick when he stayed in Melbourne for a yr?